Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȘȈȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȗȘȐȑȚȐ ȕȈ șȔȍȕț ȉȖȍȊȣȔ ȘȈȌȐȖșȍȚȧȔ. ǵȖȊȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȉȍȏțșȓȖȊȕȖ, ȗȖȓȍȏȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȏȈȒȘȣȚȖȋȖ ȖȉȔȍȕȈ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȍȑ ȕȈ ȊȣșȠȐȝ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȖȕȐ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȖȚȌȈȟȐ ȗȘȐȒȈȏȖȊ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȈȔȐ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȏȊȍȕȈ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȋȖȓȖș ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȈ Ȑ ȖȉȡȐȑ ȥȜȐȘ, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȔȣȑ ȘȈȌȐȖșȍȚȧȔȐ. Ǫ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȧ ȋȖȓȖș ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȈ, ȍȋȖ șȗȖȒȖȑșȚȊȐȍ Ȑ ȊȓȈȌȍȕȐȍ șȐȚțȈȞȐȍȑ ȉȣȓȐ Ȑ ȖșȚȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍȏȈȔȍȕȐȔȣȔȐ1.

ǴȥȚȚ ǴȥȚȤȦș (Matt Matthews) Ȋ șȊȖȍȔ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț, ȟȚȖșȊȖȑ ȊȒȓȈȌ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȕȍțȌȈȟț ȊȕȍșȓȈ Ȑ ȟȘȍȏȔȍȘȕȖ șȓȖȎȕȈȧ Ȑ ȕȍȘȍȈȓȐșȚȐȟȕȈȧ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȈȧ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȈ ǨǶ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȈȧșȧ ȕȈ ǶǬǩȅ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ șȉȐȊȈȓȈ ș ȚȖȓȒț Ȑ ȊȊȖȌȐȓȈ Ȋ ȏȈȉȓțȎȌȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȖȊ. ǷȖ ȍȋȖ ȔȕȍȕȐȦ, ȖșȕȖȊȕȈȧ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ ǨǶ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȓȈșȤ Ȋ «ȟȘȍȏȔȍȘȕȖȔ țȊȓȍȟȍȕȐȐ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒȖȑ ȐȌȍȍȑ ǶǩǬȅ. ǶǩǬȅ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȞȍȓȤȦ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȊȔȍșȚȖ ȚȖȋȖ ȟȚȖȉȣ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȈȚȤ ȍȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ. <...> ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕȞȣ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȓȐ ǶǩǬȅ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȐ țȌȈȘȈ ȕȈȏȍȔȕȣȝ ȊȖȑșȒ, ȕȖ ȕȍ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȣ ȍȔț»2. «ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȖȜȐȞȍȘț ȘȍȏȍȘȊȐșȚț ǸȖȕț ǺȐȘȈ (Ron Tira), ȕȖȊȈȧ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȈ șȔȍȡȈȓȈ “ȜȖȒțș ȕȈ ȒȖȋȕȐȚȐȊȕțȦ șȚȖȘȖȕț ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȔȍȌȐȈ-ȊȖȑȕț”. ǪȔȍșȚȖ ȚȖȋȖ ȟȚȖȉȣ țȉȐȊȈȚȤ ȗȓȖȝȐȝ ȗȈȘȕȍȑ, ȒȈȒ ȥȚȖ ȉȣȓȖ Ȋ șȚȈȘȣȍ ȌȖȉȘȣȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȈ, ȖȕȐ ȝȖȚȍȓȐ șȖȏȌȈȚȤ “șȖȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ” ȕȈ ȕȈȠȍȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȍ Ȑ “ȒȖȋȕȐȚȐȊȕȖȍ ȊȖșȗȘȐȧȚȐȍ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ” ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȖȑ». ǹȓȖȎȕȈȧ, ȕȍȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȈȧ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȓȖȋȐȧ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ ȕȈ 170 șȚȘȈȕȐȞȈȝ ȉȣȓȈ țșȊȖȍȕȈ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȓȈșȤ ȊȣșȠȐȔ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȕȣȔ șȖșȚȈȊȖȔ ȊȗȓȖȚȤ ȌȖ țȘȖȊȕȧ ȌȐȊȐȏȐȐ, Ȋ ȚȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȒȈȒ ȚȣșȧȟȐ ȖȜȐȞȍȘȖȊ ȕȐȎȕȍȋȖ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȏȊȍȕȈ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȐȚȈȓȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ șȚȈȘțȦ. DzȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȣ, ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȦȡȐȍ ș ȓȐȟȕȣȔ șȖșȚȈȊȖȔ, ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȋ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ, ȌȖșȚțȗȕȖȑ ȔȈȕȍȘȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȊȖȒȘțȋȌȊțȝȊȍȡȍȑ – ȟȚȖȔȣȌȖȓȎȕȣȏȈȝȊȈȚȐȚȤ ȐȟȚȖȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȤ3.

ǺȈȒȎȍ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȊșȚȘȍȚȐȚȤ ȔȕȍȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȈ ȕȍțȌȈȟ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ ș ȟȘȍȏȔȍȘȕȣȔ țȊȓȍȟȍȕȐȍȔ ǨǶ ȈȕȚȐȚȍȘȘȖȘȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧȔȐ Ȋ țȡȍȘȉ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȔ, Ȑ ǰȏȘȈȐȓȤ ȖȒȈȏȈȓșȧ ȕȍ ȋȖȚȖȊ ȊȖȍȊȈȚȤ ș «ǽȍȏȉȖȓȓȈ», ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȊȍȓȈ șȍȉȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȒȈȒ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȈȘȔȐȧ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȚȍȘȘȖȘȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȋȘțȗȗȈ. Dz ȚȈȒȖȔț Ȏȍ ȊȣȊȖȌț ȗȘȐȝȖȌȧȚ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȐ ǰȕșȚȐȚțȚȈ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȈȘȔȐȐ ǹȀǨ (Army's Combat Studies Institute), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȟȐȚȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ ǰȏȘȈȐȓȤ ȗȘȖȐȋȘȈȓ ȊȖȑȕț, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ «ȒȖȕȚȘȗȖȊșȚȈȕȟȍșȒȐȍ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȖ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȓȐ ȍȋȖ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȖ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȦ ȒȖȕȊȍȕȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ»4.

1 Eshel, David. “Winograd's Blessing in Disguise: Last Wake up Call for Israel,” in Defense Update online bi-monthly defense magazine, February, 2008. 12 January 2011. http://www.defense-update.com/analysis/analysis_020208_winograd.htm.

2 Matthews, Matt M. We Were Caught Unprepared: The 2006 Hezbollah-Israeli War. U.S. Army Combined Arms Center, Long War Series Occasional Paper 26, Leavenworth, KS: Combat Studies Institute Press, 2008, pp. 61-62.

12 January 2011. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA477851.

3 Ibid, pp. 27-28.

4 Dreazen Yachi J. “Officer Questions Petraeus's Strategy Iraq War Veteran Says Focus on Counterinsurgency Hinders Ability to Fight Conventional War,” Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2008; Page A3. 12 January 2011. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120753402909694027.html.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǴȈȘȚȐȕ ȊȈȕ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌ șȟȐȚȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȦ șȖȗȘȖȊȖȎȌȈȓȈ ȌȓȐȕȕȈȧ șȍȘȐȧ ȖȠȐȉȖȒ ȕȈ ȥȚȈȗȍ ȒȈȒ ȍȍ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ: ȖȠȐȉȒȐ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȘȈȏȊȍȌȒȐ Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȘȘȈȏȊȍȌȒȐ, ȔȖȉȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ, ȓȖȋȐșȚȐȒȐ, ȏȈȡȐȚȣ ȚȣȓȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘ. ǹ ȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȖȕȐ ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ Ȗȉ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȐ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖȑ ȘȍȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ț ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȖȋȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȓȈ ȊȕȍȠȕȦȦ ȉȘȈȊȈȌț ȕȈ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ ȗȘȐ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȐ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ, ȞȍȕȖȑ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȓȐșȤ ȚȧȎȍȓȣȍ ȗȖȚȍȘȐ. Ǫ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧȝ ȐȏȘȈȐȓȤșȒȐȍ șȖȓȌȈȚȣ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȐȔȍȓȐ ȕȍșȖȔȕȍȕȕȖȍ Ȑ ȗȖȌȈȊȓȧȦȡȍȍ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌșȚȊȖ, Ȑ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȉȣȓȐ ȉȣ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȌȘțȋȐȔȐ, ȗȘȖȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȑ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ ȚȈȒȖȑ Ȏȍ ȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȐȏȔ1.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, șȖȊȖȒțȗȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐȟȐȕ, ȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȚȕȍșȍȕȈ Ȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȕȍȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȐȏȔț Ȑ ȕȍȘȍȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȊȣșȠȍȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ șȚȘȈȕȣ, ȗȘȐȊȍȓȈ Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ Ȓ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȦ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ. ǩȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ ȖȠȐȉȒȈȔ, ȌȖȗțȡȍȕȕȣȔ ȕȈ ȊȣșȠȐȝ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, ǨǶ ǰȏȘȈȐȓȧ ȊșȚțȗȐȓȈ Ȋ ȊȖȑȕț ș ȕȖȊȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȖșȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȈȔȐ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȏȊȍȕȈ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȖȑ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔȐ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȔȐ Ȋ șȜȍȘȍ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȖȋȖ ȊȐȌȈ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȧ, ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ șȊȖȌȧȡȐȔȐ ȕȈ ȕȍȚ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ Ȑ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ. ǸȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȑ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȗȓȖȝȖ ȖșȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ Ȑ ȕȍȗȖȕȧȚȣȍ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȐȌȍȐ, ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ Ȑ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȊȍȌțȚ Ȓ ȌȍȏȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȖȕȐȎȍȕȐȦ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ. ǼȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ șȚȘȈȕȣ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ șȔțȚȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȓȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ Ȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ǨǶ, ȊȊȧȏȈȊȠȐșȤ Ȋ ȊȖȑȕț ș ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȖȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȗȓȖȝȖ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȓȖ.

ǶȗȍȘȈȞȐȧ «ǹȊȖȉȖȌț ǰȘȈȒț»

Ǫ ȕȖȧȉȘȍ 2007 ȋȖȌț ȊȣȠȓȈ șȚȈȚȤȧ ǵȖȧ ȀȈȝȚȔȈȕȈ (Noah Shachtman) «DzȈȒ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȗȖȟȚȐ ȗȘȖȐȋȘȈȓȐ ȊȖȑȕț: Ȋ ǰȘȈȒȍ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȕȣȔȐ șȍȚȧȔȐ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ, ȕȍ ȥȓȍȒȚȘȖȕȕȣȍ»2, ȗȖȓțȟȐȊȠȈȧ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȑ ȖȚȒȓȐȒ Ȑ șȖȌȍȘȎȈȡȈȧ ȒȘȐȚȐȒț ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǾǪ Ȑ ǹǾǶ. ȀȈȝȚȔȈȕ ȗȐȠȍȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȋșȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȣȝ șȚȘȈȕ Ȋ ǨȜȋȈȕȐșȚȈȕȍ, ǰȘȈȒȍ Ȑ dzȐȊȈȕȍ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍțȌȈȟȕȣȔȐ Ȍȓȧ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȍȑ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖȔ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȑ ȕȖȊȣȍ șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȣȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ. ǬȈ, șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȍȕ, Ȑ ȔȕȖȋȐȍ ȒȘȐȚȐȒȐ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕȣ șȖȋȓȈșȐȚȤșȧ, ȟȚȖ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒȐȍ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ șȚȈȓȐ ȕȈȔȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȔȐ Ȋ ȖȉȕȈȘțȎȍȕȐȐ Ȑ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. DzȈȒ Ȋ ǨȜȋȈȕȐșȚȈȕȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ ǰȘȈȒȍ ȗȘȈȊȧȡȐȍ

1 Eshel, Winograd's Blessing in Disguise.

2 Shachtman, Noah. “How Technology Almost Lost the War: In Iraq, the Critical Networks Are Social – Not Electronic,” in Wired Magazine, 27 October 2007. 12 January 2011. http://www.wired.com/politics/security/magazine/15-12/ff_futurewar.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȘȍȎȐȔȣ ȗȈȓȐ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȔȋȕȖȊȍȕȕȖ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ǹǾǪ Ȑ ǹǾǶ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐșȤ ȔȈȓȖȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȔȐ ȗȘȐ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ ȗȖ șȚȈȉȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȊȖșșȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȐȦ ǨȜȋȈȕȐșȚȈȕȈ Ȑ ǰȘȈȒȈ. ǪȣșȖȒȖȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ, ȕȖ ȔȈȓȖȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȑșȒȈ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȚȤ ȘȍȎȐȔ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ.

ǺȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǾǪ Ȑ ǹǾǶ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȚ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȐȍ Ȑ ȒȘȈȚȒȖșȘȖȟȕȣȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȖȑ ȈȘȔȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȚȧȎȍȓȖȑ ȚȍȝȕȐȒȖȑ Ȑ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȍȔ, ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘțȍȚ ȚȍȘȘȐȚȖȘȐȦ, ȐȔȍȍȚ ȓȐȌȍȘȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȔȖȎȕȖ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȐȚȤ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȖȕȐ ȕȍ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȧȚ Ȍȓȧ ȒȖȕȚȘȗȖȊșȚȈȕȟȍșȒȐȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ, ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ ǬȎȖȕ ǵȈȋȓ (John Nagl), ȖȌȐȕ Ȑȏ ȈȊȚȖȘȖȊ ȕȖȊȖȋȖ «ǸțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ ȗȖ ȒȖȕȚȘȗȖȊșȚȈȕȟȍșȒȖȑ ȉȖȘȤȉȍ» (Counterinsurgency Field Manual 3-24/MCWP 3- 33.5). ǷȖ ȔȕȍȕȐȦ ǵȈȋȓȈ, ȘȍȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ ǹǾǪ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȐ ȗȖȔȖȋȈȦȚ ȕȈȔ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȥȚȖ ȓȐȠȤ ȕȍȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉțȌțȚ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ ǹȀǨ.

ǫȍȕȍȘȈȓ ǬȥȊȐȌ ǷȍȚȘȥțș (David Petraeus), ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ șȖȋȓȈȠȈȧșȤ ș ǬȎȖȕȖȔ ǵȈȋȓȖȔ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ, ȟȚȖ ȍșȓȐ ȘȈȕȍȍ Ȗȕ șȒȍȗȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȖȚȕȖșȐȓșȧ Ȓ șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȣȔ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔ, ȚȖ Ȋ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǾǪ ȕȈ șȈȔȖȔ Ȍȍȓȍ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ Ȑ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȍȚ 230-ȔȐȓȓȐȈȘȌ- ȕȣȍ ȏȈȚȘȈȚȣ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ ǹǾǪ1. ǬȎȖȕ ǫȈȘșȚȒȈ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȊșȚȘȍȚȐȓșȧ ȈȊȚȖȘ șȚȈȚȤȐ, șȟȐȚȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǾǪ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓȈ șȊȖȦ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧȝ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ Ȋ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧȝ ȗȖ șȚȈȉȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ. ǭșȓȐ ǹǾǪ ȌȈȓȐ ȋȌȍ-ȚȖ ȚȘȍȡȐȕț, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ ȉȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ ȕȍȗȖȊȖȘȖȚȓȐȊȖșȚȐ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȐ ǴȐȕȐșȚȍȘșȚȊȈ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȣ, ȚȖ ȥȚȖ ȕȍ ȗȖȊȖȌ ȊȏȘȣȊȈȚȤ ȊșȦ ȚȍȖȘȐȦ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȓȦȌȐ ȟȈșȚȖ țȗȖȚȘȍȉȓȧȦȚ șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕțȦ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȓȖȋȐȦ, ȕȍ ȊȗȖȓȕȍ ȖȚȌȈȊȈȧ șȍȉȍ ȖȚȟȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȥȚȖ ȚȈȒȖȍ.

ǪȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȣ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔț ȗȖȌȝȖȌț, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ

șǹǾǪ, ȀȈȝȚȔȈȕ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ șȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȚȈȒ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȝ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȍȚȧȝ Ȑ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ ȗȘȐȔȍȘ «șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȒȖȔȈȕȌ ȔȍșȚȕȖșȚȐ» (Human Terrain Teams). ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȀȈȝȚȔȈȕ, ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȧ ȒȘȐȚȐȒț ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǾǪ, ȕȈ șȈȔȖȔ Ȍȍȓȍ ȖȉȖșȕȖȊȣȊȈȍȚ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ țȏȒȖȋȖ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȉȣȓȖ șȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȊȣșȠȍȔț ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔț ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊț ǹȀǨ, ȕȖ ȕȍ șȈȔȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ. Ǫ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȍȘȍȒȖșȣ ȓȐȒȊȐȌȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȒȈȒ Ȋ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȈȝ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȈȊȚȖȘȈ ȈȒȞȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȘȖȓȤ Ȑ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȈ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȍȚȍȑ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ ȗȖȌȊȖȌȧȚ ȍȋȖ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ țȎȍ șȌȍȓȈȕ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ǹǾǪ Ȑ ǹǾǶ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȧ, ȗȘȐ-

1 Shachtman, How Technology Almost Lost the War.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȔȍȕȧȍȔȖȋȖ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ǶǩǬȅ, Ȑ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȓȈȕȍ ȊȗȖȓȕȍ ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȖȑ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȐȚ ȘȍȒȖȔȍȕȌȈȞȐȧ ǫȈȘșȚȒȐ ȈȊȚȖȘț: «ǵȍȓȤȏȧ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ ȐȓȐ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȍȚȤ, ȐȓȐ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧ. Ǫȣ ȕțȎȌȈȍȚȍșȤ Ȋ ȖȉȍȐȝ».

5. ǷȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȣ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȣȝ ȊȖȑȕ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ

ǸȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȊȕȍȌȘȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǾǪ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ șȜȍȘț, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȥȚȖ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș. ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ șȜȍȘȈ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȧȔ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȔȖȎȕȖ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȉțȌȍȚ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȚȤșȧ țșȒȖȘȍȕȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȒȖȋȌȈ șȚȘȈȕȣ, ȏȈȗȈȏȌȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ș ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȣ, ȐȔȍȦȚ ȠȈȕșȣ ȉȍȏȕȈȌȍȎȕȖ ȖȚșȚȈȚȤ.

ǷȍȘȊȈȧ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȞȐȧ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȖȒ ȗȖ ȊȕȍȌȘȍȕȐȦ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǾǪ Ȑ ǹǾǶ șȚȈȘȈȓȈșȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ. ǷȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȓȐșȤ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ șȊȍșȚȐ Ȓ ȔȐȕȐȔțȔț ȜȈȒȚȖȘ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȖ ȊȣȒȓȦȟȈȓșȧ Ȑȏ ȞȍȗȐ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ ȖȠȐȉȖȒ Ȑ țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȧ șȒȖȘȖșȚȐ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ǹȍȚȤ Ȑ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȗȘȍȌȖșȚȈȊȐȓȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȊȣșȖȒȐȝ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȝ șȊȧȏȍȑ ȗȖ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈȔ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ1. ǷȖȧȊȐȓȈșȤ ȌȈȎȍ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȥȑȜȖȘȐȧ Ȑ ȖȡțȡȍȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ șȘȈȡȐȊȈȕȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ țȘȖȊȕȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚ șȊȍșȚȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȓ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȦ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ.

ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȗȍȘȊȈȧ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȞȐȧ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȖȒ Ȑ țșȐȓȐȑ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȊșȚțȗȐȓȈ Ȋ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚ ș ȗȘȐȘȖȌȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ Ȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȖȑ Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ. ǽȖȚȧ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȈȊȚȖȕȖȔȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ șȚȈȓȐ ȚȍȝȕȐȟȍșȒȐ ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȍȔȣ Ȑ ȉȓȍșȚȧȡȍ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȓȐ ȕȈ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȐșȗȣȚȈȕȐȧȝ, ȖȕȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȣȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȔȣȔȐ Ȓ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȋȖ ȉȖȧ, Ȉ ȕȍȌȖȗțșȚȐȔȈȧ ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȘȍȏȒȖ ȏȈȚȘțȌȕȧȓȈ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔț ȏȊȍȕț ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȦ Ȓ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ. ǰȓȓȦȏȐȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ Ȓ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȔ, șȖȏȌȈȊȈȍȔȈȧ ȕȖȊȣȔȐ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔȐ, ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ ȕȍȌȖȓȋȖȊȍȟȕȖȑ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȖȕȈ ȗȖȔȖȋȓȈ ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǾǪ2.

ǷȍȘȊȈȧ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȞȐȧ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȖȒ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȖșȚȐ ȗȖȔȖȋȓȈ ȗȘȐȑȚȐ Ȓ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȦ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ Ȑ ȐȌȍȑ, ȊȝȖȌȧȡȐȝ Ȋ ȧȌȘȖ șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȣȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȑ Ȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȑ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖșȖȏȕȈȕȐȦ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȔȕȖȋȐȍ Ȑȏ ȕȐȝ ȕȍ ȕȖȊȣ, ȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȦ Ȑ țȚȖȟȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȑ ȒȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȣșȓȐ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ǷȖȧȊȐȓȖșȤ

1 Smith, Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations, p. 296. 2 Ibid, p. 297.

272

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǾǪ Ȑ ǹǾǶ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȑ ȞȍȓȐ, ȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚ, ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȞȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ ș ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑȝ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȓ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧȔ Ȋ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕțȦ ȥȗȖȝț. ǪȕȍȌȘȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ șȍȚȍȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȣȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȌȊțȝșȚțȗȍȕȟȈȚȣȔ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȔ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȈ ȗȍȘȊȖȔ ȥȚȈȗȍ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȑ ȊȕȍȌȘȧȍȚșȧ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕțȦ ȥȗȖȝț (ǹǾǶ), Ȉ ȕȈ ȊȚȖȘȖȔ ȖșȔȣșȓȧȦȚșȧ ȞȍȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ȕȖȊțȦ ȥȗȖȝț. ǷȖșȓȍȌȕȍȍ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȜȘȍȑȔȈ ǶǩǬȅ. ǰȔȍȕȕȖ Ȋ ȚȈȒȖȔ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǾǪ, ǹǾǶ Ȑ ǶǩǬȅ, ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡȐȍ ȊȔȍșȚȍ ȥȔȉȘȐȖȕȈȓȤȕțȦ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȦ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȍȔ ȘȈȏȊȍȘȕțȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ 21 ȊȍȒȈ.

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ǫdzǨǪǨ 5. DzǶǵǾǭǷǾǰȇ ǶǷǭǸǨǾǰDZ, ǩǨǯǰǸǻȆȁǰǽǹȇ ǵǨ ǬǶǹǺǰǮǭǵǰǰ ȅǼǼǭDzǺǶǪ

DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ «ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ (ǶǩǬȅ) (effectsbased operations) ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ ȊȓȐȧȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ Ȑ ȔȕȖȋȖȋȘȈȕȕȖȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȣșȓȐ. Ǫ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȐȔȍȍȚșȧ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȚȘȈȒȚȖȊȖȒ Ȑ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȑ ǶǩǬȅ, ȟȚȖ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȍȚ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȘȐȏȊȈȕȈ ȖȚȘȈȏȐȚȤ ȌȈȕȕȈȧ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ. ǹȈȔȈ ȐȌȍȧ, ȓȍȎȈȡȈȧ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ǶǩǬȅ, ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȗȘȖșȚȈ. DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ Ȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȕȈ ȖȒȈȏȈȕȐȐ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȘȈȏȋȘȖȔȍ ȍȋȖ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ. DzȈȒȐȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ ȖȒȈȎțȚ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ Ȑ ȕȍȑȚȘȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȚȍȓȍȑ? DzȈȒ ȖȕȐ ȊȖșȗȘȐȔțȚ Țȍ ȐȓȐ Ȑȕȣȍ ȠȈȋȐ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȈȘȍȕȈȝ? ǺȈȒȈȧ ȗȖșȚȈȕȖȊȒȈ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȖȚ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ ȟȍȋȖ-ȚȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȋȖ, ȟȍȔ ȖȌȍȘȎȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ. Ǫ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȘȈȏȋȘȖȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ Ȑ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ – Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȍȔȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȗȘȐȕțȌȐȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȔț ȒțȘșț ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ1.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȊȣȝȖȌȐȚ ȏȈ ȘȈȔȒȐ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȐ Ȑ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȔȣșȓȐȚȤ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȚȍȈȚȘȖȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȕȖ ȊșȍȔȐ ȈȘȍȕȈȔȐ, ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ. ǺȈȒȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȉȍȏțșȓȖȊȕȖ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȣȏȖȊȖȔ Ȑ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ Ȋ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȐ. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǰȕșȚȐȚțȚț ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ (Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)), ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ, ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȍ ȕȈ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ǶǩǬȅ (ǩǬȅ-ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ), ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȐ șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȕȣȝ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ș ȗȘȖȟȐȔȐ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ – ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ, ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ, ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ2. ǺȈȒȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, ȍșȓȐ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍȔ Ȑ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȧșȕȖ Ȑ ȟȍȚȒȖ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȚȤ, ȒȈȒȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ Ȗȕ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȒȈȒȐȝ șȘȍȌșȚȊ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȔȍȎȌț ȓȐȞȈȔȐ,

1 Ibid.

2 Gleeson, Dennis J. et al. «New Perspectives on Effects-Based Operations: Annotated Briefing,” Alexandria, VA: Joint Advanced Warfighting Program, Institute for Defense Analyses, 2001, p. 6. 12 January 2011. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA395129.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ (ȊȣșȠȍȍ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ șȚȘȈȕȣ) Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ1. ȅȚȖ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȧ ȖȉȡȍȋȖ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȊ, ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑ, șȔȣșȓȖȊ – ȚȖȋȖ ȧȏȣȒȈ, ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ Ȑ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȦȚ ȌȘțȋ ȌȘțȋȈ Ȋșȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ ȕȈȞȐȐ. DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȗȘȍȚȍȕȌțȍȚ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒț ȚȈȒȖȋȖ țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȧȏȣȒȈ.

ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ǶǩǬȅ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȚȐȗȖȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȔȣșȓȐȚȤ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȧȔȐ șȜȍȘȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȊȣȝȖȌȈ ȏȈ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȣ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȣ2. ǩǬȅ-ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȟȍȔ-ȚȖ ȕȖȊȣȔ, Ȑ țșȗȍȠȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȐȒȐ Ȋșȍȝ ȊȘȍȔȍȕ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȊȣȝȖȌȐȓȐ ȏȈ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȣ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ, șȚȈȘȈȧșȤ Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ ȗȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȖȞȍȕȐȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȤ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȍȋȖ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȧ. ǶȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚ șȍȉȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ, ȖȗȐȘȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȕȈ ȕȈȌȍȎȌț Ȑ ȊȍȘț Ȋ ȚȖ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȕȖ ȕȍ ȍȋȖ ȏȕȈȕȐȍ3. ǨȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔț ȐșȒțșșȚȊț ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ ț ȒȓȈșșȐȒȖȊ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȔȣșȓȐ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ǹțȕȤ-Ǿȏȣ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȟȐȚȈȓȐ, ȟȚȖ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȊȈȎȕȍȍ șȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȖȒȈȏȈȕȐȐ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ, ȖȜȖȘȔȓȍȕȐȐ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȋȘȖȔȍ ȍȋȖ șȐȓ. ǶȕȐ ȗȘȍȒȘȈșȕȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓȐ, ȟȚȖ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ țȘȖȊȍȕȤ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȕȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ. ǪȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȑ ȕȍ șȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖȉȣ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȐȚȤ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȊȍșȚȐ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȕȖ ȏȈșȚȈȊȐȚȤ ȍȋȖ șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȤ ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȔț Ȍȓȧ ȕȈș ȒțȘșț ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȍȌȒȖșȚȤȦ, Ȑ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȍ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ ȕȈ ȞȍȓȐ Ȑ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȍ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ǶǩǬȅ ȗȘȍȚȍȕȌțȍȚ ȕȈ ȐȕȖȍ, ȉȖȓȍȍ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ.

1 Admiral, Kevin D. Effects-Based Operations: Enhancing Operational Art and Design in the 21st Century. Norfolk, VA: National Defense University, Joint Forces Staff College, 2005, p. 23. 12 January 2011. http:// handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA436609.

2 Cebrowski, Arthur K. Admiral. Military Transformation. A Strategic Approach. Departament of Defense, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, Fall 2003, p. 34. 12 January 2011. http://www.iwar.org.uk/rma/resources/ transformation/military-transformation-a-strategic-approach.pdf.

3 Gleeson, New Perspectives on Effects-Based Operations, pp. 17-18.

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I. ȅǪǶdzȆǾǰȇ ǰ ǸǨǯǪǰǺǰǭ DzǶǵǾǭǷǾǰǰ ǶǩǬȅ

1. ȅȊȖȓȦȞȐȧ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ

DzȈȒ țȎȍ ȖȚȔȍȟȈȓȖșȤ, ȕȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ șțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȚȘȈȒȚȖȊȖȒ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ. Ǫ ȚȈȒȖȑ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȞȍȓȍșȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȖ ȕȈȟȈȚȤ ș ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȍȍ ȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȐ, ȟȚȖ, ȗȖȔȐȔȖ ȊșȍȋȖ ȗȘȖȟȍȋȖ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȐȌȍȐ, ȓȍȎȈȡȐȍ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ǶǩǬȅ, ȕȍ ȕȖȊȣ1. ǰșȚȖȘȐȒȐ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȓȍȋȒȖ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ Ȋșȍȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȚȈȒ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȈȟȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȓȈ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȣ ǶǩǬȅ. ǻșȗȍȠȕȣȍ ȗȖȓȒȖȊȖȌȞȣ ș ȚȍȔ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȣȔ țșȗȍȝȖȔ ȗȣȚȈȓȐșȤ ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȞȍȓȐ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȧȦȚșȧ ȏȈȌȈȟȍ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȣ Ȓ ȉȖȍȊȣȔ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ȕȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȝ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȓȐșȤ Ȋ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ șȗȖȘȈȌȐȟȍșȒȐ Ȑ Ȋ șȐȓț ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȗȘȐȟȐȕ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȓȐ Ȓ ȕȍȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȔț țșȗȍȝț2.

Ǫ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȣ ȒȈȒ ȉȓȍșȚȧȡȐȝ ȗȖȉȍȌ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȖȓȕȣȝ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȒȘȈȑȕȍȑ ȕȍȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ǶǩǬȅ. ǰȔȍȕȕȖ ȗȖȥȚȖȔț ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȕȐȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ ș ȖȗȖȘȖȑ ȕȈ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȕȈțȒț șȖȗȘȧȎȍȕȖ ș ȖȉȢȍȒȚȕȣȔȐ ȚȘțȌȕȖșȚȧȔȐ. ǰșȚȖȘȐȧ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȍȑ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ, ȟȚȖ ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȍȚ ȖȉȘȈȚȐȚȤșȧ ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖ Ȓ ȕȈșȓȍȌȐȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȣșȓȐ, Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞț. Ǫ șȊȖȍȔ ȚȘțȌȍ «Ƕ ȊȖȑȕȍ» DzȓțȏȍȊȐȞ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ: «ǬȈȎȍ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȈȧ ȞȍȓȤ ȕȈȠȐȝ ȊȖȑȕ – ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȞȍȓȤ – ȕȍ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȉȣȊȈȍȚ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȗȘȖșȚȈ; ȕȖ ȝȖȚȧ ȉȣ ȖȕȈ Ȑ ȉȣȓȈ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ, ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȔ ș ȚȈȒȐȔ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖȔ țșȓȖȊȐȑ Ȑ șȖȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȑ, ȟȚȖ ȞȍȓȤ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȈ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȋȖ ȈȒȚȈ, ȕȖ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȚșȧ ȓȐȠȤ ȘȧȌȖȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȓȐ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȒȘțȗȕȣȝ Ȑ ȔȍȓȒȐȝ ȈȒȚȖȊ, șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ Ȋ ȖȌȕȖ ȞȍȓȖȍ. DzȈȎȌȣȑ Ȑȏ ȥȚȐȝ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȈȒȚȖȊ ȍșȚȤ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȟȈșȚȤ ȞȍȓȖȋȖ, ȐȔȍȦȡȈȧ ȗȖȥȚȖȔț șȊȖȦ ȖșȖȉțȦ ȞȍȓȤ; ȗȘȐ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȍȑ ȖȕȈ Ȑ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ș ȥȚȐȔ ȞȍȓȣȔ»3.

ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȟȍȔ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȖȘȒȍșȚȘȖȊȒȐ Ȋșȍȝ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤ-

1 Rickerman, Leonard D. Effects-Based Operations: A New Way of Thinking and Fighting. Fort Leavenworth, KS: School of Advanced Military Studies, Army Command and General Staff College, 2003, p. 10. 12 January 2011. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA416050.

2 U.S. Air Combat Command. Effects Based Operations. White Paper. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, May 2002, p. 1.

3 Clausewitz, Carl von On War, Michael Howard and Peter Paret, trans., Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976, p. 227, 566.

276

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ ȗȍȘȍȌ ȓȐȞȖȔ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȍȋȖ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤȦ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȔ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔ. ǵȈȞȐȧ, șȗȖșȖȉȕȈȧ ȊȍșȚȐ ȚȈȒțȦ ȊȖȑȕț, ȌȖȓȎȕȈ țȔȍȚȤ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȉȣșȚȘȣȍ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȕȐ ȊȣȏȣȊȈȦȚ, – ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȊȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǶǩǬȅ1.

1.1 ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ ǶǩǬȅ Ȋ ȕȈȟȈȓȍ 20 ȊȍȒȈ

ǹȈȔȣȔȐ ȘȈȕȕȐȔȐ ȏȈȡȐȚȕȐȒȈȔȐ ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ ȕȈȟȈȓȈ 20-ȋȖ ȊȍȒȈ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȐȚȈȓȤȧȕșȒȐȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓ ǬȎțȓȐȖ Ǭțȥ (Giulio Douhet) Ȑ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒȐȑ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓ ǪǪǹ ǻȐȓȤȧȔ ǴȐȚȟȍȓȓ (William Mitchell), ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȖȚȞȖȔ ǪǪǹ ǹȀǨ2. ǫȍȕȍȘȈȓ Ǭțȥ ȘȈȏȊȐȓ șȊȖȦ ȚȍȖȘȐȦ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ǪǪǹ ȕȈ ȜȖȕȍ ȉȍȏȊȣȝȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȜȘȖȕȚȈȝ ǷȍȘȊȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȚțȗȐȒȖȊȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȕȈ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ. Ǫ șȊȖȍȑ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ «DzȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȌțȝȖȔ»3 (1921ȋ.) Ǭțȥ ȈȗȍȓȓȐȘȖȊȈȓ Ȓ ȘȧȌț ȗȘȖșȚȣȝ Ȑ ȧșȕȣȝ ȌȖȊȖȌȖȊ Ȑ șțȎȌȍȕȐȑ:

1.șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȗȘȖȊȍșȚȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȍ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȐȔ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȍȔ;

2.țșȗȍȠȕȣȍ ȕȈșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣ;

3.ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ șȒȖȘȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȊȣșȖȚȣ ȕȈ ȚȘȍȝȔȍȘȕȖȑ ȈȘȍȕȍ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȓȐȠȈȦȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȏȈȡȐȚȕȣȍ ȔȍȘȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȕȈșȚțȗȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ;

4.șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȕȈȞȐȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ ȋȖȚȖȊȈ Ȓ ȕȈȟȈȓț ȔȈșșȐȊȕȣȝ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȖȒ ȊȘȈȎȍșȒȐȝ ȞȍȕȚȘȖȊ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȧ, ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ – țȌȈȘȐȚȤ ȗȍȘȊȣȔȐ Ȑ țȌȈȘȐȚȤ șȐȓȤȕȖ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȤ Ȍțȝ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȖȋȖ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȕȍ ȖșȚȈȊȓȧȧ ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊț ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȕȐȒȈȒȖȋȖ ȌȘțȋȖȋȖ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ, ȒȘȖȔȍ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȖșȐȚȤ ȔȐȘȈ;

5.ȟȚȖȉȣ ȥȚȖȋȖ ȌȖȉȐȚȤșȧ, Ȋ ȗȍȘȊțȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣ ȕȍȏȈȊȐșȐȔȣȍ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ, ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȈȔȐ ȌȈȓȤȕȍȋȖ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȐȔȐșȧ Ȋ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖȑ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȋȖȚȖȊȕȖșȚȐ4.

Ǭțȥ ȗȐșȈȓ: «dzȦȌȧȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȉȖȔȉȧȚ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ, ȗȖșȒȖȓȤȒț Ȑȝ ȉȖȔȉȐȓȐ ȊȟȍȘȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȏȕȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȑȝ șȕȖȊȈ ȉțȌțȚ ȉȖȔȉȐȚȤ ȏȈȊȚȘȈ Ȑ ȕȍȚ ȒȖȕȞȈ Ȑȝ ȔțȟȍȕȐȧȔ, Ȋ ȒȖȕȞȍ ȒȖȕȞȖȊ ȊȖȏȏȖȊțȚ Ȓ ȔȐȘț»5. «ǬȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ șȒȖȘȖ ȕȈșȚțȗȐȚ ȊȘȍȔȧ, ȒȖȋȌȈ, ȟȚȖ-

1 Admiral, Effects-Based Operations, p. 15.

2 Ott, William J. “Maj Gen William «Billy» Mitchell: A Pyrrhic Promotion,” Air & Space Power Journal, Vol. 20, December 1 2006, pp. 27-33. 12 January 2011. http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj06/win06/ ott.html.

3 Douhet, Giulio. The Command of the Air. Translated. by Dino Ferrari. New York: Coward-McCann, 1942. Reprint, Washington, DC: Office of Air Force History, U.S.AF, 1983 <1921, 1927>.

4 MacIsaac, David. “Voices from the Central Blue: Air Power Theorists,” in Paret Peter (ed.). Makers of Modern Strategy: From Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1986, p. 630.

5 Douhet, Giulio. The Command of the Air, p. 276.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȉȣ ȗȖȓȖȎȐȚȤ ȒȖȕȍȞ țȎȈșț Ȑ șȚȘȈȌȈȕȐȧȔ, șȈȔ ȕȈȘȖȌ, ȊȍȌȖȔȣȑ ȐȕșȚȐȕȒȚȖȔ șȈȔȖșȖȝȘȈȕȍȕȐȧ, ȊȖșșȚȈȕȍȚ Ȑ ȗȖȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȗȖȓȖȎȐȚȤ ȒȖȕȍȞ ȊȖȑȕȍ – ȍȡȍ ȌȖ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒ ȈȘȔȐȧ Ȑ ȜȓȖȚ șȔȖȋțȚ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȖȚȔȖȉȐȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤșȧ»1.

Ǫ ǹȀǨ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȘȈȕȕȐȔ Ȑ ȋȖȘȧȟȐȔ șȚȖȘȖȕȕȐȒȖȔ ǪǪǹ șȚȈȓ ǻȐȓȤȧȔ ǴȐȚȟȍȓȓ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȊȠȐȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌȣ Ǭțȥ Ȓ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒȐȔ țșȓȖȊȐȧȔ. ǴȐȚȟȍȓȓ ȖȌȐȕ Ȑȏ ȗȍȘȊȣȝ ȗȖȕȧȓ, ȟȚȖ ȈȊȐȈȞȐȧ ȕȍșȍȚ ș șȖȉȖȑ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȉțȌțȡȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ. «ǷȘȐȠȍșȚȊȐȍ ǪǪǹ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȧȔȖ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȎȐȏȕȍȕȕȣȝ ȞȍȕȚȘȖȊ Ȑ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȕȍȑȚȘȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȐȓȐ ȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȤ Ȑȝ, ȗȘȐȌȈȓȐ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȖȊȣȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ șȚȈȘȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ»2. DzȈȒ Ȑ Ǭțȥ, ǴȐȚȟȍȓȓ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȓ Ȗ ȚȖȚȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȉțȌȍȚ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȚȤ ȊșȦ ȕȈȞȐȦ. ǪȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȈȚȈȒȈȔ ȉțȌțȚ ȗȖȌȊȍȘȋȈȚȤșȧ «Ȋșȍ ȎȐȏȕȍȕȕȖ ȊȈȎȕȣȍ ȞȍȓȐ ȊȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖȑ ȕȈȞȐȐ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȍȑ ȊȍșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕț, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȒȈȒ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȐȍ (ȋȖȘȖȌȈ, ȈȋȘȈȘȕȈȧ, ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȍȕȕȈȧ, ȚȘȈȕșȗȖȘȚȕȈȧ ȐȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ), ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ (ȈȊȐȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȏȈȊȖȌȣ, ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ țȟȍȉȕȣȍ ȏȈȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ, ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȖ, șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ ȒȖȔȔțȕȐȒȈȞȐȐ, ȕȍȜȚȧȕȈȧ ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȖ ǫǹǴ»3.

ǪșȓȍȌ ȏȈ Ǭțȥ ǴȐȚȟȍȓȓ ȊȍȘȐȓ, ȟȚȖ ȏȈȌȈȟȈ ǪǪǹ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȐ ȋȖșȗȖȌșȚȊȈ Ȋ ȊȖȏȌțȝȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȖ șȚȈȚȤ ȗȘȍȓȦȌȐȍȑ ȓȦȉȣȝ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȝ ȐȓȐ ȔȖȘșȒȐȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ. ǭșȓȐ ȖȕȖ ȉțȌȍȚ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȕȖ, ȚȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ șȔȖȎȍȚ ȌȐȒȚȖȊȈȚȤ țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȔȐȘȈ «Ȋ ȓȦȉȖȔ ȔȍșȚȍ ȚȍȘȘȐȚȖȘȐȐ ǹȀǨ, ȋȌȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȖȎȍȓȈȍȚ»4. ǵȍȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȤ ǪǪǹ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȓȈșȤ ǴȐȚȟȍȓȓț ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ șȐȓ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȐȝ ȊȖȑȕȈȝ: «ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȧ Ȋșȍȝ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ ȈȊȚȖȕȖȔȕȣȔ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ șȐȓ, ȖșȊȖȉȖȎȌȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȖȚ șȊȖȍȑ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȈȘȔȐȐ»5.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓȖȊ Ǭțȥ Ȑ ǴȐȚȟȍȓȓȈ, ȌȍȓȈȦȡȐȍ ȈȒȞȍȕȚ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȈȚȈȒȐ ȕȍȏȈȊȐșȐȔȣȝ ǪǪǹ, ȗȘȐȏȊȈȕȕȣȍ șȓȖȔȐȚȤ ȊȖȓȦ Ȓ ȉȖȘȤȉȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, – ȐȌȍȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖ șȐȝ ȗȖȘ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ ȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȍȑ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ ǪǪǹ ǹȀǨ6, – ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ Ȑȝ ȒȈȒ ȖșȕȖȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȐȒȖȊ ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ Ȋ 20 ȊȍȒȍ. ǺȊȖȘȟȍșȚȊȖ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓȖȊ ȕȍȌȊțșȔȣșȓȍȕȕȖ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȣ ǩǬȅ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ ȕȍȓȤȏȧ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȚȤ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ș ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȗȘȖȘȣȊȈȔȐ ȒȖȕȞȈ 20 Ȑ ȕȈȟȈȓȈ 21 ȊȍȒȈ7.

1 Ibid, p. 58.

2 Mitchell, William. Skyways: A Book on Modern Aeronautics. Philadelphia: J. B. Lippincott Company, 1930, p. 255. 3 Mitchell, William. Winged Defense: The Development and Possibilities of Modern Air Power – Economic and Military. New York: Dover Publications Inc., 1988, reprint of 1928 original publication, pp. 10, 126-127.

4 Mitchell, William. Our Air Force: The Keystone of National Defense. New York: E. P. Dutton & Company, 1921, pp. xix, xxi. 12 January 2011. http://ia341040.us.archive.org/2/items/ourairforcekeyst00mitcrich/ourairforcekeyst00mitcrich.pdf.

5 MacIsaac, Voices from the Central Blue, p. 631.

6 U.S. Department of the Air Force, Air Force Basic Doctrine.

7 Cheek, Gary H. “Effects-Based Operations: The End of Dominant Maneuver?” in Williamson Murray. Transformation Concepts for National Security in the 21st Century. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, 2002, pp. 76-77. 12 January 2011. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display. cfm?pubID=252.

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