4.2 Features of alliances in the Syrian War

To date, taking into account the constantly changing situation in the Syrian conflict, we will try to understand the reasons for the permanent change in the format of alliances in the region. It can be stated that the superpowers (USA), and those seeking to appear as such (Russia), at the initial stage of the conflict, did not quite imagine what they would have to face each other in Syria. External players did not say goodbye to the Cold War approaches, when the wars in the region, especially the Arab-Israeli ones, had mostly political reasons. In addition, satellites in the bipolar world had a rather narrow corridor of possibilities; they were not allowed to conduct actions that could provoke a conflict between superpowers. The players of the Syrian conflict did not take into account the many additional factors involved in Syria. Obviously, in addition to the political conflict, we have a religious confrontation of unprecedented scale (for example, no one practically used the Christian factor in Syria), as well as an ethnic conflict.

Alliances between the main players, generally, did not solve the problems of all the "layers" of confrontation, and, given the old ideology of the Cold War era, they did not yield a result in the traditional solution to the conflict.

Trump took the Saudi Arabia line on terrorism, which removes all guilt from the kingdom and shifts it to Iran. The Saudis literally showered Trump's inexperienced negotiators with attention, arms contracts and donations to the World Bank's fund, the benefit of which Ivanka Trump takes care. In 2016, as presidential candidate, Trump wrote in Facebook: "Saudi Arabia and many other countries that donated huge money to the Clinton Foundation want to turn women into slaves and support the killing of gays." Hillary must return all money from such countries!"

In short, the Saudis outplayed Trump. The United States has subscribed to the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia, an endless chain of conflicts with the Shiites and their allies throughout the Middle East. This will further confuse Washington in the endless struggle of different sects, will fuel instability in the region and complicate the ties of the United States with countries such as Iraq wishing to maintain good relations with both sides. But most importantly, this will not help get rid of the direct and constant threat to Americans-Jihad terrorism. It seemed to me that Trump was going to put America first, and not Saudi Arabia¹⁰⁵.<56>

The activities of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Turkey (TR) and the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) to establish and maintain a ceasefire in the Syrian Arab Republic symbolize a new stage in the development of a complex and complicated situation in this country.

Tehran does not allow the possibility of Assad's departure and regards it as a guarantor of preserving its vital influence in Syria, which is necessary to strengthen the "Shiite belt" from Afghanistan to Lebanon, to strengthen its positions in the Middle East.

Ankara, in turn, does not allow the formation of Kurdish statehood anywhere, supports the ethnically close Turkmen and Sunni Arab co-religionists, resists Iranian domination, both in Syria and throughout the Middle East region.

Moscow allows various options for the development of the situation, provided that the civil war is ended, the creation of a nationwide Syrian leadership supported by the majority of the population, and, of course, understanding and support of Damascus' interests of the Russian Federation and its role in Syria and the Middle East.

Damascus, of course, has its own vision of the post-war arrangement of the country. In addition, it coincides with the Russian proposals.

At the same time, Russia is in favor of preserving the secular character of the future Syria, but Turkey is against it. It is clear that the Turkish plan envisages the creation of a Sunni state, which clearly contradicts the hopes of Shiite Iran¹⁰⁶ [69].

Furthermore, political analysts note that Iran is afraid of the Russia-US alliance; Turkey – the Russian-Iranian alliance. At the same time, Ankara hopes for a renaissance of its relations with the US, expecting to keep the appearance of their Middle Eastern plans from the Trump administration, declares the "beginning of an Arab-Turkish project" aimed at blocking Iran.

Turkish-Iranian relations in recent months have heated up to the limit. Moreover, the initiator of this process was Ankara. In mid-February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Riyadh. In addition, as the media testify, there was a definite result on the anti-Iranian platform, the evidence of which did not take long to wait¹⁰⁷ [65].

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference-2017 on February 19, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Iran "poses a threat to security and stability in many places in the region." Under these many points, the main regional opponents of Iran - Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) understand: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Bahrain - the countries where the Sunni-Shiite confrontation is most vividly manifested. That is, Ankara identifies with the opponents of Iran. Further, the Turkish Foreign Minister expressed suspicion that "Iran has the intention to create two Shia states - one in Syria, the other in Iraq." Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkish Foreign Minister, expressed his suspicion that "Iran has the intention to create two Shia states - one in Syria, another in Iraq," which, he said, "poses a threat to security and stability in the region."

Chairman of the Committee of the Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Joseph Dunford, speaking at the Brookings Institution, said, "Iran is primarily a proliferator throughout the region, in Syria, Lebanon, as well as in Iraq and other countries in the region." Earlier, US Vice President Michael Pence and Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim examined during the meeting on the margins of the Munich Conference on Security possible ways to accelerate the pace of counteraction to the terrorist group ISIS. As reported by news agencies, "the interlocutors agreed that the US and Turkey will not allow Iran to undermine stability in the region." To put it another way, Washington began gradually deploying Ankara in the direction of confronting Tehran.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia also became much more active in the Iranian direction. In an interview with the German edition of Suddeutsche Zeitung, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, commenting on the situation in Syria, stressed that "President Bashar Assad must leave at the beginning of the transition process, while the Russian view is that he must leave at the end of the process, in the event that he will not be elected or will not run. " Further. "The US position is to destroy the terrorist group" Islamic State "(an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation)," says Adel al-Jubair. - The US military develops plans for the president on how to achieve this goal. The Kingdom and other states of the Persian Gulf have declared their readiness to participate on the side of the United States with special-purpose units. We will hold talks with the US to see what the plan is and what is necessary for its implementation. The basic idea is to free the territories from ISIS, but at the same time guarantee that they will not fall into the hands of Hezbollah, Iran or the regime." As for Iran alone, then, according to al-Jubair, "Tehran fosters confessionals in the region." At the same time, Turkey, noticed the Lebanese edition of the Middle East Panorama, used to distance itself from the American-Israeli alliance, but now it has become closer to it. That is, at first, in the opinion of the publication, Turkey "acted as a sponsor of terrorism, then announced the fight against it, and now returned to the desire to overthrow Assad."

In the meantime, the president of the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, Masoud Barzani, declares that "sooner or later he will hold a referendum on independence," hinting that he will take such a step if Iran's influence in Baghdad is strengthened. There is indeed a paradoxical situation. Turkey fears the emergence of Kurdish autonomy in Syria, but can support the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan. In this regard, the Turkish influential Milliyet newspaper warns "the crisis has entered a stage of discussion of the options for the Syrian resolution, and all parties that are in conflict and participating in Syria are looking for new solutions." Teheran fears an alliance between Washington and Moscow, Ankara - an alliance between Moscow and Tehran, entering into a political squabble with the latter. But the Moscow-Ankara alliance also looks not very stable, since Turkey is inclined to "revive" its relations with the US and is waiting for the appearance of their Middle Eastern plans, declares "the beginning of an Arab-Turkish project aimed at blocking Iran."

The results of the first - the Saudi - stage of the foreign tour of Donald Trump turned out to be impressive. The US president not only concluded military contracts with Riyadh for a fantastic amount - up to $ 350 billion over ten years. He launched a draft of a new military-political alliance in the Middle East, the so-called "Arab NATO". And although the US does not formally form part of this alliance, they actually head it, defining the goals and tasks of the new bloc. The bloc, which can radically change the entire alignment of forces in the region and blow up the system of checks and balances that existed up to now.

The "Arab NATO" will include more than 40 states - not only Arab, but also regional heavyweights, such as nuclear Pakistan. That is, to be precise, it would be worthwhile to call this bloc "Islamic NATO". And if to be completely honest, we would have to use a different term - "Sunni NATO". Because it is in this - in confronting Shiite Islam - the main, non-targeted goal of the organization created by the United States and the Saudi kingdom.

Tehran, with which outgoing President Barack Obama made a nuclear deal and which after that began to withdraw from international isolation, for Trump's team is again a potential adversary. And it is considered in the same breath as the "Islamic State" and "Al-Qaeda," which exploded the New York Twin Towers 16 years ago.

Washington under President Trump begins to look at the Middle East with Saudi eyes. And for the Saudis, the main geopolitical, ideological, existential conflict is confrontation with the Shiite branch of Islam. And now the United States actually entered this war, and moreover inspired, led the anti-Shiite military alliance.

It should be noted that the Munich Conference on Security-2017 was also marked by other interesting features. Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in fact acted as a united front on the issue of confronting Iran. Representatives of these states called for the imposition of new sanctions against Tehran. The speeches of Israeli Defense Minister Avidor Lieberman, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir and Foreign Minister of Turkey Mevlut Cavusoglu were very similar. Although the anti-Iranian rhetoric of Mevlut Cavusoglu was somewhat milder and more diplomatic.

Mr. Lieberman called for a dialogue between Israel and the Sunni Arab states for cooperative action against Iran. "The world is not divided into Jews and Muslims or to Israelis and Palestinians, but to extremist forces and moderate forces. For the first time since 1948, the moderate Sunni Arab world understands that the threat does not come from Jews or Zionism, but from Iran, "the Israeli Defense Minister stressed.

Analysts ask the question: What is the White House's plan regarding Israel and Saudi Arabia - is it a situational improvisation or a strategic plan? Perhaps, both. As for President Trump with his unpredictability and impulsiveness, it is, in all likelihood, in his performance – improvisation, but well-prepared by the senior adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who has strong personal and business ties with Israel's elite. Moreover, apparently, in the preparation of the impromptu, a large, if not the main, role was played by powerful forces - the Israeli and Saudi lobby, active in Washington and having a significant impact on US policy. And in this case they worked in close cooperation. After all, the contacts between Tel Aviv and Riyadh are not a secret for anyone.

Thus, the situation in Syria, and indeed throughout the Middle East is still extremely confusing and dramatic.

It should be noted that most of the countries participating in the Syrian war are trying to conduct their own campaign. Turks prefer to fight only with Kurds, Americans - only with ISIS, Kurds need to acquire their own state, Russians - to show the whole world that Russia has again become a world power.

A single flap of butterfly wings can cause a tornado - this is the popular explanation of the point of the Chaos Theory. Perhaps today it can most effectively describe the difficult situation in Syria. In the end, today, the US military unexpectedly for themselves ended up on both sides of the new, now Kurdish-Turkish front. In the tactical change of alliances in Syria, the Kurds hoped to beat everyone. But it looks like they raised their stakes too much.

Their relationship with the United States has also deteriorated sharply. In fact, they are America's closest allies in the fight against ISIS, however, taking control of their own territory, they did not move to El-Rakkah contrary to the agreement with the US, but in the opposite direction. Kurds occupied the Arab city of Manbij, previously captured by ISIS. The next step was going to be to Jarablus, located in the north.

From the point of view of Ankara, any further movement of Kurds to the west of the Euphrates is the intersection of the red line. This position is also fixed in the name of the Turkish operation "Euphrates Shield." The United States is also not interested to the Kurds to continue to take the Arab cities. "We put a limit on the advance of the Kurds to the North," the Wall Street Journal quoted a source in the US government. "While they are interested in at least minimal support from our side, I think this will be a serious enough means of pressure."

The tragic history repeats itself; The PKK allows the Syrian regime to use itself, after which it is allowed to flow. For many years, the father and predecessor of Bashar Hafez did not prevent the PKK from finding a place in the Beqaa Valley on the territory of Lebanon, in fact, occupied by the Syrian peacekeeping contingent. However, when in 1998 the Turkish tanks approached the northern border of Syria, Hafez used his Kurdish joker. The PKK had to leave its camps, and after many wanderings Ocalan was captured by Turkish commandos in faraway Kenya ¹⁰⁸[78].

The PKK again miscalculated; Kurds wanted to use the United States and Russia in order to have their own state in the north of Syria in their fairway. Russia, for its part, used them to increase pressure on Turkey. Now, when this goal is achieved, Moscow, it seems, will leave them again to the mercy of fate.

On the other hand, the Kremlin will also fail in achieving particular success in realizing its dramatic idea: Assad refuses, even partially, to give up his power. The Russians are interested in forming an interim government led by him that would give the Russian leadership the opportunity to save face, at an appropriate moment, replace Assad with someone from Moscow generals and achieve an international consensus.

The new offensive alliance between the Turkish army and the Syrian rebels is one of the youngest situational alliances growing like mushrooms after the rain, each participant of which is pursuing its own interests. Together they turned this monstrous war into a theater of military operations, on which it is impossible to predict anything.

The Syrian operation of Turkey has two goals - to attack the "Islamic state", and to stop the advance of the Kurds, who want to take control of an entire region in the north of Syria.

The Turkish invasion of the north of the country became a milestone in the Syrian war. Neighboring Turkey for the first time directly interfered in its course. Many long-standing but difficult alliances are being reconsidered: alienation is growing between the allies, opponents are opening in each other something that brings them closer. In the days before the operation on the Turkish country roads near the border one could observe an unusual procession. Turkish forces by buses and pick-ups carried members of various insurgent groups from Idlib and Aleppo to Turkey to prepare for the offensive. They were small enough, as a rule, supported by the Pentagon detachments, such as brigades of al-Hamza and Sultan Murad or the "Front of the Levant", and not large, combat-ready formations of hard-hitting Islamists, like the former "Front of An-Nusra" ¹⁰⁹[77].

Between the troops of Assad and YPG (self-defense units of the Kurds), there were occasional shootouts. This had little effect on the local battle map, but it had a sensitive effect on the international balance of forces: air strikes forced Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to see in the Syrian ruler something useful, if not good. One high-ranking representative of the Erdogan Party (AKP) at the end of June formulated this as follows: "In the dry residue, Assad is a murderer torturing his own population. However, he does not support the autonomy of the Kurds. We feel only disgust towards each other, but in this aspect, we have a similar policy. "¹¹⁰

In addition, Assad's attack on the Kurds facilitated rapprochement on the Syrian issue between Ankara and Moscow. In 2011, Erdogan began to demand the resignation of Assad and financed some of the rebel groups; Russia is the decisive military ally of Damascus. However, the cooling between Erdogan and the West, which intensified after the coup attempt in Ankara, again makes Russia a potential partner of the Turks.

Conclusion.

Conducting a study of one of the most significant and substantial problems of our time, we can conclude some preliminary results of an absolutely unstable and non-static situation. In the era of confrontation between two superpowers USSR and USA, when the progress and evolution of the world system was dependent on it, neorealism as a theory of international relations was primarily focused on superpowers, who possess great military potential, and define rules of the game on the world arena. After the end of “Cold War” Neorealist began to pay more attention to less influential states, who had less resources. Consequently, a “Peripheral realism” emerged, the theory considering the world system from the point of view of states that are on a “periphery”. Moreover, neoclassical realism also became a significant approach of neorealism. Because ideologies of that approach acknowledges that system, factors have a significant impact on a states’ behavior. Furthermore, considering important to analyze particular qualities of progress and internal structure of states, as far as “траектория реакции” on a system calls and threats. Together with that, the idea of Security and Defense policy transformed. Nowadays, successful security and defense policy depends not only on a level of military potential, which allows to constrain the intentions of hostile states, but also on ability of state’s institutions to act effectively and provide the consolidation of society. The competitive state maintains the system of political, economic, legal, informative, psychological and pedagogical measures that are aimed at strengthening of consolidation and unity of society. Measures mentioned above also guarantee the ability and willingness of state and nation to defense from aggression at a high level of mobilization of all available resources to repeal military (traditional) and non-military threats (asymmetric) ПРОВЕРИТЬ ТРАДИЦИОННЫЕ/НЕТРАДИЦИОННЫЕ threats (terrorism and transnational crime).

Concerning the study of conflict in a world system, we can state that conception of war and armed conflicts also changed, due to development and evolution of military thought and progress in technology. The concept of “Hybrid war” became a reflection of a changing image of war in a XXI century. This new concept unites such approaches, as: 1) ТИПЫ ГИБРИДНОЙ ВОЙНЫ. Given concept allows to look at the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts in a new way, particularly at the nature of conflict in Syria, for the reason that the concept of “Hybrid war” focuses on new features of conflicts of the last decades. There are few features of “Hybrid wars”, one of them is “multimodality”, which incorporates involvement of states and non- states actors at the same time, and their cooperation. Particularly in Syria, there are several actors that are involved in hostilities, such as: regular army, Alawite military group “Shabiha”, militia units united in National Defense Forces, and military groups of “Hezbollah”. The main ally of Syrian Arab Republic is Iran; in addition to the supply of weapons, they are also sending military instructors to Syria and limited contingent from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Up until 2011 the Russian Federation was also the Syrian supplier of weapons and was sending military advisors there. However, since September 2015 Russian Airspace Forces (VKS) and Russian Special Forces assist the government in the struggle with various opposition groups, Islamists, and with allied states. Opposition forces and Islamists that are fighting against the ruling regime are represented by various groups, that are exempt if IS does not have precise structure, organization and hierarchy. For instance, Free Syrian Army acts based on umbrella pattern, uniting in itself wide range of different groups. Military Instructors of Great Britain and USA also teaching opposition forces, as well as these countries also supplying FSA with weapons and ammunition. Turkey assists Turkic military units based in the north of the country, including artillery and aviation support. In the meantime, Israel frequently strikes the Syrian territory under the justification of fight with “Hezbollah”. Additionally, Kurdish armed units are involved in Syrian conflict; they are fighting with Islamists and Pro- Turkish forces, as at this level their interests match with the pro-government coalition. Consequently, based on involvement of various actors, the conflict has different levels: global (USA and Russian Federation), regional (Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Kurds) and domestic (government forces, opposition, FSA etc.)

Moreover, “Hybrid warfare” is also applied to unconventional actors in Syrian conflict. Although, the majority of them has precise organizational structure (for e.g. Daish, “Hezbollah”), on the battlefield they are more likely networked, partisan connections, acting with a maximum autonomy and using terrain. Such parties can easily merge with locals. They can also apply using of modern MANPAD (man- portable air- defense system) systems as well as ATGW (Anti- tank guided weapon) with machete and self- made missiles. It is also important to note, that such groups can actively apply modern information technologies for information and ideological warfare, fund-raising and recruiting new combatants. Likewise, another important feature is that unconventional actors can apply terrorist and criminal acts on the battlefield: from the begging of Syrian conflict various groups applying terror, massacres and excessive violence to civilians and representatives of warring parties.

Consequently, participation of unconventional forces entails a number of significant problems. For the first, they are not burden with written and non-written rules and norms of warfare, with allows them to conduct overt crimes openly, and use of terrorist methods against regular or irregular groups. Besides that, governments often use such unconventional actors to realize their own interests on territory of enemy state, for that reason they supplying such groups with modern weapons, which in turn leading to high mortality equal to interstate confrontations. By the beginning of year 2017, the number of victims in the Syrian conflict (according to different estimations) varied between 250 and 500 thousands of people. In addition, non- governmental actors can follow their own interest in particular conflict, for that reason conflict resolution becomes more complicates in current states of affairs.

In the context of Hybrid war, the confrontation is not only on the battlefield but also in the information space. From the beginning of the conflict inside of Syria, the information war has started both at the regional and global levels. In the year 2011, Syrian crisis has started as a manifestation of “Arab spring”, but due to enormous numbers of intrastate contradictions, this gradually flowed into a full-scale armed conflict, with involvement of both regional and global actors, who at that time were sought to implement their own interests on the Middle East through timely support of different sides of conflict. By analyzing events in period from Spring 2011 to May 2017 through the conception of “Hybrid wars” we can state that all the features mentioned above are intrinsic to this particular type of conflict, thus it proves the relevance of applied concept.

When we completed this study (the end of May 2017), the fact that NATO wanted to implement a military operation in Syria appeared. At that time, at the G7 Summit it was sad that this ‘tragic crisis’ can only be resolved by political decision, leaders of G7 noted that states that can influence on Bashar Assad- Russian Federation and Iran – must use those mechanisms”. http://www.dialog.ua/news/120287_1495907159.

According to informed sources, Russia has prepared nearly 60 thousand military personnel, mainly of Sunni Muslims from North Caucasian Republic, for their following placement in Syria. The first part of the force already serves as a police officers in Aleppo, and a Muslim battalion TURAN is already formed in the east of Vadi Barada valley near Palmira. According to Business Insider report, Moscow has started to increase their role in Syria. There is also evidence of the expansion of Russian military bases, simultaneously the number of private military companies that are fighting under the name of Kremlin, is also increasing. It is also noted, that the most important fact is that Putin is sending a significant number of units from Chechnya and Ingushetia to Syria, in order to get rid of militants.

The question is that the present force task must implement military and police goal on territory control. Which is logical because Assad no longer has an army, and if the task is to squeeze out Iranians and mercenaries, they have to be replaced. However, the problem in face of ISIS remains the same. Including the problem of other zones – Turkish and American. Division of Syria does not resolve contradictions that lead to the Civil war. Consequently, reasons for continuation of the Civil war exist, meaning that there would be a need in the number of troops – fort the counter of new external threats from other zones. Well then, there will be required new alliances, outlines of which are already visible. Therefore, it will be endless, because the involved sides of the conflict have different views of the future, different goals, and use different methods.

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1 "Президент России." Президент России. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://static.kremlin.ru/.

2 Клаузевиц К. О войне/ К. Клаузевиц. –М.: Наука, 1999.-400 С.

3 http://war_peace_terms.academic.ru

4 http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/files/41d527556bec8deb3530.pdf -

5 Williams, Paul. Security studies: an introduction. London: Routledge, 2013.

6 Frank G. Hoffman. "Potomac Institute for Policy Studies." Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.potomacinstitute.org/.

CONFLICT IN THE. 21ST CENTURY: THE RISE OF HYBRID WARS

7 Цыганков П.А. «Гибридные войны» в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века. / Под ред. ПА. Цыганкова. –М: Издательство Московского университета, 2015

8 Advertisement. Russia in Global Affairs.

9 Advertisement. http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=6876.

10 Advertisement. Russian International Affairs Council. Accessed June 10, 2017. http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=6866.

11 Ibid

12 Ibid

13 Carr, Edward Hallett. Twenty years crisis: 1919-1939: an introduction to the study of international relations. New York, NY: Perennial, 2001.

14 Конышев В.Н. Американский неореализм о природе войны: эволюция политической теории/ В.Н. Конышев. –СПб.:«Наука», 2004. -373 С

15 Morgenthau, Hans J. A new foreign policy for the United States. London: Pall Mall Press, 1969.

16 Ibid

17 Ibid

18 Morgenthau, Hans J. A new foreign policy for the United States. London: Pall Mall Press, 1969

19 JERVIS, ROBERT. Perception and misperception in international politics. Place of publication not identified: PRINCETON University PRES, 2017.

20 Morgenthau, Hans J. Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace. Boston: McGraw-Hill Higher Education, 2006.

21 Конышев В.Н. Американский неореализм о природе войны: эволюция политической теории/ В.Н. Конышев. –СПб.:«Наука», 2004. -373 С.

22 Ibid

23 Конышев В.Н. Американский неореализм о природе войны: эволюция политической теории/ В.Н. Конышев. –СПб.:«Наука», 2004. -373 С.

24 Waltz K. Realist thought and neorealist theory// Rothstein R. The evolution of theory in international relations. –Columbia: University of South California Press, 1991.

25 Конышев В.Н. Американский неореализм о природе войны: эволюция политической теории/ В.Н. Конышев. –СПб.:«Наука», 2004.

26 Ibid

27 Administrator, and Ilya Bykov. - - . . Accessed June 10, 2017. http://www.politex.info/content/view/760/30.

28 Конышев В.Н. Американский неореализм о природе войны: эволюция политической теории/ В.Н. Конышев. –СПб.:«Наука»,

29 Williams, Paul. Security studies: an introduction. London: Routledge, 2013.

30 Ibid

31 Ibid

32 "Mearsheimer, J.J. (2001). The tragedy of great power ..." Accessed June 10, 2017. https://www.bing.com/cr?IG=5F40106879F8492B81126003B9524A94&CID=21C04A03B8E967540405409DB9EF6670&rd=1&h=UaUSuzKq4JAM2rqMe_box3ESvjRVmYJ0J6nyIGxpocw&v=1&r=https%3a%2f%2fsamuelbhfauredotcom.files.wordpress.com%2f2015%2f10%2fs2-mearsheimer-2001.pdf&p=DevEx,5061.1

33 "Mearsheimer, J.J. (2001). The tragedy of great power ..." Accessed June 10, 2017. https://www.bing.com/cr?IG=5F40106879F8492B81126003B9524A94&CID=21C04A03B8E967540405409DB9EF6670&rd=1&h=UaUSuzKq4JAM2rqMe_box3ESvjRVmYJ0J6nyIGxpocw&v=1&r=https%3a%2f%2fsamuelbhfauredotcom.files.wordpress.com%2f2015%2f10%2fs2-mearsheimer-2001.pdf&p=DevEx,5061.1.

34 Государства «третьего мира» в концепциях неореалистов. Accessed June 10, 2017. http://all-politologija.ru/knigi/amerikanskij-neorealizm-o-prirode-vojny-evolyuciya-politicheskoj-teorii-konyshev/gosudarstva-tretego-mira-v-koncepciyax-neorealistov.

35 Ibid

36 Государства «третьего мира» в концепциях неореалистов. Accessed June 10, 2017. http://all-politologija.ru/knigi/amerikanskij-neorealizm-o-prirode-vojny-evolyuciya-politicheskoj-teorii-konyshev/gosudarstva-tretego-mira-v-koncepciyax-neorealistov.

37 Accessed June 11, 2017. http://konservatizm.org/konservatizm/geopolitika/010312081336.xhtml.

38 Ibid

39 Государства «третьего мира» в концепциях неореалистов. Accessed June 10, 2017. http://all-politologija.ru/knigi/amerikanskij-neorealizm-o-prirode-vojny-evolyuciya-politicheskoj-teorii-konyshev/gosudarstva-tretego-mira-v-koncepciyax-neorealistov.

40 Advertisement. http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=6876.

41 Ibid

42 Ibid

43 Advertisement. http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=6876.

44 Ibid

45 Белозёров В.К. Военная доктрина РФ о противодействии «гибридным войнам». / В.К. Белозёров // «Гибридные войны» в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века ./ под ред. П.А.Цыганкова. –М.: Издательство Московского университета, 2015. С. 307 -335.

46 Carter, Ashton B., and William J. Perry. Preventive defense: a new security strategy for America. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1999.

47 Белозёров В.К. Военная доктрина РФ о противодействии «гибридным войнам». / В.К. Белозёров // «Гибридные войны» в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века ./ под ред. П.А.Цыганкова. –М.: Издательство

48 Ibid

49 Fantast. "Меняющееся лицо войны: четвертое поколение." Военное обозрение. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://topwar.ru/22781-menyayuscheesya-lico-voyny-chetvertoe-pokolenie.html.

50 Fantast. "Меняющееся лицо войны: четвертое поколение." Военное обозрение. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://topwar.ru/22781-menyayuscheesya-lico-voyny-chetvertoe-pokolenie.html.

51 Ibid

52 Ibid

53 Ibid

54 Fantast. "Меняющееся лицо войны: четвертое поколение." Военное обозрение. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://topwar.ru/22781-menyayuscheesya-lico-voyny-chetvertoe-pokolenie.html.

55 Advertisement. http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=6876.

56 Frank G. Hoffman. "Potomac Institute for Policy Studies." Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.potomacinstitute.org/.

CONFLICT IN THE. 21ST CENTURY: THE RISE OF HYBRID WARS

57 Ibid

58 Гриняев С.Н. Информационная война в Сирии. Анализ, оценки, тенденции. / С.Н. Гриняев. -М.: АНО ЦСОиП, 2016. -248 C.

59 Ibid

60 "Идеалният провал - lubamanolova.info." Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.bing.com/cr?IG=FD705C08DB7B48709E8FB062E2A63B57&CID=21AF71C89A4069EE109B7B569B4668A1&rd=1&h=d8tCGwk2ZqqU9lJmqt9iEML_norLl7EEg4K0ZoyN6Hc&v=1&r=http%3a%2f%2flubamanolova.info%2fspisanie-geopolitika%2f1904-idealniyat-proval-&p=DevEx,5036.1.

61 Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. Unrestricted Warfare.

62 Frank G. Hoffman. "Potomac Institute for Policy Studies." Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.potomacinstitute.org/.

CONFLICT IN THE. 21ST CENTURY: THE RISE OF HYBRID WARS

63 Ibid

64 Володенков С.В. Информационное противоборство. / С.В. Володенков // «Гибридные войны» в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века./ под ред. П.А. Цыганкова. –М.: Издательство Московского университета, 2015. -С. 187 -207.

65 "Пентагон создает кибервойска." Независимая. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://nvo.ng.ru/forces/2009-12-11/14_kibervoiska.html.

66 Ibid

67 Володенков С.В. Информационное противоборство. / С.В. Володенков // «Гибридные войны» в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века./ под ред. П.А. Цыганкова. –М.: Издательство Московского университета, 2015. -С. 187 -207.

68 "Клаузевиц и современные войны." Главная. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://vpk-news.ru/articles/703.

69 Frank G. Hoffman. "Potomac Institute for Policy Studies." Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.potomacinstitute.org/.

CONFLICT IN THE. 21ST CENTURY: THE RISE OF HYBRID WARS

70 Ibid

71 Ibid

72 Frank G. Hoffman. "Potomac Institute for Policy Studies." Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.potomacinstitute.org/.

CONFLICT IN THE. 21ST CENTURY: THE RISE OF HYBRID WARS

73 Ibid

74http://www.defence.gov.au/ADC/publications/Occasional/PublcnsOccasional_310310_FromtheLongPeace.pdf.

75 Ibid

76 Accessed June 11, 2017. http://mir-politika.ru/13626-gibridnaya-voyna-v-stepyah-ukrainy-kto-sdelal-pervyy-vystrel.html.

77 Соловьёв А.В. «Гибридная война»: настоящее и будущее неологизма. / А.В. Соловьёв // «Гибридные войны»в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века./ под ред. П.А. Цыганкова. –М.: Издательство Московского университета, 2015. -С. 68 -88.

78 "Гибридные войны будущего – прогнозирование и планирование." Независимая. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-12-19/1_war.html.

79 Манойло А.В. Технологии «цветных революций» в «гибридных войнах»./ А.В. Манойло // «Гибридные войны» в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века. / под ред. П.А. Цыганкова. –М.: Издательство Московского университета, 2015.-С. 259 –271.

80 Ibid

81 "Дополнительный протокол к Женевским конвенциям от 12 августа 1949 года, касающийся защиты жертв немеждународных вооруженных конфликтов (Протокол II). Женева, 8 июня 1977 года." MKKK. June 08, 1977. Accessed June 11, 2017. https://www.icrc.org/rus/resources/documents/misc/6lkb3l.htm.

82 ""Гибридные войны" в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века [Текст ..." Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.bing.com/cr?IG=98FB4E8D741A498D9766E2A010D887B1&CID=191399F5280062232E40936B29066382&rd=1&h=v_ssVxepgisY_g5nnjgoqvO32glWhasSNM0ShuW-dj0&v=1&r=http%3a%2f%2fsearch.rsl.ru%2fru%2frecord%2f01008096000&p=DevEx,5034.1.

83 "U.S. Army Special Operations Command Counter-Unconventional Warfare White Paper." Public Intelligence. Accessed June 11, 2017. https://publicintelligence.net/usasoc-counter-unconventional-warfare/.

84 ""Гибридные войны" в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века [Текст ..." Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.bing.com/cr?IG=98FB4E8D741A498D9766E2A010D887B1&CID=191399F5280062232E40936B29066382&rd=1&h=v_ssVxepgisY_g5nnjgoqvO32glWhasSNM0ShuW-dj0&v=1&r=http%3a%2f%2fsearch.rsl.ru%2fru%2frecord%2f01008096000&p=DevEx,5034.1

85 Ibid

86 Ibid

87 Ibid

88 ""Гибридные войны" в хаотизирующемся мире XXI века [Текст ..." Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.bing.com/cr?IG=98FB4E8D741A498D9766E2A010D887B1&CID=191399F5280062232E40936B29066382&rd=1&h=v_ssVxepgisY_g5nnjgoqvO32glWhasSNM0ShuW-dj0&v=1&r=http%3a%2f%2fsearch.rsl.ru%2fru%2frecord%2f01008096000&p=DevEx,5034.1

89 "70-я сессия Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН." Президент России. September 28, 2015. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385.

90 Syria Demographics Profile 2016. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.indexmundi.com/syria/demographics_profile.html.

91 Фарід Закарія Політолог, експерт в області міжнародних відносин, ведучий CNN. "Фарід Закарія: Як Саудівська Аравія переграла Трампа." Фарід Закарія: Як Саудівська Аравія переграла Трампа / Новое Время. May 26, 2017. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://nv.ua/ukr/opinion/zakaria/jak-saudivska-aravija-peregrala-trampa-1211273.html.

92 "Политические экстремистские движения на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке." РСМД. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://russiancouncil.ru/extremism-mena#hezbollah.

93 Ibid

94 Interfax.ru. December 20, 2015. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.interfax.ru/world/486018.

95 "Washington Post: National, World & D.C. Area News and Headlines." The Washington Post. Accessed June 11, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/.

96 Федякина, Анна. "Евгений Сатановский: Будущее Сирии определится через несколько лет." Российская газета. October 15, 2015. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://rg.ru/2015/10/16/satanovski.html.

97 Walter Russell Mead & Harry Zieve Cohen. "The Eight Great Powers of 2016: Iran Joins the Club." The American Interest The Eight Great Powers of 2016 Iran Joins the Club Comments. Accessed June 11, 2017. https://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/01/26/the-eight-great-powers-of-2016-iran-joins-the-club/.

98 К, Ник. "Война в Сирии и Ираке - Подробная история двух самых кровавых ближневосточных конфликтов с 2003 года до наших дней." TJournal. October 22, 2015. Accessed June 11, 2017. https://tjournal.ru/p/explaining-syria-and-iraq.

99 Ibid

100 К, Ник. "Война в Сирии и Ираке - Подробная история двух самых кровавых ближневосточных конфликтов с 2003 года до наших дней." TJournal. October 22, 2015. Accessed June 11, 2017. https://tjournal.ru/p/explaining-syria-and-iraq.

101 "Политические экстремистские движения на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке." РСМД. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://russiancouncil.ru/extremism-mena#hezbollah.

102 CIA begins weapons delivery to Syrian rebels. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/cia-begins-weapons-delivery-63to-syrian-rebels/2013/09/11/9fcf2ed8-1b0c-11e3-a628-7e6dde8f889d_story.

103 Ibid

104 Федякина, Анна. "Евгений Сатановский: Будущее Сирии определится через несколько лет." Российская газета. October 15, 2015. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://rg.ru/2015/10/16/satanovski.html.

105 CIA begins weapons delivery to Syrian rebels. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/cia-begins-weapons-delivery-63to-syrian-rebels/2013/09/11/9fcf2ed8-1b0c-11e3-a628-7e6dde8f889d_story.

106 "Изменчивые союзы в Сирии и восхищение России «Хезболлой»." ИноСМИ.Ru. January 16, 2017. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://inosmi.ru/military/20170115/238528779.html.

107 "Геополитика и геоэкономика войны в Сирии: игроки, интересы, стратегии." ХВИЛЯ. Accessed June 11, 2017. http://hvylya.net/analytics/geopolitics/geopolitika-i-geoekonomika-voynyi-v-sirii-igroki-interesyi-strategii.html.

108 "Сирия à la carte." Журнал «ПРОФИЛЬ». Accessed June 11, 2017. http://www.profile.ru/politika/item/110075-siriya-la-carte.

109 "Противоестественные союзы." Пётр и Мазепа. Accessed June 11, 2017. https://petrimazepa.com/nottrueembrace.

110 Противоестественные союзы." Пётр и Мазепа. Accessed June 11, 2017. https://petrimazepa.com/nottrueembrace.