Wellford C.S., Pepper J.V. - Firearms and Violence[c] What Do We Know[q] (2005)(en)

Using the conventional standards of science, we have reviewed the data and research on firearms and have suggested ways by which these data and studies can be improved. Our readers will judge how well we have done this. We hope they will bring to that assessment the same standards of evidence that we applied in our work.

GUIDE TO THE REPORT

The chapters that follow review and analyze what is known about firearms and violence. Chapter 2 describes the major data sources for research on firearms and violence. This summary assesses the strengths and weaknesses of each system and suggests improvements necessary to make significant advances in understanding the role of firearms in violence. Chapter 3 is a summary of the data describing the extent of firearm violence, firearm ownership, the perpetrators and victims of firearm violence, and the context in which firearm violence occurs. Descriptive in form, it also identifies gaps in understanding of some of the basic facts about the role firearms play in intentional violence. Chapter 4 addresses how criminals and those who use firearms to commit suicide gain access to them. It includes an assessment of various attempts to limit access by everyone and by selected subsets of the population. Chapter 5 assesses the research on the use of firearms to defend against crime, and Chapter 6 examines the impact of laws that facilitate the carrying of weapons.

The committee paid close attention to these issues because they have been central to the recent scholarship on firearms and because they demonstrate many of the difficulties of doing research on firearms and violence. Committee member Joel Horowitz further discusses these issues in Appendix D. Committee member James Q. Wilson has written a dissent that applies to Chapter 6 only (Appendix A), and the committee has written a response (Appendix B).

Chapter 7 considers the role of firearms in suicide. While some of the issues are similar to those encountered in the study of violence, the differences are such that separate attention is required, especially for issues of motivation, firearm acquisition, and lethality. In Chapter 8 we analyze the research on the prevention of firearm violence, reviewing research on the effectiveness of primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention programs. Special attention is given to efforts to prevent gun use by youth. Chapter 9 examines the role criminal justice interventions can play in reducing firearm violence. While many of these efforts are new and have not been adequately evaluated, they are frequently thought to hold promise for immediate impact.

questions related to firearms and violence. However, in key data areas—the availability of firearms, the use of firearms, and the role of firearms in injuries and death—critical information is absent.

A PATCHWORK OF DATA SETS

To study firearms and violence, researchers and policy makers rely on a patchwork of data sources collected for more general purposes of monitoring the nation’s health and crime problems. No authoritative source of information exists to provide representative, accurate, complete, timely, and detailed data on the incidence and characteristics of firearm-related violence in the United States. Rather, there are many different sources of data that researchers use to draw inferences about the empirical questions of interest. Some information on firearms and violence is found in probability samples of well-defined populations, such as the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and the General Social Survey (GSS). Other information comes from administrative data, such as the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the trace data of the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms (BATF). Still other information comes from case studies, social experiments, and other one-time surveys conducted on special populations. Table 2-1 lists characteristics of some of the commonly used data sources.

Perhaps because these data sets serve many purposes, the strengths and limitations of each source have been generally well documented in the literature.1 This section provides a brief description of the some of the key data sources used in the research literature on firearms injury and violence and discussed in the report. This summary is not an exhaustive treatment of the data sources listed in Table 2-1, nor is it complete in its assessment of the specific data sources considered. Rather, it is intended to provide relevant background material on the key data.

Data on Violence and Crime

It is axiomatic that reliable and valid surveys on violence, offending, and victimization are critical to an understanding of violence and crime in the

1See, for example, Annest and Mercey (1998); Biderman and Lynch (1991); Maltz (1999); MacKenzie et al. (1990); Jarvis (1992); Wiersema et al. (2000); and Riedel (1999). The National Opinion Research Center (NORC) produces an ongoing series of methodological reports on the GSS, covering topics ranging from item order and wording, to nonresponse errors, and hundreds of other methodological topics. The reports are available directly from the NORC and are listed on http://www.icpsr.umich.edu:8080/GSS under “GSS Methodological Reports.”

United States and for any assessment of the quality of activities and programs aimed at reducing violence (National Research Council, 2003). Detailed data on firearm-related death, injury, and risk behaviors are limited.

Most measurement of crime in this country emanates from two major data sources. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports has collected information on crimes known to the police and arrests from local and state jurisdictions throughout the country for almost seven decades. The National Crime Victimization Survey, a general population survey designed to discover the extent, nature, and consequences of criminal victimization, has existed since the early 1970s. Other national surveys that focus on specific problems, such as delinquency, violence against women, and child abuse, also provide important data on crime, victims, and offenders. A variety of data sources have been used to assemble information on suicide and accidents, and the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) has been funded via the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to collect information on all violent deaths.

In this section, we describe four datasets used to monitor and assess firearms-related violence: the National Crime Victimization Survey, the Uniform Crime Reports, and two emerging systems, the National IncidentBased Reporting System and the National Violent Death Reporting System. The latter two are thought to hold some promise for improving the research information on firearms and violence. Many of the other data collection sources (listed in Table 2-1) have very limited information on firearms and have been assessed elsewhere (see, for example, Annest and Mercy, 1998; Institute of Medicine, 1999).

National Crime Victimization Survey

The National Crime Victimization Survey, which relies on self-reports of victimization, is an ongoing annual survey conducted by the federal government (i.e., the Census Bureau on behalf of the Department of Justice) that collects information from a representative sample of nearly 100,000 noninstitutionalized adults (age 12 and over) from approximately 50,000 households. It is widely viewed as a “gold standard” for measuring crime victimization. The largest and oldest of the crime victimization studies, it uses a rotating panel design in which respondents are interviewed several times before they are “retired” from the sample. It uses a relatively short, six-month reporting period. Respondents are instructed to report only incidents that have occurred since the previous interview and are reminded of the incidents they reported then. The initial interview is done face-to-face to ensure maximum coverage of the population; if necessary, subsequent interviews are also conducted in person. The