2. Russian economics. Economic indicators

Russia is a high income, large-sized economy located in The Former Soviet Republic..

In 2012 Russia's GDP was USD 2,030 billion. Russia's GDP grew at 3.40% in 2012. GDP per capita, in purchasing power-adjusted dollar terms, is USD 17,518.

Inflation in Russia, as measured by the change in consumer price index, was 5.07% in 2012, versus 8.44% in 2011. Unemployment in Russia in 2012 was 6.00%, versus 6.50% in 2011.

Russia's economy is predominantly services-based. Agriculture accounts for 4.25% of GDP and employs 9.70% of the population. Manufacturing and industry accounts for 37.00% of GDP and employs 27.90% of the population. Services accounts for 43.37% of the GDP and employs 34.60% of the population. Russia’s total exports in 2012 were USD 524.56 billion while its total imports were USD315.99 billion.

Russia's government revenues are 38.36% of GDP while its government spending is 36.80% of GDP. Thus Russia's government runs a surplus of 1.91% of GDP. Net government debt is n.a. of GDP.

Russia's currency is the Russian Rouble (RUB). The latest exchange rate, as of 13-Dec-2013, is 32.76 RUB per 1 USD.

Economic indicators of Russia

The main economic indicators are GDP, unemployment level, industrial production, foreign trade and monetary policy.

GDP
Actual: 1.2% Previous: 1.6%

Russia’s economic growth decelerated for the fifth straight quarter in the second quarter, as fixed investment contracted on an annual basis and private consumption growth slowed. GDP grew just 1.2% y/y in the three months to June, down from 1.6% in the first quarter. Despite the prolonged slowdown, Russia’s central bank has been putting off monetary easing, since inflation has remained outside of the target range. But a fall in interest rates alone may not be enough of a stimulus—deeper structural changes are needed to revive Russia’s growth. 

Unemployment
Actual: 5.4% Previous: 5.5%

Russia's unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in November on a not seasonally adjusted basis, after climbing for the previous two months. The number of people out of work was unchanged at 4.1 million. The unemployment rate in Russia remains low despite the economy being nearly stagnated. Given the government's promise to relax the pressure it puts on companies to keep workers on their payrolls and the muted economic outlook for 2014, the unemployment rate will likely rise in coming months. 

Industrial Production

Actual: -1.00% Previous: -0.10%

Russia's industrial output shrank 1% y/y in November, after contracting 0.1% a month earlier. The substantial decline in the utilities sector output, together with slower expansion of the extraction sector output caused by deteriorating business confidence in extraction and lower international oil prices, weighed on industrial production. In November, the Rosstat business confidence gauges for manufacturing and extraction fell for the third straight month and Russian manufacturing PMI slid into contractionary territory, pointing to a grim outlook for Russian industry. 

Foreign Trade

Actual: US$13.2 bil   Previous: US$15.7 bil

Russia’s merchandise trade surplus amounted to $13.2 billion in October, retreating somewhat from the previous month. The main driver was a drop in exports to non-CIS countries. Meanwhile, imports declined as well but at a slower pace than exports. Recovery in the euro zone and a strong Chinese economy will likely support the Russian trade surplus over the coming months, though a slowdown in the growth of oil prices may weigh on it. 

Monetary Policy
Actual: 5.50% Previous: 5.50%

Russia's central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 5.5% for the fourth straight month in December. The decision was mainly prompted by annual consumer price inflation accelerating for the second straight month in November, to 6.5%. Russia's economic performance was mixed in October; industrial output shrank marginally on an annual basis but retail sales expanded faster in year-ago terms. Despite the conservative monetary policy, consumer price inflation in 2013 will likely slightly overshoot the central bank's target range of 5% to 6%.