umm_6918
.pdfE&F(BH(A&?>(; Z@B %IKI%$&@ EB%@BFG&MI& %B %F&M&'( >B#&O$'(G F$K#(A'IJ DFB%'&C FGHB% H('$M(>(. +&C?@%(& F$KB%IJ (?EBF$H(A&?>(J) L$>@BFB% B@BOF$- U$&@?G ?#DA$C'IM( (>F$@>B%F&M&''IM() (KM&'&'(GM( DFB%'&C FGHB% H('$M(- >(.
0$K#(A'I& F&KD#V@$@I H&C?@%(G EB?@BG''IJ, E&F(BH(A&?>(J ( F$KB%IJ EF(A(' ( L$>@BFB% '$ DFB%'( F$K%(@(G ?B=($#V'B-Z>B'BM(A&?>(J G%#&'(C %B %F&M&'( BOD?#$%#(%$[@ '&BOJBH(MB?@V (KDA&'(G B?'B%'IJ >BMEB'&'@B% FGHB% H('$M(>(: @F&'H$, E&F(BH(A&?>(J >B#&O$'(C, ?#DA$C'IJ B@>#B'&'(C.
!?BO&''B?@V (KDA&'(G F$K%(@(G ?B=($#V'B-Z>B'BM(A&?>(J G%#&'(C %B %F&M&'( EF&HEB#$"$&@ @B, A@B % BH'(J FGH$J H('$M(>( B?'B%'$G @&'H&'=(G FB?- @$ EFBG%#G&@?G EF( %(KD$#V'BM BOKBF& (?JBH'BC ('LBFM$=((, % HFD"(J FGH$J H('$M(>( B'$ '&EB?F&H?@%&''B '& EFBG%#G&@?G. !'$ MBU&@ OI@V %IF$U&'$ F$?- A&@'IM ED@&M % %(H& '&>B@BFB"B @&BF&@(A&?>B"B DFB%'G.
!?'B%'BC M&@BH %IG%#&'(G @F&'H$ – M&@BH $'$#(@(A&?>B"B %IF$%'(%$- '(G, B?'B%'B& ?BH&FU$'(& >B@BFB"B K$>#[A$&@?G % @BM, A@B B?'B%'$G @&'H&'=(G F$K%(@(G y(ti)F$??A(@I%$&@?G >$> LD'>=(G %F&M&'(: y(ti) # f (ti).
) ?B%F&M&''BC ?@$@(?@(>& % >$A&?@%& Z@$#B''B"B @(E$ F$K%(@(G (?EB#VKD- &@?G EFGMB#('&C'$G LD'>=(G F$K%(@(G
y(t ) # a |
( a t , |
(3.14) |
|
i |
0 1 i |
||
|
"H& a0 , a1 – E$F$M&@FI DF$%'&'(G; ti – BOBK'$A&'(& %F&M&'(.
+#G %IA(?#&'(G E$F$M&@FB% EFGMB#('&C'BC LD'>=(( (3.14) '$ B?'B%& @F&OB%$'(C M&@BH$ '$(M&'VN(J >%$HF$@B% ?B?@$%#G&@?G ?(?@&M$ 'BFM$#V'IJ DF$%'&'(C
: |
na |
|
( a $t |
|
# $y |
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
|
|
0 |
1 |
i |
# $t |
i |
y |
, |
(3.15) |
79a |
0 |
$t |
i |
( a $t2 |
|
i |
||||
8 |
|
1 i |
i |
|
|
|||||
+#G BEF&H&'(G E$F$M&@FB% M$@&M$@(A&?>(J LD'>=(C EF( $'$#(K& @F&'- H$ % FGH$J H('$M(>( (?EB#VKD&@?G ?EB?BO B@?A&@$ B@ D?#B%'B"B 'D#G. !' B?'B- %$' '$ BOBK'$A&'(( % FGHD H('$M(>( EB>$K$'(C %F&M&'( @$>(M BOF$KBM, A@BOI $ti # 0 . /B"H$ E$F$M&@FI DF$%'&'(G EFGMB#('&C'BC LD'>=(( F$??A(@I%$[@?G
EB ?#&HD[Y(M LBFMD#$M: |
|
$yi |
|
$yiti |
|
|
|
a |
|
# |
, a # |
. |
(3.16–3.17) |
||
0 |
|
|
|||||
|
|
n |
1 |
$ti |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|||
0$??A(@$&M E$F$M&@FI #('&C'B"B DF$%'&'(G @F&'H$ a0 ( a1 H#G H$''IJ,
EF(%&H&''IJ % @$O#. 3.1. +#G Z@B"B % @$O#. 3.3 B?DY&?@%(M EFBM&UD@BA'I& F$?- A&@I.
30
!"#$%&" 3.2
0$?A&@ ('H(%(HD$#V'IJ K'$A&'(C EB>$K$@&C H('$M(>( "FDKBBOBFB@$ $%@B@F$'?EBF@'IJ EF&HEF(G@(C ". *>$@&F('ODF"$
K$ 2004–2008 "".
|
|
3O?B#[@'IC EF(FB?@, |
/&ME FB?@$, |
/&ME EF(FB?@$, |
/&ME '$- |
3O?B#[@'B& |
<D'>@ |
|||
|
|
M#' @->M |
>BZLL(=(&'@ |
>BZLL(=(&'@ |
F$Y(%$- |
K'$A&'(& |
||||
|
WFDKBBOBFB@, |
FB?@$, |
||||||||
<&F(BH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
'(G, >B- |
1 % EF(FB?- |
||
M#' @->M |
=&E'BC |
O$K(?'IC |
=&E'BC |
O$K(?'IC |
=&E'BC |
O$K(?'IC |
>BZLL(- |
|||
|
|
ZLL(=(- |
@$, |
=(&'@ |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
&'@ |
M#' @->M |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
=&E' |
O$K |
=&E' |
O$K |
=&E' |
O$K |
T'i |
6(%)i |
<Fi |
|
yi |
6yi |
6yi |
TFi |
TFi |
TEi |
TEi |
|||
2004 |
52,266 |
– |
– |
1,000 |
1,000 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
53,109 |
0,843 |
0,843 |
1,016 |
1,016 |
0,016 |
0,016 |
0,016 |
0,523 |
0,016 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006 |
54,060 |
0,951 |
1,794 |
1,018 |
1,034 |
0,018 |
0,034 |
0,018 |
0,531 |
0,018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 |
55,925 |
1,864 |
3,658 |
1,034 |
1,070 |
0,034 |
0,070 |
0,036 |
0,541 |
0,036 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 |
56,983 |
1,058 |
4,717 |
1,019 |
1,090 |
0,019 |
0,090 |
0,020 |
0,559 |
0,020 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
272,344 |
4,717 |
|
1,090 |
|
|
|
|
|
0,090 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!"#$%&" 3.3 |
|
P$@F(=$ BEF&H&'(G E$F$M&@FB% #('&C'B"B DF$%'&'(G @F&'H$ |
||||||
|
|
WFDKBBOB- |
<BFGH>B%IC |
|
|
|
|
<&F(BH |
|
FB@, |
'BM&F |
|
0$?A&@'I& "F$LI |
|
|
|
|
M#' @->M |
E&F(BH$ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
yi |
ti |
yiti |
ti2 |
y(ti ) |
(yi % y(ti ))2 |
2004 |
|
7,429 |
-19 |
-141,151 |
361 |
12,574 |
26,466 |
I |
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
|
15,545 |
-17 |
-264,265 |
289 |
12,683 |
8,189 |
III |
|
18,207 |
-15 |
-273,105 |
225 |
12,793 |
29,309 |
IV |
|
11,085 |
-13 |
-144,105 |
169 |
12,903 |
3,305 |
2005 |
|
8,016 |
-11 |
-88,176 |
121 |
13,013 |
24,969 |
I |
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
|
15,921 |
-9 |
-143,289 |
81 |
13,123 |
7,830 |
III |
|
19,236 |
-7 |
-134,652 |
49 |
13,233 |
36,040 |
IV |
|
9,936 |
-5 |
-49,68 |
25 |
13,343 |
11,604 |
2006 |
|
8,255 |
-3 |
-24,765 |
9 |
13,452 |
27,013 |
I |
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
|
16,111 |
-1 |
-16,111 |
1 |
13,562 |
6,496 |
III |
|
19,867 |
1 |
19,867 |
1 |
13,672 |
38,377 |
IV |
|
9,827 |
3 |
29,481 |
9 |
13,782 |
15,642 |
2007 |
|
8,711 |
5 |
43,555 |
25 |
13,892 |
26,841 |
I |
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
|
16,962 |
7 |
118,734 |
49 |
14,002 |
8,764 |
III |
|
20,102 |
9 |
180,918 |
81 |
14,112 |
35,886 |
IV |
|
10,15 |
11 |
111,65 |
121 |
14,221 |
16,576 |
2008 |
|
8,916 |
13 |
115,908 |
169 |
14,331 |
29,325 |
I |
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
|
15,987 |
15 |
239,805 |
225 |
14,441 |
2,390 |
III |
|
22,014 |
17 |
374,238 |
289 |
14,551 |
55,697 |
IV |
|
10,066 |
19 |
191,254 |
361 |
14,661 |
21,112 |
-@B"B |
|
272,343 |
0 |
146,111 |
2660 |
272,343 |
431,831 |
/B"H$ E$F$M&@FI #('&C'B"B DF$%'&'(G @F&'H$ a0 ( a1 EF(MD@ ?#&HD[-
Y(& K'$A&'(G:
a # 272,343 #13,617 M#' @->M; 0 20
a1 # 146,1112660 # 0,055.
<FGMB#('&C'B& DF$%'&'(& @F&'H$ EF(M&@ ?#&HD[Y(C %(H:
y(ti) #13,617 ( 0,055ti .
+#G EFB%&F>( $H&>%$@'B?@( M$@&M$@(A&?>BC LD'>=(( F$??A(@I%$&@?G ?@$'H$F@(K(FB%$''$G BN(O>$ $EEFB>?(M$=(( ^
|
$(y(t |
) % y |
)2 |
|
(3.18) |
^y(ti ) # |
i |
i |
|
. |
|
|
n |
|
|
32
) @$O#. 3.3 EF(%&H&'I '&BOJBH(MI& F$?A&@I H#G BEF&H&'(G @$>BC BN(O>(; @B"H$ B'$ EF('(M$&@ K'$A&'(&
^ |
|
# |
431,831 |
# 4,647 M#' @->M. |
|
y(ti) |
20 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
||
+#G D@BA'&'(G K'$A(MB?@( DF$%'&'(G @F&'H$ F$??A(@I%$&@?G B@'B?(@V- '$G BN(O>$ $EEFB>?(M$=((
^y(ti)
^% # y !100.
) '$N&M ?#DA$& ?F&H'&& K'$A&'(& DFB%'G FGH$ H#G >%$F@$#B% ?B?@$%#G&@
y # 242,343 #13,617 M#' @->M. 20
/B"H$ B@'B?(@V'$G BN(O>$ $EEFB>?(M$=(( ?B?@$%(@
"% # 134,,647617 !100 # 34,1 %.
/$>(M BOF$KBM, EB#BU(@V'B& K'$A&'(& E$F$M&@F$ "1 DF$%'&'(G @F&'H$
?%(H&@V?@%D&@ B EB#BU(@V'BC @&'H&'=(( F$K%(@(G, $ &"B %(A('$ ("1 # 0,055) ?%(H&@V?@%D&@ B @BM, A@B % ?F&H'&M K$ >%$F@$# "FDKBBOBFB@ D%&-
#(A(%$&@?G '$ 5,5 %. 3'$#(K B@'B?(@V'BC BN(O>( $EEFB>?(M$=(( EBK%B#G&@ ?H$@V %I%BH, A@B EB?@FB&''$G MBHV @F&'H$ JBFBNB B@BOF$U$&@ "BHB%B& (K- M&'&'(& "FDKBBOBFB@$ (^% / 50 %), 'B && '&HB?@$@BA'B H#G B?DY&?@%#&'(G
EFB"'BK(FB%$'(G DFB%'&C FGH$ H('$M(>( '$ EB?#&HD[Y(C E&F(BH (^% .10 %),
@. &. DF$%'&'(& B?'B%'BC @&'H&'=(( F$K%(@(G 'DUH$&@?G % D@BA'&'((, >B@BFB& B?D- Y&?@%#G&@?G ED@&M %IG%#&'(G %B#'I ?&KB''B?@(.
,$ F(?. 3.1 ?@B#O(>B%BC H($"F$MMBC EF&H?@$%#&'I F&$#V'I& DFB%'( (KD- A$&MB"B G%#&'(G – (KM&'&'(G "FDKBBOBFB@$ %B %F&M&'(, #('&C'BC H($"F$MMBC EF&H?@$%#&''I& DFB%'(, %IFB%'&''I& EF( EBMBY( DF$%'&'(G H('$M(>(. -KB- OF$U&'(& ?%(H&@V?@%D&@ B @BM, A@B #('&C'B& DF$%'&'(& H('$M(>( HB?@$@BA'B JBFBNB B@BOF$U$&@ "BHB%I& (KM&'&'(G.
y(ti ) # 13,617 ( 0,055ti
0(?. 3.1. +('$M(>$ "FDKBBOBFB@$ ? DA&@BM (KM&'&'(C EB "BH$M
33
3.4. !IEAG78=7 ;7K?88IJ 9?G7O:8=@
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
+#G $'$#(K$ %'D@F("BHB%BC H('$M(>( ?B=($#V'B-Z>B'BM(A&?>(J G%#&'(C (?EB#VKD[@?G "$FMB'(>( FGH$ XDFV&. <F( $'$#(@(A&?>BM %IF$U&'(( (KM&'&- '(G DFB%'&C FGH$ H('$M(>( (?EB#VKD&@?G LBFMD#$
.(t |
i |
) # a |
0 |
( a |
2 |
cost |
?&K ( " |
3 |
sint |
?&K |
, |
(3.19) |
|
|
|
|
i |
|
i |
|
|
"H& "0 , "2 , "3– E$F$M&@FI DF$%'&'(G "$FMB'(>( FGH$ XDFV&; ti?&K – EBFGH>B%I&
'BM&F$ E&F(BHB% % F$H($''BM %IF$U&'((.
<F( F&N&'(( DF$%'&'(G (3.19) E$F$M&@FI BEF&HG[@?G '$ B?'B%& EB#B- U&'(C M&@BH$ '$(M&'VN(J >%$HF$@B%. !EF&HGG A$?@'I& EFB(K%BH'I& ( EF(- F$%'(%$G (J > 'D#[, EB#DA$[@ ?(?@&MD 'BFM$#V'IJ DF$%'&'(C, E$F$M&@FI >B- @BFBC %IA(?#G[@?G EB ?#&HD[Y(M LBFMD#$M:
" |
# |
2 |
$y |
cost?&K |
, a |
|
# |
2 |
$y |
|
sint |
?&K |
(3.20–3.21) |
|
n |
3 |
n |
i |
i |
||||||||||
2 |
|
i |
i |
|
|
|
|
|
<F( $'$#(K& %'D@F("BHB%BC H('$M(>( EB >%$F@$#$M, E&F(BHI >$> A$?@'B- ?@( B>FDU'B?@( EF('(M$[@ %(H, EF&H?@$%#&''IC % @$O#. 3.4.
!"#$%&" 3.4
0$H($''B& EF&H?@$%#&'(& EBFGH>B%IJ 'BM&FB% >%$F@$#B%
?&K |
) |
0 |
= |
= |
3= |
<&F(BHI (ti |
2 |
2 |
|||
1FB%'( |
|
.1 |
.2 |
.3 |
.4 |
0$??MB@F(M EF(M&F EB?@FB&'(G MBH( %'D@F("BHB%BC H('$M(>( EB E&F- %BC "$FMB'(>& FGH$ XDFV& H#G H$''IJ EF(%&H&''IJ % @$O#. 3.1. +#G BEF&H&- '(G E$F$M&@FB% DF$%'&'(G "0 ( "1 ?B?@$%(M @$O#. 3.5.
34
!"#$%&" 3.5
P$@F(=$ BEF&H&'(G E$F$M&@FB% DF$%'&'(G FGH$ XDFV&
<&- |
WFDKBBOBFB@, |
<BFGH>B%IC |
|
|
|
|
|
0$?A&@'I& "F$LI |
|
|
|
||
F(BH |
M#' @->M |
'BM&F E&F(BH$ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
y |
i |
t?&K |
y |
i |
cost?&K |
y |
i |
sint?&K |
y(t?&K ) |
(y |
i |
% y(t?&K ))2 |
|
|
i |
|
i |
|
i |
i |
|
i |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
7,429 |
0 |
|
7,429 |
|
0,000 |
7,807 |
|
|
0,143 |
|||
I |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
15,545 |
= |
|
0,000 |
15,545 |
16,563 |
|
|
1,037 |
||||
2 |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
18,207 |
= |
-18,207 |
|
0,000 |
19,427 |
|
|
1,489 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IV |
11,085 |
3= |
|
0,000 |
-11,085 |
10,671 |
|
|
0,171 |
||||
2 |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
8,016 |
0 |
|
8,016 |
|
0,000 |
7,807 |
|
|
0,044 |
|||
I |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
15,921 |
= |
|
0,000 |
15,921 |
16,563 |
|
|
0,413 |
||||
2 |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
19,236 |
= |
-19,236 |
|
0,000 |
19,427 |
|
|
0,037 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IV |
9,936 |
3= |
|
0,000 |
-9,936 |
10,671 |
|
|
0,540 |
||||
2 |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006 |
8,255 |
0 |
|
8,255 |
|
0,000 |
7,807 |
|
|
0,200 |
|||
I |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
16,111 |
= |
|
0,000 |
16,111 |
16,563 |
|
|
0,205 |
||||
2 |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
19,867 |
= |
-19,867 |
|
0,000 |
19,427 |
|
|
0,194 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IV |
9,827 |
3= |
|
0,000 |
-9,827 |
10,671 |
|
|
0,712 |
||||
2 |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 |
8,711 |
0 |
|
8,711 |
|
0,000 |
7,807 |
|
|
0,817 |
|||
I |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
16,962 |
= |
|
0,000 |
16,962 |
16,563 |
|
|
0,159 |
||||
2 |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
20,102 |
= |
-20,102 |
|
0,000 |
19,427 |
|
|
0,456 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IV |
10,15 |
3= |
|
0,000 |
-10,150 |
10,671 |
|
|
0,271 |
||||
2 |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 |
8,916 |
0 |
|
8,916 |
|
0,000 |
7,807 |
|
|
1,229 |
|||
I |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
15,987 |
= |
|
0,000 |
15,987 |
16,563 |
|
|
0,332 |
||||
2 |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
22,014 |
= |
-22,014 |
|
0,000 |
19,427 |
|
|
6,692 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
IV |
10,066 |
|
|
0,000 |
-10,066 |
10,671 |
|
|
0,366 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-@B- |
272,343 |
0 |
-58,099 |
29,462 |
272,343 |
|
|
15,506 |
|||||
"B |
|
|
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<$F$M&@FI DF$%'&'(G "$FMB'(>( E&F%B"B EBFGH>$ FGH$ XDFV& EF(MD@ ?#&HD[Y(& K'$A&'(G
" |
|
# |
2 |
(%58,099) # %5,810; " |
|
# |
2 |
29,462 # 2,946. |
|
2 |
20 |
3 |
20 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
<B EB#DA&''IM E$F$M&@F$M ?('@&K(FD&@?G M$@&M$@(A&?>$G MBHV y(ti?&K) #13,617 % 5,810costi?&K ( 2,946sinti?&K .
35
+#G B=&'>( $H&>%$@'B?@( EB?@FB&''BC MBH( F$??A(@$&M ?@$'H$F@(K(- FB%$''D[ ( B@'B?(@V'D[ BN(O>( $EEFB>?(M$=((
^ |
# |
15,506 |
# 0,881 M#' @->M, |
||
|
20 |
||||
y(t?&K) |
|
|
|||
i |
|
|
|
|
|
^% # 130,,881617 !100 # 6,5 %.
!@'B?(@V'$G BN(O>$ $EEFB>?(M$=(( H#G MBH(, EB?@FB&''BC H#G ?&- KB''IJ >B#&O$'(C, HB?@$@BA'B '&%(>$, EBZ@BMD MBU&@ (?EB#VKB%$@V?G H#G D@BA'&'(G EFGMB#('&C'BC MBH( @F&'H$.
X$>@(A&?>(& K'$A&'(G "FDKBBOBFB@$ ( DFB%'(, %IFB%'&''I& EB DF$%'&- '([ E&F%BC "$FMB'(>( XDFV& EF(%&H&'I '$ F(?. 3.2.
"FDKBBOBFB@, 1$0 )-21 |
y(ti?&K) #13,617%5,810costi?&K ( 2,946sin ti?&K
0(?. 3.2. +('$M(>$ "FDKBBOBFB@$ ? DA&@BM %'D@F("BHB%IJ >B#&O$'(C
3.5. 5?;<D?78=7 9?MO=8=D?A:88?@ M?F7G= F=8:M=9= = CD?H8?K=D?A:8=7
2BMO('(FB%$''$G @F&'HB%B-?&KB''$G MBHV H('$M(>( EBK%B#G&@ DA(@I- %$@V BO& "FDEEI %F&M&''IJ L$>@BFB%: EB?@BG''I& ( ?&KB''I&. /$>$G MBHV ?@FB(@?G ED@&M BO\&H('&'(G #('&C'B"B DF$%'&'(G H('$M(>( ( MBH( FGH$ XDFV&
y(t,t |
?&K) # " |
0 |
( " t % " |
2 |
cost |
?&K ( " |
3 |
sint |
?&K |
, |
(3.22) |
|
i |
1 |
|
i |
|
i |
|
|
<BH?@$%#GG EB#DA&''I& E$F$M&@FI DF$%'&'(C H('$M(>( % LBFMD#D (3.22) EB#DA$&M ?#&HD[YD[ >BMO('(FB%$''D[ MBHV
y(t,ti?&K) #13,617 ( 0,055t % 5,810costi?&K ( 2,946sinti?&K.
+#G BEF&H&'(G $O?B#[@'BC ( B@'B?(@V'BC BN(OB> $EEFB>?(M$=(( K$EB#'G&@?G @$O#. 3.6.
36
!"#$%&" 3.6
P$@F(=$ BEF&H&'(G DFB%'&C FGH$ H('$M(>(, %IFB%'&''IJ
EB >BMO('(FB%$''BC MBH(
<&F(BH |
WFDKBBOBFB@, |
<BFGH>B%IC 'BM&F |
0$?A&@'I& "F$LI |
|||||||
M#' @->M |
|
|
E&F(BH$ |
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
y |
i |
t |
i |
|
t?&K |
.(t,t?&K ) |
(. |
i |
% .(t,t?&K ))2 |
|
|
|
|
i |
i |
|
i |
|||
2004 |
7,429 |
-19 |
|
0 |
6,762 |
|
|
0,445 |
||
I |
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
15,545 |
-17 |
|
= |
15,628 |
|
|
0,007 |
||
|
2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
18,207 |
-15 |
|
= |
18,602 |
|
|
0,156 |
||
IV |
11,085 |
-13 |
|
3= |
9,956 |
|
|
1,275 |
||
|
2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
8,016 |
-11 |
|
0 |
7,202 |
|
|
0,663 |
||
I |
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
15,921 |
-9 |
|
= |
16,068 |
|
|
0,022 |
||
|
2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
19,236 |
-7 |
|
= |
19,042 |
|
|
0,038 |
||
IV |
9,936 |
-5 |
|
3= |
10,396 |
|
|
0,212 |
||
|
2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006 |
8,255 |
-3 |
|
0 |
7,642 |
|
|
0,376 |
||
I |
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
16,111 |
-1 |
|
= |
16,508 |
|
|
0,158 |
||
|
2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
19,867 |
1 |
|
= |
19,482 |
|
|
0,148 |
||
IV |
9,827 |
3 |
|
3= |
10,836 |
|
|
1,018 |
||
|
2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 |
8,711 |
5 |
|
0 |
8,082 |
|
|
0,396 |
||
I |
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
16,962 |
7 |
|
= |
16,948 |
|
|
0,000 |
||
|
2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
20,102 |
9 |
|
= |
19,922 |
|
|
0,032 |
||
IV |
10,15 |
11 |
|
3= |
11,276 |
|
|
1,268 |
||
|
2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 |
8,916 |
13 |
|
0 |
8,522 |
|
|
0,155 |
||
I |
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
II |
15,987 |
15 |
|
= |
17,388 |
|
|
1,963 |
||
|
2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
III |
22,014 |
17 |
|
= |
20,362 |
|
|
2,729 |
||
IV |
10,066 |
19 |
|
|
11,716 |
|
|
2,723 |
||
()*+*: |
272,343 |
0 |
|
0 |
272,340 |
|
|
13,781 |
||
3O?B#[@'$G ( B@'B?(@V'$G BN(O>( >BMO('(FB%$''BC MBH( EF(MD@ ?#&HD[Y(& K'$A&'(G:
^ |
|
# |
13,781 |
# 0,830 M#' @->M, |
||
?&K |
|
20 |
|
|||
|
) |
|
|
|||
|
y(ti |
|
|
|
|
|
"% # 130,,830617 !100 # 6,1 %.
)(A('$ B@'B?(@V'BC BN(O>( >BMO('(FB%$''BC MBH( M&'VN&, A&M H#G %?&J B?@$#V'IJ MBH&C. /$>(M BOF$KBM, >BMO('(FB%$''$G MBHV '$(-
37
#DAN(M BOF$KBM B@BOF$U$&@ (KM&'&'(& BO\&MB% "FDKBBOBFB@$ %B %F&M&'( ( MBU&@ (?EB#VKB%$@V?G H#G EFB"'BK(FB%$'(G '$ ODHDY(C E&F(BH.
WF$L(> F&$#V'IJ K'$A&'(C "FDKBBOBFB@$ ( "FDKBBOBFB@$, %IFB%'&''B"B EB >BMO('(FB%$''BC MBH(, EF&H?@$%#&' '$ F(?. 3.3. -?JBHG (K "F$L(>$, MBU- 'B ?H$@V %I%BH, A@B >BMO('(FB%$''$G MBHV HB?@$@BA'B JBFBNB B@BOF$U$&@ L$>@(A&?>(& K'$A&'(G (KDA$&MB"B G%#&'(G.
)-21 |
"FDKBBOBFB@, 1$0 |
y(ti ,ti?&K) # 13,617 ( 0,055t % 5,810 costi?&K ( 2,946 sin ti?&K
0(?. 3.3. 2BMO('(FB%$''$G H('$M(>$ "FDKBBOBFB@$
<F( EFB"'BK(FB%$'(( '&BOJBH(MB EF('(M$@V %B %'(M$'(&, A@B EFB"'BK '& MBU&@ OI@V ?@BEFB=&'@'B @BA'IM. ) ?%GK( ? Z@(M '&BOJBH(MB BEF&HG@V EFB"'BK'IC DFB%&'V % BEF&H&''IJ "F$'(=$J, EB%IN$[Y(J HB?@B%&F'B?@V EFB"'BK$
.(t,t |
?&K) > t |
" |
^ |
; |
, |
(3.23) |
|
i |
|
|
|
"H& t" – >BZLL(=(&'@ HB%&F(G EB F$?EF&H&'([ .@V[H&'@$;
^; – B?@$@BA'B& ?F&H'&& >%$HF$@(A&?>B& B@>#B'&'(& MBH(, ?>BFF&>@(FB- %$''B& EB A(?#D ?@&E&'&C ?%BOBHI
"; # |
$(. |
i |
% .(t,t?&K))2 |
|
(3.24) |
|
|
. |
|||
|
|
n % ) |
|
+#G "FDKBBOBFB@$ $%@B@F$'?EBF@'IJ EF&HEF(G@(C ?F&H'&& >%$HF$@(A&- ?>B& B@>#B'&'(& ?B?@$%(@
^; # 
13,78120% 2 # 0,875.
8(?#B ?@&E&'&C ?%BOBHI EF( n = 20 ( m = 4 ?B?@$%#G&@ 16. <F( DFB%'& K'$A(MB?@( ? # 0,05 >BZLL(=(&'@ HB%&F(G EB @$O#(=& .@V[H&'@$ ?B?@$%#G&@ 2.
<FB"'BK'I& DFB%'( "FDKBBOBFB@$ $%@B@F$'?EBF@'IJ EF&HEF(G@(C '$ 2009 ". EF(%&H&'I % @$O#. 3.7.
38
|
|
|
|
|
!"#$%&" 3.7 |
|
|
<FB"'BK BO\&MB% "FDKBBOBFB@$ $%@B@F$'?EBF@'IJ EF&HEF(G@(C |
|||||
|
|
". *>$@&F('ODF"$ '$ 2009 ". |
|
|||
|
<BFGH>B%I& 'BM&F$ |
/BA&A'IC |
-'@&F%$#V'IC EFB"'BJ |
|||
<&F(BH |
E&F(BHB% |
EFB"'BK |
||||
|
|
|||||
ti?&K |
.(ti ,ti?&K ) |
.(ti ,ti?&K ) % t"^b |
.(ti ,ti?&K ) ( t""; |
|||
|
ti |
|||||
I |
21 |
0 |
8,962 |
7,212 |
10,712 |
|
II |
23 |
= |
17,828 |
16,078 |
19,578 |
|
2 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
||
III |
25 |
= |
20,802 |
19,052 |
22,552 |
|
IV |
27 |
3= |
12,156 |
10,406 |
13,906 |
|
2 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
||
.#&HB%$@V'B, ? %&FBG@'B?@V[ 0,95 "FDKBBOBFB@ '& ODH&@ M&'VN& '(U- '&C "F$'(=I ('@&F%$#$ ( '& EF&%I?(@ %&FJ'&C "F$'(=I ('@&F%$#$.
<F( LBFM(FB%$'(( EFB"'BK$ ?B=($#V'B-Z>B'BM(A&?>(J G%#&'(C EBM(MB F&@FB?E&>@(%'BC ('LBFM$=(( '&BOJBH(MB (?EB#VKB%$@V HBEB#'(@V'D[ ('- LBFM$=([, '$ B?'B%& >B@BFBC % EB#DA&''I& M&@BHBM %IF$%'(%$'(G >B#(A&?@- %&''I& B=&'>( %'B?G@?G ?BB@%&@?@%D[Y(& >BFF&>@(%I.
39