Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȏȈȕȐȔȈȦȚ ȐȕȜȖ-ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ. «ǪǪǹ țȉȍȎȌȍȕȣ, ȟȚȖ Ȑȕ- ȜȖ-ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ ȒȈȒ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ șȊȖȌȧȚ ȊȔȍșȚȍ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕțȦ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕțȦ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ șȓțȎȉȣ, ȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕȣ, ȘȍșțȘșȣ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȖȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ Ȋ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ. ǰȕȜȖȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ – ȥȚȖ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ Ȓ “ȒȘțȋȓȖșțȚȖȟȕȖȔț” ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊț, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȗȖȘȖȎȌȈȍȚ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ, ȗȘȖȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȖ Ȑ ȗȖ ȊșȍȔț șȗȍȒȚȘț ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ»1.

ǹțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ. DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ǨȘȔȐȐ ǹȀǨ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȕȐȧ ȞȍȓȍȊȣȝ șȐȓ (Objective Force), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȗȖȌȊȐȎȕȣȍ (agile), ȘȈȏȊȍȘȚȣȊȈȍȔȣȍ (deployable), ȔȕȖȋȖȞȍȓȍȊȣȍ, ȎȐȊțȟȐȍ, ȓȍȚȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȣȍ șȐȓȣ ȉȣșȚȘȖȋȖ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ, șȗȖșȖȉȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ. «ǶǩǬȅ șȖȏȌȈȦȚ ȜȘȍȑȔ, ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ Ȕȣ șȖȏȌȈȍȔ țșȓȖȊȐȧ (ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ – ȗȘȐȔ. Ǹ.Ǩ.), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȝȖȚȐȔ ȊȐȌȍȚȤ ȗȖ ȖȒȖȕȟȈȕȐȦ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ»2. «ǷșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ, ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȔȣȍ ȔȖȡȤȦ Ȑ ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȤȦ ȗȖȌȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȑ ȞȍȓȍȊȣȝ șȐȓ, ȉțȌțȚ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȚȤ șȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȕȐȍ ȊȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȒȈȒ ȌȖ ȘȈȏȊȍȘȚȣȊȈȕȐȧ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ șȚȈȉȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȜȈȏ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ»3. «ȅȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ, țȚȖȟȕȍȕȕȈȧ Ȑ ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȕȈȧ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ Ȍȓȧ țȓțȟȠȍȕȐȧ șȗȖșȖȉȖȊ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȈȘȔȐȐ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ»4.

DzȖȘȗțș ȔȖȘșȒȖȑ ȗȍȝȖȚȣ. ǬȖȒȚȘȐȕȈ DzȖȘȗțșȈ ȔȖȘșȒȖȑ ȗȍȝȖȚȣ ǹȀǨ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗȉ «ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȝ» Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȑ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȧ, ȒȈȎȌȈȧ Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ șȊȖȑ ȕȈȉȖȘ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, Ȋ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒȐȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȤ. ǻȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ țșȚȘȈȕȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ, Ȋ ȚȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȒȈȒ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ Ȑ ȊȖȓȍ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕțȦ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ, ȕȖ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȐȓȐ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȞȍȕȕȖșȚȤ. ȅȒșȗȍȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȔȈȕȍȊȘȍȕȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ (expeditionary maneuver warfare) DzȖȘȗțșȈ ȔȖȘșȒȖȑ ȗȍȝȖȚȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȐȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ ȟȍȘȍȏ «ȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȈȞȐȦ șȐȓ ȕȈ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȚȖȟȒȈȝ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ, ȗșȐ-

1 U.S. Department of the Air Force. Information Operations. Air Force Doctrine Document 2-5 (AFDD 2-5). Air Force Doctrine Center, Washington, DC: Department of the Air Force, 11 January 2005. 12 January 2011. http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/service_pubs/afd2_5.pdf.

2 Caldwell, Jim. MC02 experiment extends C4ISR to all services. Virginia: TRADOC News Services, 26 June 2002.

3 U.S. Department of the Army. United States Army White Paper: Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2001. 12 January 2011. http://www.army.mil/features/WhitePaper/ObjectiveForceWhitePaper.pdf.

4 Batschelet, Allen W. “Effects-Based Operations: A new Operational Model,” Strategic Studies Institute “Transformation Concepts for National Security in the 21st Century,” Advanced Strategic Art Program (ASAP), 2002, p. 129. 12 January 2011. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA404406.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȠȖȒȈ Ȑ ȚȍȔȗȈ»1. DzȖȕȍȟȕȖȑ ȞȍȓȤȦ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖȌȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȓȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ Ȓ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȦ, ȍȋȖ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ ȉȖȘȖȚȤșȧ, ȟȍȘȍȏ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȍ ȗȈȕȐȒȐ Ȑ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȟȈ.

DzȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ. DzȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ ǹȀǨ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȉȈȏȐșȈ ǶǩǬȅ ȗȘȖȊȍȓȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȖȉȢȍȔ ȘȈȉȖȚȣ ȗȖ țȚȖȟȕȍȕȐȦ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ Ȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ ȍȍ ȘȍȓȍȊȈȕȚȕȖșȚȐ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ țȘȖȊȕȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǵȖȊȣȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȊȖȑȕț ȝȖȓȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȋșȍȝ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, ȐǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȒȈȕȌȐȌȈȚȖȔ Ȑ ȉȈȏȐșȖȔ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȔ ȘȍȠȐȚȤ ȌȈȕȕțȦ ȏȈȌȈȟț. DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȖȔ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȚȈȚȤ ȖȉȡȐȔ ȜȘȍȑȔȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȊȣșȠȍȋȖ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ șȚȘȈȕȣ ȗȘȐ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȐ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ, ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ ȊȖȑȕȣ2.

ǵȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ DzǶǹ ǹȀǨ ȌȈȍȚ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȑ ǶǩǬȅ, ȖȚȘȈȎȈȦȡȐȝ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȍȋȖ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ Ȓ țȘȖȊȕȧȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ șȜȍȘȍ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ. Ǫ ȗȍȘȊțȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ǶǩǬȅ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦȡȈȧ Ȋșȍ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȖȋȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȕȈ ȊșȍȔ șȗȍȒȚȘȍ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ.ǶǩǬȅ – ȥȚȖ «ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȦȚșȧ, ȊȣȗȖȓȕȧȦȚșȧ, ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘțȦȚșȧ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȧșȤ ȕȈ ȝȖȓȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȣ, ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȐȓȐ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚȤ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȐȓȐ ȍȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȚȤ ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȕȣȝ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȔȖȡȐ»3.

ǶǩǬȅ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ «ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȖȋȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈ ȐȓȐ “ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ” ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȟȍȘȍȏ șȐȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ, ȔțȓȤȚȐȗȓȐȒȈȚȐȊȕȖȍ Ȑ ȒțȔțȓȧȚȐȊȕȖȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȕȖȋȖ ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȕȍȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ ȕȈ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ, ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ»4. ǹȐȕȍȘȋȐȧ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ «ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ Ȑ șȐȕȝȘȖȕȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ <...> ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ <...> Ȋ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧȝ Ȑ ȔȕȖȋȖȔȍȘȕȣȝ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈȝ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȔț ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ ȗȘȖȍȞȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȉȍȏ șȚȣȒȖȊ ȐȓȐ țȧȏȊȐȔȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȋ ȉȣ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ»5. ǷȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȕȣȑ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȑ

1 U.S. Marine Corps. Concepts & Programs 2002. Washington DC: Department of the Navy, Headquarters United States Marine Corps, Programs and Resources Department, 2002, p. 22. 12 January 2011. http://www.usmc.mil/unit/ pandr/Pages/candp.aspx.

2 Rickerman, Effects-Based Operations, p. 35.

3 Admiral, Effects-Based Operations, p. 26.

4 Rickerman, Effects-Based Operations, p. 17.

5 U.S. Joint Chiefs Staff, Joint Publication 3-0, Joint Operations, p. IV-19.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȊȘȈȋ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ șȖȍȌȐȕȧȍȚ șȊȖȦ ȊȖȓȦ Ȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ Ȋ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ ǷǪȅǹǰǰ-șȐșȚȍȔȍ, ȐȔȍȦȡȍȑ ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȍ țȏȓȣ Ȑ țȧȏȊȐȔȖșȚȐ, ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘțȍȚ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ. Ǫ șȚȈȚȤȍ «Ǫ ȗȖȐșȒȈȝ șȐȕȍȘȋȐȐ: ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ» ȖȚȔȍȟȈȍȚșȧ, ȟȚȖ «ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȍ ǶǩǬȅ ȐȔȍȦȚ șȝȖȌșȚȊȖ ș ȉȓȐȞȒȘȐȋȖȔ Ȋ șȊȖȍȔ ȎȍȓȈȕȐȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȍ, ȚȍȔȗ Ȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȐȑ ȜȈȒȚȖȘ (șȚȘȈȝ, țȚȖȔȓȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ) Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȉȣșȚȘȖȋȖ țșȗȍȝȈ Ȋ ȕȈȏȍȔȕȖȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ»1. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ǶǩǬȅ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ DzǶǹ ǹȀǨ ȒȈȒ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș, Ȑ «ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȖȚ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒțȦȡȐȝ ǶǩǬȅ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚșȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȕȈȊȣȒȖȊ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, ȚȖ ȉțȌțȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ șȗȖșȖȉȣ, ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȚȤ Ȑ ȚȘȍȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȓȐȌȍȘȖȊ»2. ǶǩǬȅ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ ȓȍȚ ȖȉțȟȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȚȘȍȕȐȘȖȊȒȐ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȐȕȚȍȕșȐȊȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ Ȋșȍȑ ȒȈȘȤȍȘȣ.

2.2 ǶǩǬȅ Ȋ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤșȒȐȝ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȞȍȕȚȘȈȝ Ȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧȝ ǹȀǨ

ǰșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤșȒȈȧ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȈ ȗȖ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȦ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȦ ǴǶ ǹȀǨ. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ «ǰșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤșȒȖȑ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȍ ȗȖ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȦ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȦ» (ǰǷDzȐǻ) țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȔȖȡȕȐȒȈ ǴǶ ǹȀǨ «ǹȍȚȐ, ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ Ȑ ȐȕȚȍ-

ȋȘȈȞȐȧ» (Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) within the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense Networks, Information and Integration (NII)) ǶǩǬȅ ȕȍ ȍșȚȤ ȕȖȊȈȧ ȜȖȘȔȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, Ȑ ȖȕȈ ȕȍ ȏȈȔȍȕȧȍȚ ȒȈȒțȦ-ȓȐȉȖ Ȑȏ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȜȖȘȔ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ. «ǶǩǬȅ – ȥȚȖ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȍ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȝ Ȑ ȖȜȖȘȔȓȧȦȡȐȝ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȌȘțȏȍȑ, ȊȘȈȋȖȊ Ȑ ȕȍȑȚȘȈȓȖȊ (ȕȍȑȚȘȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ) ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȔȐȘȈ, ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ»3. Ǫ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ Ȋșȍȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȓȐȞȈ, ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȡȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ, șȚȈȘȈȓȐșȤ șȖȏȌȈȚȤ țșȓȖȊȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȖȔȖȋȓȐ ȉȣ ȐȔ ȘȍȠȐȚȤ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ Ȑ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ – ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ Ȋ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ «ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȐȑșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ»4.

ǵȈțȟȕȖȍ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȑ Ȋ ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ. ǹȐȔȗȖȏȐțȔ, ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȑȕȈțȟȕȣȔȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖȔȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȑȊȖȉȓȈșȚȐȊȖȍȕȕȣȝȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑǴǶ ǹȀǨ (Military Operations Research Society (MORS)) Ȋ 2002ȋ., ȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȓșȧ ȕȈ

«ȖȟȍȕȤ ȊȈȎȕȖȔ ȊȖȗȘȖșȍ – ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȓȐ ǶǩǬȅ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖȓȍȏȕȖȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȍȑ»5. ǶȚȊȍȟȈȧȕȈȊȖȗȘȖș, șȐȔȗȖȏȐțȔșȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȓȌȊȈȉȈȏȖȊȣȝȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȈǶǩǬȅ:

1 Bingham, Price T. “Seeking Synergy: Joint Effects-Based Operations,” Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ), Issue 30, Second Quartet 2002., pp. 52-59. 12 January 2011. http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/1030.pdf.

2 Batschelet, Effects-Based Operations, p. 125.

3 Smith, Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations. 4 Cebrowski, The Implementation of Network-Centric Warfare, p. 4.

5 Hayes, Richard Dr. and Sue Iwanski, Ms. “Analyzing Effects Based Operations (EBO) Workshop Summary,” PHALANX: The Bulletin of Military Operations Research (MORS), Vol. 35, No. 1, March 2002, p. 22.

301

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

1.ȊȖȑȕȈ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ Ȋșȍ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ; Ȑ

2.ȒȈȎȌȣȑ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕ ȚȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȕȍȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȌȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȍ ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȈȘȍȕȈȝ1.

ǶǩǬȅ – ȥȚȖ ȊȣȏȖȊ, ȏȈșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȊȐȋȈȚȤșȧ Ȑȏ ȥȘȣ ȊȖȏȘȈșȚȈȦȡȍȑ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȓ ȥȘȍ «ȔȍȚȈȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȖșȚȐ», Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ǴȐȕȐșȚȍȘșȚȊȈ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȣ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘțȦȚșȧ ș ȌȘțȋȐȔȐ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, ȗȈȘȚȕȍȘȈȔȐ ȗȖ ȒȖȈȓȐȞȐȐ, ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧȔȐ. ǪȣȏȖȊ, ȚȘȍȉțȦȡȐȑ ȒȈȒ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȏȕȈȕȐȑ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ șȊȖȏȘȈșȚȈȦȡȍȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤȦ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝȊȖȍȕȕȣȝȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ2.

DzȖȘȗȖȘȈȞȐȧ ǸȅǵǬ. Ǫ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧȝ ȒȖȘȗȖȘȈȞȐȐ ǸȅǵǬ (RAND Corporation) ǶǩǬȅ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ «ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ, ȗȖȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȍ Ȑ ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȍȔȣȍ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȔ ȜȘȍȑȔȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȚ ȊȍșȤ ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕ ȗȘȧȔȣȝ, ȕȍȗȘȧȔȣȝ Ȑ ȒȈșȒȈȌȕȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ, șȗȖșȖȉȕȣȝ ș ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȤȦ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȐ ȉȣȚȤ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȣȔȐ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ, ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ, ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ»3.

3. DzȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚȣ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ

ǸȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȣȠȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȊȣȌȍȓȐȚȤ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȕȣȍ ȟȍȘȚȣ Ȑ ȖșȕȖȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȡȐȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȣ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ, ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȔȕȖȋȖȉȍȡȈȦȡȐȔ Ȍȓȧ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ǨȘȔȍȕȐȐ. Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȓȈȕȍ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȔȐ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȐșȝȖȌȧȚ Ȑȏ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȘȒȍșȚȘȖȊȒȐ Ȋșȍȝ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ ȗȘȐ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȐ ȏȈȌȈȟ Ȋ șȜȍȘȍ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, Ȋ ȌȈȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȔ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȉțȌȍȚ șȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȖ ȗȘȍȎȌȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȕȈ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ șȒȊȖȏȤ ȗȘȐȏȔț DzǶǹ ǹȀǨ Ȑ ǰǷDzȐǻ ǴǶ ǹȀǨ, ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȦȡȐȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ ǩǬȅȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ. Ǭȓȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȖȓȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȘȍȠȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔț ȖȘȒȍșȚȘȖȊȒȐ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȍȘȍȑȚȐ Ȓ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȦ ȚȘȍȝ ȋȓȈȊȕȣȝ ȒȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚ ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ – ǩǬȅ-

ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ (effects-based planning (EBP)), ǩǬȅ-ȐșȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ (effects-based execution (EBE)) Ȑ ǩǬȅ-ȖȞȍȕȒȐ (effects-based assessment (EBA))4.

1 Booz, Allen Hamilton. Summary of the MORS Workshop: Analyzing Effects-Based Operations. Military Operations Research Society (MORS).McLean, VA: Jan. 2002.

2 Ibid, p. 23.

3 Davis, Effects-Based Operations (EBO), p. 7.

4 Davidson, Culture and Effects-Based Operations in an Insurgency, pp. 26-27.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

3.1 ǩǬȅ-ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ

ǼțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖ ǩǬȅ-ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ (ǩǬȅǷ) ȘȍȠȈȍȚ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔț ȐȕȚȍȋȘȈȞȐȐ Ȋșȍȝ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ «ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ ȉȖȧ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ, ȗȘȍșȓȍȌțȧ ȞȍȓȤ șȖȏȌȈȚȤ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ Ȍȓȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȏȈȌȈȟ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ»1. ǵȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ ǩǬȅǷ ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ. «Ǫ ǩǬȅǷ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȐ șȚȈȘȈȦȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȍȌȐȕșȚȊȈ țșȐȓȐȑ – ȋȈȘȔȖȕȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȍ, ȒȖȔȉȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ Ȑ ȔȍȎȊȍȌȖȔșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȈșșȖȞȐȐȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ș ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, Ȋ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȑ, ȊșȍșȚȖȘȖȕȕȐȑ ȗȓȈȕ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ»2.

ǪȘȈȔȒȈȝ ǩǬȅǷ ȚȍȘȔȐȕ «ȥȜȜȍȒȚ» ȗȖȓțȟȈȍȚ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȠȐȘȖȒțȦ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȦ. ǭșȓȐ ȕȈ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȦ «ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȚȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȖȘțȎȐȧ Ȑ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȗȖȌȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȑ»3, ȚȖ ȕȈ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ

ȐșȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ «ȥȜȜȍȒȚ» ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ Ȑ ȕȍȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ țșȓȖȊȐȑ, ȖȉȣȟȕȖ Ȋ ȜȖȘȔȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ (behavioral state) ȐȓȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȣ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȝșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ.

ǪǩǬȅǷ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȍȚșȧ ș ȖșȔȣșȓȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȔ

ȐȍȋȖ ȠȚȈȉȖȔ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȖȑ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ, ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȍȕȐȧ ȏȕȈȕȐȑ Ȗȉ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȍ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȝ Ȍȓȧ ȊȣȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ Ȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȝ ȌȖȉȐȚȤșȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ4. ǬȈȓȍȍ «ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȐ ȐȌȍȕȚȐȜȐȞȐȘțȦȚ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȔȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȝ țȏȓȖȊ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. ǯȈȚȍȔ ȖȕȐ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ș ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐ ȐȓȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ, ȏȈȊȍȘȠȈȧ ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȐȍ șȊȧȏȖȒ «ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ – țȏȓȣ – ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ – ȘȍșțȘșȣ»5.

ǷȘȖȞȍșș ǩǬȅ-ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ șȖșȚȖȐȚ Ȑȏ ȠȍșȚȐ ȥȚȈȗȖȊ6:

1.ǶșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ (ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȍ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ) (Commander's Guidance (Receipt of Mission)).

2.ǨȕȈȓȐȏ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ (Mission Analysis & Effects Assessment).

3.ǸȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ (Effects Development).

4.ǨȕȈȓȐȏ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ (Capabilities Analysis).

5.ǸȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ Ȑ ȕȈȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ (Commander's Decision & Resource Assignment).

1 U.S. Joint Forces Command. A Concept Paper for Operational Net Assessment (ONA) Version 2.0. Norfolk, VA: 3 May 2004, p. 11.

2 Ibid.

3 Ibid.

4 Ibid, p. 16.

5 Ibid.

6 Admiral, Effects-Based Operations, pp. 69-75.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

6.ǻȚȖȟȕȍȕȐȍ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ (Mission Refinement & Effects Execution).

1.ǶșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ (ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȍ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ). ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ, ǺǪǬ ȐȓȐ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȍȚșȧ ȗȖșȓȍ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȔ țȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȖȚ ȗȘȍȏȐȌȍȕȚȈ Ȑ/ȐȓȐ ȔȐȕȐșȚȘȈ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȣ ȗȘȐșȚțȗȐȚȤ Ȓ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȐȓȐ țȚȖȟȕȍȕȐȦ țȎȍ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȔȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȗȖ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȒȘȐȏȐșț. DzȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘțȍȚ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ ȗȖ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȋȖȚȖȊȐȚ țȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ Ȍȓȧ ȠȚȈȉȈ Ȋ ȜȖȘȔȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȒȈȘȚȍ. ǻȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ ȒȘȈȚȒȖȍ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ țȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȊȣșȠȍȋȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ, ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȦȡȍȍ ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȚȖ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ Ȗȕ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕ Ȑȝ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ.

2.ǨȕȈȓȐȏ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. ǨȕȈȓȐȏ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȠȚȈȉț ȊȣȧȊȐȚȤ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ Ȑ ȗȘȐșȚțȗȐȚȤ Ȓ ȗȘȖȞȍșșț ȗȖȐșȒȈ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ. ǪȖȗȘȖșȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȠȚȈȉ ȏȈȌȈȍȚ șȍȉȍ ȗȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ, ȏȊțȟȈȚ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ: ȒȈȒȐȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ Ȗȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ; ȒȈȒȐȍ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ ȌȖȓȎȕȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȧȔȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȗȘȧȔȖȑ ȈȚȈȒȐ șȐșȚȍȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ?

3.ǸȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. ǺȘȍȚȐȑ ȠȈȋ ǩǬȅ-ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ – ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȈ (ȗȘȖȘȈȉȖȚȒȈ) ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ Ȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȐȖȘȐȚȍȚȖȊ Ȋ Ȑȝ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȐ. ǸȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȈȔ ȊȣȧȊȐȚȤ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȈȎȕȣȍ șȊȧȏȐ ȊȕțȚȘȐ șȐșȚȍȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ Ȑ ȖȘȒȍșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. ǶȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȐȖȘȐȚȍȚȖȊ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȐȌȍȕȚȐȜȐȞȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȈȚȈȒȖȊȈȕȣ Ȋ ȗȍȘȊțȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȒȈșȒȈȌȕȣȝ Ȑ ȒțȔțȓȧȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. ȅȚȖ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȑ ȠȈȋ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ șȐȓȣ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȐȍșȧ Ȋ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ, ȒȖȕȍȟȕȣ, Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȉȓȈȋȖȗȘȐȧȚȕȣȝ Ȑȏ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ. ǯȈȊȍȘȠȍȕȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȠȈȋȈ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȈȔ ȊȣȧȊȐȚȤ șȊȧȏȒȐ «ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ – țȏȓȣ - ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ» (effects-node-actions linkage) Ȑ ȗȘȐșȚțȗȐȚȤ Ȓ ȈȕȈȓȐȏț ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȝ șȐȓ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊ, ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȣȝ ȕȈ ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȍ țȏȓȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ.

4.ǨȕȈȓȐȏ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ. ǨȕȈȓȐȏ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȍșȧ

ȊȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ ȘȍșțȘșȣ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ Ȑ ȖȚȊȍȟȈȍȚ ȕȈ ȊȖȗȘȖșȣ: ȒȈȒȐȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȣ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȍȔțȦ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, Ȑ ȒȈȒȖȊȣ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȈȧ ȞȍȕȈ Ȑ ȘȐșȒȐ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ; ȒȈȒȐȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ Ȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȍȍ ȊșȍȋȖ, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȈȚ ȕțȎȕȣȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȍȌțȚ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ? ǭșȓȐ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȍșȧ Ȋ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȐ șȐȓȣ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ ȕȍȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȣ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ Ȑ/ȐȓȐ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ, ȚȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȚșȧ ȚȐȗ Ȑ ȖȉȢȍȔ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȘȐȊȓȍȟȤ.

304

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

5.ǸȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ Ȑ ȕȈȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ. ǵȈ ȥȚȖȔ ȥȚȈȗȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȗȓȈȕ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȐȑșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ (effects-based courses of action), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ, ȗȖ ȍȋȖ țȉȍȎȌȍȕȐȦ, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ. ǯȈȚȍȔ Ȗȕ ȗȖȌȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȚȤ țȚȖȟȕȍȕȕȣȍ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ, ȕȖȊȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȒȍ Ȑ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȦ Ȑ ȗȘȐȖȘȐȚȍȚȣ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ.

6.ǻȚȖȟȕȍȕȐȍ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. ǬȈȕȕȣȑ ȥȚȈȗ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ țȚȖȟȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȓȈȕȈ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȝ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȤ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. ǰșȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ șȖȗȘȖȊȖȎȌȈȍȚșȧ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȔ ȗȘȐȒȈȏȖȔ ȕȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ șȐȓ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȖȊ țȒȈȏȈȕȐȍȔ ȗȖ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȦ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȑ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ.

ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ DzǶǹ ǹȀǨ, ǩǬȅ-ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȚȖȟȕȖ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȍȚ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ (joint planning process), ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȧșȤ ȕȈ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȐ șȊȧȏȖȒ «ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ – ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ – ȏȈȌȈȟȐ», ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȧ șȊȧȏȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ș ȉȖȍȊȣȔȐ ȏȈȌȈȟȈȔȐ.

3.2ǩǬȅ-ȐșȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ

ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȒȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚ ǶǩǬȅ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ – ǩǬȅ-ȐșȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ1. ǷȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ Ȑ Ȑȝ ȐȏȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ǩǬȅ-ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȋȖ Ȑȝ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ. ǵȈ ȥȚȈȗȍ ǩǬȅ-ȐșȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ, ȗȖșȓȍ ȗȖȌȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȒȈȏȈ ȕȈ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȦ, ȠȚȈȉ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȗȘȐȒȈȏȣ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȍȕȕȣȔ ȊȖȑșȒȈȔ, ȏȈȗțșȒȈȦȡȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȐ ȊȖȑșȒ Ȓ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȦ ȟȈșȚȕȣȝ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ, ȐșȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖ ȖȚșȓȍȎȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȔ Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȠȚȈȉȖȔ, ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. DzȘȐȚȐȟȕȣȔȐ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ ȕȈ ȥȚȈȗȍ ǩǬȅ-ȐșȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȐȕȝȘȖȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȈȧ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ ȕȈ ȊșȍȔ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ ȉȖȧ – ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȑ ȊȣȏȖȊ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȠȚȈȉ2.

ǽȖȚȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓȖȎȐȚȤșȧ ȊȗȍȟȈȚȓȍȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ țșȐȓȐȑ ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȌȖȔȍȕȍ, Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ǶǩǬȅ ȈȚȈȒțȍȚșȧ Ȑ ȒȖȋȕȐȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȌȖȔȍȕ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ȅȚȖ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ, Ȋ ȟȐșȓȍ ȗȘȖȟȍȋȖ, ȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȋȘțȗȗ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșȖȊ (communities of interest) ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȍȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȚȤ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ șȍȔȍȑȕȣȍ șȊȧȏȐ, ȓȐȌȍȘȖȊ ȋȘțȗȗ, ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȑ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȓȐȌȍȘȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘ. ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȊȖȓȦ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȍȋȖ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ3.

1 Davidson, Culture and Effects-Based Operations in an Insurgency, pp. 36-37. 2 Ibid.

3 Admiral, Effects-Based Operations, p. 33.

305

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

3.3 ǩǬȅ-ȖȞȍȕȒȈ

ǺȘȍȚȐȑ ȒȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚ ǶǩǬȅ – ǩǬȅ-ȖȞȍȕȒȈ1, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ «ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȐ țșȗȍȝȈ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ», (measures of campaign success), ȘȈșȠȐȘȧȧ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. Ǫ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ǩǬȅ-ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȊȊȖȌȧȚșȧ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȐ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ (measures of performance) Ȍȓȧ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ Ȑ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ (measures of effectiveness) Ȍȓȧ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. ǺȈȒȎȍ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȐȟȍșȒȐ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ Ȋșȍȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ2. ǷȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȐ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ, ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ȕȈ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȐ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ, ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣ ȒȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȧȔ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȉȖȧ Ȑ ȖȚȊȍȟȈȦȚ ȕȈ ȊȖȗȘȖș: ȉȣȓȈ ȓȐ ȉȖȍȊȈȧ ȏȈȌȈȟȈ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȈ Ȋ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȐȐ ș ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȧȔȐ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ? ǷȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȝ, ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȔȣȝ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ ȟȈșȚȕȣȝ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ, ȗȖȔȖȋȈȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȔț Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȠȚȈȉț ȖȚȊȍȚȐȚȤ ȕȈ ȊȖȗȘȖș: ȕȈșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȝȖȌ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ șȖȋȓȈșțȍȚșȧ ș ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȧȔȐ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ?

4. DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ ȊȖȑȕȣ

ǷȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȑ ȌȐșȒțȘș ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȊȒȓȈȌ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȕȍșȚȐ ǩǬȅ-ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ, ȓȍȎȐȚ Ȋ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ. ǵȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ ȕȍȚ ȒȈȒȐȝ-ȓȐȉȖ ȋȈȘȈȕȚȐȑ, ȟȚȖ ȉȍȏ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȝ țșȐȓȐȑ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȓȖȋȐȐ, șȊȧȏȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ ș ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȒȈȘȚȐȕȖȑ ȉȖȧ, Ȑ, ȕȈȖȉȖȘȖȚ, ȗȘȖșȓȍȌȐȚȤ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȊȓȐȧȦȚ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ3. ǷȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ Ȑ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ, ȖȚȘȈȎȈȦȡȐȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȞȍȓȐȐ ȊȓȐȧȦȡȐȍ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ, Ȑ ȕȈ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǰȔȍȕȕȖ ȕȈ șȚȣȒȈȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖȐșȒțșșȚȊȈ ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚȕȈȐȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȖȔ4.

4.1 ǶǩǬȅ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ

ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȐșȚȖȘȐȧ ȕȍȌȊțșȔȣșȓȍȕȕȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȊȣȐȋȘȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȖȐȋȘȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ, ȘȍȌȒȖ – ȕȈ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ Ȑ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ – ȕȈ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ. «ǵȐȒȈȒȈȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȊȐȘȚțȖȏ-

1 Davidson, Culture and Effects-Based Operations in an Insurgency, pp. 37-38.

2 U.S. Joint Forces Command, Operational Implications of Effects-based Operations, p.16.

3 Murray, Williamson and Kevin Woods. Thoughts on Effects-Based Operations, Strategy, and the Conduct of War. Joint Advanced Warfighting Project, Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA Paper P-3869, October 2004, p. 2. 12 January 2011. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ada428069.

4 Rickerman, Effects-Based Operations, pp. 21-22.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȕȖșȚȤ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȖȏȔȍșȚȐȚȤ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȐȏȢȧȕȣ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȈȝ. ǵȍȊȈȎȕȖ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȓȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȐȓȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȐȔȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȣ ȌȊȐȋȈȓȐ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ. Ǫ ȖȉȖȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȗȘȖșȟȍȚȣ ȊȍȌțȚ Ȓ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȦ, Ȑ ȓȦȉȈȧ ȒȖȔȉȐȕȈȞȐȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȖȠȐȉȒȐ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȌȈȎȍ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈȞȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȏȈȒȖȕȟȐȓȐ ȊȖȑȕț Ȋ șȖșȚȈȊȍ ȗȖȉȍȌȐȊȠȍȑ ȒȖȈȓȐȞȐȐ. ǬȈȎȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȔȖȉȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȊȖȓȐ, ȎȐȊȖȑ șȐȓȣ, ȐȕȌțșȚȘȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȋȈȚșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȕȖțȝȈț ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȗȈșȚȐ ȊȖȦȦȡțȦ șȚȖȘȖȕț ȖȚ ȋȖȘȤȒȐȝ ȗȓȖȌȖȊ (șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ) ȖȠȐȉȖȒ. ǰȔȍȕȕȖ ȗȖȥȚȖȔț ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȊȈȎȕȍȍ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȣȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ, ȟȍȔ ȕȈ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ. ǶȠȐȉȒȐ Ȋ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧȝ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȣ, ȕȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȖȠȐȉȒȐ ȎȐȊțȚ Ȋ ȊȍȒȈȝ»1.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȊȣșȠȍȍ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ șȚȘȈȕȣ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȧșȕȣȔ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȚȘȈȕșȓȐȘțȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ. ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȕȣȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ Ȋ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, ȚȖ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȖȚȊȍȚȐȚȤ ȕȈ ȘȧȌ ȊȖȗȘȖșȖȊ. DzȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȊȣșȠȍȍ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ șȚȘȈȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȗȘȐ ȈȘȚȐȒțȓȧȞȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȍȔȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ? DzȈȒ ȖȕȖ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȊȈȍȚșȧ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȐ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȏȈȔȣșȓȣ, ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȊȖȑȕț? DzȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ ȉțȌȍȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ?2 ǬȘțȋȐȔȐ șȓȖȊȈȔȐ, ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȉȣȚȤ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȜȘȍȑȔ, Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȍȚ ȊȣșȠȍȍ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ șȚȘȈȕȣ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȑ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ, ȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ ȏȈ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒț ǩǬȅ-ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ. ǵȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȜȘȍȑȔȈ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȌȐșȒțȘșȣ3, ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȍ ȕȐȎȍ.

ǬȐșȒțȘșȣ Ȑ ȚȘȈȕșȓȧȞȐȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ Ȋ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ.

ǪȈȎȕȍȑȠȐȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȜȘȍȑȔȈ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȌȐșȒțȘșȣ, ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȍ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȣșȠȐȔ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖȔ șȚȘȈȕȣ. ǶȕȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȖȜȖȘȔȐȚȤ

1 Millett, Allan R. and Williamson Murray, “The Lessons of War,” The National Interest, No. 14, Winter 1988/1989, pp. 83-95.

2 Murray, Thoughts on Effects-Based Operations, Strategy, and the Conduct of War, p. 8.

3 ǷȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȈ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȍȘȍȌȖȊȣȝ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ (Joint Advanced Warfighting Program) ǰȕșȚȐȚțȚȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ ǹȀǨ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȌȐșȒțȘșȣ ȒȈȒ «ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȣȑ ȖȉȔȍȕ ȐȌȍȧȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȔȕȍȕȐȧȔȐ (ș ȖȉȘȈȚȕȖȑ șȊȧȏȤȦ): 1) ȗȖ ȟȈșȚȕȣȔ ȚȍȔȈȔ; 2) ȗȖ ȗȖȐșȒț ȧșȕȖșȚȐ; 3) ș ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ». ǬȐșȒțȘșȣ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ «ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȜȖȘȔ», «ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚȤ ȕȈ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ», «ȉȣȚȤ ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȦȡȐȔȐșȧ (șȐȚțȈȞȐȧ Ȑ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȈ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚȤșȧ, Ȑ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȣȍ șȖȋȓȈȠȍȕȐȧ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ, Ȋ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ ȘȍȌȒȖ (ȐȓȐ ȕȍ ȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ ȊȖȖȉȡȍ). <...> ǶȕȐ (ȌȐșȒțȘșȣ) ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖ ȎȍșȚȒȐȔȐ, ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȚȤ ȌȍȉȈȚȣ, ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȚȤ ȟȍșȚȕȖșȚȐ ȖȚ Ȋșȍȝ țȟȈșȚȕȐȒȖȊ ȌȐșȒțșșȐȐ, șȖȏȌȈȊȈȚȤ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȍ ȞȍȗȐ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȖȑ șȊȧȏȐ». ǹȔ. “Discourses and the Joint Force Commander,” Joint Advanced Warfighting Project, Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses Brief, December 2001; ȞȐȚȈȚȈ ȗȖ: Murray, Thoughts on Effects-Based Operations, Strategy, and the Conduct of War, p. 8.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȞȍȓȧȔȐ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔȐ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȔȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȚȤ ȕȈȔȍȟȍȕȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ. ǺȈȒȐȍ ȌȐșȒțȘșȣ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȓȍȋȒȐȔȐ Ȑ ȉȍȏȉȖȓȍȏȕȍȕȕȣȔȐ, Ȑ ȕȍȚ ȒȈȒȐȝ-ȓȐȉȖ ȗȘȐȟȐȕ ȌțȔȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȐ șȚȈȕțȚ ȚȈȒȖȊȣȔȐ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ1. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȐșȚȖȘȐȧ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȗ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ Ȑ ȉțȘȕȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ ȌȐșȒțȘșȖȊ, ȕȖ Ȑ Ȗ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȘȖȓȐ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȖȉȖȦȌȕȖȍ țȚȖȟȕȍȕȐȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ ȍȋȖ țȟȈșȚȕȐȒȈȔȐ. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȥȚȖ ȍȌȐȕșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ ȗțȚȤ șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ș ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȔȖȡȤ. ǷȖȔȐȔȖ ȌȐșȒțȘșȖȊ, ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȝ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȣșȠȐȔ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖȔ șȚȘȈȕȣ, ȚȈȒȎȍ ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȌȐșȒțȘșȣ:

x ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȔ Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȠȚȈȉȖȔ, ȗȖȔȖȋȈȦȡȐȍ ȖȜȖȘȔȐȚȤ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ;

x ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȒȖȈȓȐȞȐȐ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ, ȘȈȏȢȧșȕȧȦȡȐȍ ȞȍȓȐ ȉțȌțȡȍȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ;

x ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ ȕȈ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȔȕȍȕȐȍ ȒȈȒ ȊȕțȚȘȐ șȚȘȈȕȣ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȈ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȑ ȈȘȍȕȍ Ȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȈȊȓȐȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȍȋȖ Ȓ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȦ ȉțȌțȡȍȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ2.

ǷȖȔȐȔȖ ȌȐșȒțȘșȖȊ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȜȘȍȑȔ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ ȘȍȈȓȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. DzȈȒȖȊȣ ȍȋȖ ȞȍȓȐ? DzȈȒȖȊȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ, ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȈȧ, ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ Ȑ șȖȊȖȒțȗȕȈȧ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȔȖȡȤ? Ǫ ȒȈȒȐȝ șȜȍȘȈȝ Ȑ ȕȈ ȒȈȒȐȝ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȝ Ȗȕ țȧȏȊȐȔ? DzȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȍȋȖ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȈ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȊȓȐȧȦȚ ȕȈ ȊȣȉȖȘ ȊȣșȠȐȔ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖȔ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȝ ȠȈȋȖȊ? ǿȍȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ ȋȖȚȖȊ ȗȖȎȍȘȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ? ǿȚȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ ȐșȚȖȘȐȧ Ȗ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ? DzȈȒȖȊȈ ȉțȌȍȚ ȍȋȖ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȕȍȋȖ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ? ǰ șȈȔȣȔ șȓȖȎȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍȖșȧȏȈȍȔȣȔ Ȋ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȖȞȍȕȒȈȝ Ȑ ȘȈșȟȍȚȈȝ ȉȣȓȈ Ȑ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȊȖȓȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ.

DzȈȒ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȖȗȣȚ, ȊȣȊȖȌȣ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȖȞȍȕȒȈȝ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȝȕȐȒȐ, ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȝ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ Ȑ ȗȘ., ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȘȈȏȊȍȌșȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ, ȏȈȟȈșȚțȦ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ. ǪȣșȠȍȍ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ șȚȘȈȕȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ șȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȒȈȒ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȍȋȖ ȊȖȓȧ3.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȜȘȍȑȔ Ȋ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȐȏțȍȚ șȓȖȎȕȍȑȠȐȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȚȘȈȕșȓȧȞȐȐ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȧ ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌț ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȗȖșȚȈȕȖȊȒț Ȑ ȖȚȊȍȚȣ ȕȈ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȊȖȗȘȖșȣ:

1 Cohen, Supreme Command.

2 Murray, Thoughts on Effects-Based Operations, Strategy, and the Conduct of War, p. 17. 3 Ibid, pp. 8-9.

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