СТАТИСТИКА 1 / Международное энергетическое агентство www.IEA.org / Публикации разные / supply glossary 1987-2002

TABLE 24

Regional OECD Gasoil/Diesel Imports by Source¹ 1987-2002

(million barrels per day)

1Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes. Data differs from that published in the "Oil Information" Annual.

2Total figure excludes intra-regional trade.

TABLE 25

Regional OECD Jet and Kerosene Imports by Source¹ 1987-2002

(million barrels per day)

1Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes. Data differs from that published in the "Oil Information" Annual.

2Total figure excludes intra-regional trade.

TABLE 26

Regional OECD Residual Fuel Oil Imports by Source¹ 1987-2002

(million barrels per day)

1Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes. Data differs from that published in the "Oil Information" Annual.

2Total figure excludes intra-regional trade.

A USERS’ GUIDE TO THE IEA OIL MARKET REPORT

GENERAL

Data Sources

This user’s guide to the monthly Oil Market Report is divided into a general section followed by five sections including demand, supply, trade, OECD Stocks, and oil prices and refinery activity. Each of the six sections includes a glossary that defines terms commonly used in the relevant part of the Report. A master index of terms indicating the section in which each term is defined is included at the back of this guide.

Historical OECD demand, supply, stock and trade data are submitted via the Monthly Oil Statistics (MOS) questionnaire, returned electronically to the IEA by the 30 OECD Member countries, consisting of the 26 Member countries of the IEA and Iceland, Poland, Mexico and the Slovak Republic. MOS submissions provide a complete mass balance for each product including demand, production, imports, exports, stock change and statistical differences. Submissions are made during the seven-to-eight-week period following the month to which the figures relate (i.e. three months before the month of the date of the Report) and may include revisions to earlier months. Data are submitted in metric tonnes (and also in volume by the United States) and are converted into barrels using the conversion factors listed on page 72. Where necessary, production, demand and trade are estimated while stock data are assumed unchanged from the previous month’s levels. For the preceding month that is covered by MOS, preliminary estimates for inland deliveries to the nine largest oil consumers in the OECD are made available by various national organisations. Each OECD producing country submits oil production data to the MOS but these aggregate data are supplemented by information on individual fields provided by governments, oil companies and consultancies. Preliminary stock data are publicly available for Canada, the EU plus Norway, Japan, Korea, Mexico and the US, while preliminary Euroilstock data are used to calculate the remaining European Union (EU) countries’ stock positions.

There is no formal submission system for non-OECD data. Information is gathered from a variety of government, oil-company, consultancy and journalistic sources. The timeliness and degree of detail is highly variable. Relatively current information is available for roughly 60% of non-OECD demand, in some cases as quickly as for OECD data, but for others, up to six months or longer. For more than 40% of non-OECD demand, figures only become available about 20 months after the end of the year in question. When up-to-date data are not available, growth rates are estimated, as are all projections. Non-OECD supply data are provided by an extensive range of government, oil-company and consultancy sources. The timeliness of the data varies from preliminary estimates for the month immediately prior to the Report for some countries to a 12-month delay for others.

With substantial time lags involved in obtaining certain supply and demand data, it is not surprising that the balances achieved are imprecise. Where discrepancies exist, no attempt is made to force an artificial balance by making arbitrary adjustments to the best estimates of demand and supply. Instead, the discrepancy appears in the ‘miscellaneous-to-balance’ item in Table 1 of the Report. This item combines changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas and the balancing item required due to errors in any estimate of demand, supply and stock changes included in the balances. Thus, for example, a persistently high positive miscellaneous-to-balance value indicates that estimates of global demand are too low, that global supply is too high, that there has been a significant increase in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas, that the OECD stockbuild is too low, or some combination of these factors.

IEA Member countries submit monthly average Cost Insurance Freight (CIF) crude import prices on a monthly basis. Data are averaged for the total number of IEA Member countries using the quantity of crude imports for individual countries by weight. The spot crude and product price assessments are based on daily Platt’s prices, converted where appropriate to US dollars per barrel according to the Platt’s specification of products (© 2003 Platt’s, a division of McGraw-Hill Inc.) As of the Report

dated 11 May 2001, the IEA changed the source of its Platt’s price data. As a result, historical price data may differ slightly from those shown in previous Annual Statistical Supplements.

Graphs that complement the text of the Report show daily price data, while tables found in the text (as well as Table 8 in the statistical section) show arithmetic averages by weeks, months, quarters and years.

Approach to Projecting Oil Supply and Demand

The aim of projecting future demand and supply is to produce estimates of ‘most likely’ (modal values) levels under normal conditions. The methodology and the main factors used in projecting supply and demand are briefly discussed in the relevant sections below. Our demand and supply forecasts are compared with those of oil companies, consultancies and other organisations. Projections are made for all the elements in Table 1 of the Report with the exception of OPEC crude production and global stock change. Instead, a ‘call on OPEC crude plus stock change’ is calculated by subtracting non-OPEC supply plus OPEC NGLs from global demand.

Demand Revisions: Oil demand assessments are reviewed and updated on an ongoing basis. This is true of forecasts as well as of estimates of past demand. Procedures for projecting future demand are detailed below. Historical OECD demand estimates are revised as warranted by re-submissions of monthly demand data by Member countries, especially for recent months. Monthly statistics are also adjusted after Member countries publish their annual demand data, which by definition come with a lag but offer greater detail and are more reliable than monthly estimates.

For non-OECD demand, revisions to historical assessments typically follow the release of new information or corrections to previously published data by the various reporting sources used in compiling the Report. Historical assessments are also revised annually to reflect the findings of the IEA’s Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries, most commonly referred to as the Green Book. This annual publication represents the result of extensive research carried out by the Agency’s Energy Statistics Division, in close consultation with the governments of roughly 70 non-OECD countries and international organisations. Green Book reappraisals typically entail substantial adjustments to past estimates of total non-OECD oil demand for a period of several years up to two years prior to publication, with the biggest changes affecting the most recent years.

Most Green Book changes are adopted and carried forward to later years in the Report’s Annual Statistical Supplement and the figures in the present Supplement are generally in line with those that will be released shortly in the 2001 Green Book. However, there are differences. Those reflect the fact that, unlike the Green Book, the Supplement attempts to account not only for oil products delivered through normal channels, but also for that part of the domestic trade that by definition tends to fall outside the scope of official statistics. This includes smuggled oil, oil traded or exchanged in the “black market”, direct burn, pipeline fill, refinery fuel consumption and, in the case of China, the output of “unofficial” refineries, theoretically set for mothballing or dismantling, but sometimes still in operation.

Schedule for Development of the Report

MOS submissions are received electronically from OECD Member countries at the end of each month and include data for two months earlier, as well as any revisions made to previous months’ data submissions. MOS data are verified and aggregated with non-OECD information and then analysed, by experts to make a comprehensive report that is released sometime during the first half of the month. The Report is available in two formats: electronic distribution involving the dispatch of PDF files via e-mail, and print distribution via post and international courier services. A fax service (comprising extracts only) of the Report is also available but will eventually be supplemented by more timely and efficient PDF distribution. The Monthly Oil Data Service (MODS) which contains much of the historical data on which the Report is based, is available on diskette and on the Internet, and includes comprehensive actual and projected demand and supply data, and actual stock and refinery throughput data.

Rounding

Demand and supply databases are generally in million barrels per day (mb/d) and rounded to two, three or more decimal places. However, Table 1 and certain other tables included in the text of the Report are reported to one decimal place. This is done primarily to avoid giving a false sense of accuracy and having to make a plethora of minor changes, for example in Table 1A. All totals are calculated before rounding, which can lead to numbers expressed to one decimal place appearing not to add up. For example, in the very unlikely event that the second decimal place for demand for each non-OECD region shown in Table 1 were 4, the total non-OECD demand would be 0.3 mb/d higher than the straight addition of the numbers shown to one decimal place.

Comparisons with Previous Time Periods

Since oil demand is seasonal, it is normally most helpful to compare demand with the corresponding time period of the previous year. One can assume that this convention is always adopted unless specifically stated otherwise. In contrast to oil demand, oil production is not generally seasonal (with the exception of seasonality resulting from the concentration of outages for maintenance in the summer in a few locations such as the North Sea). In general, the Report focuses on changes in production compared with the last month or quarter, such as new fields coming onstream or production recovery from an unexpected outage. For this reason, in the Supply section of the Report, changes in production are normally quoted in relation to the previous month or quarter as appropriate. This can be assumed to be the case except where specifically stated. Finally, product stocks normally follow a contraseasonal pattern to product demand and, as in the case of demand, absolute inventory levels are normally compared to those at the same time of year in previous years. However, as the balancing factor in supply and demand, month-on-month changes are also important. Thus, the best way to explain monthly stock developments is to discuss changes in demand, production, imports and exports compared to the previous month and this is the procedure followed in the Regional Stock Developments section of the Report.

In order to make meaningful comparisons between current stock levels and those in earlier years, changes in classifications of stocks which occurred during the time period covered by the Report (notably in Germany, Japan, Spain and Switzerland) are assumed to have been effective throughout the whole period. Additionally, for the new OECD Member countries historical stocks were estimated to be the same as in the earliest period for which data become available.

DEMAND

INTRODUCTION

Adjustments to MOS and Non-OECD Data

Member governments submit annual oil demand data about six months after the end of the year. Following the receipt of this information, the differences between these annual data and the aggregate of the twelve corresponding MOS data are used to adjust the monthly data used in the Report for the relevant year and the same adjustments are used to correct MOS data relating to the next year. Annual non-OECD data are obtained from a wide range of sources including governments, industry and international organisations such as the United Nations, ASEAN, OLADE, the OPEC Secretariat and the OAPEC. Monthly and quarterly non-OECD data are adjusted using the same procedure as for the OECD once the annual data become available. However, final annual data are generally only available for the year, two years before the current year and therefore, adjustments have to be made for both the current year and the year before, as well as for the forecast year. The adjustments also tend to be larger in percentage terms and in some cases need to include estimates of bunker fuel demand or refinery fuel use which were missing from the original data.

Preliminary OECD Data

Preliminary demand data for the month after the latest MOS submission (i.e. two months before the month on the Report) are collected for the nine largest oil-consuming countries. Preliminary data typically are limited to inland deliveries and exclude refinery fuel and bunkers. Canadian LPG delivery data also exclude petrochemicals feedstock use. These unadjusted data are shown in the preliminary inland delivery table in the Demand section of the Report. The rate of growth in inland deliveries provides guidance for the rate of growth in total deliveries (including bunkers and refinery fuel). The preliminary data are often subject to significant revision and so are not always used. The data sources are: US: Energy Information Administration (Weekly Petroleum Status Report); Japan: METI; France: Comité Professionnel du Pétrole (Bulletin Mensuel); Germany: Minerölwirtschaftsverband e.V. (MWV); UK: Petroleum Industry Association (UKPIA); Italy: Ministry of Industry (Staffetta Quotidiana); Canada: Statistics Canada; Korea: KNOC; Mexico: Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX).

Procedures for Projecting Demand

The key parameters affecting annual growth in demand are economic growth, changes in oil’s share of the energy mix, changes in efficiency of oil use, oil prices (both in absolute terms and relative to competing fuels) and the weather. These factors are explicitly taken into account in the IEA’s longterm oil demand model, which provides a background for annual forecasts in the Report. However, in both projecting and attempting to explain changes in demand, particularly monthly and quarterly demand, there are several other factors which need to be considered and these are discussed briefly below.

Twice a year, the OECD produces half-year projections of real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted) for the next 18-24 months for each OECD country. Where significant changes are deemed likely, these are taken into account in preparing the next Report. Forecasts of non-OECD economic growth are taken from a number of sources, including the OECD and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF data are available on a regional basis, expressed on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis and are updated every six months. Use of oil products for space heating or cooling and (through the mechanism of changes in electricity demand) power generation are clearly affected by variations in temperature from ‘normal’. Forecasts are generally based on the assumption of normal weather and thus, in projecting growth rates, deviations from normal in the previous year are taken into account.

Oil use is also affected by variations in other climatic conditions. Snow storms tend to reduce road traffic. Low rainfall (and hence low reservoir levels) can reduce hydro output and low river levels can affect nuclear output, both of which can lead to increased oil use for power generation. Conversely, high rainfall and high reservoir levels can curb oil use for power generation.

Changes in the price differential between oil and competing fuels can lead to oil demand gains or losses in both the power generation and industrial sectors, with oil losses most likely when competing fuels such as coal and natural gas are available on a low-priced spot or interruptible basis. Increases in end-user taxes can dampen demand growth and, more significantly, can affect the timing of purchases. Thus, if a tax is announced in advance to become effective at the beginning of a month, end-consumers or wholesalers will tend to increase purchases the month before to increase stock levels with a corresponding decrease in the next month. On occasion, consumers may anticipate the timing and size of an unannounced tax increase. Thus, to assist in assessing the potential effect on demand growth of a tax change, it is desirable to know at what time of the month it occurred, whether it was announced in advance and, for annual increases, its size in relation to that of the previous year.

A second factor which can affect the timing of the purchases and hence the month-by-month change in demand is perceptions of future oil prices. Since oil is bought in local currency but traded internationally in US dollars, changes in the exchange rates as well as in cargo market prices can affect demand. If the market is in backwardation there will be a tendency to defer purchases and draw stocks while the reverse is true if the market is in a contango. The timing of purchases by major electricity generating companies can significantly affect the pattern of short-term sales while the timing of the German consumer seasonal stock build of heating oil (normally around 40 mb) can also have a substantial influence on the summer deliveries pattern. These consumer stocks can be affected significantly by tax changes.

Two other factors which can affect the monthly pattern of sales are the number of working days in the month and a strike by oil delivery workers. Strikes by oil-consuming companies can clearly lead to a permanent or temporary reduction in deliveries.

DEMAND GLOSSARY

Apparent Demand. Estimation of domestic demand derived by subtracting net exports from domestic production (also referred to as the ‘top-down’ method), as opposed to counting barrels whose actual delivery has been reported and documented (the ‘bottom up’ approach).

Consumption is the use of oil.

Cooling Degree-Days are the number of degrees per day that the daily average temperature is above a given temperature. This temperature is the point above which the consumer is assumed to use energy for space cooling. During the space-cooling season, warmer-than-normal temperatures tend to lead to increased electricity use, with increased demand for electricity often met by incremental use of oil products.

Deliveries refer to the supply of oil products from primary stocks to wholesalers and retailers or direct to end-users.

Demand is total inland deliveries plus refinery fuels and bunkers minus backflows from the chemicals sector. It is thus equivalent to oil consumption plus any secondary and tertiary stock increases.

Dieselisation is an increase in the proportion of diesel-fuelled cars to gasoline-fuelled cars. As diesel-fuelled cars are generally more energy efficient than those fuelled by gasoline, this change in the car population contributes to lower transport fuel demand (in volume terms) than would otherwise occur.

Economic Growth in this Report generally refers to the increase in real, seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Heating Degree-Days are the number of degrees per day that the daily average temperature is below a given temperature with the daily average temperature defined as the mean of the maximum and minimum temperatures for a 24-hour period. The given temperature is the point below which the consumer is assumed to use fuels for space heating and varies from country to country.

Working Days. The number of working days in a month is the total number of days less the number of weekend days and national holidays. The change in total working days can explain part of the year-on-year change in deliveries, particularly for transport fuels. In some countries, such as France, national holidays are fixed on a particular date rather than a day of the week and the holiday is lost if it occurs at the weekend (or on Sundays in Japan). In other countries such as the US or UK, national holidays are fixed to a particular day in the month. National holidays at Easter can occur in March or April, significantly affecting the annual change in total working days in these months.