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INDISTINCT MODELS OF DECISION-MAKING IN PROBLEMS OF INCREASE IN RELIABILITY OF MANAGEMENT OF DIFFICULT SYSTEMS

Yu.V. Bondarenko, V. E. Belousov, Le Wu Hyong Zang

Bondarenko Yulia Valentinovna, Voronezh state technical university, Doctor of Engineering, professor, professor of department of management of construction

Russia, Voronezh, e-mail: bondarenko@vgasu.vrn.ru, tel. +7-473-276-40-07

Belousov Vadim Evgenyevich, Voronezh state technical university, Candidate of Technical Sciences, associate professor, professor of department of management of construction

Russia, Voronezh, e-mail: belousov@vgasu.vrn.ru, tel.: +7-473-276-40-07

Le Wu Hyong Zang, Voronezh state technical university, graduate student of department of management of construction

Russia, Voronezh, e-mail: upr_stroy_kaf@vgasu.vrn.ru, tel.: +7-473-276-40-07

Abstract. In this article methodological approach to formalization of indistinct concepts which allows to increase reliability of results of modeling of difficult systems is considered. The concept of stability of decisions is its cornerstone. Its essence consists that instead of creation of function of accessory it is only enough to estimate roughly ranges of their uncommon change, and then to estimate behavior of indistinct decisions at any variation of function in the received admissible areas. At the same time on function of accessory very general and weak restrictions are imposed. It is natural that the choice of optimal solutions is made on the basis of the received steady decisions, i.e. decisions, insensitive to changes of function of accessory.

Keywords: vector, model, reliability, rule, difficult system, function of accessory

References

1.Belousov V. E., Nguyen Vyet Tuang. An algorithm of the choice of the best option of carrying out a natural experiment in multicriteria problems of modeling of difficult technical objects//Control systems and information technologies, No. 1(63), 2016. - Page 55-59.

2.Belousov V. E., Tsaregorodtseva O. V. Mechanisms of assessment of adequacy of processes of identification of results of natural experiments with semantic models of representation of knowledge [Text]//Quality of production: control, management, increase, planning: collection of scientific works of the International youth scientific and practical conference (on November 17-18,

2016) / .: Pavlov E. V. ( . edition); In 2 volumes, T.1., South Zap. state. un-t., Kursk: Publishing house of CJSC, 2016. Page - 94-99.

3.Belousov V. E. Modeling of flexible production systems with a uniform stream of resources [Text] / Belousov of V.E., Karchevsky O.Yu.//Messenger of VSU. Series: System analysis and information technologies. No. 1. 2017. - C. 77-81.

4.Belousov V. E., Tsaregorodtseva O. V. Mechanisms of assessment of adequacy of processes of identification of results of natural experiments with semantic models of representation of knowledge [Text]//Quality of production: control, management, increase, planning: collection of scientific works of the International youth scientific and practical conference (on November 17-18, 2016) / Pavlov E. V.; In 2 volumes, T.1., South Zap. state. un-t., Kursk: Publishing house of CJSC Universitetskaya kniga, 2016. Page - 94-99.

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ANALYSIS OF ESTIMATES ADEQUACY OF QUALITATIVE INDICATORS BASED ON THE RASCH MODEL OF LATENT VARIABLES ASSESSMENT

V.S. Kobelev

Kobelev Viktor Sergeevich*, Voronezh State Technical University, Postgraduate at the Department of Construction Management

Russia, Voronezh, e-mail: 36@48.ru, tel. +7-473-2-77-73-08

Abstract. The adequacy of latent variables estimates obtained by the Rasch model is analyzed in this paper. Modifications of the Rasch model based on the maximum likelihood estimation and on the method of least squares are considered. Computational experiments are used to solve the problem.

Keywords: expert assessments, adequacy, latent variables, Rasch model.

References

1. Barkalov S.A. Mathematical Methods for Expert Assessment of Qualitative Indicators [Matematicheskiye metody provedeniya ekspertnoy otsenki kachestvennykh pokazateley]. S. . Barkalov, S.I. MoТsООv, .V. NКsoЧovК, Scientific journal "Management of construction". Voronezh, 2018. N 2 (11). P. 6-36.

2.Smotrova, T.I. A marketing model for assessing the attractiveness of shopping centers [Marketingovaya model' otsenki privlekatel'nosti torgovykh tsentrov]. T.I. Smotrova, S.I. Moiseev. V. 7, N 6. 2015. http://naukovedenie.ru/PDF/21EVN615.pdf DOI: 10.15862/21EVN615

3.Moiseev, S.I. The software quality assessment model, based on the Rasch method of latent variables estimating [Model' otsenki kachestva programmnogo obespecheniya, osnovannaya na metode Rasha otsenki latentnykh peremennykh]. S.I. Moiseyev, YU..V. Chernaya, Ye. V. Parshina. Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Sistemnyy analiz i informatsionnyye tekhnologii. N 1, 2016. P. 102-109.

4. Maslak, A.A. The Rasch model of estimation of latent variables and its properties.

Monograp. [Model' Rasha otsenki latentnykh peremennykh i yeye svoystva. Monografiya]. A.A. Maslak, S.I. Moiseev. VoroЧОгС: NPTS «NКЮМСЧКвК kЧТРК». 2016. 177 p.

5.Maslak, A.A. Comparative analysis of the estimates of the parameters of the Rasch model obtained by the maximum likelihood and least squares methods [Sravnitel'nyy analiz otsenok parametrov modeli Rasha, poluchennykh metodami maksimal'nogo pravdopodobiya i naimen'shikh kvadratov]. A.A. Maslak, S.I. Moiseev, S.A. Osipov, Problemy upravleniya. N 5, 2015. P. 58-66.

6.Moiseev S.I. Mathematical methods and models in the economy. Textbook

[Matematicheskiye metody i modeli v ekonomike. Uchebnoye posobiye]. S.I. Moiseev, A. V. Obukhovsky, Voronezh: AONO VO «IЧsЭТЭЮЭ ЦОЧОНгСЦОЧЭК, ЦКrkОЭТЧРК Т ПТЧКЧsov». Ed. 2nd,

Rev., 2009.-160 p.

7. Moiseev, S.I. Methods for making optimal decisions: Textbook [Metody prinyatiya

optimal'nykh resheniy: uchebnoye posobiye]. S.I. Moiseev, A.A. Zaitsev. Voronezh: AONO VO

«IЧsЭТЭЮЭ ЦОЧОНгСЦОЧЭК, ЦКrkОЭТЧРК Т ПТЧКЧsov». 2016 . 144 p.

8.Moiseev, S.I. Rasch model for estimating latent variables, based on the least squares method [Model' Rasha otsenki latentnykh peremennykh, osnovannaya na metode naimen'shikh kvadratov]. Moiseev S. I. Ekonomika i menedzhment sistem upravleniya. Nauchno-prakticheskiy zhurnal. N 2.1 (16). 2015.- P. 166-172

9.Barkalov S.A. The application of the least squares method for the estimation of latent variables by the method of Rasch [Primeneniye metoda naimen'shikh kvadratov pri otsenke

latentnykh peremennykh metodom Rasha]. S.A. Barkalov, S.I. Moiseev, E.V. Solovyova,

NКЮМСЧвв vОsЭЧТk VoroЧОгСskoРo GASU. SОr. «UprКvlОЧТвО sЭroТЭОl'sЭvoЦ». 2014. - N 1 (6). - P. 112-115.

10. Goodman, L.A. Explanationary Latent Structure Analysis Using Both Identifiable and Unidentifiable Models / L.A. Goodman // Biometrika.-1974.-Vol.61.- № 2

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