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.htmlNikolay M.Amosov. World Outlook Basic Ideas
Introduction
The World Happens to be Material and Structured
What is the Origin of World's Complexity?
Intellect
Human Being
Society
Maturing of a Civilization
Globalization
One-pole World
Global problems
Conclusion
On Ukraine
Innermost things
Abbreviations
Books
Your opinion Ukrainian Russian Society Human society originated from a herd. Ethnologists described its ethics in the following way: Everyone used to get food only for oneself and one's kids, without sharing it with somebody else and was inclined to take it away from others. There existed various models of marriage relations: hominydes were polygamic and the fight for partners was the main source of males' conflicts. Great communication demand made individuals to form groups according to sex, age, family relationships, "interests" and the leadership used to force them to fight for the first place. ("Peking order" in the hen flock!). Fights for a female, leadership or food used to be often but never ended in murder. Herd leader happened to win his place in the fight and to govern his subordinates despotically. All representatives of another herd were considered enemies. The herd used to consolidate and fought vigorously against its enemies. Kids and weak individuals were protected. There existed justice of exchanges by communication: with caresses, services, as well as with threats. Mutual relations were worked through in games.
Sometimes there used to occur in herd some elements of elite, democracy and collectivism.
A state happens to be also a herd, but there act in it not individuals but groups. They are organized by force of the herd instinct and civilization factors: division of labour, property, origin, wealth, etc. Corresponding to every factor there organized groups with their own leaders. And accordingly, - with antagonism as to other groups.
Collective Intellect (CI) of the society is embodied in intellects of its members. The degree of intellects'summing up and centralization depends on ideology, state system the level of scientific and technical progress, economy and culture. CI is allotted with general shortcomings, such as limited nature, subjectivity, but especially by the feeling of enthusiasm about something - self-organization, as the result of creative work of many people.
Social evolution started from the invention of tools, signs and speech. Speech was especially important. It enlarged the communication of primitive people, provided the information accumulation in a herd, and strengthened governing of collective actions. Independent languages separated people from one another and turned them into hostile tribes. What is important, that speech laid foundation for abstract thinking, i.e. for general notions. In particular, for "I' and They", for life, death and immortal soul. And later- also for gods. The idea of the only powerful God turned out to be a necessity to believe in highest authority together with the causation principle and referring the causation of essence of all things to eternity.
The of God idea was born due to distributing of causality principle from elementary phenomena on the broad range of processes covering nature and human activities: the hypothesis was advanced that there should be a common bottom of all things in the world. It was called by the name of God. The very faith in God is based on the biological necessity to believe in authority, in a father, in a leader. When the idea of God was combined with the idea of sole immortality, a new spiritual world has originated, parallel to the real one but more significant.
Invention of tools increased the efficiency of labour and hunting. The result of the above was the rise of survival of descendants and tribe enlargement. There appeared conditions for property accumulation and one more (next to the power) source of inequality for people and social groups. Natural aggressiveness and greed of leaders manifested itself in wars and seizure of territories with assimilation of enemies or converting them in slavery.
The progress of human communities (self-organization!) was not always the same. Among thousands of tribes existed in the history, only about twenty had reached the civilization level. The rest had simply disappeared, and some of them still continued their half savage existence in jungles of South America and Africa.
Ideologies The human society differs from the herd by the ideology. It manifests itself in word patterns: "What is good. What is bad and how it should be". Trained phrases-convictions, derivatives of ideas regulate claims, natural needs, attitudes towards actions of citizens, determining in such a way the efficiency of the society. They also happen to be the starting point of "social passions", which are plenty enough in the history.
Needs happen to be the source of ideologies. There is a great difference in their priorities among the strong and the weak character types, and, in particular, in the importance of individualism and collectivism. There originated out of it the contradictory hypotheses on a just society.
The first hypothesis was formed by the weak ones: all people are equal as to their natural needs, therefore they have to work together and distribute equally the fruits of their labour.
Power means democracy. This hypothesis originated the Christian society and later - socialism.
The second hypothesis was formed by the strong types: people are different as to their potentialities, therefore let everyone work at one's own field and get what one has earned. This hypothesis originated private property and capitalism, as well as the Christianity's
"Protestant ethics". The society has to be governed by the strong and the rich. Selection shall occur through competition.
There are a lot of intermediate ideas among the extreme ones. Though only some of them turned out to be vital.
The property is laid in the need: to stock up food.
Basic parameters of ideology are power, property information and morals.
The property is laid in the need: to stock up food. Appropriation and distribution generated from the power. Alternatives: property (private, state, collective) and economy (planned, market and mixed) were generated by ideologies
Power is the manifestation of leadership. The fear, the subordination and the herd instinct cause obedience to the power. Power, subordination and the faith in authorities happened to be inherited by the society from the herd. The same is true as to the ethics and fairness of exchanges: labour against commodities, commodities and praises against subordination. Power evolution went from the herd leader to the modern democracy. Its alternative is ideological totalitarianism, which is the same by any regime: communism, nazism or religious fanaticism.
Object of power is people. Its CI is small, unstable, inclined to passions and depends on culture, wealth and democracy experience. Unity of people with some charismatic leader ensues only in case of the threat of external enemy.
Information is derivative of curiosity and creation. Its accumulation has started together with speech appearance. Evolution of information - in education and scientific and technical progress. Totalitarian ideologies propagate some restriction of information.
Transformation of morals went from the herd ethics through "taboo", local and then world religions, further - through education development and ideology evolution to total humanism with expanding the person's rights and restricting the state's rights.
Precepts mean beliefs intended to restrain some biological stereotypes widespread in the herd, such as: to steal, to deceive, to change partners. Even to kill. To make to precepts more persuasive, the highest authorities - the God or forefathers' Ghosts threatening with a punishment were mentioned
The communist or race ideologies propagating collectivism and altruism are happened to be the extreme variants of the morals, however, only for the ideology adherents.
In the course of history, the evolution of ideologies was determined by the technical progress followed by the economic and cultural advance (I mention here the true statement of Marx:
"The productive relations used to follow the development of productive forces"). Scientific and technical progress and economy were accompanied by changes in relations of the power and the property which manifested itself in prevailing of some social classes over another ones (aristocracy, bourgeoisie, peasants and proletarians) with further transition to formal equality. This process was accompanied by transformation of the basic need: from the fear and hunger in antiquity to self-affirmation, freedom, knowledge and sympathy in modern times. Accents and ideologies had been changing, as well. First, - fight with the slavery, then - property right. Further -attaining of equality and freedom. Then - general education, state protection of the weak and the poor. Up to abolition of capital punishment!
I have tried to build up a model of society, combining each sphere models into the common one - a state. I modeled links, assumed indicators, dependences, rates and compared statistical data. I have to acknowledge, that I arrived to nothing. In other words, I have made a model, but it happened to be not authentic one. I made sure, that even working in a team, it is impossible to put the matter to an end, in this case, to the model able to control the state. Though, the case was very interesting:
Self-organization is to blame. And above all, the uncertainty of a "human factor" and shortcomings of Collective Intellect.
Correspondingly, there is no "ideal ideology" appropriate for all and always.
How to estimate ideologies? Evidently according to generalized concept of society efficiency. ) Based on modern real indicators, tasks can be presented as follows:
A. "Ownership coordinate". First priority: increase of economics level (GDP), oriented on advanced technologies and education, but not obligatory, on universal happiness. High GIA (General Intellect Algorithm) for the poor and decrease of inequality would be a second priority along with the country's prosperity. Ecology would be the third priority.
Prosperous economics is possible only in the case of hard labor, initiative and economy of citizens of all social classes. To achieve it, the stake should be made on the following. First: strong needs, such as private (!) property and competition, market. Secondly, strong types, leaders should be at stake. It means-inequality. Unfortunately, the fear of unemployment and poverty should be used to stimulate the labor of weak people.
B. "Power coordinates" is not very definite for an efficient society. Certainly, the democracy is a desirable thing but not obligatory. At least, "at the start of the path", when peoples culture is still low. The basic requirement to authorities: to provide order and legality ("Appropriate climate for investors"?) Secondly, low taxes: the budget should not be overloaded with excessive expenses: for defense, administration and even for social needs. Third, to develop an infrastructure. Forth, to control market for the sake of crises avoiding. Only afterwards, the social tasks of authorities are at stake: education, health protection, dosed social protection. At the last place should be the full set of civil rights for everybody.
It should be acknowledged, that importance of democracy for people is far more exaggerated, when comparing with that of income and protection against criminals. The matter is, that democracy is quantitative concept. There are questions: "Who elects? All or there are some restrictions? Who is elected? Just only president or everybody, from the top to the bottom? Are there dosed restrictions or full freedom for meetings, press, TV? I am sure, that any democracy should be dosed according to the level of education, traditions, well-being, as well as to economy efficiency. Any exaggerations can lead to loss of stability and even to a crisis.
In principle, there is no "ideal ideology" which may be good always and for everybody. Compromises turned out to be the only way out.
They are subjects of creative work, like belongings, but there is always the biological basis under them. The authors of ideologies used to choose scale points, corresponding to contradictory biological needs, formulate the idea and disseminate it among people, forming in such a way pre-conditions to win the power.
Implementation of ideologies is the product of self-organization.
Success depends on interaction of many factors: proper choice of ideology, taking into consideration biological needs; leader's personality; initial technological level; economy; culture; former social system; religion; traditions; influence of other states. It all together means, "maturing" of the society for a new idea.
I name such principal scales for the choice of ideology coordinates:
1) inequality or equality;
2) dictatorship or democracy;
3) different forms of property;
4) The God - matter or faith - knowledge;
5) patience - aggressiveness;
6) labour-entertainment;
7) common - private (or egoism-altruism);
9) present-future;
10) values: common to mankind or group (nation, religion, class, ideology).
One failed to determine whether the ideology is optimal when analyzing "the level of happiness of people": sociological studies presented approximately the same degree of satisfaction with the life in both poor and industrial countries what is explained by the adaptation property. Therefore, viability of ideology is being proved by the stability of the state and economic progress, and in general, by its rank's rise in the "herd of states". At present, the preservation of nature is added.
Self-organization and the ability to be enthusiastic about people's CI originated communities and even states, based on some far-fetched ideologies without consideration of biology, technology, economy and culture. For this very reason they happened to be unstable.
Example: Athens democracy, "Jesuitical socialism in Peru in 16th century and Russian communism 1918.
It is impossible to review all ideologies. As an example I compare two modern ones: western capitalism and soviet socialism. I do not intend to analyze "pure ideology"- rights, freedoms, attitude to the God, the difference here is quite clear: "no, no and no" by the socialism.
Below I enumerate the indicators relating to the economy and ecology. I express the difference with the symbolic digital ratio.
Capitalism is almost twice more effective than socialism by the following indicators:
1. Economy growth.
2. Scientific and technical progress.
3. The share of personal consumption.
4. Labour productivity and product quality.
In three times more effective than socialism on the following indicators:
5. Material-and energy capacity of production.
6. Environmental protection.
Socialism is twice more efficient as to (7) social protection and (8) decreasing of income inequality.
It is evident that the first six indicators exceed the last two. Furthermore, the acceleration of economic growth has the tendency to compensate for the issues (7) and (8).
Relating to the question of ideologies, it is worth while to discuss the Materiality of Idea. We have used to the following: there are things and there are ideas; the first ones are stable and realistic, the second - something unreal and illusive. But, this is not true. If the ideas, expressed in words are fixed in brain neurons of million of people and are published in many books, then they are happened to be as real as the things and objects of nature. They control the real actions of people and change the course of history even to a greater degree than earthquakes and floods do. Ideas are the genes of society. Another thing is that they are less stable in historic time than genes. There is some specific point about them: only those ideas are spread, which happened to be in tune with certain contradictory biological needs.
Furthermore, the very ability of the idea to be widespread underlines the importance of the need it is based upon. Let's take as an example the idea of the Kind God: it was spread throughout the world by the world religions and turned out to be the most stable. It means that kind source in the human nature predominates over the evil one. Unfortunately, the same self-organization enables the opposite (evil, e.g. racist) ideas to be provisionally spread as well, because they are also "represented" in contradictory biological needs, though they are less important.
Historic evolution of ideologies may be defined as "the civilization maturing".
Civilization Maturing Objective regularity of changes of the state and ideologies of countries and the whole mankind (towards rationality!) can be symbolically defined as "the civilization maturing".
It is the self-organizing processes, which is characterized by the dynamics of interrelated indicators.
Progress of technologies increases productivity of labour, promotes economic growth, development of education and consistently leads to the transformation of the "basic" need: from fear and hunger to property, faith in the God and to self-affirmation, freedom, equality, intellectual curiosity, altruism. Step by step, all social classes in all countries are getting involved in these processes because of the expansion of the leader-states and a specific "fashion" to act like the leaders do.
Simultaneously, the side-effects of the Scientific and Technical Progress increase, such as: population growth, pollution of the environment, decline of the nature, as well as accumulation of weapons of mass destruction.
Below is the brief enumeration of indicators of maturing, increased according to the parameters:
1. Property: individual, corporate, transnational corporations, etc.
2. Priorities of the economy: agriculture (technique), information (services).
3. Power: authoritative, democratic, traditional (socially-oriented).
4. Technology: (power engineering is taken as a model); force of animals; water and wind; steam, electricity, atom.
5. Spreading of education: intelligentsia, rich people, middle class and all people, correspondingly: elementary education, secondary and higher.
6. Information: books, newspapers, radio, television, global networks, Internet.
7. Morals: from group,- class,-ideological morals to human morals.
8. Labour: manual, mechanized and intellectual.
4. Culture: national, books, mass (industrial, cinema, television) and planetary (electronic).
5. Demography: decreasing of death rate, growth of population, birth control, termination of population growth.
6. Ecology: from the local level to the state one and then to the global level.
The mature society like, for example, Western Europe is characterized by the following indicators: real income per person is U.S. dollar 15-25 th.; population growth is decreased up to 2-3%. Market, state property - 20-40%; Inequality between 10%-of the richest and 10 % of the poorest is 1:7. Morals - humanistic (compromise of personal and collective interests). Power: developed multi-party democracy with observation of civil rights. Social expenditures: pensions, healthcare, etc. comprise one half of the budget. Education: 16-18 years. Health: low mortality rate. Life duration : more than 70 years.
Industry is provided with high technologies. Environment is good preserved. Dream-countries!
The UN-experts have undertaken an attempt to determine the civilization as the "quality of life of the people". As the only objective indicator "The Human Development Index" (HDI) was offered, combining four indicators:
1. Real income per person (in thousand dollars, considering the purchasing power of the dollar in the country).
2. The supposed life duration.
3. Literacy of adult population.
4. Estimation of the environmental state.
HDI reflects sufficiently "the maturing degree" of the society. UN issues every year the statistics book comprising 174 countries. They are traditionally split into three groups: "developed", "developing" and "weak-developed"(or simply poor!). Before collapse of the Soviet Union, the socialist countries formed a separate group. Now they are all happened to be under "developing countries".
Below are the basic indicators for the a.m. three groups of countries as of 1999:
There are 45 developed countries. Their population comprises 28% of the whole mankind.
Income per person amounts to $ U.S. 22000. Life duration amounts to 77 years. There is general literacy. The environment is estimated in 79 symbolic points.
There are 94 developing countries forming the second group. The population comprises 63% of the whole humanity. Income per person amounts to $ U.S. 3300. Life duration - 67 years. Literate people - 76 %. The environment is estimated in 64 symbolic points.
The third group is formed by 35 poor countries. Their population comprises 9% of the whole mankind. The countries indicators are the worst: Income per person -$ U.S 1000. Life duration -50 years. Literate people - 48%. The environment - 30 points.
Indicators as to Russia are the following: Income per person - $ U.S 4400.
Life duration is 67 years but all people are literate (precisely - 99%). The environment is estimated in 77 symbolic points. 71st place by HDI scale.
For Ukraine there are the same indicators, only the income per person is less and amounts to $ U.S 2200. Ukraine is placed on 91st position by HDI scale.
It is important to analyze the maturing process.
Economy:
average income growth for the period of 30 years: First group - 2,3%; Second group 3,5%; Third group - 1,4%.
Population growth: First group - 0,5%; second group- 1,7%; third group - 3%.
Education growth is regular: one year of learning is added every 5 years. In poor countries it resulted in 50% literacy; in developing - 10-year school education is compulsory; in developed countries: one half of young people study at colleges and universities. Evolution of power goes from dictatorship to democracy, which is often turned out to be only formal.
In is difficult to advise a poor country how to speed up the maturing. Every country has its own hardships. Firstly: strong power is needed. Broad democracy and civil rights but without culture, which used to unite ideas and traditions do not allow to solve contradictions between branched of power, parties, trade-unions and groups. When this shall be the case, the country is supposed to be involved in discords and strikes; there will be no foreign investments and even the country's own capital will be transferred abroad.
Secondly: expenses for social sphere shall correspond to the level of economic development.
For the third time: initial fast growth of economy is impossible without exploitation. In other words: to achieve the wealth people has to go through poverty.
But in this way or another, quick or slow but the maturing shall occur in every country by all parameters.
Globalization Globalization happens to be the modern stage of civilization maturing. It means expanding of international relations, economic co-operation of countries, implementation of new technologies, common standards of life, homogeneous mass culture and ideologies. Motive forces of this process there are the usual human needs, such as leadership, greed, imitation, curiosity characteristic also for countries and transnational corporations.
Like in everything, there are some pluses and minuses in the globalization.
1. The world economic system, provided with plenty of international agreements, promotes exchange of goods and capital between countries and accelerates the maturing of poor countries.
2. The same is true about science and technique: trade, communication systems, transnational corporations, patents, Internet distribute modern technologies throughout the world.
3. The same processes affect politics: all countries are inclined to democracy and civil rights. Though it is not always true but the tendency is sure to exist.
4. UN is happened to be a consolidating force. It renders and coordinates the humanitarian aid, influences (together with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) the development processes in emerging markets and poor countries.
5. The countries with similar economic systems and ideologies strive for deep integration. (EC).
6. There considerably increased the international migration. Scientists look for better research conditions, sportsmen and artists - for money and fame and the poor and unemployed people look for work and earnings.
7. Culture and sport. There observed throughout the world the distribution of news, pop-music, Hollywood films, fashion, English language, educational standards and Internet. Development of the international tourism and business trips grows very fast.
8. Ecology intends to become the part of "humanity morals".
In general, the globalization promotes distribution of humanism, equality, education and struggle against poverty.
Unfortunately, not all is as happy as it seems to be. Below is the list of bad consequences of globalization:
The globalization has not stopped, but even increased the country stratification: the rich, the powerful and the clever move up into first place. Those, which have not managed to penetrate into world trade and finances, are destined to lag behind. All CIS countries belong to this number. Alas!
Professionalism has grown to be evaluated greatly and unemployment among unqualified workers has increased. As a result, there grown inequality in labour market, which generated poverty and instability in the society.
Transnational corporations are getting larger, exceeding sometimes even some country's budget and are turning into world monopolists.
Furthermore, globalization brings some direct threats. For example, financial collapse in a certain country may quickly spread throughout the world, as it was in 1998-1999. Correspondingly, tens of million of people are happened to be poor and countries might lose their political stability (Indonesia, 1997).
The international trade and financial relations happened to be used by criminals for drug traffic and weapon trade, as well as to serve as concealment for political terrorists.
The low-grad Hollywood products and pop-music force national culture out and even threats to originality of peoples. At the same time it decreases people's morals and promotes delinquency rise. It is even written, that travel boom might promote distribution of epidemics...
However, in spite of all, globalization is happened to be more useful than harmful. The point is that it still exists, it develops and it is impossible to be stopped. So, one needs to use its advantages and try to eliminate its deficiency.
One-pole World (World with One pole) The whole history of the mankind is happened to be the continuous rivalry of countries and the fight for leadership (like in a herd!). Since ancient times there appeared in various parts of the world powerful civilizations with their own culture and leadership. They used to conquer weaker countries, founding empires. However, big distances, bad transport, technical facilities and communication means, as well as the lack of significant technological advantage interfered with consolidating even a single continent to a common state.The world continued to remain multi-pole. In recent half a century the USA and the USSR had moved into front line and a number of poles were reduced to two.
But the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact have broken down. Russia inherited missiles and the army, however it was not able any more to involve neighboring countries in its orbit without powerful economy. Totalitarian socialism gave way to liberalism over in economical and ideological competition. Though, the specific Chinese socialism is still existing, but even it is drifting to liberalism. The North Korea and Cuba might not be taken into account - they wold not inflame the world revolution. The Islamic world stands by itself, however it still is not able to be a powerful consolidating force.
Thus, the USA is defined as the only pole of the world. The adherents of the multipole world, belonging to the strongest countries of the world are used to complain hypocriticaly on some restrictions in competition when they are loosing chances to be the leaders.
However, their objections are ungrounded. In a herd, the fight status rise as a stimulus for effort and training is so organically characteristic of all species. Even in the case, when the first place is happened to be unattainable, then all "medium and weak" used to advocate the order supported by the heard leader. For the mankind it means avoiding of a big war.
At the current century, leadership used to instigate the Germans, the Japanese and the Russians to win the world domination. We remember, how it is ended. The European Community, China, Japan and Russia are the real competitors of the USA in the fight for domination. Publication analysis has allowed me to outline the ratio of competitors' potential on a number of indicators.
For simplicity I have chosen the three basic ones and determined the ratio of opponent's potential to that of the USA.
Ratio Table
USA, China, Europe, Japan and Russia
USA China Europe Japan Russia 1 2 3 4 5 Economy
(Increase of the gross domestic product (GDP), %) 1 (3%) 0,45 (10%) 1(2%) 0,4(3%) 0,1(2%) Science and Technologies 1 0,1 0,5 0,4 0,3 Military complex 1 0,1 0,3 0,05 0,3 Sum of three indicators 3 0,65 1,8 0,85 0,75 Population in bln 0,3 1,2 0,5 0,12 0,15 Note: Within the next 20 years the economic growth of China is supposed to decrease by 4-6% due to the maturing effect. Nevertheless, in 30-50 years it would overtake the USA on GDP, but it would still lag behind on technologies and weaponry:
The importance of each factor is not the same, but they are all interrelated. Science and technique need education, feed economy and weaponry and in exchange they get financing (USA spends as much for the defense as all the countries together). The country's intellectual potential is the important element of leadership. Scientists from the whole world are invited to the research laboratories of the USA. Expenses for science are enormous. The Americans possess almost one half of all Nobel prizes on science; the USA purchases 80% of all patents. And there are also a lot of other priorities.
At the same time the USA education, culture and democracy promote development of freedom and civil rights, as well as protection of environment in other countries. Therefore its leadership does not threaten the world with return to the socialism or fascism. Even on the contrary, it serves as a guarantor from such outbursts (self-organization is treacherous!) in some countries.
Certainly, the antagonism would not disappear, but it would not spread beyond the boarders of local conflicts (like in a herd: one used to fight without killing). And the last illustration to the above-mentioned: for ten years of the USA real leadership the total military expenses in countries (excluding USA) have been twice reduced: the countries calm down.
However, I would better leave geopolitics, after all the self-organization is unpredictable and the rationality of countries is rather doubtful. But he world is happened to be predictable; therefore total fight for the leadership in a herd of countries is doubtful. At least, at present.
Global problems The dynamics of the basic indicators of the current century is as follows: population increase - 3,7 times; economy growth - 40 times; education increase, considering the percentage of literate adults (very approximately!) from 13 to 82 %; life duration - from 50 to 67 years. All colonies acquired independence. Democracy is spread everywhere.
The scientific and technical progress is astonishing - planes, missiles, cosmos, satellites, radio, television, nuclear stations (unfortunately, nuclear bombs inclusive), computers, Internet, genetics, appliance of functions(?) and transplanting of organs, cloning, biological technologies, "Green revolution", etc.
The sad historical experience is also useful: two world wars, fascism, socialism, GULAG and Auschwitz. Unfortunately, the negative consequences of civilization are progressing as well. It is not mere chance that the "global problems" of humanity (Rome Club) were formulated for thirty years ago.
Here are these problems in relation to the latest tendencies:
1. Population is growing. But there are some encouraging signs: due to civilization maturing the growth is almost twice reduced in comparison to 60-s years. There appeared the confidence that stabilization of the global population on the level of 10-12 bln. would happen in 50-70 years. It is much, but endurable for the nature.
2. Growth of world economy is increasing: in developing? countries - 5 - 7%, in poor countries - 3 - 6%. As to the rich countries, the increase in GDP is limited to only 2%. The maturing leads to deceleration throughout the world. This favorable tendency is defined as the "balanced growth". Acceleration advantages are improvement of education and slowing down of population growth; disadvantage increase of dangerous influences upon the environment.
nbsp;But nevertheless, the total Gross Product is supposed to increase by the middle of the next century by 3-4 times. Would the resources be sufficient for such production? No doubt, they are. The energy-and material capacity of a GDP-unit is intended to decrease twice, but the progress would continue. For the time being the exploring of natural resources goes before the growth of industry needs.
3. The environment is sure to deteriorate. The forest area and drinking water reserves are decreasing; biological species are dying out; oceans are getting contaminated; deserts are expanding; arable lands are decreasing; "ozone holes" are broadening; atmospheric temperature is getting higher, natural disasters become more frequent. It all together leads to exhaustion of food resources and is bad for a health. Unfortunately, the dynamics of these processes still remains positive.
Shall they play a fatal role for the planet's biology? No, they shall not. Scientific and technical progress promises to reduce industrial waste and to improve their utilization. There is a hope, that the harmful influence of technical progress upon the nature would increase not in 4 times (like GDP), but may be in two times. Besides, the ecological culture is supposed to be higher; "zones of preserved nature" presented by Europe, North America and Japan would be expanded. The growth of agro-technique and biotechnology would compensate for the arable lands decreasing and provide people with food products, though not on an equal basis.There would be no mortal threat for a human life. The health depends to a greater extend on culture, wealth and medicine than on environmental pollution. The civilization maturing would provide it all.
4. The danger of total nuclear war seems to be over, but the world stability is threatened with ethnic, religious and ideological conflicts. They used to split countries, lead to terror, to the rise of aggressive regimes, distribution and accumulation of nuclear and chemical weapon in competing "developing" countries. Drugs have also become a threat to the welfare of humanity. One polar world happens to inspire hope: when there is an authoritative arbiter, (holding also a big cudgel) it is easier to make decisions.
General conclusion: the balance of negative and positive tendencies has not yet been achieved, but there is a hope. The most wounding thing is that the world science, technique and economy are able even update to control birthrate, to provide everybody with food, energy and needed materials, to render waste and to regain balance over nature. It is prevented by the same biological human qualities as leadership, egoism, grid and irrationality. But there is still a hope: maturing means also the intellect accumulation.
The environment monitoring has been at least adjusted. The nature is stable enough and a total disaster on the planetary level is impossible. Statements on the inevitable degradation of all biological systems after reaching of some contamination level are unfounded. Populations of plants and animals in various regions exist autonomously, their adaptability is high and they can not perish at the same time throughout the planet while the sun is shining. At last, one can hope, that the adequate measures would be taken, provided the threat becomes real. Fear is supposed to prompt intellect.
It is to acknowledge that people would not turn into angels. Therefore, greed, poverty, hungers and cruelty would, unfortunately, remain in the world. If only their scale would not enlarge!
Conclusion. Before making future forecasts it is useful to survey the beginning of the expiring century. The mechanisms of democracy and capitalism have been already worked out at the USA, France and England. The world community expected to enjoy calm life, miracles of technique, cars, planes and telephone: Then the unexpected started (self-organization!) - world war, revolution, socialism, fascism. It followed by the squall of destructive technique: missiles, nuclear bombs, and the cosmos on the background of the opposition between the West and the USSR. For half a century, the progress of economy and creative sciences have considerably decreased mortality rate, increased production of goods but at the same time the number of industrial waste has increased as well. To the nuclear war danger there added "global problems". Radio, television, chemistry, transport and dwelling problem have concerned every citizen and computer problem - at least many of them. Globalization! Whether it was possible to foreseen it all? Certainly, science fiction writers wrote about it in their books, but who believed them?
As to me, I am not intending to draw pictures of the next century, acknowledgement of self-organization is supposed to cool imagination. Science is sure to make new discoveries, but humanity's everyday life would be aggravated by 10-12 bln. of population (with 30% of old people among them), with obsolete technique, slow income rate and deterioration of environment, one can not expect the fast changing of people life for the better in the nearest future. However, the maturing would continue: poor countriesare supposed to become developing ones, and the developing countries would come close to the rich ones.
People in general would not change. The expectations to improve the genetics of 10 bln.people are ungrounded. It might happen that the genetic embryonic diagnostics would allow to reveal defected babies, but when it is supposed to occur? It is similar to that the pills might decrease the peaks of dangerous behavior of pathological individuals, but how to bring all planets' inhabitants under medical observation? That is why, the deformities and passions would remain.
But there is some start for a few breaking-through: INTERNET might become the most important of them. It is supposed to change a lot: education, labour, business, communication, mass-media. It would destroy "iron curtains", spread ideas of matured society, and provide support for the democracy.
Secondly, - genetics and bio-technologies. It includes: food, medicine, preservation of biological species.
Thirdly, Artificial Intellect - the sphere of optimal control and then - creation.
The basic task is to regulate the self-organization in ideologies and state relations for the sake of not repeating the cataclysms of the twentieth century. Maturing, globalization and one-polar world used to moderate dangers, though not including them completely. It is difficult to settle contradiction between the necessity to carry out hard control over people to let the whole humanity to survive and the principles of individual freedom and democracy.
As to ideologies, i.e. their coordinates in ever- changing world, they are, in principle available for sociology, equipped with monitoring technique of people's psychology and means of influence with various mass media. However, the realization is supposed to be difficult - large scales and self-organization would interfere. But the humanity is moving towards the Intellect.
But the general principles of people's relations were founded by religions still thousand years ago and maybe even earlier still by the ancient herd's ethics. These are compromises to achieve stability and progress. Only content is changing.
I can say only one thing - there is no need to be afraid of the future.
January, 2001
Nikolay Amosov. My World Outlook.
Translation from Russian into English Kovalchuk Emma