- •Clients have the late cycle blues. Us too.
- •But we disagree with consensus on a few things: the Fed…
- •…and the dollar…
- •…and investors are now more bullish on EM. We are not.
- •Raw data
- •Raw data
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- •Analyst Certifications and Important Disclosures
- •Important Disclosures Continued
- •Disclaimer
- •Disclaimer (continued)
vk.com/id446425943
Raw data
Table of Contents
Sample characteristics..……………………………..page 7
Macro………………………………………………….pages 8-10
Equities………………………………………………..pages 11-12
Credit…………………………………………………..pages 13-14
Interest rates……………………………………...…..pages 15-17
Foreign exchange..…………………………………..pages 18-20 Emerging Markets …………………………………..pages 21-23
Commodities…………………………………..……..pages 24-26
Restricted - External
6 |
December 14, 2018 |
vk.com/id446425943
Raw data
Sample characteristics
The region where you are based: |
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The type of investor you are: |
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60% |
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Q4 2018 |
Q3 2018 |
50% |
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Q4 2018 |
Q3 2018 |
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50% |
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40% |
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40% |
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30% |
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30% |
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20% |
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20% |
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10% |
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10% |
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0% |
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0% |
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Long only |
Leveraged |
Bank |
Corporate |
Official |
Commodity |
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North |
Europe |
UK |
Japan Asia ex-Japan CEEMEA |
LatAm |
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institution |
Trading |
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America |
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Advisors (CTA) |
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The one area that best describes your primary focus:
45% |
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Q4 2018 |
Q3 2018 |
40% |
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35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
EM |
Foreign |
Rates |
Credit |
Equities |
Commodities |
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Exchange |
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Restricted - External
7 |
December 14, 2018 |
vk.com/id446425943
Raw data
Macro
Which asset class do you think will provide the best return in the next three months?
If there is a surprise in global growth in the next 12 months, it will be:
60% |
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Q4 2018 |
Q3 2018 |
60% |
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Q4 2018 |
Q3 2018 |
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50% |
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50% |
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40% |
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40% |
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30% |
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30% |
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20% |
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20% |
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10% |
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0% |
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10% |
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Equities |
Commodities Emerging |
Credit |
Short-end, |
Long-end, |
0% |
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Markets (rates, |
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high-quality |
high-quality |
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An upside surprise |
A downside surprise |
Growth will be around the |
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credit & FX) |
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bonds |
bonds |
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consensus |
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Where do you think growth is most likely to:
80% |
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Q4 2018 |
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Q3 2018 |
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70% |
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60% |
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50% |
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40% |
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30% |
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20% |
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10% |
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0% |
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Surprise to the upside |
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Surprise to the downside |
Surprise to the upside |
Surprise to the downside |
Surprise to the upside |
Surprise to the downside |
Surprise to the upside |
Surprise to the downside |
Surprise to the upside |
Surprise to the downside |
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US |
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Eurozone |
Japan |
China |
EM ex-China |
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What is the biggest risk to market prices in the next 12-24 months?
90%
Q4 2018 Q3 2018
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Inflation |
Deflation |
Restricted - External
8 |
December 14, 2018 |
vk.com/id446425943
Raw data
Macro
In 2019, will the market risks presented by the following issues will increase, decrease, or remain the same compared to 2018?
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
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Decrease |
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Remain the same |
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Increase |
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Economic confrontation |
North Korean nuclear escalation |
Regional conflict in Iraq |
Conflict in Yemen leading to |
Russian political/military |
Brexit |
Migration into Europe leading |
between the United States and |
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and Syria drawing in major |
Saudi Arabia / Iran tensions |
resurgence and power |
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to a rise in European populism |
China ("Trade War") |
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powers (particularly Russia and |
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projection (High North, Baltic, |
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and fragmentation |
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the US) |
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Black Sea, Syria) |
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What is the biggest risk to markets over the next 12 months? |
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Over the next six months, which of the following do you |
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consider to be the biggest risk to investor sentiment to arise |
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from Europe? |
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30% |
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40% |
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25% |
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35% |
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20% |
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30% |
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15% |
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25% |
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10% |
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20% |
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15% |
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5% |
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10% |
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0% |
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5% |
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Geopolitical |
A trade war |
An acceleration |
Weak growth in |
A substantial |
Other |
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developments |
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in monetary |
China/emerging deterioration in |
0% |
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policy tightening |
markets |
the pace of |
Brexit negotiation |
Budget |
ECB policy |
Disappointing |
Other |
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developed |
risks |
uncertainty in Italy |
uncertainty |
euro area activity |
|
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market growth |
Restricted - External |
|
|
data |
|
9 |
December 14, 2018 |