КОМПЛЕКТ ЭКЗАМЕНАЦИОННЫХ ТЕКСТОВ

ПО ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОМУ ПЕРЕВОДУ

I семестр

(май 2012)

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EU estimate of recession gets gloomier

The European Union said Monday that the recession will last at least six months longer than it originally thought, and predicted a 4% contraction for the EU economy, more than double its earlier forecast.

The commission in January forecast the economy of the 27-state bloc would shrink 1.8% in 2009 while that of the 16 countries that use the euro would contract 1.9%. Both the EU and the euro-zone economies are now expected to contract by 4% this year, with unemployment and the fiscal strains hindering any recovery.

“The European economy is in the midst of its deepest and most widespread recession in the post-war era,” European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia said in a statement. Mr. Almunia added that he saw signs that the downturn is bottoming out.

Earlier hints of optimism about next year’s prospects are fading. The commission cut its outlook for EU economic growth in 2010 to a 0.1% contraction from the 0.5% expansion it predicted in January.

Unemployment will be worse than expected this year and will worsen in 2010, according to the commission. For the whole EU, the forecast was raised to 9.4% from 8.7%.

Public finances will be worse next year, with the euro zone posting a 6.5% average budget deficit and the EU gap at 7.3% of GDP, according to the commission.

Under EU rules, countries must keep budget gaps below 3% of GDP, except in exceptional circumstances. Mr. Almunia previously has said that because of the slowdown, countries won’t be sanctioned if their budget deficits expand – for one year only – to no more than 4% of GDP.

The Wall Street Journal May 2009

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Euro-zone output slides

Drop means jobs cuts are likely to continue;

Inflation hits a low

Euro-zone industrial production posted its sharpest annual drop yet in February, and March inflation was confirmed at a record low, renewing questions about whether the European Central Bank should act more aggressively to pull the 16-nation economic bloc out of recession.

Industrial output fell 2.3% in February from January, European Union statistics agency Eurostat said, and by a record 18% from February 2008. That was the steepest annual decline since records began in January 1990. Eurostat also said the euro zone’s annual inflation rate fell to a record low of 0.6% in March from 1.2% in February – confirming an estimate published last month that showed inflation at its lowest since records began in 1996.

Although the ECB has cut its main interest rate by three percentage points to a record low of 1.25% since October, it has been less aggressive than the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which have cut rates to near zero and launched programs to buy government and corporate debt to free up credit.

Economists warned that the large drop in euro-zone industrial output, led by Germany and Italy, raised the prospect of hefty job cuts, which would further depress consumer spending and economic activity.

The decline in industrial output in the euro zone was spread across all sectors. Production of capital goods fell 25% from a year ago, durable consumer goods dropped 22% and energy slid 3.6%.

The Wall Street Journal April 2009

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Norway raises interest rates; first in Europe

Oil-rich Norway became the first European country to raise interest rates after the financial crisis, lifting the key borrowing rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.5% in response to signs of renewed economic growth.

The central bank also raised its interest-rate path projections, which signaled rates will edge gradually up to 2.75% by the end of 2010.

Norway has pulled out of recession faster than the rest of Europe, helped by the strong rise in commodity prices since the start of the year, as well as significant monetary and fiscal policy stimulus. The stimulus programs amounted to more than 4% of gross domestic product in 2009.

The rate increase by Norges Bank follows that of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which this month was the first major central bank to tighten policy after the downturn. Israel, a much smaller economy, also raised interest rates recently.

Both Norway and Australia have been helped on the road to recovery by their relatively high precrisis levels of economic activity compared with the average of countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and they were supported by robust demand for commodities.

In addition, the length and pace of both countries’ economic contraction was less marked than elsewhere.

Norway’s move is unlikely to herald tightening elsewhere in Europe, at least for now. Data released this week showed private-sector loans in the euro zone declined annually for the first time on record last month, casting fresh doubts on recovery prospects and raising pressure on the European Central Bank to maintain its easy monetary stance.

The Wall Street Journal October 2009

Translate the text into Russian: № 4