Шумпетеровские чтения. Schumpeterian readings

УДК 330.354: 001.895

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Всборник вошли материалы 5-й Международной научно-практической конференции «Шумпетеровские чтения», состоявшейся 19–20 ноября 2015 года. Конференция выступает базовой площадкой обмена научным и практическим опытом научно-исследовательского центра «Управление инновациями», активно функционирующего на базе кафедры «Менеджмент и маркетинг» Пермского национального исследовательского политехнического университета под научным руководством академика РАН А.И. Татаркина. С 2014 года конференция включена как плановое мероприятие в программу развития инновационного территориального кластера ракетного двигателестроения «Технополис “Новый Звездный”».

Вматериалах отражены некоторые теоретические и практические вопросы инновационного развития экономики, в том числе по заявленным темам этого года: взаимодействие науки, образования, бизнесаивласти, а такжетехнологииформированияинновационных компетенций субъектов развития.

Предназначено для широкого круга читателей, включая научных работников, преподавателей, представителей органов государственной власти и местного самоуправления, руководителей организаций различных правовых форм, аспирантов и студентов экономических специальностей.

Конференция проведена при финансовой поддержке Министерства экономического развития Российской Федерации в рамках действия Постановления Правительства Пермского края «Об утверждении программы мероприятий по развитию инновационного территориального кластера ракетного двигателестроения “Технополис "Новый звездный"” на 2014–2016 годы» № 992-п от 15.09.2014.

Программный комитет SR:

Е.В. Попов член-корреспондент РАН, д-р экон. наук, д-р физ.-мат. наук, профессор, главный ученый секретарь Уральского отделения РАН, председатель Программного комитета (Россия, Екатеринбург)

С.В. Кортов д-р экон. наук, доцент, проректор по инновационной деятельности Уральского федерального университета им. первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина, зам. председателя Программного комитета (Россия, Екатеринбург)

А.П. Андруник д-р пед. наук, профессор кафедры менеджмента и маркетинга Пермского национального исследовательского политехнического университета (Россия, Пермь)

Г.А. Гершанок д-р экон. наук, профессор Пермского национального исследовательского политехнического университета (Россия, Пермь)

И.В. Елохова д-р экон. наук, доцент, зав. кафедрой экономики и финансов Пермского национального исследовательского политехнического университета (Россия, Пермь)

С.В. Комаров д-р филос. наук, профессор Пермского национального исследовательского политехнического университета (Россия, Пермь)

А.В. Молодчик д-р экон. наук, зав. кафедрой менеджмента и маркетинга Пермского национального исследовательского политехнического университета (Россия, Пермь)

В.Л. Попов д-р техн. наук, профессор Пермского национального исследовательского политехнического университета (Россия, Пермь)

В.А. Харитонов д-р техн. наук, профессор, зав. кафедрой строительного инжиниринга и материаловедения Пермского национального исследовательского политехнического университета (Россия, Пермь)

И.А. Эсаулова д-р экон. наук, профессор Пермского национального исследовательского политехнического университета (Россия, Пермь)

Сборник материалов конференции включен в базу данных национальной информационноаналитической системы «Российский индекс научного цитирования».

Совет учредителей SR:

Х. Хануш – д-р экономики, профессор, генеральный секретарь Международного общества Й.А. Шумпетера (Германия, Аугсбург)

А.И. Татаркин – академик РАН, д-р экон. наук, профессор, директор Института экономики Уральского отделения РАН (Россия, Екатеринбург)

А.А. Ташкинов – д-р физ.-мат. наук, профессор, ректор Пермского национального исследовательского политехническогоуниверситета(Россия, Пермь)

Г.П. Тушнолобов – председатель Правительства Пермского края (Россия, Пермь)

С.П. Мясоедов – д-р соц. наук, профессор, президент Российской ассоциации бизнес-образования (Россия, Москва)

А.В. Молодчик – д-р экон. наук, профессор, директор Института повышения квалификации – РМЦПК (Россия, Пермь)

К.П. Хмарук – генеральный директор ОАО «Корпорации развития Пермского края» (Россия, Пермь)

Организационный комитет SR:

Н.Б. Акатов – д-р экон. наук, доцент, президент Межрегиональной ассоциации преподавателей МВА – РАБО, председатель оргкомитета конференции (Россия, Пермь)

М.М. Кустова – канд. экон. наук, зам. руководителя Президентской программы Пермского национального исследовательскогополитехническогоуниверситета, координатор конференции(Россия, Пермь)

В.П. Горшенин – д-р экон. наук, профессор, директор МВА-центра Южно-Уральского государственного технического университета (Россия, Челябинск)

Д.Й. Димитракиев – д-р инж., директор Высшего международного училища Технического университета Варны (Болгария, Варна)

А.И. Дружинин – д-р экон. наук, директор бизнес-школы Уральского федерального университета им. первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина (Россия, Екатеринбург)

В.Н. Лазарев – д-р экон. наук, профессор, зав. кафедрой экономики и менеджмента Ульяновского государственного технического университета (Россия, Ульяновск)

Л.А. Малышева – д-р экон. наук, доцент, зам. директора бизнес-школы Уральского федерального университета им. первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина (Россия, Екатеринбург)

В.Д. Козлов – д-р экон. наук, профессор, директор бизнес-школы Green City Нижегородского региональногоинститутауправленияиэкономикиагропромышленногокомплекса(Россия, НижнийНовгород)

О.С. Сухарев – д-р экон. наук, профессор, зав. сектором институционального анализа экономической динамики Института экономики РАН (Россия, Москва)

А.Г. Теслинов – д-р техн. наук, профессор Международного института менеджмента «ЛИНК» (Россия, Москва)

А.А. Шишкин – зам. генерального директора по персоналу ПАО «Протон-ПМ» (Россия, Пермь)

А.В. Попов – зам. генерального директора по персоналу АО «Авиационные редуктора и трансмиссии – Пермские моторы» (Россия, Пермь)

И.П. Медведев – зам. генерального директора по операционному управлению ПАО «Мотовилихинские заводы» (Россия, Пермь)

С.В. Толчин – канд. геогр. наук, руководитель проекта «Технополис “Новый звездный”», ПАО «Протон-ПМ» (Россия, Пермь)

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The volume contains proceedings of the fifth international scientific research conference “Schumpeterian Readings” held 19–20 November 2015. The conference serves sort of a basis for the existing Scientific School “Management of Innovations”, functioning on the basis of the Chair “Management and Marketing” at Perm National Research Polytechnic University under the supervision of A.I. Tatarkin, academician of Russian Academy of Sciences. Since 2014 the conference has been included into scheduled events as part of an innovative territorial cluster – rocket engine building “Technopolis "Novy Zvezdny"”.

The papers cover an extensive spectrum of theoretical and practical issues in economic innovative research. Special attention is given to the topical themes of the current year: “interrelation between science, education, authority”, “technologies for forming the innovative competences”. The volume aims at wide audience of educationists, scientists, administrative staff, state governments, municipal and local authorities, directors of various institutions and legal entities, as well as post graduates and full time students at economy departments.

This conference has been sponsored by the Russian Federation Ministry for economic Development under the Regulations of Permskiy Kriy Government «An approved program for developing the innovative territorial cluster of rocket engine “Technopolis "Novy Zvezdniy"” for the period of 2014–2016» № 992-p of 15.09.2014.

The present proceedings volume is on the list of the National Information Analytical System “Russian research citation index”.

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SR Council of Founders:

H. Hanusch – Doctor, Professor, Secretary General of ISS (Germany, Augsburg)

А.I. Tatarkin – Academician, Doctor, Professor, Director of Institute of Economy the Ural Branch of RAS (Russia, Ekaterinburg)

A.A. Tashkinov – Doctor, Professor, Perm National Research Polytechnic University (Russia, Perm) G.P. Tushnolobov– Chairman of Government of Perm Region (Russia, Perm)

S.P. Myasoedov – Doctor, Professor, President of Russian Association of Business Education (Russia, Moscow) А.V. Molodchik – Doctor, Professor, Director of Institute for Professional Training – RMC (Russia, Perm) K.P. Hmaruk – General Director of JSC “Perm Region Development Corporation” (Russia, Perm)

SR Organizing Committee:

N.B. Akаtov – Doctor, Professor, President of Interregional Association of MBA Academics – RABE, Chairman of the SR Organizing Committee (Russia, Perm)

M.M. Kustova – PhD., Vice Director of Presidential Managers Training Program of Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Coordinator of SR (Russia, Perm)

V.P. Gorshenin – Doctor, Professor, Director of MBA Centre South-Ural Technical University (Russia, Chelyabinsk)

D. Dimitrakiev – PhD., Professor, Director of International University College the Institute for Scientific Research (Bulgaria, Varna)

V.N. Lazarev – Doctor, Professor, Head of Chair, Ulyanovsk Technical University (Russia, Ulyanovsk)

L.А. Malysheva – Doctor, Associate Professor, Vice Director of Business School Ural Technical University (Russia, Ekaterinburg)

V.D. Kozlov – Doctor, Professor, Director of Business School, Green City Nizhny Novgorod Regional Institute of Management and Economy (Russia, Nizhny Novgorod)

O.S. Sukharev – Doctor, Professor, Head of Economy Dynamic Institutional Analysis Sector in Institute of Economics, RAS (Russia, Moscow)

А.G. Теslinov – Doctor, Professor, International Institute of Management “LINK” (Russia, Moscow) A.A. Shishkin – Deputy Director for HRM, “PROTON-PM” Company (Russia, Perm)

A.V. Popov – Deputy Director for HRM, “Russian Helicopters – Perm Motors” Company (Russia, Perm)

I.P. Medvedev – Deputy Director for Operations Management “Motovilikha plants” Corporation (Russia, Perm)

S.V. Tolchin – Cluster project manager, “PROTON-PM” Company (Russia, Perm)

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1. ОБЩИЕ ВОПРОСЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ИННОВАЦИЯМИ

(GENERAL ISSUES ON NNOVATION MANGEMENT)

H. Hanusch1

Augsburg, Germany

WORLD ECONOMY DEVELOPMENTS IN RETROSPECTIVE

In the last decades the world changed dramatically. From a global point of view, three processes are on their way which can be called revolutionary: a political revolution; a technological revolution and an economic revolution.

I will try to give a short overview when and how these movements started, what the essence of these processes is and with which consequences we will have to deal with in the future.

1. Political Revolution

The year 1990 can be characterized as a historical landmark because of the two reasons: firstly, long lasting existence orthodox Communism (the Soviet Union) celebrated by many politicians and intellectuals in the West, finally lost its justification as a consequence of its obvious ineffectiveness. Secondly, this year created a new illusion described at its best by Francis Fukuyama in his book “The End of History” (1992). The Western form of a liberal representative democracy had overruled communism as its most important counterpart, meaning in last consequence “the end of history”. Future seems foreseeable and nothing has to be changed to the better. As it is often in case of illusive thinking, changing times will destroy such an erroneous perception of reality. The lasting battle between different political and economic systems, called the “Cold War”, was much more the beginning of a historical process in which many of the celebrated positive qualities of “liberal democracy” were interrogated and questioned worldwide, especially in developing countries.

A new regime of a political system gained more and more relevance in the economically emerging parts of the world, namely the “autocratic system” of political decision making. This system is closely connected with the so called “Asian miracle” of economic development and already started in the sixties of the last century in Japan, then it spread over to South Korea and Taiwan and today it has reached nearly all countries in the East-Asian and Pacific region, particularly Indonesia, the Philippines and even Vietnam. In these countries you may have a democratic political system, formally based on elections but actually characterized either by a long lasting dominance of one political party or the

1 Хорст Хануш – д-р экономики, почетный профессор Университета Аугсбурга, Германия, генеральный секретарь Международного общества Й.А. Шумпетера (The International Joseph Alois Schumpeter Society, ISS).

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existence of a charismatic, authoritarian political leader. In these days only South Korea has reached the finals stage of a democratic system, comparable with Western standards. But, the top model of an authoritarian political system, which was able to produce since the 90´s an incredible economic success, is without question the People`s Republic of China. This huge country was able to bring up for long periods annual growth rates of its GDP of more than 10 %. In the last twenty years China has been the best economic performer worldwide, guided by a one party system without democratic elections and ruled by a handful of political bosses. The symbiosis between the political and economic sphere is not executed by patterns of liberal democracy and free market, so much celebrated by the West. On the contrary, the basis of the huge economic achievement lies in a close connection between an authoritarian state and a heavily regulated economic system.

This revolutionary development, the questioning of the Western democratic ideal can be observed also in the countries which after 1990 tried to install a representative democracy with great empathy. These are countries like Russia, Hungary, Turkey, the Czech Republic, and since last month again Poland. They are step by step developing into authoritarian regimes nourished by the political components like populism and nationalism. For Europe, and especially for the EU, this means a huge challenge and even a severe change in the mode of collaboration. But, there is a third very important reason why the Western kind of democracy is losing its attractiveness. It has to do with the Near East and the so called “Arab spring”. What is happening now in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria or Libya is the result of a huge political experiment, namely to change regimes and to install a democratic system of Western style in these countries. Today we can observe that this experiment has failed totally. The countries preferred to find their own way of state-building based on religion or ideological rules or on the particularities of clans and ethnical groupings. Instead of having acquired the wonderful world of a peaceful democracy they dramatically have to cope with civil wars sending millions of refugees to Western Europe.

2. Technological Revolution

If you look back in history, you can observe three great waves of technological revolutions. In the 19th century it was the steam engine, the coal powered railway and the telegraph which brought up a new paradigm, the industrial production and fabric system. In the 20th century we see the telephone, oil as a cheap energy, the automobile and the aircraft as the main driving forces changing the world, sweeping away old economic structures and transforming society. The 21st century will set off a third great wave of invention and innovative disruption. This time advances in computing-, information-, and communicationtechnology may deliver a similar mixture of transformation as societies had experienced in the centuries before. This “Digital Revolution” already started in the 1950´s with the development of the computer and the integrated circuit. Since then the number of transistors that could be squeezed into a computer chip has been doubling every two years, following a rule of thumb which is well known as Moore`s law. The enormous increase of computer capacity and efficiency, which is thoroughly described by Eric Brynjolfson and Andrew Mc Affee in their 2011 published book “Race against the Machine”. These two developments already have changed in a fundamental way essential characteristics of the three pillars which constitute an economy: the financial, the public and the real sector.

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a)Financial Sector seems to have undergone the most dramatic changes starting in the late 20th century. The financial world is not any more a regional or a national one. Financial innovations like electronic banking, high speed trading or the creation of new financial products within the business concept of leveraging profits changed the financial sphere around the globe systematically into a new world. The “Digital Revolution” and the “Globalization” of the banking sector changed this ideal concept of a “symbiotic coevolution” fundamentally. Bankers, in particular investment bankers, are now considered to be cormorant persons who maximize the returns of their financial involvement without considering actors of other sectors: consumers, producers or citizens. A rational ego is at work, called “animal spirits”, not allowing for any social deliberations (Akerlof and Shiller, 2009). Sophisticated mathematical and probabilistic models are used following basic principles of strategic behavior in the sense of game theory, depicted by the German publicist Frank Schirrmacher (2013). All that creates a world in which the banking sector acts globally interconnected in its own financial sphere, but very isolated. No wonder, such a system is open to global disruptions and a worldwide financial crisis like it happened in the years 2000 and 2008.

b)Public Sector. The effects of the “Digital Revolution” on the public or social sector are much less dramatic compared to the financial sphere. In the West the remarkable progress in connecting citizens and the public administration electronically has been established under the topic of “E-Government”.

The most revolutionary development, however, happens at the moment in the fields of education and health care. Starting a few years ago at worldwide known universities like Stanford or Harvard a movement called “Massive Open Online Courses” is conquering university education in the US and progressively also in European countries by making it possible for a professor to spread the lecture electronically to hundreds of thousands of students around the globe.

The revolutionary development for the future of society occur in the medical sector, driven by the application of IT aimed at connecting in direct way information flows between individuals.

Leo Nefiodow in his just published book “The sixth Kondratieff” (2014) thinks that this innovation in life sciences could even be the source of a 6th Kondratieff cycle.

The ”Digital Revolution” is accompanied by disruptive changes in the social sphere of mankind, because of the special nature of the internet. So called “social networks” in the World Wide Web are a good example for this development.

All these transformational processes may end in an economic and institutional setting which Rifkin in his new book is calling the “Sharing Economy” (2014). First steps in this direction can already be observed in the music, film and media business, in the transportand taxi-business and in the business of rent lodging.

c)Real Sector. The third territory of revolutionary change is induced and guided by digital technologies: consumption and production as the main building blocks of the real economy. Concerning consumption, we already made corresponding arguments, when we discussed innovative and disruptive changes in the social sphere of digital economies. The revolutionary effects of digitalization for the real sector of an economy are characterized and pictured best by two terms: “Industry 4.0” and “Internet of

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Things” (IoT). The connotation “Industry 4.0” or the 4th Industrial Revolution originates from a recent project of the German Government. It was coined by Henning Kagermann, former founder of SAP, the largest software company in Europe, and now president of the Technical Academy of Germany (ACATECH) and it relates to the history of manufacturing.

The first industrial revolution mobilized the mechanization of production using water- and steam power. This was followed by the second revolution relying on mass production with the help of electric power. Automation characterizes the third revolution which is now transforming into the 4th one namely “Digitalization” aiming at radical changes in production by introducing methods of self-optimization and self-configuration to improve automation technology.

In this way production processes are established on a new digital basis, where powerful computers, intelligent software and a huge amount of data are the most important resources of manufacturing. So, what is needed for a “Smart Production Process” is defined by an immense computer capacity and an extraordinary personal capability to write brilliant software programs and by “Big Data” as the empirical prerequisite make use of the “Fabric of the Future”.

Through IoT everyday objects such as cars, stoves or refrigerators will be able to interact and communicate. There you can find a very optimistic and a very pessimistic strand of arguments. I would tend to the optimistic one, because history shows that revolutionary technological developments get realized, even if they are associated with great danger for mankind. The best example is nuclear energy.

3. Economic Revolution

If we again take the year 1990 as a historical landmark for fundamental changes in the world, one miraculous development has to be stressed as most prominent: The economic “Catching Up” process of the developing world, especially in those emerging countries called the BRIC-Group, consisting out of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Since the 1990´s the BRIC-Nation´s growth has far outpaced that of the United States and the European Union to have been increasingly referred to as a symbol of a dramatic shift in the global economy.

This growth phenomenon which has already changed fundamentally the structure of the world economy has one of its roots in “Globalization”, triggered and accelerated by “Digital Revolution”. Another very important reason may be seen in the development model used especially by China and many other countries in the emerging world. It is the old Asian growth model, first applied by Japan, Taiwan and South Korea and then more or less copied by China. The main ingredients of that “Catching Up” model are typical Neo-Classical ones. You need easy access to a lot of capital to be invested in infrastructure, a cheap labor force, the import of technologies either via high technology goods from foreign countries, or direct foreign investment, or at least the ability to imitate efficiently. At the moment China still lags behind the US, Germany, Japan and South Korea, with respect to its future oriented potential. But it has already started to become a leading innovative industrial nation in the world economy, maybe achieving this goal in the

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