13. Egypt must resist relapse to despotism

Since President Hosni Mubarak fell in February, Egypt has become a freer country in many ways. But the ruling military council is continuing his tradition of using the threat of an Islamist takeover to perpetuate a government under which one political force can lord over all others.

Last week, military rulers began a dialogue with organizations and coalitions representing the youth of the revolution, spurred by nationwide protests calling on the military to ratify a new constitution before holding legislative elections. Instead, the military and the Muslim Brotherhood now insist on holding elections in September, and allowing the winners to draft the new constitution.

This is a formula for allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to supplant the military as the arbiter of another authoritarian system. The military council knows well what Western leaders fear when they see the brutal work of largely extremist groups such as the Salafis, who have been involved in a growing number of attacks against Christians and other Muslims in Egypt.

Whether or not they support these attacks, the military leaders may benefit from them politically, as the violence allows less radical but still religious groups like the Muslim Brotherhood to present themselves as more mainstream. This drags the country's political center farther toward the theocratic extremes, worrying Washington.

The Obama administration must make clear that the money it has promised Egypt's transitional government - $1 billion, plus another billion in loan guarantees - is tied to ongoing political and economic reforms, including respect for human rights, a truly democratic constitution with checks and balances, equality for all Egyptians under the law and a commitment to a free-market economy. These steps will help keep Egypt from sliding back to despotism.

(www.cnn.com)

14. Hopes fade for peaceful Arab transition to democracy

The roar of the jubilant crowd assembled in Cairo's Tahrir Square said it all.

Nearly four months ago, longtime Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak finally yielded to political reality and stepped down from power. Mubarak's fall - coming on the heels of the ouster of neighboring Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali - was seen by many as part of a domino effect.

The Arab world, it seemed, was finally on the brink of a peaceful democratic transition that had eluded the troubled region for generations.

Today, however, the promise of a peaceful Arab Spring appears to be yielding to the reality of a long, violent summer as dictators across the Middle East and North Africa draw a line in the sand and fight to maintain control of their countries. Protesters, meanwhile, are showing no sign of backing down.

"We've seen the last (Middle East) dictator leave voluntarily," Michael Rubin, a regional expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative Washington think tank, recently told CNN.

U.S. President Barack Obama and other Western leaders will continue to push for peaceful change when possible, Rubin said. But dictators in the region have been spooked by the fate of Mubarak, who is now facing trial and a possible death sentence, and Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, who is facing an onslaught from armed rebels and NATO air forces.

They "see there is no possibility of a peaceful retirement," Rubin said. And many of them also "believe that their country is their personal fight."

While it is possible to identify trends that pertain to the entire region, a number of analysts stress that each country has unique circumstances and challenges that throw the notion of an all-encompassing Arab Spring into question.

(www.cnn.com)