Methodology of Scientific Research (Методология научного исследования). Учебное пособие

hypothesis it is because they lack resources. In order to make solid facts you are to gather data characterizing the level of economic development of these countries, their geographic position and population, natural resources, etc.

The final step of the scientific method is to test rigorously your prediction. Do remember, you cannot «prove» your hypothesis. You can only fail to disprove it.

This is an example of how the scientific method is used in everyday research and hypothesis testing but do not forget that scientific method is also the basis of creating theories and laws.

Hypothesis. The scientific method requires a hypothesis to be eliminated if experiments repeatedly contradict predictions. No matter how great a hypothesis sounds, it is only as good as its ability to predict consistently experimental results. It should also be noted that a theory or hypothesis is not meaningful if it is not quantitative and testable. If a theory does not allow predictions and experimental research to confirm these predictions, than it is not a scientific theory.

Now let us see what is a hypothesis and which role it plays in scientific research

A hypothesis is a 'small' cause and effect statement about a specific set of circumstances. It represents a belief that a researcher possesses a concrete idea before conducting a satisfactory number of experiments. These experiments could potentially either prove or disprove that idea. For example, you open your refrigerator at home and are greeted with a horrible sour smell. You decide that the milk must have gone bad. This is your hypothesis. It is based on the phenomenon you are observing right now (sour smell) as well as the knowledge from your past experience (bad milk has a sour smell). You test your hypothesis by opening the container of milk and smelling it. You find that the milk doesn't smell sour after all, so you must come up with another hypothesis (maybe it is the leftover of stewed meat from the last week!).

There is a considerable difference between a hypothesis, and a theory or law. They have very distinct connotations in the

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scientific community, though in everyday language people sometimes are used to apply these terms interchangeably,

A theory or law in the world of science is a hypothesis, or many hypotheses, which have undergone rigorous tests and have never been disproved. There is no set number of tests or a set length of time in which a hypothesis can become a theory or a law. A hypothesis becomes a theory or law when it is the general consensus of the scientific community that it should be so. Theories and laws are not as easily discarded as hypotheses.

Misapplications of the Scientific Method

A common error encountered by people who claim to use the scientific method is a lack of testing. A hypothesis brought about by common observations or common sense does not have scientific validity as stated above, even though a good debater may be quite convincing as he exposes the merits of his theory, but logical arguments are not an acceptable replacement for experimental testing.

Although the purpose of the scientific method is to eliminate researcher bias, an investigation of the raw data from an experiment is always a good idea. Researchers sometimes toss out data that does not support their hypothesis. This isn't necessarily done with the intent of deception, it is sometimes done because the researcher so passionately believes in his idea he assumes unsupportive data must have been obtained in error. Other times, outside forces (such as the corporation sponsoring and conducting the research) may put extreme pressure on the researcher to get specific results.

The best way for the scientific community, and the general public, to deal with these errors is to promote multiple, independent experiments. We are all familiar with «breaking news» (that seems to break nearly every day!) about a new miracle out dollar or euro, or yean. In most cases, this «breaking news» was

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released by a single source – usually a source with financial stakes in the new miracle. Look for multiple sources to confirm a hypothesis before you hand your money over for a new product or a new market. If possible, also try to discover where the funding came from in these experiments. You may have three different reports; all confirming that American economy is close to collapse to release you from dollar reserves. The most effective currency you are recommended to have and the economy to invest into is Britain or China. Remember that all the sources you believe in might be guided by the same political circles. Does it seem strange to you? You may even want to raise an eyebrow in surprise.

Questions for discussion

1.What is scientific method of research?

2.History of the scientific method. Who invented the scientific method?

3.Why do we need to use the scientific method in researching economic problems?

4.Which steps should we take and why?

5.What is hypothesis and which role it plays in scientific research?

6.What is the difference between hypotheses, theory, laws of theory?

Written assignment

Find facts and data proving or disproving that countries with less resources are more inclined to innovation development. Analyze readiness of your countries for innovation.

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2.Therefore they are very efficient in terms of the researcher's use of time and effort. That is, you can distribute hundreds of them to students, colleagues or clients and get them completed and returned in the time it takes to set up and do half a dozen interviews. Questionnaires are also, usually, quicker to code and analyze that semi-structured or unstructured interviews.

3.Questionnaires are a means of standardizing the data collection process, i.e. everyone who completes it is being asked exactly the same questions in the same sequence [but of course this does not mean that they will choose to answer every question].

4.The self-completion questionnaire may provide the respondent with time to reflect on the questions before answering them [especially if they can complete them in their own time].

5.Respondents may feel that they can say what they really think if the questionnaire can be completed in privacy and anonymously [especially if the researcher is known to them or might be thought to have a vested interest in their answers].

Potential disadvantages

1.There are hidden costs in the use of questionnaires. It may be a quicker method of collecting data and the format may facilitate data analyzed but the design of a good questionnaire with clear instructions and unambiguous questions can take a long time. Semi-structured and unstructured interview schedules can be developed more quickly because the researcher gets immediate feedback from the respondents if they do not understand the questions.

2.You may not always know that your carefully constructed questionnaire is not asking the 'right' questions until you start analyzing the data, i.e. when it is too late to do anything about it. If they have sufficient time researchers try to get round this problem by piloting the questionnaire with a small group drawn from the population they are interested in before they make the final adjustments to it. But this is time consuming and

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practitioners doing research on a part-time basis do not always feel that they can spare the time to do this. Pilot your questionnaire if you can. At the very least send it to some colleagues and your tutor for comment.

3.Once you have sent out the questionnaire you have little control over the situation. Suppose only a few completed ones are returned, i.e. what researchers refer to as a low response rate. What can you do? You can try several things to increase the likelihood of a good response rate:

1) Get a 'captive' population or sample to complete it, i.e. ask students to complete it during a seminar or clients to complete it in your presence;

2) Explain at the beginning of the questionnaire (or in an accompanying letter if it is a postal questionnaire) why their responses are important and what use will be made of the data;

3) Make the questionnaire as user friendly and attractive as possible by using different font sizes, color printing, attractive layout and provide as many opportunities as possible to tick boxes or ring code numbers so that it can be filled in as quickly as possible;

4) Distribute reminders perhaps with a second copy of the questionnaire.

4.Avoid a lot of open-ended questions. As we have seen, one of the advantages of a self-completion questionnaire is that it pre-codes people's responses into a standardized set of answers to facilitate data analysis. Why lose that advantage? If you feel the need to have a lot of open-ended questions perhaps you have opted for the wrong method. There are hidden costs in the use of questionnaires. It may be a quicker method of collecting data and the format may facilitate data analyzed but the design of a good questionnaire with clear instructions and unambiguous questions can take a long time. Semi-structured and unstructured interview schedules can be developed more quickly because the researcher gets immediate feedback from the respondents if they do not understand the questions.

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5.You may not always know that your carefully constructed questionnaire is not asking the 'right' questions until you start analyzing the data, i.e. when it is too late to do anything about it. If they have sufficient time researchers try to get round this problem by piloting the questionnaire with a small group drawn from the population they are interested in before they make the final adjustments to it. But this is time consuming and practitioners doing research on a part-time basis do not always feel that they can spare the time to do this. Pilot your questionnaire if you can. At the very least send it to some colleagues and your tutor for comment.

6.Once you have sent out the questionnaire you have little control over the situation. Suppose only a few completed ones are returned, i.e. what researchers refer to as a low response rate. What can you do? You can try several things to increase the likelihood of a good response rate:

1) Get a 'captive' population or sample to complete it, i.e. ask students to complete it during a seminar or clients to complete it in your presence;

2) Explain at the beginning of the questionnaire (or in an accompanying letter if it is a postal questionnaire) why their responses are important and what use will be made of the data;

3) Make the questionnaire as user friendly and attractive as possible by using different font sizes, color printing, attractive layout and provide as many opportunities as possible to tick boxes or ring code numbers so that it can be filled in as quickly as possible;

4) Distribute reminders perhaps with a second copy of the questionnaire.

7.Avoid a lot of open-ended questions. As we have seen, one of the advantages of a self-completion questionnaire is that it pre-codes people's responses into a standardized set of answers to facilitate data analysis. Why lose that advantage? If you feel the need to have a lot of open-ended questions perhaps you have opted for the wrong method.

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Questions to discuss

1.What is a questionnaire? Its advantages and disadvan-

tages.

2.In which situations can it be used?

Written assignment

Design a questionnaire to find out if your country is leaving recession.

Interwiews

What is an interview? It is a face-to-face conversation (or by telephone or video conference) which is structured around a set of questions, topics or themes. The degree to which it is structured can vary greatly. It can be highly structured (and then usually it looks like a questionnaire or checklist but administered by the researcher rather than self-completed). It can be semi-structured, mainly comprising a set of open-ended questions but often with follow-up probes and prompts; or it can be relatively unstructured – a list of themes or topics or headings which can be adjusted to each individual interviewee.

Potential advantages

1.Provides an opportunity for the interviewee to give a more detailed response than in a questionnaire.

2.The data will usually be richer and fuller of contextual information than the data provided by a questionnaire.

3.The data will be collected in a natural setting. For example, interviewing a lecturer immediately after a seminar will probably generate more data than a questionnaire which could

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be completed at any time. There is scope for the interviewer to cross-reference to the seminar, particularly if he or she also observed it [an example of triangulation at work].

4.An interview is a particularly useful tool if you are trying to understand the experiences and actions of each individual respondent. The more unique each respondent's experiences are the more important it is to use a research technique which acknowledges and elicits that uniqueness.

5.An interview is also a useful method if the respondents are not very literate or not used to expressing their views on paper.

6.It provides an opportunity to probe respondents' views in ways that might be difficult to plan for in advance.

7.It provides the researcher with an opportunity to also observe and record the non-verbal behavior of the respondent as well.

Potential disadvantages

1.The interview is not necessarily a cost effective method for a researcher who does not have any help in collecting data from a relatively large sample or population of respondents.

2.The full transcription of interviews takes a lot of time. A one-hour tape recorded interview takes about 8–10 hours to transcribe.

3.If you want to it is possible to quantify some of the answers (e.g. the number of respondents who answered this question positively or negatively) but other methods might be more appropriate for this purpose.

4.Good interviewing requires expertise and experience. It is not an easy option for the inexperienced researcher. It requires, for example, good listening skills; body language that encourages the interviewee to relax and talk; a capacity to ask questions, perhaps take notes and yet maintain eye contact; an

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ability to prompt people who are not very responsive; knowing just how long to allow a silence to continue before intervening; an ability to probe sensitive areas and issues; being able to 'think on your feet' and be flexible in your questioning e.g. to recognize that someone has just answered 3 of your questions in one response and therefore being able to instantly adjust your schedule of questions accordingly to being able to decide on-the-spot whether an interviewee is leading you down a blind alley and needs to be brought back to the sequence of questions on your schedule or is raising interesting issues and should be encouraged to continue. In other words, interviewing is not a soft option. It requires planning (including planning for unexpected contingencies) and it requires skill.

5. There is always a high risk with interviews that the researcher will unduly influence the responses of the interviewee: through the way the questions are asked, the researcher's body language and manner, the interviewer's position of authority in the interviewee's institution or vice versa (a potential problem in practitioner research).

Tips for an interviewer

1.Once you have explained what the interview is all about and why you are interviewing the respondent try one or two 'warm-up' questions to establish a good rapport.

2.Listen, listen, listen! You can lose rapport if you ask someone a question which they have already answered when replying to an earlier question. Also you may want to crossreference the answer to one question again the answers given to earlier questions, e.g. 'Earlier in the interview you said that...'.

3.Do not be afraid to leave out a question if you think it is not relevant to a particular interviewee.

4.If your interviewee is talkative and giving you a lot of useful information do not hesitate to change the sequence of

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