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Управление инновационными проектами и их коммерциализация. Учебное пособие

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t 3 <A69EF<J<<, E89?4AAO9 6 t -@ C9D<B89, t 3 CBDS8>B6O= AB@9D C9D<B84 CDB9>F4, t=1,T 3 8?<F9?PABEFP CDB9>F4,

&D 3 D4EK9FAO= C9D<B8 (7B8); q 3 EF46>4 8<E>BAF<DB64A<S.

T

t

T

Дt

T

Pt

 

 

'ДД

 

(

 

 

 

)

(2)

(1 q)T@

(1 q)T@

(1 q)T@

t 1

t 1

t 1

 

E?< + >0, FB CDB9>F E?98G9F CD<ASFP. E?< + < 0, FB CDB9>F E?98G9F BF69D7AGFP.

D<F9D<= 59;G5OFBKABEF< CDB9>F4: 9E?< + >0

2. %DB> B>GC49@BEF< CDB9>F4 (CB HBD@G?9 3), >BFBDO= CB>4;O649F ;4

>4>B= EDB> B>GCSFES <A69EF<J<< 6 <AAB64J<BAAO= CDB9>F < GK<FO649F C9D6BA4K4?PAO9 >4C<F4?PAO9 6?B:9A<S.

" К (t )

ДД(t )

(3)

ДД(t ) ДД(t )

 

 

789 (t3) 3 CBE?98A<= C9D<B8 D94?<;4J<< CDB9>F4, CD< >BFBDB@ D4;-

ABEFP A4>BC?9AAB7B 8<E>BAF<DB64AAB7B 8BIB84 < 8<E>BAF<DB64AAOI D4EIB8B6 CD<A<@49F BFD<J4F9?PAB9 ;A4K9A<9;

! (t3) 3 CBE?98ASS BFD<J4F9?PA4S D4;ABEFP A4>BC?9AAB7B 8<E>BA-

F<DB64AAB7B 8BIB84 < 8<E>BAF<DB64AAB7B D4EIB84;

! (t+) 3 C9D64S CB?B:<F9?PA4S D4;ABEFP A4>BC?9AAB7B 8<E>BAF<- DB64AAB7B 8BIB84 < 8<E>BAF<DB64AAB7B D4EIB84.

77

D<F9D<= 59;G5OFBKABEF< CDB9>F4: 9E?< &B>>1/2*& 8?<F9?PABEF< CDB9>F4.

#D9:89 6E97B, A9B5IB8<@B BF@9F<FP, KFB 6 BJ9A>9 EDB> B>GC49@BEF< @B:9F <ECB?P;B64FPES 86BS>B:

CDB9>F CD<A<@49FES, 9E?< B>GC49@BEFP <@99F @9EFB;

CDB9>F CD<A<@49FES FB?P>B 6 FB@ E?GK49, 9E?< EDB> B>GC49@BEF< A9 CD96OL49F GEF4AB6?9AAB7B 6 >B@C4A<< A9>BFBDB7B ?<@<F4.

3. A89>E 8BIB8ABEF< (CB HBD@G?9 4), >BFBDO= BCD989?S9FES >4>

BFABL9A<9 EG@@4DAB7B 8<E>BAF<DB64AAB7B 8BIB84 > EG@@4DAO@ 8<E>BA- F<DB64AAO@ ;4FD4F4@:

 

Д

(4)

 

 

# 3 CD<6989AAO= 8BIB8;

% 3 EG@@4DAO9 8<E>BAF<DB64AAO9 <A69EF<J<<. E?< $ >1, FB CDB9>F E?98G9F CD<ASFP.

E?< $ < 1, FB CDB9>F E?98G9F BF69D7AGFP.

#D< $ =1 CDB9>F A9 S6?S9FES A< CD<5O?PAO@, A< G5OFBKAO@. D<F9D<= 59;G5OFBKABEF< CDB9>F4: 9E?< $>1

4. AGFD9AASS ABD@4 8BIB8ABEF< (CB HBD@G?9 5), >BFBD4S BCD989?S9FES

>4> ;A4K9A<9 >BQHH<J<9AF4 8<E>BAF<DB64A<S i, CD< >BFBDB@ + D469A AG?R.

В Д q( )

'ДДq( )

ô(q( ) q( ))

(5)

'ДДq( ) 'ДДq( )

q(+) 3 @4>E<@4?PAB9 ;A4K9A<9 8<E>BAF4, CD< >BFBDB@ + <0;

q(-) 3 @<A<@4?PAB9 ;A4K9A<9 8<E>BAF4, CD< >BFBDB@ + >0;

+ q(-), + q(+) 3 EBBF69FEF69AAB ;A4K9A<S + CD< 8<E>BAF4I, D46AOI q(-) < q(+).

D<F9D<= 59;G5OFBKABEF< CDB9>F4: 9E?< ! >q.

5. "CD989?<FP GEFB=K<6BEFP ( ) > <;@9A9A<R GDB6AS <AH?SJ<< (CB

HBD@G?9 6). #B8 GEFB=K<6BEFPR CBA<@49FES CD989?PAB9 G69?<K9A<9 <A- H?SJ<<, CD< >BFBDB@ EBID4AS9FES Q>BAB@<K9E>4S J9?9EBB5D4;ABEFP D94?<- ;4J<< CDB9>F4, FB 9EFP + ó 0. 1F4 69?<K<A4 @B:9F 5OFP D4EEK<F4A4 E?9- 8GRM<@ B5D4;B@:

= ! 3 q

(6)

789 3 GEFB=K<6BEFP CDB9>F4 > <;@9A9A<R GDB6AS <AH?SJ<<, %;

! 3 6AGFD9AASS ABD@4 8BIB8ABEF< CDB9>F4, %; q 3 EF46>4 8<E>BAF<DB64A<S, %.

6. ;@9D<FP GEFB=K<6BEFP CDB9>F4 > <;@9A9A<R B5N9@4 D94?<;4J<<

@4F9D<4?4 (CB HBD@G?9 7):

 

= Q@ Q5 / C

(7)

789 QD 3 B5N9@ D94?<;4J<<;

Q5G 3 B5N9@ 59;G5OFBKAB7B CDB<;6B8EF64 AB6B7B @4F9D<4?4.

78

7. "CD989?<FP KG6EF6<F9?PABEFP CDB9>F4 > <;@9A9A<R GDB6AS

<AH?SJ<< < B5N9@4 D94?<;4J<< (CB HBD@G?9

8) >4> BFABE<F9?PAB9 BF-

>?BA9A<9 (%+):

 

 

%+ =

 

 

X X

 

 

*100

,

(8)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

X

 

 

789 ) 3 <EIB8AB9 ;A4K9A<9 H4>FBDBB5D4;GRM97B CB>4;4F9?S;

I 3 ;A4K9A<9 H4>FBDBB5D4;GRM97B CB>4;4F9?S, BCD989?SRM97B GDB69AP GEFB=K<6BEF< CDB9>F4.

%89?4FP 6O6B8O.

1.3. "J9A>4 D<E>4 <AAB64J<BAAB7B CDB9>F4

!4 FD9FP9@ QF4C9 A9B5IB8<@B J9A<FP D<E>< 6 <AAB64J<BAAB@ CDB9>- F9 E CB;<J<< D94?<;4J<< J9?9= <AAB64J<BAAB7B CDB9>F4.

$<E> S6?S9FES E?98EF6<9@ 6B;@B:AB7B A4EFGC?9A<S >4>B7B-?<5B A9-

5?47BCD<SFAB7B <?< 5?47BCD<SFAB7B EB5OF<S, >BFBDO9 6 E6BR BK9D98P CDBS6?SRFES <;-;4 A9BCD989?9AABEF<.

D45BF9 D9>B@9A8G9FES BCD989?<FP 69DBSFABEFP CDBEFOI D<E>B6 Q>EC9DFB@ (B5GK4RM<@ES) E <ECB?P;B64A<9@ L45?BA4 BJ9AB> 69DBSFABEF9=, CD98EF46?9AAB7B 6 F45?<J9 6 < CBEFDB9AAB7B CB 86G@ H4>FBD4@:

-<AHBD@4J<< B E69DL9A<< EB5OF<= 6 CDBL?B@;

-I4D4>F9D9 84AAOI B 6B;@B:ABEF< <I CBS6?9A<S 6 5G8GM9@.

"J9A>< 69DBSFABEF< A4EFGC?9A<S D<E>4

&45?<J4 6

 

 

 

 

 

 

4AAO9 B 6B;@B:ABEF<

#BS6?9A<9 EB5OF<S 6 CDBL?B@

CBS6?9A<S EB5OF<S 6 5G8GM9@

!9 CBS6?S?BEP

1C<;B8<K9E><

 

+4EFB

"FEGFEF6GRF

0,1

0,2

 

0,3

BE69AAO9

0,4

0,5

 

0,6

 

 

 

 

 

#DS@O9

0,7

0,8

 

0,9

"CD989?<FP ;A4K<@BEFP <?< 69E >4:8B7B CDBEFB7B D<E>4, >BFBDO= I4D4>F9D<;G9FES 97B 6>?48B@ 6 B5MGR 69?<K<AG CBF9DP CB 84AAB@G B5N- 9>FG 6?<SA<S CB HBD@G?9 9 < 84AAO@ F45?<JO 7:

Vij =

Qij

,

(9)

 

Qi

789 Qij 3 CBF9D< CB B5N9>FG i CD< D94?<;4J<< D<E>4 j. Qi 3 EG@@4DA4S 69?<K<A4 CBF9DP CB B5N9>FG i.

79

 

"J9A>4 D<E>B6 CDB9>F4

 

&45?<J4 7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

!4<@9AB64A<9 D<E>B6

"J9A>4

"5N9@ CBF9DP,

A4K<@BEFP

%?B:AO=

#DBEFB=

Q>EC9DF4

FOE. DG5.

D<E>B6

1. &9IA<K9E><=

69DBSFABEFP A98BEF<:9A<S ;4-

 

 

 

D<E>

C?4A<DB64AAOI F9IA<K9E><I

 

365

 

 

C4D4@9FDB6 6 IB89 D4;D45BFB>

 

 

 

 

69DBSFABEFP 6B;A<>AB69A<S

 

 

 

 

CD< <ECB?P;B64A<< AB6B669-

 

 

 

 

89A<= CB5BKAOI <?< BFEDB-

 

120

 

 

K9AAOI CB 6D9@9A< CBS6?9-

 

 

 

 

A<S CDB5?9@

 

 

 

 

FB7B CBF9DP, FOE. DG5.

-

 

1

2. B@@9DK9E><=

A9CD46<?PAO= CDB7AB; >BAN-

 

 

 

D<E>

RA>FGDO A4 6E9I <?< BF89?P-

 

230

 

 

AOI DOA>4I >4C<F4?PAOI ;4-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

>GCB> < EA45:9A<S

 

 

 

 

D<E> ;4>?RK9A<S >BAFD4>FB6

 

 

 

 

A4 B5N9@O F9>GM97B EA45:9-

 

 

 

 

A<S CDB<;6B8EF64 (6 FB@ K<E?9

 

110

 

 

A4 ;A4K<F9?PAO9 EDB>< 6C9-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

D98), A9 B59EC9K9AAO9 E5OFB@

 

 

 

 

7BFB6B= CDB8G>J<<

 

 

 

 

FB7B CBF9DP, FOE. DG5.

-

 

1

"CD989?<FP QHH9>F<6ABEFP CDB9>F4 E GK9FB@ GDB6AS D<E>4, FB 9EFP E GK9FB@ 6B;89=EF6<S E?B:AOI D<E>B6 A4 <EIB8AO9 EBEF46?SRM<9 ABD@O CD<5O?<.

9DBSFAO= GDB69AP CD<5O?< BCD989?<FES E GK9FB@ 6B;89=EF6<S D<E- >B6 2 CB HBD@G?9 10:

#D(69D) = #D * (1 - 2)

(10)

9DBSFAO= B5N9@ >4C<F4?B6?B:9A<= <AAB64J<BAAB7B CDB9>F4 BCD989?<FES E GK9FB@ 6B;89=EF6<S D<E>4 1 CB HBD@G?9 11:

<A (69D) = <A * (1 + 1)

(11)

789 <A 3 <A69EF<J<< 6 CDB9>F.

 

M

 

i = VIJ * PIJ ,

(12)

J 1

789 i 3 >BQHH<J<9AF EBBF69FEF6GRM97B E?B:AB7B D<E>4 (HBD@G?4 12), Vij 3 ;A4K<@BEFP j 3 7B CDBEFB7B D<E>4 CB i3 @G B5N9>FG,

Pij 3 Q>EC9DFA4S BJ9A>4 69DBSFABEF< A4EFGC?9A<S I 3 CDBEFB7B D<E>4 CB i3@G B5N9>FG.

j 3 [1,m] CDBEFO9 D<E><.

%B6B>GCAB9 6?<SA<9 D<E>B6 A4 QHH9>F<6ABEFP CDB9>F4 @B:AB GK9EFP E CB@BMPR >BQHH<J<9AF4 GEC9I4 CDB9>F4 (HBD@G?4 13), >BFBDO= <@99F 6<8:

80

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