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http://studme.org/1482111111623/menedzhment/mnogofaktornye_nelineynye_uravneniya_regressii

6.	,	.	.									-
					/ . .		//	.			.	. -
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9.								ДЭ			]. -
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			, 2015. 10 .

121

FORECASTING THE EXPORT OF HIGH TECHNOLOGIES FROM AUSTRALIA

BASED ON MATHEMATICAL MULTIFACTOR MODELS

E.I. Sidorov

Sidorov Evgeniy Ivanovich *, Berezniki branch of the FGBU VO "Perm National Research Polytechnic University", student

Russia, Berezniki, e-mail: sid.evgeny2011@yandex.ru, tel. +7 3424 26-90-32

Abstract. The urgency of research of influence of various factors on size of a living wage in the Russian federation is proved. The type of model is chosen and a regression-differential model is constructed that describes the dynamics of the subsistence minimum and the impact on it of such factors as: the number of population, the number of able-bodied population, GDP, average wages, minimum wage, labor productivity index, oil price. On the basis of modeling for selected factors, a prognosis of the subsistence minimum was obtained. The regularities of the change in the subsistence minimum are determined, depending on the minimum wage, average wage, GDP and oil prices.

Key words: GDP, gross domestic product, labor productivity index, LMM, minimum wage, minimum wage, subsistence minimum, RDM, regression-differential model, average wages, oil price.

References

1.The Great Russian Encyclopedia. In 30 volumes - Moscow: Publishing House "The Big Russian Encyclopedia", 2005. - T. 1. - p. 106-109.

2.The publication "BIKI", June 23, 2009

3.Rating of countries in the world in terms of expenditure on R & D [Electronic resource]. - Access mode http://gtmarket.ru/ratings/research-and-development-expenditure/info

4.What is a trend model [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://www.putting- in.ru/forex/100-chto-predstavlyaet-soboy-trendovaya-model.html

5.Multifactor and non-linear regression equations [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://studme.org/1482111111623/menedzhment/mnogofaktornye_nelineynye_uravneniya_r egressii

6.Zatonsky, AV Advantages of differential models in environmental-economic modeling / AV Zatonsky // Izv. Tomsk Polytechnic Institute. university. - 2012. - T. 320, No. 5. - P. 134 - 139.

7.V.E. Lankin Decentralization of the management of socio-economic systems (systemic aspect). Monograph. - Taganrog: Publishing house TRTU, 2005. - 228p. [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://www.aup.ru/books/m1496/3_1_1.htm

8.Federal Service of State Statistics [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/urov/vpm/proj-min.html

9.The concept of developing a regression model for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of industrial enterprises [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://uecs.ru/uecs47-472012/item/1663-2012-11-14-06-19-05

10.Formula of Pearson's correlation coefficient [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://statpsy.ru/pearson/formula-pirsona/

11.Zatonsky, A. V. Modeling of the activity. Methodical recommendations for the implementation of the course work for students of the direction 09.04.01 "Informatics and computer technology" / A.V. Zatonsky - Perm. nat. study. polytechnical. Univ., Berezniki branch, 2015. 14 p.

12.Zatonsky, A. V. Modeling of the activity. Methodical recommendations for the implementation of the course work for students of the direction 09.04.01 "Informatics and computer technology" / A.V. Zatonsky - Perm. nat. study. polytechnical. Univ., Berezniki branch, 2015. 10 p.

122

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	. .												//
	«			»	9, №1 (2017)			-					//
-	«			»	9, №1 (2017)
http://naukovedenie.ru/PDF/33TVN117.pdf (						).
2.	:				-	"	". Д					] -
: СЭЭp://ЭКss.rЮ/oЛsМСОsЭЯo/2738051.						. Д				]			:
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-					//							. 2011. №
11. . 110-116.									Д				] -
5.									Д				] -

http://studme.org/1482111111623/menedzhment/mnogofaktornye_nelineynye_uravneniya_regressii;
6.	Д	]	-

http://www.mbureau.ru/articles/dissertaciya-model-prognozirovaniya-vremennyh-ryadov-glava- 1#p_1.3.2.

128

7.		. .,	. .
2013. . 10. № 4.		. 99-104.	//	.
2013. . 10. № 4.		. 99-104.		Д
8.			-	Д
]	–	:	http://referatyk.com/bezopasnost_jiznedeyatelnosti/8698-

problema_smertnosti_v_rezultate_dorojno-transportnyih_proisshestviy.html

FORECASTING ROAD ACCIDENT ON THE BASIS OF MATHEMATICAL

MULTI-FACTOR MODELS IN THE PERM REGION

K.D. Prokofieva, A.S.Fedoseeva

Prokofieva Kristina Dmitrievna, Berezniki branch of Perm National Research Polytechnic University, student

Russia, Berezniki, e-mail: prok.555@mail.ru, tel. +7 3424 26-90-32

Fedoseeva Alexandra Sergeevna, Berezniki branch of Perm National Research Polytechnic University, student

Russia, Berezniki, e-mail: sashulkafed@mail.ru, tel. +7 3424 26-90-32

Abstract. The urgency of research of influence of various factors on the number of road accidents in the Perm region is justified. Type of the model is selected. State space model is designed to describe the dynamics of road accidents and the influence of factors such as the population, the amount of alcohol consumed by population, the index of tariffs for freight transport and the cash income of the population. Prediction of road accidents is obtained based on the forecast of the selected factors.

Keywords: the road accidents, modeling, forecasting, the number of traffic accident, mathematical multi-factor models.

References

1.Katasonov M. V., Leskin A. I., Kochetkov A.V., Syroezhkina M. A., Shchegoleva N.

In. Zadvornov V. Yu. Mathematical model of forecasting of traffic accidents on the road network and in places of concentration of road accidents// Internet-УoЮrЧКl "sМТОЧМО oП SCIENCE» VolЮЦО

9, No. 1 (2017) http://naukovedenie.ru/PDF/33TVN117.pdf (free access).

2.PЮЭТЧ: roКН sКПОЭв Тs ЧoЭ К «СoЮsОСolН». [Electronic resource] - access mode: http://tass.ru/obschestvo/2738051

3.Analysis of the causes and circumstances of the accident. [Electronic resource] - access mode: http://www.60.by/ru/content/master/dvslusl/reasons

4.Zatonskiy A. V., Ivanova E. V. the Methods of formalization of self-evaluation on the example of scientific-research work of students// Informatization of education and science. 2011. No. 11. P. 110-116.

5.Multifactor and nonlinear regression equations. [Electronic resource] - http://studme.org/1482111111623/menedzhment/mnogofaktornye_nelineynye_uravneniya_regressii

6. Autoregressive models. [Electronic resource] - http://www.mbureau.ru/articles/dissertaciya-model-prognozirovaniya-vremennyh-ryadov-glava- 1#p_1.3.2

7.Yanchenko T. V., Zatonsky A.V. Determination of optimal ranking of particular criteria for assessing the regional social resource// Economics and management of management systems. 2013. Vol. 10. No. 4. P. 99-104.

8.Problems caused by road traffic accidents. [Electronic resource] - access mode: http://referatyk.com/bezopasnost_jiznedeyatelnosti/8698- problema_smertnosti_v_rezultate_dorojno-transportnyih_proisshestviy.html.

129

334.7

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130

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