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A question of capital

In China, one reform often requires another. Get banks to allocate credit properly and they might need a bailout when debts go bad. Strengthen the legal system and it might compromise the supremacy of the party. Urbanisation is a major driver of sustainable growth, but growth in city-dwellers puts pressure on local government budgets. No single problem has a single solution.

That may be why President Hu Jintao’s outgoing government, which presided over impressive growth and stability for ten years, has achieved little lasting reform. Anachronisms like the one-child policy, and the “hukou” identity card system, which traps economic migrants in low-paid labour rather than comfortable consumerism, have yet to be swept away.

Xi might be different. What matters isn’t just whether he wants reform, but whether he can amass the political credibility to overcome opposition. That will take time to build up. Xi will have two former presidents, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, and other party seniors looking over his shoulder. Consolidating his power will take many months, at best.

The best hope is that Xi is less like Hu, and more like Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader most associated with successful reforms. When early opening up led to widespread corruption, Deng forged ahead anyway, remarking that “when you open the door, flies will get in”. Then, as now, the best tools for economic reform in China are a way with words, and a hard head.

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