Wellford C.S., Pepper J.V. - Firearms and Violence[c] What Do We Know[q] (2005)(en)

fying a well-fitting model with existing data and statistical methods.7 In summary, the problems posed by high-dimensional estimation, misspecified models, and lack of knowledge of the correct set of explanatory variables seem insurmountable with observational data.

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1998 Do right-to-carry laws deter violent crime? Journal of Legal Studies 27:209-219. Bronars, S., and J.R. Lott, Jr.

1998 Criminal deterrence, geographic spillovers, and the right to carry concealed handguns. American Economic Review 88:475-479.

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2002 Divining the Impact of State Laws Permitting Citizens to Carry Concealed Handguns. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford Law School.

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1990 Applied Nonparametric Regression. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Lott, J.R.

2000 More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun-Control Laws. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

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1997 Crime, deterrence, and right-to-carry concealed handguns. Journal of Legal Studies 26(1):1-68.

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1987 Where do the homeless come from? National Review Sept. 25:32-43.

7Much current research in statistics and econometrics is directed at “dimension reduction.” This consists of imposing shape assumptions that are much weaker than those of models like 6.1 and 6.2 but strong enough to reduce the effective number of shapes that must be considered and thereby to increase estimation precision substantially. Although these techniques show considerable promise, they have not yet been developed sufficiently to be applicable to problems like estimation of the effects of right-to-carry laws.

He has conducted seminars on program evaluation in Israel, Colombia, India, Cote D’Ivoire, and Kenya. He has been a consultant to the World Health Organization on AIDS prevention research and to UNESCO and the U.S. Agency for International Development on project evaluation. He has lectured in Poland, Germany, and the United Kingdom on special problems of survey research and randomized experiments for program evaluation. His work on the design of field experiments for planning and evaluating social and educational programs has received recognition form the American Educational Research Association (Research Review Award), the Policy Studies Association, and the American Evaluation Association (Gunnar and Alva Myrdal Award). He has been a fellow at the American Statistical Association, the Center for Advance Study in the Behavioral Sciences, and the Rockefeller Foundation. He is the author of about 150 articles in research journals and author or editor of over 10 books. He has a Ph.D. in psychology/statistics from Iowa State University (1968).

ANTHONY A. BRAGA (Consultant) is senior research associate in the Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management of the Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. His research focuses on working with criminal justice agencies to develop crime prevention strategies to deal with urban problems, such as firearms violence, street-level drug markets, and violent crime hot spots. He has served as a consultant on these issues to a wide range of public agencies and private institutions, as well as numerous state and local law enforcement agencies. He was a key member of the Boston Gun Project/ Operation Ceasefire working group. He has an M.P.A. from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in criminal justice from Rutgers University.

LINDA B. COTTLER is professor of epidemiology in the Department of Psychiatry at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. Her work has been in the areas of methods of psychiatric epidemiological research, with emphasis on substance abuse and dependence (drugs and alcohol) and its co-morbidity with other disorders, and prevention research. Specifically, her contributions to the field include risk factors for substance abuse, assessment of substance use and psychiatric disorders, the public health consequences of substance use, including HIV, and peer-delivered prevention models to reduce HIV and substance abuse. She is director of a postdoctoral training program in epidemiology and biostatistics of the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), director of a preand postdoctoral training program in co-morbidity and biostatistics of the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), and a consultant to the World Health Organization’s Mental Health Division. She is on the advisory board of the National Center for Responsible Gaming, a member of NIDA-K

IRG, and a member of NIDA’s editorial board. She served on the NRC Committee on the Social and Economic Impact of Pathological Gambling. She has an M.P.H. from the Boston University School of Public Health and a Ph.D. from Washington University, St. Louis.

ROBERT D. CRUTCHFIELD is professor of sociology and department chair at the University of Washington. He has written extensively on labor markets and crime, as well as on racial and ethnic disparities in prosecution, sentencing, and imprisonment. He is a past vice-president of the American Society of Criminology and is currently on the Council of the American Sociological Association and the American Sociological Association’s Crime, Law, and Deviance Section. He served on the editorial board for the National Institute of Justice’s CJ2000 project. He has been a deputy editor of Criminology and has served on the editorial board of the journal Social Problems. He is currently on the editorial boards of

Crime and Justice and Crime and Justice Research. He served on the NRC’s Ford Foundation minority predoctoral review panel on anthropology and sociology. He has M.A. (1976) and Ph.D. (1980) degrees in sociology fromVanderbilt University.

JOEL L. HOROWITZ is the Charles E. and Emma H. Morrison professor of economics at Northwestern University. He specializes in econometric theory, semiparametric estimation, bootstrap methods, discrete choice analysis, and inference with missing and incomplete data. He is currently working on projects involving adaptive testing, estimation of additive models with unknown links, bootstrap methods for nonsmooth models, and bandwidth selection in semiparametric estimation. He is co-editor of Econometrica and a member of the Econometric Society, the American

Economic Association, the American Statistical Association, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the Transportation Research Board. He has served on several NRC ad hoc committees, including the Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs, and is currently a member of the Committee on National Statistics. He has a Ph.D. from Cornell University (1967).

ROBERT L. JOHNSON is professor of pediatrics and clinical psychiatry and director of Adolescent and Young Adult Medicine at the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, New Jersey Medical School. His research focuses on adolescent physical and mental health, adolescent HIV, adolescent violence, adolescent fatherhood and risk prevention/reduction programs with specific emphasis on substance and alcohol abuse, sexuality and sexual dysfunction, male sexual abuse, suicide, and AIDS. He currently serves on the National Institute of Mental Health’s national advisory council, the board of

the Violence Institute of New Jersey, and the pediatric residency review committee of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education. He has previously been a member of the advisory committee on adolescent health of the Office of Technology Assessment, chair of the Board of Advocates for Youth, and president of the New Jersey State Board of Medical Examiners. He also serves on several Institute of Medicine (IOM) committees, including the Board on Health Care Services, and was a member of the Committee on Unintended Pregnancy. He has an M.D. from the New Jersey Medical School, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey (1972).

STEVEN D. LEVITT is professor of economics at the University of Chicago. He is a research fellow at the American Bar Foundation, a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and editor of the Journal of Political Economy. He has studied various aspects of crime and criminality, including the impact of police and prisons on crime, the economics of gangs, the juvenile justice system, and the link between legalized abortion and crime. He has a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1994).

TERRIE E. MOFFITT is professor of psychology at the University of Wisconsin at Madison and professor of social behavior and development at the Institute of Psychiatry in the University of London. She researches the developmental interplay between nature and nurture in the genesis of antisocial behavior. She is principal investigator of the Environmental-Risk Study of the Medical Research Council and is associate director of the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit in New Zealand. She is a fellow of the United Kingdom’s Academy of Medical Sciences and a recipient of the American Psychological Association’s distinguished scientific award for early career contribution to psychology in the area of psychopathology. She has a Ph.D. in clinical psychology from the University of Southern California (1984).

SUSAN A. MURPHY is an associate professor of statistics and senior associate research scientist in the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. Her present research interests concern causal inference and sequential decisions, sometimes called dynamic or adaptive or tailored treatment regimes. Other interests include profile and parametric likelihood models and the development of methodology for the area of drug prevention research—in particular the use of event history analysis. In 2000, she was elected a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. She has been a member of the NRC’s Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel. She has a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (1989).

KAREN E. NORBERG is assistant professor of psychiatry at Boston University and visiting research associate at the Center for Health Policy at Washington University in St. Louis. Her current research interests include economic and game theory models of parent-child interaction, social and economic factors affecting emotional and physical health of low income youth, adolescent suicide and self-injury, and social contagion. She is the principal investigator of a NIMH project to study social and economic factors in an adolescent suicide cluster. She has an M.D. from Harvard University (1978).

JOHN V. PEPPER (Study Director) is associate professor of economics at the University of Virginia. His current work reflects his wide range of interests in social program evaluation, applied econometrics, and public economics. He is an author of numerous published papers, conference presentations, and edited books. At the National Research Council, he has made important contributions to the work of panels of the Committee on Law and Justice, including reports on measurement problems in criminal justice research, policy on illegal drugs, and assessment of two cost-effec- tiveness studies on cocaine control policy. He has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin.

CAROL V. PETRIE is staff director of the Committee on Law and Justice at the National Research Council, a position she has held since 1997. Prior to her work there, she was the director of planning and management at the National Institute of Justice, responsible for policy development and administration. In 1994, she served as the acting director of the National Institute of Justice during the transition between the Bush and Clinton administrations. Throughout a 30-year career, she has worked in the area of criminal justice research, statistics, and public policy, serving as a project officer and in administration at the National Institute of Justice and at the Bureau of Justice Statistics. She has conducted research on violence, and managed numerous research projects on the development of criminal behavior, policy on illegal drugs, domestic violence, child abuse and neglect, transnational crime, and improving the operations of the criminal justice system. She has a B.S. in education from Kent State University.

PETER REUTER is professor in the School of Public Affairs and in the Department of Criminology at the University of Maryland. In July 1999 he became editor of the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. He is currently also senior economist at RAND. He founded and directed RAND’s Drug Policy Research Center from 1989 to 1993. Since 1985 most of his research has dealt with alternative approaches to controlling drug problems, both in the United States and in western Europe. He has been a

member of the NRC’s Committee on Law and Justice and the IOM’s Committee on the Federal Regulation of Methadone and its Panel on Assessing the Scientific Base for Reducing Tobacco-Related Harm. He testifies frequently before Congress and has addressed senior policy audiences in many countries, including Australia, Chile, Colombia and Great Britain. He has served as a consultant to numerous organizations in this country and abroad. He has a Ph.D. in economics from Yale.

RICHARD ROSENFELD is professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Missouri, St. Louis. His research areas are violence and social organization, crime statistics, and crime control policy. He has written extensively on the social sources of criminal violence, youth homicide, and violent crime trends. His current research investigates the role of networks in sustaining violence and the impact of incarceration on homicide rates. He is executive counselor of the American Society of Criminology. In 1994, he received the Chancellor’s Award for Excellence in Teaching from the University of Missouri, St. Louis. He has a Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Oregon (1984).

JOEL WALDFOGEL is a business and public policy faculty member at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a faculty research fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Prior to arriving at Wharton in 1997, he served on the faculty of the Yale University Economics Department. His research interests span law and economics and industrial organization. Within law and economics, he has conducted research on criminal sentencing, labor markets for ex-offenders, civil litigation, and the measurement of discrimination. Within industrial economics, he has conducted empirical studies of price advertising, media markets and minorities, and the operation of differentiated product markets. He has a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University (1990).

JAMES Q. WILSON is the James A. Collins professor of management and public policy (emeritus) at the University of California, Los Angeles. He is also the Ronald Reagan professor of public policy at Pepperdine University. Previously, he was a professor of government at Harvard University. He is the author or co-author of 14 books, has edited or contributed to books on urban problems, government regulation of business, and the prevention of delinquency among children, and has published many articles. He has served on several NRC committees, including the Committee on Law and Justice, the Panel on Research on Criminal Careers, and the Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs. He has a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago (1959).

CHRISTOPHER WINSHIP is professor of sociology at Harvard University. He was previously at Northwestern University as director of the Program in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, and as chair of the Department of Sociology. He was a founding member of Northwestern’s Department of Statistics and held a courtesy appointment in economics. He also served as director of the Economics Research Center at the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. He is currently doing research on several topics: the Ten Point Coalition, a group of black ministers who are working with the Boston police to reduce youth violence; statistical models for causal analysis; the effects of education on mental ability; causes of the racial difference in performance in elite colleges and universities; and changes in the racial differential in imprisonment rates over the past 60 years. He is currently a member of the NRC-IOM’s Committee on Adolescent Health and Development. He has a Ph.D. in sociology from Harvard University (1977).