- •1. Introduction 4
- •2. Theoretical Links 5
- •Introduction
- •Theoretical Links
- •Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand Analysis
- •Sources of Financing and Money Decomposition
- •Accumulation of arrears.
- •Borrowing From the Central Bank
- •Borrowing From the Public
- •Running Down Foreign Exchange Reserves
- •Accumulation of Arrears
- •Specific Theoretical Hypotheses
- •Olivera-Tanzi Effect
- •Deferred Inflation Effect
- •New Fiscal Theory of Price Level
- •Closing Remarks
- •Developments
- •Definitions
- •Dynamics
- •Financing
- •Direct nbu financing
- •External Financing
- •Inflation Performance
- •Empirical Analysis
- •Methodology
- •Regression Results
- •Policy Implications
- •Conclusions
- •References
- •Appendix 2. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests Results
- •Appendix 3. Granger Causality Tests
- •Appendix 4. Var Results
- •Appendix 5. Stability of var scheme
- •Appendix 6 Cross Correlations Cross Correlation of Inflation and Government Balance
- •Correlations for Contemporaneous Values of Variables Examined
-
References
Banaian, King, Bolgarin, Igor, and Georges de Menil, 1998, “Inflation and Money in Ukraine,” Delta Working Paper No. 198-06, 14 pp.
Barro, Robert J., 1989, “The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits“, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.3, Spring
Blanchard, Olivier, and D. Quah, 1989, “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances”, American Economic Review 79.
Carzoneri, M., Cumby, R., and B. Diba, 1998, “Is the Price Level determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?”, NBER Working Paper #6471
Chu, Ke-Young and Richard Hemming, eds., 1991, Public Expenditure Handbook, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund
de Menil Georges, 1997, “The volatile relationship between deficits and inflation in Ukraine, 1992-1996,” Economics of Transition, Vol. 5(2), pp. 485-497.
Dornbusch, Rudiger, Fischer, Stanley and Richard Startz, 1998, Macroeconomics. –7th ed., Boston-Dubuque-Madison-New York: Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Fiscal Policy and New Instruments of Budget Deficit Financing in Ukraine, 1999, HIID Working Paper
Granger, C. W. .J. 1969, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods,” Econometrica, 37, 424–438.
Komulainen, Tuomas, and Jukka Pirttila, 2000, “Fiscal Explanation for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies”, BOFIT Discussion Papers #11.
Markiewicz , Malgorzata, 1998, “Interrelations between monetary and fiscal policy in Ukraine”, HIID/CASE Working Papers
Mishkin, Frederic S. 2000, The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Boston - San-Francisco – New York: Addison Wesley
Open Budget 1999 for Ukraine, 1999, ed. A. Gonciarz et al.,UEPLAC, ICPS, Institute of Reforms.
Ouanes, Abdessatar and Subhash Thakur, 1997, Macroeconomic Accounting and Analysis in Transition Economies, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund
Pindyck, Robert S., and Daniel L. Rubinfeld, 1998, Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 4th edition, McGraw-Hill.
Romer, David, 1996, Advanced Macroeconomics. New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc
Sachs, Jeffrey D. and Felipe Larrain, 1993, Macroeconomics in the Global Economy, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc
Sargent, Thomas and Neil Wallace, 1981, “Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Fall
Ukraine Economic Trends, UEPLAC, various issues, 1998-2000
Ukraine--Technical Memorandum, 1999, Letter of Intent of the government of Ukraine, August 26, http://www.imf.org/external/NP/LOI/1999/082699.htm
Vakhnenko, Tatiana, 2000, State Debt of the Ukraine and it’s Economical Consequences.
Walsh E. Carl, 1998, Monetary Theory and Policy. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England
Woodford, Michael, 1994, “Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy”, Economic Theory, 4, 345-380
-
Appendices
Appendix 1. Data Used in the Estimation
Stationary Series Graphs

Original Series Graphs

Summary Statistics
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
DLOG(CPI) |
DLOG(EXRATE) |
GBAL |
DLOG(MA_CLG) |
DLOG(MBASE) |
||||
|
Mean |
0.030208 |
0.025029 |
-225.5905 |
0.041290 |
0.033637 |
||||
|
Median |
0.015873 |
0.007649 |
-202.5290 |
0.026195 |
0.026617 |
||||
|
Maximum |
0.192272 |
0.289432 |
779.7972 |
0.210979 |
0.192222 |
||||
|
Minimum |
-0.010050 |
-0.031324 |
-1221.000 |
-0.061903 |
-0.077805 |
||||
|
Std. Dev. |
0.038387 |
0.051489 |
331.5991 |
0.050048 |
0.054344 |
||||
|
Skewness |
2.282945 |
2.879105 |
-0.307773 |
1.080060 |
0.669356 |
||||
|
Kurtosis |
8.818993 |
13.67761 |
5.741517 |
4.604015 |
3.688655 |
||||
|
Jarque-Bera |
150.4471 |
404.7128 |
21.71073 |
19.90719 |
6.232586 |
||||
|
Probability |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000019 |
0.000048 |
0.044321 |
||||
|
Sum |
1.993737 |
1.651902 |
-14888.98 |
2.725140 |
2.220017 |
||||
|
Sum Sq. Dev. |
0.095780 |
0.172325 |
7147269. |
0.162810 |
0.191960 |
||||
|
Observations |
66 |
66 |
66 |
66 |
66 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
CPI |
EXRATE |
MBASE |
MA_CLG |
|
||||
|
Mean |
17.87530 |
2.632824 |
6722.512 |
9857.083 |
|
||||
|
Median |
17.69375 |
1.882672 |
6668.000 |
7017.845 |
|
||||
|
Maximum |
30.86976 |
5.543100 |
14025.00 |
21525.84 |
|
||||
|
Minimum |
5.095265 |
1.172000 |
1409.196 |
1445.900 |
|
||||
|
Std. Dev. |
6.136360 |
1.323945 |
3318.025 |
6106.564 |
|
||||
|
Skewness |
-0.063575 |
1.028380 |
0.462127 |
0.564182 |
|
||||
|
Kurtosis |
2.639760 |
2.602049 |
2.266566 |
1.915644 |
|
||||
|
Jarque-Bera |
0.401335 |
12.06871 |
3.828470 |
6.734838 |
|
||||
|
Probability |
0.818184 |
0.002395 |
0.147455 |
0.034479 |
|
||||
|
Sum |
1179.770 |
173.7664 |
443685.8 |
650567.5 |
|
||||
|
Sum Sq. Dev. |
2447.569 |
113.9340 |
7.16E+08 |
2.42E+09 |
|
||||
