Autos, Gas Drive Gains In Sales

Sales at U.S. retailers grew at the fastest pace in five months in February, as spending increased at auto dealerships, gas stations and clothing stores. Retail and food-service sales increased 1.1% from January to a seasonally adjusted $407.81 billion, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Sales were up 6.5% year-over-year.

Auto sales propped up the overall number, growing 1.6% from the previous month. Vehicle sales were up 6.9% from a year earlier. In January, retail sales were up only 0.6%, as auto sales fell 1.6%, according to newly revised data. Excluding autos, retail sales grew 0.9% in February, after rising 1.1% the previous month. Economists had forecast a 0.8% rise in sales excluding autos last month.

The U.S. economy has added an average of 245,000 jobs each month since December. Wages have also inched up. Those improvements may be allowing consumers to open their wallets further, and the additional spending could propel stronger economic growth in the first quarter. Still, unemployment remained stuck at 8.3% last month, and could stay elevated for some time. In January, the Federal Reserve forecast that the unemployment rate would be between 8.2% and 8.5% at the end of 2012.

The Commerce report showed that sales excluding the volatile auto and gasoline sectors grew a more modest 0.6% last month. With fuel prices rising, sales at gasoline stations were up 3.3%, the fastest pace in nearly a year.

In a separate report, U. S. business inventories rose in January, as car lots and warehouses remained relatively well-stocked amid a slowdown in sales. Inventories increased by 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted $1.569 trillion. Overall business sales were up a modest 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted $ 1.237 trillion in January. December inventories were revised up to a 0.6% gain.

The Wall Street Journal March 2012

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U.K. Exports Rise To Non- eu Nations

THE U. K. goods trade deficit widened in January, but exports to non-european Union countries rose to the highest level since records began, figures showed Tuesday.

The improvement in exports also implies that trade made a good start to the first quarter of the year and could go some way to helping the U.K. avoid a return to recession, although how long net trade will boost growth depends largely on the developments amid the continuing euro- zone debt crisis.

The Office for National Statistics said the U. K.’s global goods trade deficit widened to £7.5 billion ($11.7 billion) in January from a deficit of £7.2 billion in December.

“The increase in the trade deficit seen in January is not surprising following the vast improvement seen in December,” said David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce. Mr. Kern added that U.K. trade has improved in recent months, although not as quickly as had been hoped. “Exports are growing more quickly than imports, and it is reassuring that the economy is gradually rebalancing. These figures support our belief that the economy returned to positive growth in the first quarter of the year, and a new recession will be avoided,” he said.

While a welcome development, the pickup in exports to non- EU countries wasn’t huge, and if the euro zone returns to recession early this year as economic data continue to suggest, the outlook for trade, and U. K. economic growth overall, will weaken sharply.

“The big picture is that the external sector is still holding up quite well given the euro- zone debt crisis,” said Vicky Redwood, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics. “But with the euro- zone economy sliding into recession, it will not be long before net trade is dragging on economic growth.”

The Wall Street Journal March 2012

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