Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

1.2ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ ǶǩǬȅ ȌȖ Ȑ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ

ǬȖȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȥȚȈȗ. ǬȈȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȐȌȍȑ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓȖȊ Ǭțȥ Ȑ ǴȐȚȟȍȓȓȈ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȕȍȏȈȌȖȓȋȖ ȌȖ ȕȈȟȈȓȈ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȀȒȖȓȣ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȐ ȈȊȐȈȞȐȐ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȝ ȊȖȑșȒ ǹȀǨ (Air Corps Tactical School (ACTS)), ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȐȊȠȍȑ «ȚȖȕȒȖȍ, ȕȖ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȊȈȎȕȖȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ Ǭțȥ Ȑ ǴȐȚȟȍȓȓȈ. ǷȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȏȈȡȐȡȈȓȐ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ ȏȈȊȖȌȖȊ, ȐȕȌțșȚȘȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȞȍȕȚȘȖȊ Ȑ ȞȍȕȚȘȖȊ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȧ. ȀȒȖȓȈ Ȏȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȐȚȈȓȈ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ ȐȓȐ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȟ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȖȚ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȏȈȊȐșȐȚ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȏȈȊȖȌȖȊ Ȑ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȧ...»1. ǸȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȚȍȖȘȐȧȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȑ Ȑ «ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȖȑ șȍȚȐ» (ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȝ ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȏȊȍȕȤȧȝ) (industrial web), ȖȒȈȏȈȊȠȐȝ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȍ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ǹȀǨ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑȊȖȑȕȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȔȖȎȕȖȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ȊȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȘȖȖȉȘȈȏȖȊ ǶǩǬȅ.

ǷȘȍȗȖȌȈȊȈȚȍȓȐ ȀȒȖȓȣ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȐ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȓȐ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕțȦ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒț Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȔȍȎȌț șȖȉȖȑ șȍȒȚȖȘȖȊ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȝ ȌȘțȋ ș ȌȘțȋȖȔ ȚȘȈȕșȗȖȘȚȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȟȐȔȐ șȍȚȧȔȐ, Ȋ șȖȊȖȒțȗȕȖșȚȐ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡȐȔȐ ȖȉȡțȦ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕțȦ șȍȚȤ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ. ǷȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȓȖșȤ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ șȍȚȐ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȚ țȏȒȐȍ ȔȍșȚȈ (ȋȖȘȓȖȊȐȕȣ), țȌȈȘ ȗȖ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȚ Ȓ ȍȍ ȘȈșȗȈȌț Ȑ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖȔț ȗȈȘȈȓȐȟț ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ, «ȊȓȐȧȧ ȕȈ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȕȈȞȐȐ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȊȖȑȕț Ȑ ȕȈȕȖșȧ șțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ ȊȘȍȌ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȉȓȈȋȖȗȖȓțȟȐȦ Ȑ ȔȖȘȈȓȐ ȍȍ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕ2.

ǫȖȘȓȖȊȐȕȣ ȐȔȍȦȚ șȗȍȞȐȜȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȐ – ȖȕȐ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȌȘțȋȐȝ șȍȒȚȖȘȖȊ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ, Ȑȝ ȚȧȎȍȓȖ ȏȈȔȍȕȐȚȤ ȐȓȐ ȊȖșșȚȈȕȖȊȐȚȤ, Ȉ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȟț ȐȓȐ ȒȖȓȓȈȗșț Ȋșȍȑ ȐȕȌțșȚȘȐȐ3. ǶșȖȉȣȑ șȚȈȚțș ȐȔȍȦȚ ȥȓȍȒȚȘȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȚȘȈȕșȗȖȘȚȕȣȍ șȍȚȐ – ȌȊȈ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȈȎȕȣȝ șȍȒȚȖȘȈ, ȗȈȘȈȓȐȟ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ țȌȈȘȐȚȤ ȒȈȒ ȗȖ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȒȓȐȔȈȚț Ȋ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȖȔț ȒȖȔȗȓȍȒșț. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȈ ȀȒȖȓȣ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȐ ȈȊȐȈȞȐȐ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȝ ȊȖȑșȒ ǹȀǨ ȐșȝȖȌȐȓȈ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ șȍȚȍȑ ȉțȌȍȚ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȓ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȟț ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕ- ȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȔȗȓȍȒșȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȕȖ Ȑ Ȓ ȌȍȔȖȘȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȖȋȖ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȧ, ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȧ ȍȋȖ ȒȈȗȐȚțȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ.

1 Hansell, Haywood S. The Strategic Air War against Germany and Japan. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1986, p. 12.

2 Fairchild, Muir S. “National Economic Structures,” Maxwell Field, AL: Air Corps Tactical School Lecture, 5 April 1939, pp. 8-9.

3 Air Corps Tactical School Lecture Text. “Principles of War Applied to Air Force Action,” Maxwell Field, AL: ACTS Course “Air Force,” 1934-1935, p. 3.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǶȗȣȚ ȕȈȞȐșȚșȒȖȑ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ. ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȖȑ ȉȖȘȤȉȣ ȕȈ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȈȝ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ ȔȖȋȓȐ ȉȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȚȕȍșȍȕȣ Ȓ ǶǩǬȅ, ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȓȐșȤ Ȑ ȕȈȞȐșȚșȒȖȑ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȍȑ. ǿȚȖȉȣ ȊȣȐȋȘȈȚȤ «ǹȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ ȏȈ ǨȚȓȈȕȚȐȒț»1, ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȓȈ ȊȣȧȊȓȧȚȤ Ȑ ȗȖȘȈȎȈȚȤ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȚȖȟȒȐ Ȋ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȍ ǪȍȓȐȒȖȉȘȐȚȈȕȐȐ, șȚȈȘȈȧșȤ ȗȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ șȖȝȘȈȕȐȚȤ ȕȍȑȚȘȈȓȐȚȍȚ ǹȀǨ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȓȖ:

x ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȕțȦ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȣȊȈȚȍȓȤȕțȦ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȦ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡțȦ ȊȣȧȊȓȧȚȤ ȚȖȟȒȐ șȒȖȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȐȝ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ, ȗȖ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȕȈȕȖșȐȓȐșȤ ȉȣ țȌȈȘȣ;

x șȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ Ȑ șȉȈȓȈȕșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȍ Ȑ ȔȖȘșȒȐȍ (ȔȐȕȕȣȍ) ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ, ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȚȍȘȘȐȚȖȘȐȦ ǪȍȓȐȒȖȉȘȐȚȈȕȐȐ Ȑ ȍȍ ȊȖȌȣ;

x ȚȖȟȕȖ șȉȈȓȈȕșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕțȦ ȔȖȘșȒțȦ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȦ Ȋ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȊȖȌȈȝ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡțȦ șȖȝȘȈȕȐȚȤ ȕȍȑȚȘȈȓȐȚȍȚ ǹȀǨ;

x ȘȈȏȊȍȘȚȣȊȈȕȐȍ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȍȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ șȌȍȓȈȓȈ ȉȣ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȔȐȕȐȔȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȓȈ ȉȣ ȗȖȔȖȡȤ șȖ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ǹȀǨ2.

ǸȍȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȚȈȒȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȓȈ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ țȡȍȘȉȈ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȚȖȟȕȣȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ, ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȖȞȍȕȖȒ «ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ» ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȝ ȠȈȋȖȊ. ǺȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ șȖȏȌȈȊȈȓȐ ȉȣ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔțȦ ȉȈȏț Ȍȓȧ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȝ ȠȈȋȖȊ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ. ǿȚȖȉȣ Ȑȝ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ șȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȌȐȕȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ, ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ țȘȖȊȕȍȑ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ, ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ, ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ Ȑ ȗȘ. ȈȘȍȕȈȝ ȋȍȘȔȈȕșȒȖȋȖ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ. ǺȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȐ ȚȈȒȖȔ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȍ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȣȓȖ șȖȒȘȈȚȐȚȤ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ ȗȖȔȖȋȓȐ ȉȣ ȗȍȘȍȐȋȘȈȚȤ ǪȍȓȐȒȖȉȘȐȚȈȕȐȦ3.

ǰȕȖȋȌȈ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ, ȟȚȖ ț ȕȍȔȞȍȊ șȉȖȘ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ ȉȣȓȐ ȝțȎȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȖȊȈȕȣ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ț ǪȍȓȐȒȖȉȘȐȚȈȕȐȐ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȜȈȒȚȣ ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȧ ȐȔȍȓȈ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌșȚȊȖ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȖ Ȋșȍȝ șȜȍȘȈȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȌȍȓȈ: ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȍ, ȚȈȒȚȐȒȍ, ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȍ ȓȐȟȕȖȋȖ șȖșȚȈȊȈ, ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȍ, șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘ., Ȑ ǿȍȘȟȐȓȓȤ ȏȕȈȓ Ȗȉ ȥȚȖȔ. ǭȌȐȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȓȈ ǪȍȓȐȒȖȉȘȐȚȈȕȐȧ, ȉȣȓȈ ȋȐȉȒȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȒȘȍȈȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȉȘȐȚȈȕșȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈ, ȍȋȖ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ șȖȏȌȈȊȈȚȤ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏțȦ-

1 ǺȍȘȔȐȕ, ȊȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȑ Ȋ ȖȉȖȘȖȚ ǻȐȕșȚȖȕȖȔ ǿȍȘȟȐȓȓȍȔ Ȋ 1941 ȋȖȌț Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ șȍȘȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȐȝ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȑ, ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ. ǹȔ. Schoenfeld, Max. “Winston Churchill as War Manager: The Battle of the Atlantic Committee, 1941,” Military Affairs, Vol. 52, No. 3, Jul., 1988, pp. 122127; Churchill, Winston. “Winston Churchill Addresses A Joint Session Of Congress,” December 26, 1941.

2 Atkinson Simon R. and James Moffat. The Agile Organization: From Informal Networks to Complex Effects and Agility. Washington, DC: DoD Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) Publication Series, 2005, pp. 7879. 12 January 2011. http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Atkinson_Agile.pdf.

3 Ibid, p. 79.

280

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȡȐȍșȧ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ ȖȘȋȒȖȔȐȚȍȚȖȊ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȖȘȒȍșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȕȈ Ȋșȍȝ ȍȍ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ1. Ǫ ȚȖ Ȏȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ șȈȔȈ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȈ Ȑ ȖȚȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȊȓȈșȚȐ Ȋ ȕȈȞȐșȚȒȖȑ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ, Ȗ ȟȍȔ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȓȖșȤ ȊȣȠȍ, ȐșȒȓȦȟȈȓȈ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȊșȍȖȉȢȍȔȓȦȡȐȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȟȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȓȖ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȖȌȍȘȎȈȕȐȍ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ Ȋ «ǩȐȚȊȍ ȏȈ ǨȕȚȓȈȕȚȐȒț» Ȑ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ.

ǶȗȣȚ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȣȝ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ ȗȖ ȈȕȚȐȋȐȚȓȍȘȖȊșȒȖȑ ȒȖȈȓȐȞȐȐ. ǺȍȖȘȐȧ ȗȘȖ-

ȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȣȝ șȍȚȍȑ ȀȒȖȓȣ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȐ ȈȊȐȈȞȐȐ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȝ ȊȖȑșȒ ǹȀǨ, ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ ȉȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ țșȐȓȐȧȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȓȍȚȟȐȒȖȊ Ȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȒȖȊ, ȗȘȖȠȍȌȠȐȝ ȌȈȕȕțȦ ȠȒȖȓț, ȓȍȋȓȈ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊț ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȑ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȣȝ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ ȊȖ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ.ǵȍȔȍȞȒȈȧ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȈ ȉȣȓȈ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȈ ȕȈ ȘȧȌ șȍȒȚȖȘȖȊ: ȥȓȍȒȚȘȖȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȒȈ, ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȖ șȚȈȓȐ, ǫǹǴ, ȈȊȐȈȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ, ȚȘȈȕșȗȖȘȚ, ȞȊȍȚȕȈȧ ȔȍȚȈȓȓțȘȋȐȧ, ȔȈȠȐȕȖșȚȘȖȍȕȐȍ, ȗȐȡȍȊȈȧ ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ – ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȓȖ ȊȣȌȍȓȐȚȤ ȞȍȓȐ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ ȈȚȈȒ Ȑ ȖȉȢȍȔȣ ȉȖȔȉȖȔȍȚȈȕȐȧ2. ǬȈȓȍȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȈȔȐ3 ȉȣȓȈ ȊȣȌȍȓȍȕȈ șȍȚȤ ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȍȑ Ȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȈ ȗȘȐȖȘȐȚȍȚȕȖșȚȤ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȍȓȈ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ:

x ǪǪǹ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȈȊȐȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ, ȈȓȦȔȐȕȐȍȊȣȍ, ȔȈȋȕȐȍȊȣȍ Ȑ ȌȊȐȋȈȚȍȓȍșȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȏȈȊȖȌȣ;

x ȥȓȍȒȚȘȖȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȒȈ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȥȓȍȒȚȘȖșȚȈȕȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȖȌșȚȈȕȞȐȐ;

x ȚȘȈȕșȗȖȘȚ, ș ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȔ ȜȖȒțșȖȔ ȕȈ ȎȍȓȍȏȕȖȌȖȘȖȎȕȣȑ Ȑ ȊȖȌȕȣȑ;

x ǫǹǴ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȕȍȜȚȍȗȍȘȍȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȏȈȊȖȌȣ Ȑ ȏȈȊȖȌȣ ȗȖ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊț șȐȕȚȍȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȋȖȘȦȟȍȋȖ;

x ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȑ Ȍțȝ ȕȍȔȍȞȒȖȋȖ ȕȈȘȖȌȈ4.

ǴȈȕșțȘ ǶȓșȖȕ (Mancur Olson) ȖȉȘȈȡȈȍȚ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȐȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȑ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ șȔȖȋȓȐ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ș ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȊȣȏȖȊȈȔȐ, ȕȖ ȕȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ5. ǨȚȈȒȈ țȏȒȐȝ ȔȍșȚ șȍȚȍȑ ȘȍȠȈȓȈ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ, ȕȖ ȉȣȓȈ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȖȊȓȐȧȚȤ ȕȈ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȋȍȘȔȈȕșȒȖȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ șȌȊȐȋȐ Ȑ ȊȖșșȚȈȕȈȊȓȐȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȦ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘțȧșȤ Ȓ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȖȒ. «...șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȈ, Ȋ ȒȖȕȞȍ ȒȖȕȞȖȊ, ȕȍ ȗȖȝȖȎȈ ȕȈ ȝȖȘȖȠȐȍ ȟȈșȣ ȕȈ ȒȈȔȕȧȝ: ȖȕȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȚȤ ȒȈ- ȒțȦ-ȚȖ ȟȈșȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȚȤ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ. <...> Ǫ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȍ Ȑȏ-

1 Ibid, pp. 79-87.

2 Hansell, Haywood S. Jr., The Air Plan that Defeated Hitler. Atlanta, GA: Higgins-McArthur/Longino & Porter, Inc., 1972, pp. 49-51.

3 ǶȜȐȞȍȘȣ ȗȖ ȖȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȕȖȔț ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ, șȗȍȞȐȈȓȐșȚȣ ȠȚȈȉȖȊ ȗȖ ȊȖȗȘȖșȈȔ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȖȘȋȈȕȣ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ.

4 Ibid.

5 Olson, Mancur Jr., “The Economics of Target Selection for the Combined Bomber Offensive,” RUSI Journal, vol. CVII, November 1962, pp. 308-314.

281

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔ ȎȐȏȕȐ, Ȉ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȧ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ – ȖȉȡȐȔ ȔȍșȚȖȔ, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ Ȑ Ȋ ȔȐȘȕȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ, Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ. ǩțȌȍȚ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȍȍ șȘȈȊȕȐȊȈȚȤ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒț ș ȌȍȘȍȊȖȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȚȘȈșȚȐȚȤ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȊȍȚȒȐ, ȍșȓȐ șȘȍȏȈȦȚșȧ șȚȈȘȣȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ șȖ ȏȌȈȕȐȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑȘțȝȕȍȚ, ȍșȓȐȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȤ ȟȈșȚȤ ȍȋȖ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈ»1.

ǽȖȚȧ ȔȈșșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȒȐ șȣȋȘȈȓȐ șȊȖȦ ȘȖȓȤ Ȋ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȐ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ, ȖȕȐ ȐȔȍȓȐ ȟȈșȚȐȟȕȣȑ țșȗȍȝ. ǬȈȎȍ ȒȖȋȌȈ ȊȍșȕȖȑ 1944 ȈȊȐȈȞȐȧ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȣȝ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ ȌȖșȚȐȋȓȈ ȋȖșȗȖȌșȚȊȈ Ȋ ȕȍȉȍ ǶșȐ, ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȤ ȉȖȔȉȖȔȍȚȈȕȐȧ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȓȈ ȚȣșȧȟȐ șȈȔȖȓȍȚȖ-ȊȣȓȍȚȖȊ ȕȈ ȒȈȎȌțȦ ȞȍȓȤ. ǵȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ Ȋșȍȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȐȉȓȐȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ 20% ȉȖȔȉ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȓȈ Ȟȍȓȍȑ2. Ǭȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ țșȗȍȝȈ Ȋ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȓȖșȤ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȍ țȟȈșȚȐȍ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ șȈȔȖȓȍȚȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȉȣȓȈ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȕȐ ȖȌȕȈ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȈ ȚȖȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, Ȍȓȧ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȑ ȗȓȖȚȕȖșȚȐ Ȗȋȕȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȞȍȓȐ ȈȚȈȒȖȊȈȓȐșȤ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ. ǶȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȌȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȣ șȖșȘȍȌȖȚȖȟȍȕȐȧ șȐȓ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȖȌȕȖȑ ȞȍȓȐ (ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȔȍșȧȞȍȊ) ȌȈȊȈȓȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒț ȊȘȍȔȧ ȖȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȊȖșșȚȈȕȖȊȐȚȤ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. Ǫ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȍ, ǪǪǹ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȣȝ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ țȌȈȊȈȓȖșȤ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȟȍȔ ȖȌȕț șȐșȚȍȔț Ȋ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȔȍȎțȚȖȒ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ3.

ǷȧȚȤ ȓȍȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȖȒ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȍȓȐ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ, ȊȖȗȘȍȒȐ ȠȐȘȖȒȖ ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȕȖȔț ȔȕȍȕȐȦ, Ȓ ȒȖȕȞț ȊȖȑȕȣ ȉȖȓȍȍ 90% ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȔȖȡȕȖșȚȍȑ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ ȖșȚȈȊȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍȗȖȊȘȍȎȌȍȕȕȣȔȐ, șȖȏȌȈȊȈȧ șȚȈȘȚȖȊțȦ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȒț Ȍȓȧ ȗȖșȓȍȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ «ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȟțȌȈ»4. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȔȈșșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȒȐ ȕȍ șȔȖȋȓȐ ȖȒȈȏȈȚȤ șțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ, ȕȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȧ țȎȍ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖȉȣ Ȑȝ ȖȜȖȘȔȓȧȚȤ5. ǪȍȘȔȈȝȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȉȣȓ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȖȉȍȎȌȍȕ ȕȈ ȏȍȔȓȍ, Ȑ ȘȍȠȈȦȡțȦ ȘȖȓȤ Ȋ ȘȈȏȋȘȖȔȍ ȕȈȞȐșȚșȒȖȑ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ șȣȋȘȈȓȐ ȕȍ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ, ȕȖ ǹǹǹǸ Ȑ DzȘȈșȕȈȧ ȈȘȔȐȧ6.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȝȖȚȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȒȐ șȣȋȘȈȓȐ ȊȈȎȕțȦ ȘȖȓȤ Ȋ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȐ ȕȈȞȐșȚșȒȖȑ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ, ȔȕȖȋȐȍ ȌȖȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȣȔȐ. ǰȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȈ ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ ȥȓȈșȚȐȟȕȖȑ Ȑ ȋȐȉȒȖȑ «ȗȍȘȍȌ ȓȐȞȖȔ ȕȍȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȣȝ ȏȈȚȘțȌȕȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȚȘțȌȕȖșȚȍȑ», Ȉ Ȍțȝ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȖȋȖ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȖȒȈȏȈȓșȧ ȕȍțȓȖȊȐȔȖȑ ȞȍȓȤȦ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȍ ȉȣȓȈ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȈ7. ǴȈșșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȒȐ, ȌȈȎȍ ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ ȉȖȔȉȍȎȒȈ ǬȘȍȏȌȍȕȈ,

1 Ibid, p. 312.

2 The United States Strategic Bombing Survey Report (European War). September 30, 1945, reprinted in The United States Strategic Bombing Surveys (European War) (Pacific War). Maxwell Air Force Base, AL: Air University Press, 1987, p. 13. 12 January 2011. http://www.anesi.com/ussbs02.htm.

3 Deptula, David A. Effects-Based Operations: Change in the Nature of Warfare. Arlington VA: Aerospace Education Foundation, Defense and Airpower Series, 2001, pp. 8-9. 12 January 2011. http://www.aef.org/pub/psbook.pdf.

4 Peters, Ralph. «Bloodless Theories, Bloody Wars: Easy-win concepts crumble in combat,” Armed Forces Journal Vol. 143, No. 9, April 2006, pp. 34-36. 12 January 2011. http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/04/1813800.

5 Cheek, Effects-Based Operations, p. 81.

6 Peters, Bloodless Theories, Bloody Wars.

7 Cheek, Effects-Based Operations, p. 81.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȐ ȕȈ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȖȍ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȍ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȣȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ. Ǫ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȊȔȍșȚȖ ȗȈȕȐȒȐ Ȑ ȒȖȓȓȈȗșȈ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȚȤ ȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȊȖȏȘȈșȚȈȕȐȍ ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȒȐ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ țșȐȓȐȑ ȊȍȘȔȈȝȚȈ. ǪȚȖȘȈȧ ȔȐȘȖȊȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓȈ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȎȐȔȣ – ȒȈȒ ȌȍȔȖȒȘȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ, ȚȈȒ ȚȖȚȈȓȐȚȈȘȕȣȍ – ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐșȤ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȈȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐȐȌȖȉȐȚȤșȧȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȒȐșȖșȚȖȘȖȕȣȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ1.

ǰșȗȣȚȈȕȐȧ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȖȑ șȌȍȓȈȓȐ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȗȍȘȍșȔȖȚȘ ȘȧȌȈ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȖȒ, ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȓȐșȤ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȍ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȣȝ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ. ǷȖșȓȍȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȏ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓ, ȟȚȖ «...țȌȈȘȣ ȗȖ ȖȌȕȖȑ ȐȕȌțșȚȘȐȐ ș ȖȘțȎȐȍȔ, ȌȖșȚțȗȕȣȔ Ȋ 1943 Ȑ ȕȈȟȈȓȍ 1944ȋȋ., ȉȣȓȐ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȣȔ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȧȚȐȍȔ, ȚȘȍȉțȦȡȐȔ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȣȝ ȈȚȈȒ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȖȒȖȕȟȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ»2. ǪȖ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȍ ǪǪǹ ȉȣȓȐ «ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕȣ ȏȈȔȍȕȧȚȤ ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȤ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȣȔ ȚȖȕȕȈȎȍȔ...»3. ǷȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ șȌȍȓȈȓȈ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ Ȑ ȊȣșȖȒȖȚȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȖȘțȎȐȧ. ǻȎȍ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȕȈȟȈȓȖșȤ ȗȍȘȊȖȍ ȉȖȍȊȖȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȊȣșȖȒȖȚȖȟȕȣȝ ȉȖȍȗȘȐȗȈșȖȊ4. Ǫ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȑ ȋȖȌ ȊȤȍȚȕȈȔșȒȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȚȤ ȗȍȘȊȖȍ ȒȘțȗȕȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȖȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȉȖȔȉ ș ȓȈȏȍȘȕȣȔ ȕȈȊȍȌȍȕȐȍȔ5. ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȊȣșȖȒȖȚȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȖȘțȎȐȧ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȓȖ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ǷȍȘșȐȌșȒȖȔ ȏȈȓȐȊȍ (ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ «ǩțȘȧ Ȋ ȗțșȚȣȕȍ») ȖȚȖȑȚȐ ȖȚ ȔȈșșȖȊȣȝ ȈȊȐȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ țȌȈȘȖȊ. ǩȣȓȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ 9000 ȉȖȔȉ ș ȓȈȏȍȘȕȣȔ ȕȈȊȍȌȍȕȐȍȔ Ȑȏ ȗȘȐȉȓȐȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ 220000 ȈȊȐȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȉȖȔȉ. Ǫ ȘȧȌȍ șȓțȟȈȍȊ ȖȌȐȕ șȈȔȖȓȍȚ ș ȊȣșȖȒȖȚȖȟȕȣȔ ȉȖȍȗȘȐȗȈșȖȔ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȓ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ Ȏȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ, ȟȚȖ Ȑ ȘȍȑȌ 1000 șȈȔȖȓȍȚȖȊ ș ȉȖȓȍȍ ȟȍȔ 9000 ȉȖȔȉȈȔȐ ȊȖ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ6.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȊȖ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, ȗȖȚȍȘȗȍȓȐ ȕȍțȌȈȟț, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȉȍȏ ȈȗȘȖȉȈȞȐȐ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȍȍ țȓțȟȠȈȚȤ. ȅȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȖȒ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ ȕȐȏȒȖȑ ȉȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ ȒȈȒ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȦ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȖȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȖșȚȐ ȘȧȌȈ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ țȚȖȟȕȧȓȐșȤ Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȓȐșȤ țȎȍ ȗȖșȓȍ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ.

cago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1955; new imprint, Washington, DC: Office of Air Force History, 1983, p. 259. 5 Keaney, Thomas A. and Eliot A. Cohen. Gulf War Air Power Survey, Summary Report. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1993, p. 226.

6 Ibid, p. 226.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

1.3ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȖșȕȖȊ ǶǩǬȅ ȊȖ ȊȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȖȓȖȊȐȕȍ 20 ȊȍȒȈ

ǶȗȍȘȈȞȐȧ «ǩțȘȧ Ȋ ȗțșȚȣȕȍ»

ǬȎȖȕ ǪȈȘȌȍȕ. ǬȈȓȤȕȍȑȠȈȧ ȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȧ ȐȌȍȑ, ȓȍȋȠȐȝ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊț ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ, ȘȧȌȖȔ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ș ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ ȖȗȣȚȖȔ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒȐȝ ȓȍȚȟȐȒȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȗȖȚȘȧșȍȕȣ ȗȖȘȖȑ ȉȍșșȔȣșȓȍȕȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȔ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ǪǪǹ ȊȖ ǪȤȍȚȕȈȔȍ, Ȑ Ȑȝ ȎȍȓȈȕȐȍȔ ȗȖȊȣșȐȚȤ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȑ1. ǶȗȍȘȈȞȐȧ «ǩțȘȧ Ȋ ȗțșȚȣȕȍ» șȚȈȓȈ ȗȍȘȊȖȑ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȖȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤȦ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȈȚȈȒțȦȚșȧ ȕȍ ȞȍȓȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȕȖ ȍȋȖ șȐșȚȍȔȣ2. ǶșȕȖȊȣ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ ȉȣȓȐ ȏȈȓȖȎȍȕȣ ȗȖȓȒȖȊȕȐȒȖȔ ǪǪǹ ǹȀǨ ǬȎȖȕȖȔ ǪȈȘȌȍȕȖȔ (John Warden) Ȋ ȕȈȟȈȓȍ 90-ȣȝ, ȒȖȋȌȈ Ȗȕ ȗȘȖȝȖȌȐȓ șȓțȎȉț Ȋ șȖșȚȈȊȍ ȋȘțȗȗȣ «ǿȍȘȕȈȧ ȌȣȘȈ» (Black Hole), ȊȝȖȌȐȊȠȍȑ Ȋ șȖșȚȈȊ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȖȊ ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȨȕȕȖȋȖ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ (ǶǾDz) ǹȀǨ (U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM)) ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ «ǩțȘȧ Ȋ ȗțșȚȣȕȍ». ǫȘțȗȗȈ ȏȈȕȐȔȈȓȈșȤ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȉȖȍȊȖȋȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ǪǪǹ. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȞȍȓȤ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȓȈșȤ Ȋ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ țȌȈȘȖȊ ȗȖ ȘȧȌț șȐșȚȍȔ ǰȘȈȒȈ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ «ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ», ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȊȠȍȋȖșȧ Ȋ ȊȣȊȖȌȍ ȈȚȈȒțȍȔȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȑȏ-ȗȖȌ ȐȘȈȒșȒȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȧ3.

ǰȌȍȐ ǬȎȖȕȈ ǪȈȘȌȍȕȈ, ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȐȊȠȍȋȖ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȒȈȒ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, Ȉ ȉțȌțȡȍȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ – ȒȈȒ ȗȈȘȈȓȓȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȏȈȓȖȎȐȓȐ ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȉȈȏȐș ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ Ȋ ȒȖȕȞȍ 20 ȊȍȒȈ4. ǨȕȈȓȐȏ șȐșȚȍȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȓșȧ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȗȧȚȐ ȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȍșȒȐȝ «ȒȖȓȍȞ» ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ», șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȊȖȒȘțȋ ȊȣșȠȍȋȖ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ǪȈȘȌȍȕ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȉȣșȚȘȖȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ ȗȘȍȌȖșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȔ șȐȓȈȔ ǹȀǨ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȣ Ȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȊȣȧȊȓȧȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȞȍȓȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȕȐȝ Ȑ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȚȤ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ, ȗȖȌȌȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȦ. ǹȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȍ ȀȚȈȚȣ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȚȤ ȗȈȘȈȓȓȍȓȤȕțȦ ȈȚȈȒț ȎȐȏȕȍȕȕȖ ȊȈȎȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, ȊȣȏȣȊȈȦȡȐȝ «ȠȖȒ Ȑ ȚȘȍȗȍȚ»5 Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ Ȑ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȝ Ȓ Ȑȝ ȉȣșȚȘȖȔț ȒȖȓȓȈȗșț. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ

1 Beagle, T.W. Effects-Based Targeting: Another Empty Promise? Maxwell Air Force Base, AL: Air University Press, 2000, pp. 38-57. 12 January 2011. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA391749.

2 Murray, Williamson. Gulf War Air Power Survey (GWAP), Vol. 2, Part I, Operations, Department of the Air Force, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1993;

Watts, Barry D. and Thomas A. Keaney. Gulf War Air Power Survey (GWAP), Volume 2, Part 2, Effects and Effectiveness, Department of the Air Force, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1993. 12 January 2011. http://www.fas.org/sgp/library/gwapsv2.doc.

3 Admiral, Effects-Based Operations, p. 14.

4 DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǪȈȘȌȍȕȈ ȌȈȕȈ Ȋ ǷȘȐȓȖȎȍȕȐȐ 2 – ȗȍȘȍȊȖȌȍ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȍȑ ȋȓȈȊȣ Ȑȏ ȘȈȉȖȚȣ. Fadok, David S.

“John Boyd and John Warden: Airpower’s Quest for Strategic Paralysis,” in Phillip S. Meilinger, (ed.). The Paths of Heaven: The Evolution of Airpower Theory. Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University Press, 1997.

5 ǺȍȘȔȐȕ ȊȗȍȘȊȣȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕ Ȋ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ Ullman, Harlan and James Wade. Shock and Awe: Achieving Rapid Dominance. Washington, DC: Department of Defense Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) Publication Series, 1996.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȕȖȊȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ «ȌȍȓȈȦȚ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȕȈȏȊȈȓ ȐȌȍȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ»1.

ǬȥȊȐȌ ǬȍȗȚțȓȈ. ǬȈȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ș ȉȘȐȋȈȌȕȣȔ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓȖȔ ǬȥȊȐȌȖȔ ǬȍȗȚțȓȈ (David Deptula) – ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȊȍȌțȡȐȝ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȖȊ ȋȘțȗȗȣ «ǿȍȘȕȈȧ ȌȣȘȈ», Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȖȔ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ «ǩțȘȧ Ȋ ȗțșȚȣȕȍ». ǫȍȕȍȘȈȓ ǬȍȗȚțȓȈ Ȋ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ ȖșȕȖȊȣȊȈȓșȧ ȕȈ ȉȈȏȐșȕȣȝ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧȝ ȗȈȘȈȓȓȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȗȧȚȐ ȒȖȓȍȞ ȗȖȓȒȖȊȕȐȒȈ ǪȈȘȌȍȕȈ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȝ Ȓ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȟț ȍȋȖ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ șȚȘțȒȚțȘ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ Ȋ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ǬȎȖȕȈ ǪȈȘȌȍȕȈ, ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȊȠȍȋȖșȧ ȕȈ ȉȖȍȊȖȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ șȐȓ, ǬȥȊȐȌ ǬȍȗȚțȓȈ ȖȉȖȉȡȈȍȚ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȕȈ Ȋșȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ – ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ, ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕțȦ ȐȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȔȖȡȤ2. ǷȘȐȥȚȖȔ ȊȈȎȕȖȍ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȐȌȈȍȚșȧ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȔț ȗȖȌȝȖȌț Ȓ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȦ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ǪȏȋȓȧȌȣ ǬȥȊȐȌȈ ǬȍȗȚțȓȈ ȊȗȍȘȊȣȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȐȏȓȖȎȍȕȣ Ȋ ȔȖȕȖȋȘȈȜȐȐ «ǶȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ: ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ»3, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ Ȗȕ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȖȘȣȊ Ȋ ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ, Ȋ ȗȍȘȊțȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ șȚȍȓș-ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ Ȑ ȊȣșȖȒȖȚȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȖȘțȎȐȧ, ȗȘȐȊȍȓ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ: «ǪȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȖȓȓȍȌȎȐ ȗȘȍȗȖȌȈȦȚ ȌȊȍ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ – ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ Ȑ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȍ (attrition and annihilation). ǪȖȑȕȈ Ȋ ǯȈȓȐȊȍ ȗȘȖȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȓȈ ȌȘțȋțȦ – ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȈȘȈȓȓȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȐșȚȖȡȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ, ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȤȕȖȍ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȍ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȒȈȒ ȖȒȖȕȟȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȔȍȚȖȌ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ țșȗȍȝȈ Ȑ ȔȍȘȣ ȗȘȖȋȘȍșșȈ, ȖȉȣȟȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȘȧȍȔȖȋȖ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȍȔȣȝ șȐȓ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȊȝȖȌȖȊ. ǷȘȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȕȚȖȔ țșȗȍȝȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȗȖȓȈȋȈȧșȤ ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȍ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ ȊȣȝȖȌȖȊ. ǰȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ șȗȖșȖȉȈ ȕȈȠȍȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȐȓ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȐȊȍșȚȐ Ȓ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȔț Ȑȝ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȦ. <...> DzȖȔȉȐȕȈȞȐȧ șȚȍȓș-ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ Ȑ ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȐ ȗȍȘȍșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗ ȔȈșșȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ. ǴȈșșȈ, Ȋ șȔȣșȓȍ șȒȖȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȋȖ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ șȐȓ, țȎȍ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȉȧȏȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ ȕȈ șȐșȚȍȔț șȐȓ, ȐȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ, ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ. Ǭȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘțȦȡȐȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ <...> ȉȖȓȍȍ ȕȍ ȕțȎȕȣ ȗȘȍȌȊȈȘȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȡȍȕȐȍ, ȌȐșȗȖȏȐȞȐȧ Ȑ ȊșȍșȚȖȘȖȕȕȧȧ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȈ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȝ șȐȓ. <...> ǹțȝȖȗțȚ-

1 Warden John A. III. “The Enemy as a System,” Airpower Journal, Vol. 9, No. 1, Spring 1995, pp. 40-55; p. 54. 12 January 2011. <http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj95/spr95_files/warden.htm>

2 Rickerman, Effects-Based Operations, pp. 14-15. 3 Deptula, Effects-Based Operations, pp. 8-9.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȉțȌțȚ ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ, ȕȖ ȔȈșșȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȝ șȐȓ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ șȖȒȘțȠȐȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȈȉșȖȓȦȚȕȖȑ ȗȘȍȌȗȖșȣȓȒȖȑ Ȍȓȧ țșȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȧ ȕȈȌ ȕȐȔ»1.

ǸȈșȠȐȘȐȊ ǶǩǬȅ ȌȖ șȗȖșȖȉȈ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓ ǬȍȗȚțȓȈ ȜȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ ȕȈ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȍ, Ȉ ȕȍ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧȝ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȧ. Ƕȕ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȤ șȐșȚȍȔȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈȕȍșȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒț, șȖșȘȍȌȖȚȈȟȐȊȈȧșȤ ȕȈ ȞȍȓȍȗȖȓȈȋȈȕȐȐ ȕȍ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȕȖ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȗȘȍșȍȟȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑȝ ȌȖȓȎȕȖȋȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ. ǬȥȊȐȌ ǬȍȗȚțȓȈ șȟȐȚȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȣ ȒȈȒ ȟȍȘȍȏ țșȗȍȠȕȖȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȐȕțȎȌȍȕȐȧ, șȐȓȣ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȍȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȔȍȚȖȌȈȔȐ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȔȐ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ ȕȈȌ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔȐ, ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ Ȋ ȘȧȌȍ șȓțȟȈȍȊ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȚȤșȧ ȗȘȖȍȞȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ șȐȓȣ, Ȉ ȕȍ ȍȍ ȗȘȐșțȚșȚȊȐȍȔ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȧȔȣȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ Ȋ ȚȘȍȉțȍȔȖȔ ȘȈȑȖȕȍ2.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ǬȥȊȐȌ ǬȍȗȚțȓȈ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȐȓ ȝȖȓȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ, ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȦ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ, ȟȚȖ șȖȏȌȈȊȈȓȖ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȑ ȉȈȏȐș Ȍȓȧ ȕȈȝȖȎȌȍȕȐȧ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȗȖșȖȉȖȊ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ. ǭȋȖ ȔȖȕȖȋȘȈȜȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȓȈ șȚȈȚțș ǶǩǬȅ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ șȚȈȓȈ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȈȧ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȣȔ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȖȔ, ȊȣȝȖȌȧȡȐȔ ȏȈ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȣ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǪǪǹ. ȅȚȖ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȓȖ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȖȊ, ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤșȒȐȍ ȞȍȕȚȘȣ Ȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȍȍ ȖȚȕȍșȚȐșȤ Ȓ ȕȍȑ Ȑ ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȣ, ȗȘȐȏȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȖȞȍȕȐȚȤ ȍȍ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ3.

ǶȗȍȘȈȞȐȧ «ǹȖȦȏȕȈȧ șȐȓȈ», DzȖșȖȊȖ

ȅȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȒȖșȖȊșȒȖȑ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ 1999 ȋȖȌȈ ȉȣȓȈ ȖȞȍȕȍȕȈ ȒȈȒ ȕȐȏȒȈȧ. ǪȖȍȕȕȣȑ țȡȍȘȉ, ȕȈȕȍșȍȕȕȣȑ șȍȘȉșȒȖȑ ȈȘȔȐȐ, ȖȒȈȏȈȓșȧ ȕȍșțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ, Ȑ ȖȕȈ Ȋ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ șȖȝȘȈȕȐȓȈ șȊȖȦ ȉȖȍșȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ4. ǪȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȐșȚȍȉȓȐȠȔȍȕȚ ǹȀǨ, Ȋ ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ǪǪǹ, ȉȣȓ ȘȈșșȚȘȖȍȕ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȓ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȤ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȗȘȐȊȍȌțȚ Ȓ ȒȈȗȐȚțȓȧȞȐȐ ǴȐȓȖȠȍȊȐȟȈ, ȒȈȒ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȕȐȏȒțȦ. ǵȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȐȕȚȍȕșȐȊȕȈȧ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȈȧ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȊȍȓȈ Ȓ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȧȔ ȐȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ ǹȍȘȉȐȐ, ȖȕȈ ȖȒȈȏȈȓșȤ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ǴȐȓȖȠȍȊȐȟ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ șȌȈȓșȧ, ȗȘȖȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȊ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȣȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȓȐȌȍȘȈȔ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȍ ț ȕȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȉȣȓȈ ȉȣ Ȋ

1 Ibid, p. 18.

2 Ibid, p. 19.

3 Rickerman, Effects-Based Operations, pp. 15-16. 4 Atkinson, The Agile Organization, p. 146.

286

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȐȏȊȓȍȒȈȚȤ Ȑȏ ȕȍȍ țȘȖȒȐ Ȑ ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȤ ȐȔ1.

ǹȚȖȘȖȕȕȐȒȐ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ șȟȐȚȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȏ Ȑ ȘȍȒȖȔȍȕȌȈȞȐȐ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ2. ǶȌȐȕ Ȑȏ ȗȍȘȊȣȝ ȊȣȊȖȌȖȊ Ȑ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȑ Ȓ ȉțȌțȡȐȔ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȧȔ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȊȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȐșȒȓȦȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ. ǭșȓȐ ȘȈȕȍȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȐ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȓȐșȤ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȍȑ, ȚȍȗȍȘȤ ȗȖȧȊȐȓȖșȤ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȣȔ. ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȈȚȈȒȖȊȈȚȤ Ȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ, ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ǶǩǬȅ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣ ȓȐȠȤ ȟȍȘȍȏ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȍ ȊȣșȖȒȖȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȑ șȍȚȍȑ, ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȊȕțȚȘȐ Ȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȈȔȐ, ȚȈȒ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȈȟȍ țȟȈșȚȊțȦȡȐȔȐ Ȋ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ3.

DzȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ ǹȀǨ

ǬȈȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ DzȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈ-

ȕȐȧ ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ (DzǶǹ) ǹȀǨ (U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM)),

ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȓȖ ȍȍ Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ ȒȈȒ șȗȖșȖȉ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȑ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȞȍȓȖșȚȕȣȑ Ȑ șȐșȚȍȔȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȔȣȑ ȕȈ ȊșȍȔ șȗȍȒȚȘȍ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ. ǺȈȒȖȍ ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȧȊȕȖȍ șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ș ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈȔȐ Ȑ ȖȘȐȍȕȚȈȞȐȦ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȑ ȕȍ șȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȕȖ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ. Ǫ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ ȥȚȖ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȖ șȖșȘȍȌȖȚȈȟȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȐ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ Ȑ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȝ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈȝ. DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȚ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȊȍșȤ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȗȘȍȌȒȘȐȏȐșȕțȦ ȜȈȏț, ȒȘȐȏȐș, ȋȖȘȧȟțȦ ȊȖȑȕț Ȑ ȗȖșȚȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȕȖȍ țȘȍȋțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ.

ǺȈȒȖȍ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ: șțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȓȐ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ ȝȖȚȧ ȉȣ Ȋ ȒȖȕȞȈȝ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔȈ, ȐȓȐ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȐȔșȧ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȕȖșȚȐ, Ȉ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖ

1 Clark, Wesley, Waging Modern War: Bosnia, Kosovo and the Future of Combat. New York: PublicAffairs, LLC, 2001, p. 417.

2 Davis, Effects-Based Operations, pp. 2-3.

3 Atkinson, The Agile Organization, pp. 148-151.

287

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

țȟȈșȚȊțȦȚ Ȋ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȐ șȘȍȌȣ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ, ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ țȟȈșȚȊțȧ Ȋ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȐ țșȓȖȊȐȑ Ȑ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȉțȌțȡȐȝ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ1. Ǫ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ Ȋ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ ȐșȚȍȉȓȐȠȔȍȕȚȍ Ȑ ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȍ ȐȌțȚ ȌȍȉȈȚȣ Ȗ ȗȘȈȊȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȋȖ ȚȘȈȒȚȖȊȈȕȐȧ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȐȧ ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕȈ ȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȣ.

2. ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȒȈȒ ȔȍȚȖȌ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ

ǻșȐȓȐȧ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȣ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȍȘȍȌȖȊȣȝ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚ-

ȊȐȑ (Joint Advanced Warfighting Program), ǰȕșȚȐȚțȚȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ ǹȀǨ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȓȐ ȘȈșȠȐȘȐȚȤ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȦ ǶǩǬȅ, ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȐȊ ȍȍ ȕȈ șȜȍȘț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ2. ȅȚȖ șȌȍȓȈȓȖ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ ȕȍ ȗȘȖșȚȖ Ȗ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ Ȑ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ, ȕȖ șȗȖșȖȉȍ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ (ǩǬȅ-ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȐ), ȖȗȐȘȈȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȕȈ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȟȍȚȣȘȍ ȗȖșȚțȓȈȚȈ:

1.ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȤ șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋșȍȝ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ ȠȈȋȖȊ (ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ, ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ, ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ) Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȕȣȝ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ;

2.ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȈȧ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȧ, ȗȘȐ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ, ȗȓȈȕȖȊ Ȑ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȓ șȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȍ Ȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ;

3.ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ ȖȉȌțȔȣȊȈȕȐȧ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ ȗȍȘȊȖȋȖ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȊȚȖȘȖȋȖ, ȚȘȍȚȤȍȋȖ Ȑ n ȗȖȘȧȌȒȈ;

4.ȗȘȖȌțȔȣȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ Ȑ Ȑȝ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȑ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȌȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȈ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ3.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ǶǩǬȅ ȗȖ șȊȖȍȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, șȚȈȘȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ, ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚȤ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȐ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȗȘȍȌțȋȈȌȣȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, șȖȉȣȚȐȧ Ȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕțȦ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȦ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȕȈ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȑ ȖșȕȖȊȍ. ǺȈȒȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ ȕȈȗȖȔȐȕȈȍȚ ȠȈȝȔȈȚȕțȦ ȗȈȘȚȐȦ ȋȘȖșșȔȍȑșȚȍȘȖȊ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȔȍȚȖȌȐȟȍșȒȐ Ȑ ȚȡȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȗȘȖȌțȔȣȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȑ ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȦȚșȧ Ȋșȍ ȝȖȌȣ ȉțȌțȡȍȑ ȗȈȘȚȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȏȈȚȍȔ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȣȍ ȝȖȌȣ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȚȐȐ. DzȈȒ Ȑ ȋȘȖșșȔȍȑșȚȍȘ, ȗȘȖȊȖȌȧȡȐȍ ǶǩǬȅ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ șȚȘȍȔȐȚȤșȧ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȖșȟȐȚȈȚȤ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȝȖȌȖȊ ȊȗȍȘȍȌ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ țȔȍȚȤ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȚȤ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ Ȋ ȍȌȐȕȖȔ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȍ, ȒȖȋȌȈ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ șȊȖȐ ȠȈȋȐ Ȑ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ șȊȖȐȝ ȊȖȑșȒ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȌȘțȎȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ Ȑ ȕȍȑȚȘȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȚȍȓȍȑ.

1 Rickerman, Effects-Based Operations, p. 16.

2 Cheek, Effects-Based Operations, p. 72.

3 Gleeson, New Perspectives on Effects-Based Operations, p. 6.

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