5. Hulya Ulku, r&d, Innovation, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis, imf Working Paper, Research Department, September 2004.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04185.pdf

Abstract: This paper investigates the main postulations of the R&D based growth models that innovation is created in the R&D sectors and it enables sustainable economic growth, provided that there are constant returns to innovation in terms of R&D. The analysis employs various panel data techniques and uses patent and R&D data for 20 OECD and 10 Non-OECD countries for the period 1981–97. The results suggest a positive relationship between per capita GDP and innovation in both OECD and non-OECD countries, while the effect of R&D stock on innovation is significant only in the OECD countries with large markets. Although these results provide support for endogenous growth models, there is no evidence for constant returns to innovation in terms of R&D, implying that innovation does not lead to permanent increases in economic growth. However, these results do not necessarily suggest a rejection of R&D based growth models, given that neither patent nor R&D data capture the full range of innovation and R&D activities.

Rationale

This research will analyze new effective methods of macroeconomic regulation for using in Russia. The object of the research consists in looking into innovation methods in macroeconomic regulation and their efficiency in the Russian economy. The purpose of this research is to prove the failure of the current macroeconomic policy and necessity for a new approach in regulation methods in Russia. This study presents a new system of macroeconomic organization with its own principles of operation and innovate methods of regulation of the economy. Modern macroeconomic instruments which are presented in the research can promote more efficiency of the Russian economy, its development and help to prevent domestic market instability as a result of world shocks.

Relevance of this theme is associated with recent policy challenges for Russia. This is about western sanctions, policy troubles with Ukraine and oil shocks. Also, it is important to say that Russia lags behind in development compared to western countries. So only a new approach to macroeconomic regulation can solve problem.

Glossary

approach

Capital flow

carbon economics

competitiveness

dynamics models

Economic growth

Economic management

economic prediction

emerging technologies

employed

forgone consumption

generalized method of moment (GMM)

growth model

human capital

implementation of strategies

industrial chains

Innovation potential

Innovation processes

innovation sector

innovative economies

interest rates

intermediate goods

know-how

macroeconometric model

macroeconomic instruments

подход

движение капитала

углеродная экономика

конкурентоспособность

динамические модели

Экономический рост

Управление экономикой

экономическое прогнозирование

новые технологии

Частный предприниматель

упущенное потребление

обобщенный метод моментов (GMM)

модель роста

человеческий капитал

осуществление стратегий

промышленные цепи

Инновационный потенциал

Инновационные процессы

инновационный сектор

инновационная экономика

процентные ставки

промежуточные товары

секрет производства

макроэконометрическая модель

макроэкономические инструменты

Macroeconomic regulation

macroeconomic standard

main trends

market incentives

monopoly

national assets

panel data

paradigm

per capita

policy changes

premises

promote innovation

quantificational methods

R&D, patents

removing barriers

response to shocks

simulation experiments

sustainable

term structure

The innovation-simulation technique

theoretical example

time-series processes

to be nonrival

total factor productivity

uncertain

Макроэкономическое регулирование

макроэкономический стандарт

Основные тенденции

рыночные стимулы

монополия

национальные активы

панельные данные

парадигма

на душу населения

изменения в политике

предпосылки

способствовать внедрению инноваций

квантификационные методы

R & D, патенты

устранение барьеров

ответ на шоки

имитационные эксперименты

устойчивый

Временная структура

Методика инновационного моделирования

теоретический пример

Процессы временных рядов

быть неконкурентными

совокупная производительность факторов

неуверенный

Plan

I. Main macroeconomic challenges in the Russian economy

A. Russian macroeconomic policy

B. Macroeconomic problems of Russia

C. Ways of solution to Russian economic challenges

II. Innovation, as a way to overcome the backwardness of the Russian economy

A. The position of the innovation sector in the structure of the Russian economy

B. Modernization of the innovation sector

III. Transition of the Russian economy to an innovative way of development.

A. Prospects of this way of development in the Long term

B. The main problems of this development path