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1 Events and operations over events.

1)Let A,B-events. Define the union A,B -event or sets

(denote by AuB) as the set consisting of choose points belonging to the either A or B or both

(оба закрашены)

2) Define the intersection of A and B ( B)

As the set of points that belong to both A and B.

A,B

=” +”

=”*”

Def 2

2 events in a sample space are said to be disjoined if A and b have no points in common that if it is impossible that both A and B occur doing the same performance at the experiment.

A

2 The classical definition of probability.

Def1

Suppose we have an experiment whose by a capital letter such as X called a random variable. Sample space of the experiment is the set of all possible outcomes . IS the sample space is either finite or countably infinite the random variables is said to be discrete .

We generally denote a sample space by the capital greek letter Omega. The sample space Omega corresponds to the set of possible outcomes of the experiment.

Def 2

Let us choose Omega = { }, A= } When we have P(A) is Probability of A is equal numbers of favorable divided to numbers of all outcomes corresponds to the classical probability .

Def 3

Let X be a random variables which denotes the value of the outcomes of certain experiment and a sum that this experiment has only finitely

Many possible outcomes .

A distribution function for X is a real valued function m whose domain is Omega and which satisfied : 1)m( ) for each i.

2)

For any subset E Omega we define the probability of E to be the number P(E) given by the next P(E) =

Example :

Omega ={1,2,3,4,5,6 }

We find the probability of event - choose the event numbers

C={2,4,6}

Solution

P(c) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6=1/2

If we have the simple event

3)Geometric definition of probability. The problem of meeting. Geometric Probability

Let us choose the area G and g. A- event at random gets the on point

P(A)=S(g)/S(G)

There is g-favorable outcomes , G- Omega

Meeting problem is a typical application of geometric probability.

Two persons A and B agreed to meet at a given place between 11 and 12 o’clock

If 1 person come first he should wait .

Find the probability of event C={Person A and B had meet}

Solution:

x-1st person

Y-2nd person

|x-y| S(G)=3600

S(g)=3600- (2 *40*40)/2=2000

P(C) =2000/3600=5/9

y

x

4)Elements of the combinatory

Ordered Sample of size K, with replacement.

The Number of ordered sequence { } where belong to } Is n*n*n….*n (k times) or

Ordered Sample of size K, without replacement.

The numberof ordered sequence { } where the belong to

But repetition is not allowed

The element can be appear more then once in the sequence

n(n-1 )….. (n-k+1)= k from 1to n

Unordered Sample of size k without replacement

The number of unordered sets { } where belong to } k from 1to n are distaned elements selecting k distined object out of n

If order doesn’t count

=

Unordered Sample of size k with replacement

We wish ti find the number of unordered sets { } where belong to } and repetition is allowed

5) A permutation. The number of permutations of n objects.

The notion of permutation is used with several slightly different meanings, all related to the act of permuting objects or values. Informally, a permutation of a set of objects is an arrangement of those objects into a particular order. For example, there are six permutations of the set {1,2,3}, namely (1,2,3), (1,3,2), (2,1,3), (2,3,1), (3,1,2), and (3,2,1).

The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken k at a time, denoted by Pnk, where repetitions are not allowed, is given by

Pnk=n(n−1)(n−2)...(nr+1)=n!/(nk)!