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Fears of a Hard Landing

China is routinely accused of exporting too much. Its foreign sales far exceed its foreign purchases. This chronic surplus angers many.

But this month brought two intriguing breaks to the routine. In March three of China's biggest trading partners ─ Japan, the EU and America ─ complained that China was exporting too little. They brought a case at the WTO alleging that China was unfairly restricting its exports of molybdenum and 17 "rare earths" used in the manufacture of many high-tech goods.

The other novelty arrived when China's customs bureau reported a Chinese trade deficit. At $315 billion in February, the imbalance was bigger than any deficit on record — it was bigger even than many of China's monthly surpluses.

The deficit has fuelled one fear and one hope. The fear is that China's economy will slow sharply, hobbled by declining exports to crisis-racked Europe and a rising bill for commodities. The hope is that China is rebalancing, moving away from an economic model reliant on foreign demand.

It is true that China's weak exports are contributing to a slowdown in the broader economy. China's industrial production grew by 11.4% in January and February, compared with 2010, much slower than its normal pace of about 15%. But the prospects for global growth are brightening, suggesting that China's exports have bottomed out. And the slowdown in China's economy has been matched by a helpful fall in inflation. That gives China's government some scope to stimulate demand.

The Economist, March 2012

Vocabulary

1. hard landing – резкое снижение темпов экономического роста

2. soft landing – постепенное замедление темпов экономического роста

3. rare earths – редкоземельные элементы

4. to bottom out – начинать расти (после падения), вступать в фазу оживления (после экономического спада)

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China Dispute Hits Japanese Exports

Japan suffered another sharp decline in exports to China in November, reflecting a slowdown in Chinese growth and the lingering damage of a territorial dispute.

Falling exports to China helped push the trade deficit to Y953.4bn ($11.3bn), the third-largest monthly deficit in more than three decades, and the fifth consecutive decline. The trade deficit for this year is on course to be an annual record, given that the cumulative deficit in the year to date is Y6.8tn. The record trade deficit so far was the Y2.6tn posted in 1980.

The deteriorating trade balance will put pressure on Shinzo Abe, Japan’s incoming prime minister, to fulfil his campaign promises to reflate the economy, weaken the Japanese currency and return the country to a growth path. Mr Abe has vowed to tackle the yen’s strength, which hurts Japanese exporters’ competitiveness and decreases their overseas profits. But Junko Nishioka, an economist at RBS, said a weaker yen, while boosting exports, would make imports more expensive, hurting the trade balance.

Japanese exports have suffered from a persistently strong yen since 2007, while imports have risen in part due to the shift from nuclear energy to fossil fuels, which Japan must buy from overseas, following the Fukushima disaster.

Exports to China fell 14.5 per cent to Y859bn, in the second consecutive double-digit monthly decline. The impact of the Chinese slowdown was reflected in the 75 per cent drop in exports of construction and mining equipment, while that of the territorial dispute appears to have been a factor behind the 69 per cent drop in vehicle exports to China.

By contrast, exports to the US rose 5.3 per cent, making it the leading destination of Japanese goods for the month. Exports to the US have risen consecutively for the past 13 months. Japanese exports to the EU have fallen for the past 14 months, with products such as vehicles and construction machinery suffering the largest declines.

Analysts expect a gradual recovery in Japanese exports in the new year, as global demand improves.

The Financial Times, December 2012.