Appendix 4. Var Results

Sample: 1995:01 2000:06

Included observations: 66

Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]

DLOG(CPI)

DLOG (EXRATE)

GBAL

DLOG (MA_CLG)

DLOG (MBASE)

DLOG(CPI(-1))

0.583690

-0.689619

-1885.645

0.699626

0.668665

(0.12919)

(0.32786)

(2108.28)

(0.31919)

(0.37036)

[ 4.51800]

[-2.10339]

[-0.89440]

[ 2.19187]

[ 1.80543]

DLOG(CPI(-2))

0.103697

0.455499

1407.466

-0.184807

-0.282562

(0.07824)

(0.19857)

(1276.87)

(0.19332)

(0.22431)

[ 1.32530]

[ 2.29394]

[ 1.10228]

[-0.95598]

[-1.25971]

DLOG(EXRATE(-1))

0.108056

0.314781

1859.440

-0.286640

0.039956

(0.06424)

(0.16302)

(1048.29)

(0.15871)

(0.18415)

[ 1.68214]

[ 1.93093]

[ 1.77378]

[-1.80606]

[ 0.21697]

DLOG(EXRATE(-2))

-0.064766

-0.039316

-199.7765

-0.222767

-0.239024

(0.04960)

(0.12587)

(809.404)

(0.12254)

(0.14219)

[-1.30580]

[-0.31235]

[-0.24682]

[-1.81787]

[-1.68104]

GBAL(-1)

-1.19E-05

1.02E-05

-0.069737

4.62E-06

6.17E-05

(9.9E-06)

(2.5E-05)

(0.16226)

(2.5E-05)

(2.9E-05)

[-1.19291]

[ 0.40444]

[-0.42978]

[ 0.18822]

[ 2.16499]

GBAL(-2)

-4.08E-06

1.37E-05

-0.058172

5.42E-05

6.04E-05

(9.7E-06)

(2.5E-05)

(0.15871)

(2.4E-05)

(2.8E-05)

[-0.41983]

[ 0.55611]

[-0.36652]

[ 2.25412]

[ 2.16782]

DLOG(MA_CLG(-1))

-0.084799

0.497553

-296.9982

0.155333

0.110526

(0.05546)

(0.14073)

(904.979)

(0.13701)

(0.15898)

[-1.52913]

[ 3.53541]

[-0.32818]

[ 1.13371]

[ 0.69523]

DLOG(MA_CLG(-2))

0.149116

0.056955

-360.0961

0.455314

0.055961

(0.06115)

(0.15519)

(997.945)

(0.15109)

(0.17531)

[ 2.43842]

[ 0.36700]

[-0.36084]

[ 3.01357]

[ 0.31921]

DLOG(MBASE(-1))

-0.025603

-0.190145

-303.5398

-0.092044

0.136986

(0.05596)

(0.14200)

(913.135)

(0.13825)

(0.16041)

[-0.45756]

[-1.33903]

[-0.33242]

[-0.66579]

[ 0.85397]

DLOG(MBASE(-2))

0.013424

-0.005419

849.8445

-0.025497

0.181670

(0.04774)

(0.12116)

(779.117)

(0.11796)

(0.13687)

[ 0.28117]

[-0.04473]

[ 1.09078]

[-0.21615]

[ 1.32733]

C

-0.001123

0.012405

-317.8943

0.033497

0.042078

(0.00479)

(0.01216)

(78.2028)

(0.01184)

(0.01374)

[-0.23441]

[ 1.02004]

[-4.06500]

[ 2.82921]

[ 3.06290]

R-squared

0.831333

0.381905

0.202790

0.369665

0.295468

F-statistic

24.15124

3.027579

0.561372

2.873639

2.054974

Akaike AIC

-5.022012

-3.159435

14.37815

-3.213030

-2.915645

Schwarz SC

-4.638049

-2.775472

14.76212

-2.829066

-2.531682

Mean dependent

0.030375

0.026367

-259.3232

0.043953

0.034385

S.D. dependent

0.040157

0.053236

284.1327

0.051322

0.056327