- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Table of contents
- •List of figures
- •List of tables
- •List of boxes
- •Executive summary
- •Absent a change in course, ammonia production would continue to take an environmental toll
- •Towards more sustainable ammonia production
- •Near-zero-emission ammonia production requires new infrastructure, innovation and investment
- •Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
- •Chapter 1. Ammonia production today
- •Ammonia and society
- •Nitrogen fertilisers: An indispensable input to our modern agricultural systems
- •Demand, supply and trade
- •Ammonia production fundamentals
- •Current and emerging production pathways
- •A brief history of ammonia production
- •Natural gas reforming
- •Coal gasification
- •Near-zero-emission production routes currently being pursued
- •Economic considerations
- •Ammonia and the environment
- •Non-CO2 environmental impacts
- •Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production and use
- •Impacts on water, soil, air and ecosystems
- •What will happen tomorrow to today’s CO2 emissions from ammonia production?
- •Chapter 2. The future of ammonia production
- •Three contrasting futures for the ammonia industry
- •The outlook for demand and production
- •The outlook for nitrogen demand, nutrient use efficiency and material efficiency
- •Nitrogen demand drivers
- •Measures to improve nitrogen use efficiency
- •The outlook for production
- •Technology pathways towards net zero emissions
- •Energy consumption and CO2 emissions
- •A portfolio of mitigation options
- •Innovative technology pathways
- •Overview of global and regional technology trends
- •China
- •India
- •North America
- •Europe
- •Other key regions
- •Considerations for the main innovative technologies
- •Dedicated VRE electrolysis
- •CCUS-equipped pathways
- •Readiness, competitiveness and investment
- •An array of technology options at differing levels of maturity
- •Exploring key uncertainties
- •Future production costs
- •Uncertainty in technology innovation
- •Investment
- •Chapter 3. Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
- •The current policy, innovation and financing landscape
- •Ongoing efforts by governments
- •Carbon pricing and energy efficiency measures
- •Support for near-zero-emission technology RD&D and early commercial deployment
- •Policies for improving efficiency of use
- •International collaboration
- •Encouraging progress in the private sector
- •Initiatives involving financial institutions and investors
- •Recommendations for accelerating progress
- •Framework fundamentals
- •Establishing plans and policy for long-term CO2 emission reductions
- •Mobilising finance and investment
- •Targeted actions for specific technologies and strategies
- •Managing existing assets and near-term investment
- •Creating a market for near-zero-emission nitrogen products
- •Developing earlier-stage near-zero-emission technologies
- •Improving use efficiency for ammonia-base products
- •Necessary enabling conditions
- •Enhancing international co-operation and creating a level playing field
- •Planning and developing infrastructure
- •Tracking progress and improving data
- •Key milestones and decision points
- •Annexes
- •Abbreviations
- •Units of measure
Ammonia Technology Roadmap |
Executive summary |
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production |
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reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario stem from technologies that are currently in the demonstration phase.
New infrastructure must be deployed at a rapid clip. The Sustainable Development Scenario requires more than 110 GW of electrolyser capacity and 90 Mt of CO2 transport and storage infrastructure by 2050. This means installing on average ten 30 MW electrolysers (the largest facility in operation today) per month and 1 large capture project (annual capture, transport and storage capacity of 1 Mt CO2) every four months between now and 2050. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, the additional emission reductions require an even more rapid deployment of these technologies.
Overall investment needs for a sustainable pathway are roughly equivalent to those associated with current trends. The Sustainable Development Scenario requires USD 14 billion in annual capital investment for ammonia production to 2050. Of this, 80% is in near-zero-emission production routes. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario requires only slightly higher annual investment – USD 15 billion to 2050. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, it is only after 2040 that the investment per tonne of ammonia produced increases above that of the Stated Policies Scenario. Prior to 2040, the avoidance of continued capital-intensive investment in coal-based production in China yields significant savings, and the lower quantity of ammonia produced yields further savings in overall investment needs.
Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
The industry is primed for change. Governments, producers and other stakeholders have already begun taking action to reduce emissions from the ammonia industry. Some governments have adopted carbon pricing regimes and are funding innovation, while producers have set emission reduction targets and are undertaking RD&D projects. Despite these efforts, emissions continue to rise, and greater ambition is needed.
Governments’ role is central. Governments will need to establish a policy environment supportive of ambitious emission cuts by creating transition plans underpinned by mandatory emission reduction policies, together with mechanisms to mobilise investment. Targeted policy is also required to address existing emissions-intensive assets, create markets for near-zero-emission products, accelerate RD&D and incentivise end-use efficiency for ammonia-based products. Governments should ensure that enabling conditions are in place, including a level
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IEA. All rights reserved.
Ammonia Technology Roadmap |
Executive summary |
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production |
|
playing field in the global market for low-emission products, infrastructure for hydrogen and CCS, and robust data on emissions performance.
Other stakeholders also have a crucial part to play. Ammonia producers will need to establish transition plans, accelerate RD&D, and engage in initiatives to develop supporting infrastructure. Farmers and agronomists should prioritise best management practices for more efficient fertiliser use. Financial institutions and investors should use sustainable investment schemes to guide finance towards emission reduction opportunities. Researchers and non-governmental organisations can help develop labelling schemes, continue research on earlystage technologies and galvanise support for key technologies.
Time is of the essence. The current decade – from now to 2030 – will be critical to lay the foundation for long-term success, with around 10% of cumulative emission reductions to 2050 taking place by then in both the Sustainable Development Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Vital near-term actions include establishing strong supportive policy mechanisms, taking early action on energy and use efficiency, developing supporting infrastructure, and accelerating RD&D.
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