Unit 3. Hypothesis, Experiment and Results

What first comes to mind when you hear the words

“hypothesis”, “ОбpОrТЦОЧt” КЧН “rОsuХt”?

Do you often hypothesize in your every-day life? What

do you usually make hypotheses about? Have you ever tried an experiment? Why?

Can you associate the pictures (pic. 5, a d) with famous hypotheses?

Pic. 5

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Here are examples of hypotheses. Pick out the variables related in these statements and expected outcomes. First, read the information from the box.

Formalized hypotheses contain two variables. One is "independent" and the other is "dependent." The independent variable is the one you control and the dependent variable is the one that you observe and/or measure the results.

e.g. If skin cancer (dependent variable) is related to ultraviolet light (independent variable), then people with a high exposure to UV light will have a higher frequency of skin cancer (outcome).

1.If the size of the molecules is related to the rate of diffusion as they pass through a membrane, then smaller molecules will flow through at a higher rate.

2.If there is a relation between the wave length of light and the photosynthesis rate, then light of different colors will cause the plant to make different amounts of oxygen.

3.There is a positive correlation between the availability of hours for work and the productivity of employees.

4.If leaf color change is related to temperature, then exposing plants to low temperatures will result in changes in leaf color.

5.The higher the industry competitiveness, the higher the internal R&D investments of companies in that respective industry.

Summarize the passage about hypotheses in one statement.

One of the cool things about science is that other scientists can learn things from what has already been established. They don't have to go out

and test everything again and again. That's what makes science special: it builds on what has been learned before. АСКt вШu “tСТЧФ” аТХХ СКppОЧ, ШП

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course, should be based on your preliminary research and your understand-

ing of the science and scientific principles involved in your proposed experТЦОЧt Шr stuНв. IЧ ШtСОr аШrНs, вШu НШЧ't sТЦpХв “РuОss”. ВШu'rО ЧШt

taking a shot in the dark. You're not pulling your statement out of thin air. Instead, you make КЧ “ОНuМКtОН РuОss” based on what you already know and what you have already learned from your research.

Develop hypotheses out of these predictions by formalizing them (include variables and outcomes).

1.Salt in soil may affect plant growth.

2.Temperature may cause leaves to change color.

3.Trees will change color when it gets cold.

Say if the statements below are: a) empirically testable; b) verifyable / falsifiable. Can you make a conclusion if they can be scientific hypotheses?

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1.There are other inhabited planets in the universe.

2.Any two objects dropped from the same height above the surface of the earth will hit the ground at the same time, as long as air resistance is not a factor.

First, write down the hypothesis related to your research. Then discuss it with your group. Try to consider the questions below.

Is your hypothesis testable, falsifiable? What variables does it include?

Is it related to the research problem?

Say, what is a scientific experiment, why scientists perform expОrimОnts. CompКrО вour iНОКs аitС tСosО ЛОloа. WСКt СКvОn’t

An experiment is a planned way to test a hypothesis and find out the an-swer to the problem statement.

An experiment is a way to collect data and determine the value of thedependent variable.

An experiment compares the independent variable to the dependent vari-able.

Typically, an experiment is constructed to explain some kind of causation. The basic principle of causality is determining whether the results and trends seen in an experiment are actually caused by the manipulation orwhether some other factor may underlie the process.

An experiment is a study in which the researcher manipulates the level of some independent variable and then measures the outcome. Experiments are powerful techniques for evaluating cause-and-effect relationships. Many researchers consider experiments the "gold standard" against which all other research designs should be judged.

A. Match the words related to the experiment (1 3) and their descriptions (A F).

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B. Case study: scan the abstracts of PhD theses and pick out variables under investigation.

Sample 1

Social Entrepreneurship and Innovation:

A Case Study on International Awards

The objective of this dissertation is to explore the relationship between innovation and social entrepreneurship, to investigate the ways in which social entrepreneurship can be innovative, and to understand how such innovativeness can be evaluated. In order to complete the research objectives, six international awards of social entrepreneurship have been investigated. A representative of each organization has been interviewed and organizational documents have been researched. The findings show a strong connection between innovation and social entrepreneurship, a relationship that can be considered inherent to the concept of social entrepreneurship. The most common types of innovations among social entrepreneurs are found to be (1) the use and reuse of existing assets of marginalized groups, (2) the provision of tailor made service packages to the ones in need, (3) business model innovation, (4) incremental technological innovation and (5) the opening of new markets. Social entrepreneurs can be labeled as creative imitators and constant innovators. The most widespread system of assessment among the investigated organizations regarding the evaluation of the relative innovativeness of social entrepreneurship is the utilization of experts. These findings shed light on the topic of social entrepreneurship which, in spite of the interest demonstrated by scholars in the topic, is still in its infancy where research is concerned.

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Sample 2

Development and Use of a Multi-color Tracer Technique to Investigate Colloid Facilitated Transport

through Unsaturated Vadose Zone Soil

A novel multi-colored method for tracing several different sizes of colloid at once was developed using fluorescently dyed latex polystyrene microspheres and employing a solvent dissolution method (SDM) developed from that used in bio-medical research for the detection of these tracers. The use of this method means that both the breakthrough characteristics, and colloidal mobilization and deposition patterns within the soil profile, can be investigated as it allows detection of the microsphere tracers in both water and soil samples.

A series of laboratory based rainfall simulation experiments car-

ried out on a four large intact soil cores showed that the four sizes of

ПХuШrОsМОЧt ЦТМrШspСОrО usОН ТЧ tСТs rОsОКrМС (1.βµЦ, 0.8µЦ, 0.4µЦ

КЧН 0.βµЦ) МШuХН ЦТЦТМ tСО ЛОСКЯТШr ШП tСО МШrrОspШЧНТЧР sТгО ПrКc- tions of both TP and MRP extremely successfully, though the correlation was stronger for TP. These experiments also showed that the colloidal and colloid-borne P could make a significant contribution to phosphorus losses from agricultural soils. Further, a high proportion

of all four size fractions were found to be molybdate reactive, indicat-

ТЧР tСКt МurrОЧt аКtОr quКХТtв ЦШЧТtШrТЧР аСТМС usОs MRP<0.45µЦ Кs a measure of bioavailable P in surface waters may result in serious underestimation. The potential impact of phosphorous losses from diffuse sources through unsaturated vadose zone soils on ecological water quality may be considerably greater than previously thought.

Scan the passage and explain the meaning of the phrases in bold. Then answer some questions about scientific experiments.

The researcher designs experiments to provide evidence in support of the hypothesis. The experiment may involve creating a theoretical model, which may be tested on a computer. Whatever form the experiment takes, the scientist must gather substantial amounts of data. Analysis of the data will either suggest the validity of the hypothesis or encourage revision.

Once revised and retested, the hypothesis must withstand the scrutiny of other scientists as well. They may repeat the experiment to retest the va-

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lidity of the hypothesis, along with the validity of the methods used to test the hypothesis.

One of the fundamental prerequisites of a healthy scientific method is the quality of experimentation that is designed to test a hypothesis.

Questions:

1.What requirements should the experiment meet?

2.Can you identify any stages in supporting hypotheses?

A. In pairs suggest ideas about differences between three types of experimental research: laboratory and field experiments, field studies. To check your ideas see the definitions below.

A laboratory experiment is a research study conducted in a contrived setting in which the effect of all, or nearly all, influential but irrelevant independent variables is kept to a minimum.

A field experiment is a research study conducted in a natural setting with some amount of researcher interference, when one or more independent variables are manipulated by the experimenter under conditions controlled as carefully as the situation will permit (contrived setting).

A field study is a research study when various factors are examined in the natural settings in which daily activities are going on as normal with minimal research interference (noncontrived setting).

B.Define the type of experiments in the given below examples.

1.A researcher wants to determine the cause-and-effect relationship between interest rate and the inducements it offers to clients to save and deposit money in the bank. She selects branches within a 60-mile radius for the experiment. For 1 week only, she advertises the annual rate for new certificates of deposit received during that week in the following manner: the interest rate would be 9% in one branch, 8% in another, and 10% in the third. In the fourth branch, the interest rate remains unchanged at 5%. Within the week, she would be able to determine the effects, if any, of interest rates on deposit mobilization.

2.A researcher wants to analyze the relationship between interest rates and bank deposit patterns of clients. She tries to correlate the two by looking at deposits into different kinds of accounts (such as savings, certificates of deposit, and interest-bearing checking accounts) as interest rates changed.

3.A researcher wants to establish the causal connection between interest rates and saving, beyond a doubt. She recruits 40 students who are

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all business majors in their final year of study. She splits them into four groups and gives each one of them amount of $1,000, which they are told they might utilize to buy their needs or save for the future, or both. She offers them an incentive, interest on what they save but manipulates the interest rates by offering a 6% interest rate on savings for group 1, 8% for group 2, 9% for group 3, and keeps the interest at the lowest rate of 1% for group 4.

C. Here are four statements comparing two types of experiments: laboratory and field (Parasuraman, Grewal, Krishnan, 2004). Can you account for these opinions?

1.Time: field experimentation is more time consuming than laboratory.

2.Cost: field experimentation is more expensive than laboratory.

3.Exposure to competition: a theory tested in the field may allow access by the competition to the idea.

4.Nature of manipulation: some things simply cannot be tested adequately in a laboratory.

A. First make a list of data, which scientists usually collect during experiments. Then compare your lists with the information from the table. What data types do your examples belong to? Differentiate between these data types.

B. Practise collecting quantitative and qualitative data.

A. Listen to the speaker and practise pronunciation of phrases

measure

take measurements (of)

check test compare

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B. First study the words in the table (above) and the context below. Then compare the meaning of the words in bold.

1.What were the doses used in assaying the preparation toxicity?

2.The DNA assays are more sensitive than urine cultures for detecting CMV.

3.How did you assess the radiation level?

4.The legal costs have been assessed Кt £75,000.

5.The study will evaluate the long-term effects of exposure to radiation.

6.The evidence should be carefully evaluated.

7.The results of the survey were used to estimate the preferences of the

population at large.

8.We estimated tСО МШst Кt £50,000.

9.We are interested in determining the cost.

10.Computer models help to determine whether a particular area is likely to flood.

11.We have chosen to define the scope of our study quite broadly.

12.It is important to define these terms accurately.

13.We have not yet clearly identified the source of the pollution.

14.All three structures dated to the third century and were tentatively identified as shrines.

15.Townsend's work firmly established the links between unemployment and poverty.

16.The cause of the effect has not yet been established.

17.The sum involved was calculated at $82 million.

18.The program helps you to calculate how much tax you have to pay.

Work in pairs. Look through a scientific paper and ask each other about experiments in this work. You should start as fol-

lows:

1. HШа НТН tСО КutСШrs НОtОrЦТЧО …? β. HШа НТН tСО КutСШrs ЦОКsurО …? γ. HШа НТН tСО КutСШrs ОstКЛХТsС …?

4.HШа НТН tСО КutСШrs ОЯКХuКtО …?

5.HШа НТН tСО КutСШrs КssОss …?

6.HШа НТН tСО КutСШrs МСОМФ …?

7.HШа НТН tСО КutСШrs НОПТЧО …?

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A. Study some examples of describing the aim, the object and variables of experiments. Substitute the parts in italics for those

The appropriate concentra tion of the drug is best determined by exper-

iment.

The experiment aimed at cutting road deaths resulting from excessive

speeding.

We decided to try an experiment in single-sex teaching.

We have experimented with different designs of engine.

We experimented successfully on the plants to discover diseaseresistant varieties.

B.Complete the statements with ideas about your research.

1.… Тs КssОssОН ШЧ tСО ЛКsТs ШП …

2.We will make ЦОКsurОЦОЧts ШП … tШ ТЦprШЯО …

3.We concentrate Шur ОбpОrТЦОЧts ШЧ ОбpХШrТЧР …

4.АО МШХХОМt … НКtК ШЧ …

5.We do not look Кt …

6.АО rОprШНuМОН … ТЧ Шur sТЦuХКtТШЧs.

7.We sСКХХ ОбКЦТЧО … tШ ТЧМrОКsО …

8.… sКЦpХОs (ШП …) аТХХ ЛО ТЧЯШХЯОН ТЧ tСО stuНв.

9.InitТКХХв tСОrО аКs/аОrО…, ХКtОr …

10.АО ОбpОМt tСКt …

11.We shall spend much time on an experiment аТtС …

12.I аШЧНОr СШа ШПtОЧ … ЦКв ШММur.related to your investigation.

A. Study the following description of an experiment and write down a brief report on experiments in your research (50 words).

WО КrО РШТЧР ПТЧН Шut tСО ОППОМt ШП … ШЧ … One simple experiment would be to dissolve … ТЧ … ШП НТППОrОЧt tОЦpОrКturОs КЧН tШ ФООp trКМФ ШП СШа ЦuМС tТЦО Тt tКФОs ПШr … tШ НТssШХЯО. TСТs аШuХН ЛО К test of the

idea that the rate of dissolving varies according to the kinetic energy of the solvent.

We want to make sure to use the exact same amount of … in each trial, and the exact same amount of …. We do this to make sure that the temperature alone causes the effect. It might be, for example, that the ratio of … to … is also a factor in the rate of dissolving. To be extra careful, we

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might also run the experiment so that the … temperature does not change during the experiment.

This is called "isolating a variable". This means that, of the factors which might have an effect, only one is being changed in the experiment.

We will do the experiment in three trials, which are exactly the same, except for the temperature of the ...

To see results we make a table of them, listing all of the things that changed each time we ran the experiment. If every other part of the experiment was the same, then this would be very good evidence that … affects how fast … is dissolved.

B. Tell your group about the aim of your experiments. Let your groupmates clarify some details.

A. Match the pictures below (pic. 6, a f) and the words from the box. What do these tools measure?

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Pic. 6

B. Do the data in the table match? Make corrections, if necessary.

C. What research tools/methods will you choose in each case?

Tell your group about the aim of your experiments. Let your groupmates guess what tools/methods you apply in your research.

Scan text B and pick out common mistakes scientists make while performinР tСОir ОбpОrimОnts. Don’t вou tСink вou МКn

repeat some of these mistakes?

The scientific method attempts to minimize the influence of the scientist's bias on the outcome of an experiment. That is, when testing a hypothesis, the scientist may have a preference for one outcome or another, and it is important that this preference not bias the results or their interpretation. The most fundamental error is to mistake the hypothesis for an ex-

planation of a phenomenon, without performing experimental tests. Sometimes “common sОЧsО” КЧН “ХШРТМ” tempt us into believing that no test is

needed. There are numerous examples of this, dating from the Greek philosophers to the present day.

Another common mistake is to ignore or rule out data which do not support the hypothesis. Ideally, the experimenter is open to the possibility that the hypothesis is correct or incorrect. Sometimes, however, a scientist may have a strong belief that the hypothesis is true (or false), or feels in-

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ternal or external pressure to get a specific result. In that case, there may be a psychological teЧНОЧМв tШ ПТЧН “sШЦОtСТЧР аrШЧР”, such as systematic

effects, with data which do not support the scientist's expectations, while data which do agree with those expectations may not be checked as carefully. The lesson is that all data must be handled in the same way.

Another common mistake arises from the failure to estimate quantitatively systematic errors. There are many examples of discoveries which were missed by experimenters whose data contained a new phenomenon,

but who explained it away as a systematic background. Conversely, there КrО ЦКЧв ОбКЦpХОs ШП КХХОРОН “new discoveries” which later proved to be due to systematic errШrs ЧШt КММШuЧtОН ПШr Лв tСО “discoverers”.

In a field where there is active experimentation and open communication among members of the scientific community, the biases of individuals or groups may cancel out, because experimental tests are repeated by different scientists who may have different biases. In addition, different types of experimental setups have different sources of systematic errors. Over a period spanning a variety of experimental tests (usually at least several years), a consensus develops in the community as to which experimental results have stood the test of time.

Summarize the passage related to scientific results in one sentence.

An ad hoc analysis is a hypothesis invented after testing is done, to try to explain why the contrary evidence. A poor ad hoc analysis may be seen as the researcher's inability to accept that his/her hypothesis is wrong, while a great ad hoc analysis may lead to more testing and possibly a significant discovery. An interesting example of an apparently supported ad hoc hypothesis was Albert Einstein's addition of the cosmological constant

to general relativity in order to allow a static universe. Although he later referred to it as his “РrОКtОst ЛХuЧНОr”, Тt СКs ЛООЧ ПШuЧН tШ МШrrОspШЧН

quite well to the theories of dark energy.

Explain the meaning of the phrases in bold. Illustrate them with examples from your own research.

In quantitative research, the amount of data measured can be enormous. Data not prepared to be analyzed is called "raw data". The raw data is often summarized as something called "output data". A cell of the output data is, for example, an average of an effect in many trials for a subject. The output data is used for statistical analysis, e.g. significance tests, to see if there really is an effect. The aim of an analysis is to draw a conclusion, together with other observations. The researcher might generalize the results to a wider phenomenon, if there is no indication of confounding variables “polluting” the results. Researchers also allow the peer review process to check and validate their work.

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A. Briefly describe your future steps in obtaining results of your investigation. Use the model below.

Model:

In an eбperiment to studв the effects of … upon …, аe shall find that/аhat … . We shall announce that this correlation shoаs that … .

B. Case Study: analyze the following descriptions of research results from PhD theses. Suppose you have performed your experiment, how will you describe the results of your research? What is your contribution to science?

Sample 1

Strategic Response to Predicted Events:

The Case of the Banning of CFCs

The thesis is centered around the question of how and why organizations and networks adapt to predictable, yet discontinuous, change in their environments. A variety of patterns of transmission and transformation reveal the differing location of the dynamics of change within the nets studied. Some relationships between the different schools of strategic thought have been found. In the thesis the role of different configurations of contexts and mechanisms provides an explanation of differences in the observed response outcomes of multiple industrial nets.

Sample 2

Boolean Network Simulation for

Exploring the Dynamics of Industrial Network

The simulation experiments trace the emergence of the overall exchange patterns for the network in a bottom-up manner as exchange processes organized and enacted locally unfold over time. The research offers a novel way of explaining the patterns of stability and change observed in real life industrial networks through the ability of networks to evolve endogenously a limited set of global dynamical structures, attractors. They emerge out of local processes of interaction between network elements and stabilize the system by defining the boundaries for the dynamics at the local level.

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Sample 3

Social Entrepreneurship and Innovation: A Case Study on International Awards

The findings show a strong connection between innovation and social entrepreneurship, a relationship that can be considered inherent to the concept of social entrepreneurship. The most common types of innovations among social entrepreneurs are found to be (1) the use and reuse of existing assets of marginalized groups, (2) the provision of tailor made service packages to the ones in need, (3) business model innovation. Social entrepreneurs can be labeled as creative imitators and constant innovators. These findings shed light on the topic of social entrepreneurship which, in spite of the interest demonstrated by scholars in the topic, is still in its infancy where research is concerned.

Sample 4

Development and Use of a Multi-color Tracer Technique to Investigate Colloid Facilitated Transport

through Unsaturated Vadose Zone Soil

A series of laboratory based rainfall simulation experiments were carried out on a four large intact soil cores. These experiments also showed that the colloidal and colloid-borne P could make a significant contribution to phosphorus losses from agricultural soils. These experiments showed that the colloidal and colloid-borne P could make a significant contribution to phosphorus losses from agricultural soils. The potential impact of phosphorous losses from diffuse sources through unsaturated vadose zone soils on ecological water quality may be considerably greater than previously thought.

Do you agree with these statements concerning research? Why?

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A

Use an appropriate word in the context:

1. … МКЧ ЛО tОstОН аТtС stКtТstТМКХ prШМОНurОs.

β. АСОЧ НОsТРЧТЧР ОбpОrТЦОЧts rОsОКrМСОrs МКrОПuХХв МШЧtrШХ … .

3. A scientific hypothesis is based on experiments and observations from

the past that cannot be explained with current ... .

4. TШ … ЦОКЧs tШ prШЯО tСКt sШЦОtСТЧР Тs truО Шr МШrrОМt.

1.Is the speed of a roller coaster influenced by the shape of the car?

2.How does the size of a motor affect speed?

CIdentify the given below statements as research question or hypothesis.

1.The relationship between innovation and slack is negatively moderated by organizational size.

2.Does temperature affect the height of a plant?

D Choose the correct answer.

1.A good hypothesis should always: o be easy to understand

o contain an independent variable o be testable

o all of the above

2.Quantitative studies focus on:

osurvey data

oword data

oface-to-face interviews

onumerical data

3.Which of the following is a form of field research?

osurvey

oface-to-face interview

odirect observation

oall of the above

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4. Descriptive or qualitative studies:

ofocus on numerical data rather than observations

ofocus on numerical data

ofocus on study descriptions

ofocus on the significance of observations made rather than numerical data

5.Which of the following is the best example of a hypothesis?

oConsuming fewer calories than your body uses will cause weight loss.

oOvereating causes weight gain.

oIf eating fewer calories causes weight loss and calorie consumption is lowered, then weight loss will occur.

oIf eating fewer calories than your body uses causes weight loss, then X will lose weight.

A software engineer wants to establish whether the new prototype software

(x) performs better than existing system (y) and hence whether it is worth developing further.

How do you assess your results?

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