Miller, Ed. Smallll Stakes No-Limit Holdem

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good.” If you try to bluff the river, these players will often call you with most pairs.

To summarize, after raising preflop and getting called on the flop, a turn ace represents a decent bluffing opportunity. It’s only decent because, while it’s easy for you to represent the ace, the card will often have improved your opponent’s hand as well. If you actually hold an ace in your hand, particularly with a weak kicker, then checking it is often best against both bad and good players. Because an ace is your most obvious holding, you’ll tend to get folds from weaker hands and action from better ones. If you get checked to again on the river, you can bet your ace for value. This sequence will improve your chance of getting action from weaker hands and sometimes allow you to get away against better ones (if your opponent makes a big river bet that is not likely to be a bluff). If you don’t hold an ace, then against unthinking players you can just bet the turn as a bluff, representing the ace. Unthinking players won’t know that you would often check it back if you actually held an ace. Thinking players, however, will know that your turn bet is fishy, and they can use that information to exploit you. So against thinking players, you can employ a delayed bluff by checking the turn and bluffing the river. This action mimics how you’d play a real ace and is therefore a more credible bluff.

Barreling Examples

64s On The Button: Firing A Second Barrel

You are in a 6-handed $1–$2 game with $200 effective stacks. The first three players fold to you on the button. You look down at 6♦4♦. Both players in the blinds are tight and passive. Your chances of stealing the blinds are good, so you raise to $5. The small blind folds, and the big blind calls. He is a 19/6.

The big blind plays predictably preflop with big hands. He would likely have reraised with a big pocket pair and probably with aceking. Since he didn’t, you estimate his range to be medium and small pocket pairs, big cards, and maybe some suited connectors. You think

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he’d often fold suited connectors out of position, but you aren’t sure, so you include it in his possible range.

The flop comes 5♦5♠3♣, giving you an open-ended straight draw. The big blind checks, and you bet $6 into the $11 pot. He calls.

The turn is the K♥, and your opponent checks again. What should you do?

You should bet big. Players often check behind here because they think taking the free card is the right play. But it’s not. The reason? Fold equity.

Consider your opponent’s range for checkcalling a flop bet. His most likely hand is a medium or small pocket pair. He could also have a strong hand like a five or threes full, or he could have a weak hand like ace-high.

The king is a great card to bet because your opponent likely doesn’t have one. He probably would have reraised preflop with aceking, and—as a tight player—he probably would have folded kinghigh on the flop. The king is a scare card for all of his medium and weak hands.

Perhaps you might be asking, “What about my draw? I don’t want to get blown off my hand!”

The value of your draw is far secondary to your fold equity. Your implied odds are weak because your opponent likely doesn’t have much of a hand. And if he does have a strong hand, you may be drawing dead. Folding to a checkraise now may actually cost you less over the long-run than making your draw.

This is a good spot to fire a second barrel. Bet the pot or close to it.

Barreling In And Out Of Position

The hero opens for $7 from under the gun with 5♠5♥. The cutoff and button both call. The cutoff is new to the game, and the button is a decent if somewhat weak-tight 15/10 player. Effective stacks are $260, or 130bb.

The pot is $24, or 12bb. The flop is 7♦6♥3♣, making a gutshot for the pocket fives. The hero bets $18. The cutoff folds, and the button calls.

The turn is the K♣. What should the hero do now?

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This is a great situation to fire a second barrel. Several things are going for you:

The button is somewhat weak-tight.

The button is a 15/10 so he is unlikely to have a king.

The turn is a big overcard that could easily have given you top pair.

You have a gutshot draw if behind, and a five will likely win it also.

If you get raised, you can fold knowing that you’re likely behind and have relatively little equity.

When an overcard comes on the turn, it’s often a great time to fire a second barrel, especially if you raised preflop. Many of your opponent’s flop calls will be made with marginal pairs, and the overcard could be just enough to convince them that they don’t really want to take their shrinking pair to an expensive showdown.

Marginal pair/marginal draw hands are also attractive for making turn semibluffs. Several good things can happen when you play these hands hard:

You could win the pot without a fight.

You could get called by a drawing hand, the river could go check-check, and you could win a showdown.

You could get called by a moderate made hand, hit your draw, and win even more on the river.

You could get raised off your hand by a monster, saving you from a big loss.

The last point is the most subtle. When you have a combination marginal pair/marginal draw hand such as a small pair with a gutshot draw, your hand has decent equity against bigger pairs, but it can get into real trouble against two pair, a set, or a better draw.

If you’re up against a set of sixes or sevens, for instance, instead of having six outs to a decent winner, you have four outs to the win but two outs to a big losing hand. Your draw loses the bulk of its value

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against strong hands, and it’s these strong hands that rate to raise you on the turn. So if you get raised on the turn, often you’re merely being warned that your hand had little value to begin with, and having to fold it is no big deal.

Here’s another example of firing a second barrel on the turn with a marginal pair and draw. Both players involved in the hand start with $200.

Everyone folds to the 22/9 small blind who calls. The 25/23 big blind holds T♣8♦ and makes it $8 to go. This raise is a standard, positional one. Often it will win the pot immediately. If the small blind calls, the big blind will be fine, playing a decent hand with position.

The small blind does call, and the flop comes J♦8♥6♦, giving the big blind middle pair. The small blind checks, and the big blind bets $12. The small blind calls.

The turn is the 7♦, putting a three-straight and a three-flush on board. The small blind checks. The big blind now has second pair, a one-card gutshot, and a weak one-card flush draw. This collection of marginal draws and a marginal pair gives him strong reason to bet the turn. If he gets called, he has a number of outs against top pair. And if he gets checkraised, frequently he’s drawing nearly dead, so he may not be missing out on much if he has to fold.

Ace-Jack Offsuit In The Small Blind

Stacks are $200. Everyone folds to you in the small blind, and you make it $8 with A♠J♥. The 29/8 big blind calls. He is a passive player and slightly on the loose side. Keeping in mind that this is a blind versus blind battle, and also that he views you as being fairly aggressive, you expect him to have a fairly wide range of hands here. That means pretty much anything playable, although he would probably have reraised with a premium hand.

The flop comes Q♠8♣5♦. You c-bet $12 into the $16 pot. He calls. The turn is the K♦. Should you check and give up, or should you fire again?

This is an excellent spot for a second barrel, and you should definitely bet again. Your opponent’s range is weak. He flat called a

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likely blind steal preflop, and then he called your flop bet on a fairly dry board. His most likely hand is one weak pair or a gutshot. The overcard king is unpleasant for most of the hands in his range. You have good fold equity, and a big turn bet will take down the pot a high percentage of the time.

Players sometimes see the king on the turn and think, “Oh, I picked up a gutshot. And because it’s a scare card, if I check, he’ll probably check and let me draw to my straight for free.” This is a classic example of overestimating implied odds and underestimating fold equity.

It’s true that if you check the turn, he’ll often check behind. So what? That just confirms what you already suspect, which is that his hand is weak. Even if you hit one of your meager four gutshot outs on the river, you don’t stand to make very much money. Further, checking the turn makes it harder to steal the pot on the river when you miss. A checked turn means a smaller pot on the river, which makes it easier for him to call your bluff. Plus, by checking the turn you give him a free card to improve, which would give him another reason to call your river bet.

When your opponents’ ranges are weak, think first about stealing and then about making the best hand. Even when you have some showdown equity, don’t ignore your folding equity.

Ace-King Out Of Position: Turn Semibluff

Stacks are $200. Everyone folds to the 27/25 button, who raises to $6. The small blind folds, and you are in the big blind with A♥K♠. The button is a solid, aggressive player capable of opening on the button with a wide range, playing back at 3-bets, 4-bet bluffing, floating flops, and so forth. You reraise to $21 with the intention of getting allin preflop if your opponent comes back over the top. But instead, your opponent calls. His range remains wide.

The flop comes 9♥5♥2♦. Here you should check sometimes and bet sometimes. This time you c-bet $35 into the $43 pot. Your opponent thinks for a few seconds and calls.

The turn is the 4♥. What should you do?

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Your opponent’s range is still wide. He could have a big hand like a set or a flush. He could also have called on the flop with a weak hand like pocket sevens or any nine, or absolutely nothing. Counting the possible combinations, the weak hands and air are far more numerous than the strong ones.

If the turn were a blank, you would probably have to check and give up the pot. But now you have two overcards and the nut flush draw. The pot is $113, and you have $144 left.

Stick it in.

Your opponent will fold most hands in his range. He’s a good player, and your line represents too much strength for him to call with a weak hand. He will often fold 8♦8♣ and even T♠9♠. You could have a bigger pair and a heart draw, and his equity with weak hands is not good against your range. About the only bluff hand in your range is the one you have, so take advantage of it.

If you happen to get called, you have outs no matter what your opponent has. If he has an overpair, you could have as many as 15 outs. And even if he already has a flush, you have seven outs.

Good fold equity combined with modest pot equity makes pushing all-in the right play.

A Commitment Bluff

Putting an opponent to a stack decision with a bluff is a great play. (See our sidebar below on the commitment threshold.) In fact, sometimes a bluff may be effective precisely because your opponent thinks you’re committed. Here’s an example:

Stacks are $200. A weak 21/6 player limps under the gun. The next two players fold, and you make it $9 on the button with Q♣T♣. The small blind folds, the 18/15 big blind calls, and the limper folds. The big blind is a fairly solid player, though a little on the tight side and not terribly tricky.

The flop comes 6♣2♦2♠. The big blind checks, and you c-bet $21 into the $21 pot. You usually c-bet about two-thirds of the pot, but this time you bet the full pot to discourage your tight opponent from calling with hands like ace-king or pocket threes. A big bet also

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discourages a checkraise bluff on this dry low board. He thinks for a few seconds and calls.

The turn is the A♥. Your opponent checks, and the action is on you. The pot is $63, and you have $170 left.

This is a good spot to continue bluffing. Your opponent’s range is mainly medium pocket pairs, and the ace is a great scare card. He isn’t quite good enough to know that many of your bets on turned aces are bluffs. Also, any big bet here puts him to a stack decision. He can plainly see that you have $170 left. If you bet $60 on the turn, he will likely assume you hit the ace and are committed. After all, why would you bet $60 with only $110 more remaining if you aren’t willing to risk your entire stack?

A $60 turn bet carries significant fold equity. Your opponent will almost certainly fold everything but strong hands. If he checkraises, you are likely drawing dead.

If you had bet, say, $15 on the flop and $32 on the turn, your opponent would be much more likely to take a stand and call your turn bet with JJ-77 or a six. But by building the pot and putting him to a commitment decision, you increase the likelihood of your bluff succeeding.

Don’t routinely bet a large percentage of your stack on a bluff. But when done judiciously against the right opponent, these big bluffs can be a potent weapon.

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Commitment And The Commitment Threshold

In our book Professional No-Limit Hold’em: Volume 1, we argued that you should plan your play around commitment, and we introduced the concept of the commitment threshold.

Commitment is a simple but powerful concept. The idea is that the larger the pot becomes relative to the remaining stacks, the more committed you should become to seeing a showdown. Say there’s $20 in the pot and you and your opponent each have $400 remaining. If your opponent does something to convince you that he likely has you beaten, then you should fold rather than risk $400 to win the $20 pot. But if there’s $600 in the pot, and you and your opponent each have $400 remaining, then you will often be committed for the rest of your stack even if you suspect you might be beaten. Since you’ll be risking $400 to win $1,000 (the $600 pot plus your opponent’s $400 stack), you can win only 30 percent of the time and still be right to put the money in.

You should plan your play around commitment. Before you make the plays that build that $600 pot, think about whether you want all your money in. This way you avoid some nasty surprises. As the hand proceeds and you gather additional information, reassess your commitment decision.

We discussed the commitment threshold in detail in

Professional No-Limit Hold’em: Volume 1. The executive bullet points are:

Don’t put in a third of your stack (or any big chunk of it) and then fold…

Unless you are bluffing…

Or you thought you would have the best of it in a big pot

but new information changed your mind.

Conceding a third of your stack is a disaster. Of course, some disasters are unavoidable. For example, say you flop two pair on a board with a flush draw. A third or so of the stacks go in, leaving one big bet behind. The flush hits on the turn. Your opponent

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pushes. If you think he has the flush, fold. You accept the small disaster to avoid a bigger one.

That said, because conceding a third or so of your stack is so expensive, we avoid it when possible. This requires thinking one big bet ahead. The rule of thumb is once 10 percent of the smaller stack goes in, think hard about commitment. Will getting all-in be profitable? If so, what is the most profitable betting line, and what cards or opponent betting actions would change your mind? If not, what will you do if faced with a big bet?

The commitment threshold is crossed when roughly 10 percent of the smaller stack goes in. Nothing magic happens at that point save that the next big bet gets around a third of your stack in, and two big bets gets you all-in or close to it. So it’s time to decide whether playing a big pot is a good idea. Make a commitment plan.

Commitment plans are fluid. If you are committed but something happens to change your mind—like that flush draw getting there—fine. The point is to think about big pots before you create them. If you don’t want a big pot, avoid big bets. Check or make a small bet instead.

Bluffing is the main exception to these recommendations. Bluffs are far more effective when they force opponents to stack decisions. Once 10 percent of the smaller stack goes in, there are two big bets between you and being all-in (or close to all-in). If you make that big bet bluff on the flop or turn, it will be obvious to an astute opponent that you might go all-in on a subsequent betting round. A big bet at the commitment threshold threatens your opponent with an all-in, putting him to a stack decision. But don’t overdo it or he'll wise up.

A Suited Connector Out Of Position

Suited connectors usually depend on fold equity to be profitable. They are much more valuable with position, and you should often fold them out of position. But you can occasionally mix it up.