Unit 14 The future of business Business brief

In the 1960s, we imagined a future of public transport based on elevated monorail system, and private transport with personal helicopters, or even spacecraft, for everyone. Today, the future looks more like the past than we imagined it would. Development has been continuous in many ways. For example, the car has become a mundane object, but with technology far in advance of that available even 20 years ago. However, its future source of power, a discontinuous development that will replace petrol, is still uncertain.

Futurology, with its futurologists or futurists, is a haphazard activity, despite attempts to formalize it. There is the Delphi method, where experts make their forecasts about a subject independently, and a referee circulates each forecast to the other members of the group, who comment on each other’s observations until they reach a consensus.

This can be one element of strategy, there companies make long-term plans about future activities. Here, they have to anticipate competitors’ activities as well as trends in the general economic environment. Very large companies work on scenario planning, imagining different ways in which the current situation may evolve, and their place in it, including ways in which they may ‘encourage’ it to develop in their favour.

The main course unit makes a number of social and economic predictions. As the Success business brief mentions (see unit 40), future successful products are notoriously hard to predict, as are the subtle combinations of social, cultural and technological circumstances that mean that something may succeed at one time but not another. The E-commerce business brief (Unit 7) looks at some of the trends in e-commerce and Internet use in this context.

A powerful force 30 years ago was protest at the way society and the economy were organized, for example against ‘faceless multinationals’. After a long period where youth shed its rebellious reputation, in this context at least, there are signs that activism outside traditional political parties is re-emerging as a social force, this time organized on a global level – witness the regular violent demonstrations against recent meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization, with planning of protests co-ordinated over the Internet. This trend may intensify.

Another factor that will certainly affect the way the future of business develops is global warming, which is now, after ten years of debate over whether it is happening or not, an incontrovertible fact. Some possible consequences of the greenhouse effect have predicted, but there will certainly be others we cannot even imagine.

Telephoning: getting the right information

You want to phone someone in a company. You pick up the phone. You hear the dialing tone and dial the number on the keypad. You do not know the person’s direct line number, so you dial the number of the company’s switchboard. One of these things happens:

1. The number rings but no one answers.

2. You hear the engaged tone/ busy tone because the other person is already talking on the phone. You hang up and try again later.

3. You get through, but not to the number you wanted. The person who answers says you have got the wrong number.

4. The operator answers. You ask for the extension of the person you want to speak to.

5. You are put through to the wrong extension. The person offers to transfer you to the right extension, but you are cut off – the call ends.

6. The person you want to speak to is not at their desk and you leave a message on their voicemail. You ask them to call you back or to return your call.

Asking and speaking to someone on the phone:

1. Can you put me through to extension 123, please?

2. Can I have extension 123, please?

3. Extension 123, please.

4. 123, please.

5. I phoned a moment ago, but I was cut off.

6. I’ll hold.

7. I will call back later.

8. One moment, please.

9. I’m putting you through.

10. The extension/ line is ringing for you.

11. Sorry to keep you waiting.

12. I think you have got the wrong extension. I’ll try and transfer you.

13. I’m afraid the line’s/ extension’s busy’ engaged.

14. I’m sorry, but there’s no reply.

15. Do you want to hold or would you like to phone later?

16. It’s Mary here.

17. This is Mary.

18. Can I speak to …?

19. Is that Ann?

20. Is this a good/ convenient time to call?

21. Speaking.

22. I’m afraid Mary isn’t at her desk, phone later.

23. I’m afraid Mary is on another line.

PS: If the person you want to speak to is not there, you may hear this:

You’re through to the voicemail of James Born. I’m not at my desk right now, but if you leave a message, I’ll get right back to you. To leave a message, press 1. To speak to the operator, please hold.

After you leave your message, you may hear:

To listen to your message, press 2.

After you listen to your message, you may hear:

If you’d like to change your message, press 3. If you’d like to erase your message, pres 4. Otherwise, please hang up.

Here are some ways of finishing a conversation without sounding abrupt:

1. See you on Friday then.

2. I’m going to have to go now.

3. I’ve got to go to a meeting.

4. It’s been nice talking to you.

5. Good to talk to you.

6. Talk to you soon, no doubt.

7. We’ll be back in touch soon.

8. Look forward to hearing from you soon.

9. Thanks for calling.

Tasks and exercises: