рынок моды экономика
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80 AP P E N DI X C C O M M O DI T Y M ARKE T S O U T LOO K | AP RI L 2 0 1 9
Weights for commodity price indexes
Commodity group |
Share of energy and non-energy indexes |
Share of sub-group indexes |
|
|
|
ENERGY |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
Coal |
4.7 |
4.7 |
Crude Oil |
84.6 |
84.6 |
|
|
|
Natural Gas |
10.8 |
10.8 |
NON-ENERGY |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
Agriculture |
64.9 |
|
Beverages |
8.4 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
Coffee |
3.8 |
45.7 |
Cocoa |
3.1 |
36.9 |
|
|
|
Tea |
1.5 |
17.4 |
Food |
40.0 |
|
|
|
|
Grains |
11.3 |
100.0 |
Rice |
3.4 |
30.1 |
|
|
|
Wheat |
2.8 |
25.2 |
Maize (includes sorghum) |
4.6 |
40.7 |
|
|
|
Barley |
0.5 |
4.1 |
Oils and meals |
16.3 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
Soybeans |
4.0 |
24.6 |
Soybean Oil |
2.1 |
13.0 |
|
|
|
Soybean Meal |
4.3 |
26.3 |
Palm Oil |
4.9 |
30.2 |
|
|
|
Coconut Oil |
0.5 |
3.1 |
Groundnut Oil (includes groundnuts) |
0.5 |
2.8 |
|
|
|
Other food |
12.4 |
100.0 |
Sugar |
3.9 |
31.5 |
|
|
|
Bananas |
1.9 |
15.7 |
Meat, beef |
2.7 |
22.0 |
|
|
|
Meat, chicken |
2.4 |
19.2 |
Oranges (includes orange junice) |
1.4 |
11.6 |
|
|
|
Agricultural Raw Materials |
16.5 |
|
Timber |
8.6 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
Logs |
1.9 |
22.1 |
Sawnwood |
6.7 |
77.9 |
|
|
|
Other Raw Materials |
7.9 |
100.0 |
Cotton |
1.9 |
24.7 |
|
|
|
Natural Rubber |
3.7 |
46.7 |
Tobacco |
2.3 |
28.7 |
|
|
|
Fertilizers |
3.6 |
100.0 |
Natural Phosphate Rock |
0.6 |
16.9 |
|
|
|
Phosphate |
0.8 |
21.7 |
Potassium |
0.7 |
20.1 |
|
|
|
Nitogenous |
1.5 |
41.3 |
Metals and Minerals |
31.6 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
Aluminum |
8.4 |
26.7 |
Copper |
12.1 |
38.4 |
|
|
|
Iron Ore |
6.0 |
18.9 |
Lead |
0.6 |
1.8 |
|
|
|
Nickel |
2.5 |
8.1 |
Tin |
0.7 |
2.1 |
|
|
|
Zinc |
1.3 |
4.1 |
PRECIOUS METALS |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
Gold |
77.8 |
|
Silver |
18.9 |
|
|
|
|
Platinum |
3.3 |
|
|
|
|
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C O M M O DI T Y M ARKE T S O U T LOO K | AP RI L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DI X C 81
Commodity Markets Outlook: Selected Topics, 2011-18
Topics |
Date |
|
|
Food Price Shocks: Channels and Implications |
April 2019 |
|
|
The implications of tariffs for commodity markets |
October 2018 |
|
|
The changing of the guard: Shifts in commodity demand |
October 2018 |
|
|
Oil exporters: Policies and challenges |
April 2018 |
|
|
Investment weakness in commodity exporters |
January 2017 |
|
|
OPEC in historical context: Commodity agreements and market fundamentals |
October 2016 |
|
|
From energy prices to food prices: Moving in tandem? |
July 2016 |
|
|
Resource development in era of cheap commodities |
April 2016 |
|
|
Weak growth in emerging market economies: What does it imply for commodity markets? |
January 2016 |
|
|
Understanding El Niño: What does it mean for commodity markets? |
October 2015 |
|
|
Iran nuclear agreement: A game changer for energy markets? |
October 2015 |
|
|
How important are China and India in global commodity consumption? |
July 2015 |
|
|
Anatomy of the last four oil price crashes |
April 2015 |
|
|
Oil price plunge in perspective |
January 2015 |
|
|
The role of income growth in commodities |
October 2014 |
|
|
Price volatility for most commodities has returned to historical norms |
July 2014 |
|
|
The nature and causes of oil price volatility |
January 2014 |
|
|
A global energy market? |
July 2013 |
|
|
Global reserves, demand growth, and the “super cycle” hypothesis |
July 2013 |
|
|
The “energy revolution,” innovation, and the nature of substitution |
January 2013 |
|
|
Commodity prices: levels, volatility, and comovement |
January 2013 |
|
|
Which drivers matter most in food price movements? |
January 2013 |
|
|
Induced innovation, price divergence, and substitution |
June 2012 |
|
|
The role of emerging markets in commodity consumption |
June 2012 |
|
|
WTI-Brent price dislocation |
January 2012 |
|
|
Metals consumption in China and India |
January 2012 |
|
|
China, global metal demand, and the super-cycle hypothesis |
June 2011 |
|
|
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Energy prices were down 8 percent in 2019 Q1 (q/q) with sharp falls in coal and natural gas prices, while oil prices have risen steadily since the start of the year. Non-energy prices were up in the first quarter. Crude oil prices, which averaged $68/bbl in 2018, are expected to average $66/bbl over 2019 and $65/bbl in 2020, although the forecast remains highly dependent on policy outcomes. In 2019, non-energy prices are expected to remain below 2018 levels before rising moderately in 2020.
A Special Focus analyzes the nature of policy intervention by countries in the event of large swings in world food prices. It concludes that while individual countries can succeed at
insulating their domestic markets, the collective intervention of many countries may amplify movements in world prices.
The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook is published twice a year, in April and October. The report provides detailed market analysis for major commodity groups, including energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals,
and fertilizers. Price forecasts to 2030 for 46 commodities are also presented together with historical price data. Commodity price data updates are published separately at the beginning of each month.
The report and data can be accessed at:
www.worldbank.org/commodities