Книга / 24 Revision IV

2. Supercomputers (and in the not too distant future parallel processors) simulate large-scale and mesoscale climate and weather changes; atmos­pheric physicists and climatologists are beginning to gain confidence in their ability to understand the forces that determine climate. Their eventual success will have great scientific value and provide strong economic leverage in transportation, agriculture and oth­er industries.

As computer technology matures, systems will play an increasingly important role in education and in the acqui­sition and maintenance of profession­al skills.

3. Until recently the rapid technologi­cal growth of computers was the dom­inant driving force; application devel­opers eagerly awaited the arrival of new software and the next, even faster machine. Today the proliferation of personal computers, the development of more convenient user interfaces and the discovery of powerful application-driven models such as spread-sheets have begun to swing the pendulum in the other direction. Now needs are beginning to drive technological developments.

4. In the future we are likely to see this trend strengthen. Imagine, for example, a computational laboratory in which you can experiment with chemical reactions, model astronomical phenomena or test business strategies for growth in an appropriate environment – all before trying them out in the real world. To achieve such power, gigantic simulators of small corners of our universe will have to contain many special circuits that are optimized to rapidly execute very specific applications. Comparable trends are likely to take place as the growing arsenal of better algorithms, more powerful computational tools is marshaled at the service of office work, marketing, legal and financial advising, clinical decision making, tutoring and various forms of recreation.

5. This discussion of research thrusts has been an optimistic and hopeful assessment of the future of computing. To many people this kind of wide-eyed technological optimism is naive. I disagree! This does not mean that the field of computers is clear of evil. Individual privacy has been violated. Data banks have been broken into and their contents altered. Computer viruses, information terrorists that sabotage innocent software, have been planted. Humans have avoided responsibility by blaming incomprehensible programs.

6. Microcomputers are the newest addition to the computer family. They are small and cheap, and are (generally) contained in a few small units. Their distinguishing feature is that processing is carried out on a single microprocessor chip. Although they are very versatile, microcomputers can only support one application at any one time. Examples of microcomputers are the IBM PC, the Apple Macintosh and the Research Machines Nimbus.

7. The classification of computers into mainframes, minis and micros is only very approximate. Computers are getting smaller and more powerful all the time. Micros are being introduced with capability of minis only a few years old. Minicomputers are incorporating microprocessors to assume the capability of mainframes.