Eviews5 / EViews5 / Example Files / x12 / example4

9 February 1988

Example 4: Three series that are unsuitable for seasonal adjustment
(m1gold.spc, m2airc.spc, and x1gold.spc), as various
diagnostics in the output show. Look at the M and Q
statistics and the sliding span diagnostics.

Suggested graphs: overlay graph of the original and
seasonally adjusted series, seasonal factors by month,
and year on year graphs.

Two of the spec files are listed below.



# Example 4: m1gold.spc

# This series, US Imports of Gold, has no stable seasonality. X-12-ARIMA
# rejects adjustment of such a series.

series {period=12
title=' '
file='m1gold.ori'
name='m1gold'
start=1979.01
print=(brief)
span=(1980.01,)
}
transform {function=log}
arima {model=(0 1 1)}
check { }
estimate {print=(brief)}
outlier {types=all}
x11 {mode=mult
seasonalma=(s3x5)
print=(brief +d8 +d9 +d13)
}
slidingspans{outlier=keep
fixmdl=yes
}
forecast {maxlead=24
}



# Example 4: x1gold.spc

# This series, US Exports of Gold, has no stable seasonality. X-12-ARIMA
# rejects adjustment of such a series.

series {period=12
title='X-12-ARIMA run for x1gold'
file='x1gold.ori'
name='x1gold'
start=1979.01
print=(brief)
span=(1982.01,)
}
transform {function=log}
regression {variables=(td1coef ao1986.3 ao1986.5 ao1986.6 ao1986.7)
}
arima {model=(0 1 1)(0 1 1)}
check {print=all}
outlier {print=brief}
x11 {mode=mult
seasonalma=(s3x9)
print=(brief +d8 +d9 +d13)
}
slidingspans{outlier=keep
fixmdl=yes
}
forecast {maxlead=24
}