Тексты по специальности ТЭС / Global warming

Global warming

An environmental issue that has received increased attention in recent years is the risk of climatic changes as a result of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, more then half of which come from the energy sector and the rest from other anthropogenic activities. Measurements show that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are increasing. For example, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have increased from the pre-industrial level of about 270 ppm to the present level of about 360 ppm (parts per million)

There is scientific consensus that a small increase, approximately 0.5 C, in the global average temperature has taken place over the last century. There is virtually unanimous agreement that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will result in global warming. The points of debate are what the rate of warming will be, how important different climate feedbacks from clouds, oceans and biota are, and how warming will lead to changes in other climate parameters, such as precipitation and ocean circulation.

In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess closely the state of knowledge on climate change. In its reports, IPCC predicts that atmospheric concentrations equivalent to a doubling of carbon will lead to a long-term change in the Earth’s surface air-temperature of 1,5 to 1,5 C. The impacts of IPCC’s business-as-usual scenario, with a doubling of the equivalent carbon dioxide concentrations by the middle of the next century, include a sea-level rise of three to ten centimeters per decade, changing vegetation zones and a northward retreat of the permafrost zones.