Финансовая среда предпринимательства, предпринимательские риски. Учебное пособие
.pdfConsider now in detail the special features of each method. Risk avoidance
a) Avoidance of risk
On the next slides we will look in detail the method definitions, its disadvantages and conditions of use
1.The essence of risk avoidance is to create loss-free economic conditions
2.Conditions for application of the method
3.Shortcoming of the method – giving up profit associated with risky activities
b)The essence of risk avoidance is to create loss-free
economic conditions
1.Discontinuation of production causing a risk
2.Giving up risky business areas
3.Selection of new risk-free activities
c)Condition for application of the method
1.Giving up one type of risk should not lead to other risks
2.Risk level is too high
41
Methods of risk treatment
Risk avoidance
The essence of risk avoidance is to create lossfree economic conditions
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discontinuation |
|
|
Giving up |
|
Selection of new |
||||||||||
of production, |
|
|
risky business |
|
risk-free |
||||||||||
causing a risk |
|
|
|
|
|
|
activities |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conditions for application of the method |
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
Giving up one type of risk |
|
|
Risk level is too high |
||||||||||||
should not lead to other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
risks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shortcoming of method – giving up profit |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
associated with risky activities |
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fig. 5.2 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
42
The main task is to find sources of necessary resources to cover the possible losses.
There are two methods of risk retention – risk acceptance with all financial implication and self-insurance.
The main task is to find Risk retention sources of required resources
to cover possible losses
Fig. 5.3
Risk acceptance with unpredictable financial implications. Risk acceptance - with all financial implication:
-consolidation of “economically dangerous” zones venture capital;
-balancing of assets and liabilities;
-rationing methods;
-system of coordination in decision –making process.
Risk acceptance - with all financial implications
-consolidation of “economically dangerous” zones venture capital;
-balancing of assets and liabilities;
-rationing methods;
-system of coordination in decision – making process.
Fig. 5.4
43
Self-insurance - Establishment of risk funds, or isolated loss-recovery funds at the expense of some part of working capital.
Advantages
Disadvantages
Self-insurance
1.Total control over the fund (as distinct from conventional insurance)
2.Saving on insurance premium
3.Significantly lower time for damage compensation
4.Increased responsibility and interest of the enterprise’s employees in risk control and loss management
1.The possibility of inefficient spending of working capital due to its withdrawal from circulation
2.It is hard to determine the optimal size of the fund
3.Additional costs for managing selfinsurance programs
1.Further , we will move to the third risk management group, namely risk reduction methods
2.In the beginning we give a definition of this group and the main directions of it’s impact
3.Then we will consider in detail such methods as diversification, limitation and increasing information level
Fig. 5.5
44
Methods of risk treatment
|
|
|
Lower probability and size of |
||
Risk reduction |
|
||||
|
losses |
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fig. 5.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
Risk reduction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.The distribution of financial responsibility among partners (joint-stock companies, exchange of shares, etc.).
2.Disaggregation or consolidation of risk.
3.Risk distribution over territory.
4.Diversification of types of activity, sales markets (expansion of the circle of partners).
5.Avoidance of dangerous factors.
6.Decreasing probability of occurrence of undesirable events.
7.Reduction of actual losses.
8.Reduction of time spent in the risk zone
Methods of risk treatment
|
|
It is a process of allocating |
Diversification |
|
|
|
invested funds among different |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
capital investment objects |
|
|
|
Fig. 5.7
45
There are several varieties of diversification
Diversification –
1.Diversification of business is the use of alternative sources of income from various activities.
2.Diversification of the securities portfolio is optimization of the set of shares, reducing investment risks but not reducing the level of income.
3.Diversification of direct investment programs is to minimize the probability of big losses.
4.Diversification of credit portfolio allows to minimize the credit risk.
5.Diversification of currency baskets allows to minimize currency risks due to selection of several currencies.
6.Diversification of the financial market is organization of work on several segments of financial market.
7.Vertical diversification is the allocation of resources among different types of activities.
8.Territorial diversification is distribution of resources among different business entities.
Methods of risk treatment
Limitation of the concentration of financial risk-means the
Limitations establishment of a system of regulatory limitations to reduce risk
degree
Fig. 5.8
46
Limitation –
1.Limitation by period of investment of borrowed funds, etc.
2.Limitation by structure – the share of individual costs in the total volume, the share of each type of securities in the total value of the portfolio, the share of preferential stock in the total volume of the emission, the share of borrowed funds used in economic activities, etc.
3.Limitation by efficiency - establishment of minimum level of profitability of the project, etc.
|
|
1. |
Plays an important role in risk |
|
Improving |
|
|
management |
|
the level of |
|
2. |
Allows to quickly make the right |
|
information |
|
|
financial and commercial |
|
support |
|
|
decisions |
|
|
|
3. |
Leads to lower losses and higher |
|
|
||||
|
|
|
profits |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fig. 5.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Methods of risk treatment
Transfer of risk - Means the transfer of the responsibility for risk to third parties while maintaining the current level of risk.
47
|
|
1. |
Business insurance |
||||
|
|
2. |
Non – insured risk transfer |
||||
|
|
3. |
Hedging |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Contracts |
( |
construction |
||
Transfer of risk |
|||||||
|
|
contracts, leases, contracts for |
|||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
storage and |
transportation of |
|||
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
goods, contract |
guarantee and |
|||
|
|
|
factoring agreement) |
||||
|
|
5. |
Procedural configurations |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fig. 5.10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Insurance
Insurance – a common method of reducing risk degree by transferring financial responsibility for the risks to the insurance company for a fee in the following insurance cases:
1.Bussiness interruptions
2.Unexpected expenses
3.Breach of contractual obligations by insured party
4.Legal expenses incurred by insured party
Methods of risk treatment
Basic conditions for determining insurance risks
Insurance
High probability of occurrence of
Impossibility to recover financial losses from own financial resources
Fig. 5.11
48
|
|
|
|
Insurance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Insurance benefits |
|
|
|
Insurance restrictions |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
Compensat- |
|
Lower |
|
|
Insurance |
|
Impossibility |
|
||||||
ion in case |
|
uncertainty |
|
|
premium |
|
to insure |
|
||||||
|
of |
|
|
|
|
|
|
exceeds |
|
certain types |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
unexpected |
|
|
|
|
|
permissible |
|
of risks |
|
|||||
losses |
|
|
|
|
|
|
loss for |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
business |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fig. 5.12 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
49
Hedging
Hedging an increase
Hedging a decrease
Methods of risk treatment
Hedging
A mechanism to reduce the risk of financial losses, based on the use of derivative securities (forward and futures contracts, option swaps etc.)
Stock exchange transaction during purchasing of futures contracts or options. It is used when it is necessary to insure against the possibility of increasing prices in the future
Stock exchange transaction during sale of fixed – term contact. Reduction of the risk caused by the uncertainty of price in the market is realized by the purchase or sale of futures contract, which allows fixing the price and making income or expenses more predictable
Fig. 5.13
Hedging using options allows neutralizing financial risks coming from operations with securities, currency, real assets:
1)Hedging with the right to buy at a specified price;
2)Hedging for sale at an agreed price;
3)Hedging on the basis of a double option that gives synchronous right to buy or sell relevant papers at a specified price.
50
