Добавил:
Upload Опубликованный материал нарушает ваши авторские права? Сообщите нам.
Вуз: Предмет: Файл:
Finance.docx
Скачиваний:
2
Добавлен:
01.05.2025
Размер:
364.25 Кб
Скачать

46. Investment portfolio construction: calculation and analysis of risk and return.

Investment strategy – market expectations, personal preferences, etc.

Portfolio policies:

Objectives (risk of return) – tolerance, requirements, RR tradeoff. Define liquidity, horizon, regulations, unique needs, terms of a portfolio, horizontal planning.

Sphere of investment – real estate, venture, funds.

Regulations. Tax aspects. Double taxation avoidance. Unique needs of an investor.

Policies : assets allocation (Real Estate / Cash / Currency / Metals / Bonds)

Security selection; diversification. Techniques of security. Income generation aspects – increase of portfolio price, or dividends payoff?

R = E (wi * ri) – доходность (profitability determination)

Sigma_p^2 = (w1^2 * sigma1^2) + … 2w1*w2*sigma1*sigma2*cor(r1,r2) – risk of portfolio – is determined by level of risk of each bond and by correlation between them.

In evaluating credit risk, the ultimate measure is the risk of the entire portfolio. The portfolio risk is substantially less than the sum of the stand-alone risk, due to the effect of diversification within the portfolio. The purpose of portfolio management is, however, not just to determine overall risk, but to determine how to achieve the maximal return for the risk that is being taken. Three key points emerge from portfolio analysis:

  1. The amount of diversification achievable in a portfolio depends on the correlations between default risks within the portfolio.

  2. The amount of risk contributed by any asset to the portfolio’s net diversification depends significantly on how much of the asset is held in the portfolio.

  3. Improving portfolio performance consists of including large numbers of assets and varying asset holding to bring each asset’s contribution to the portfolio risk into line with its contribution to the portfolio return.

The main thrust of portfolio theory, however, is not simply to measure risk, but also to show how, by changing the composition of the portfolio, the return and risk characteristics of the portfolio can be improved. Because expected loss and expected return are simple averages, increasing portfolio return is simple. One merely has to hold assets with higher expected returns. However, changing risk is more complicated because of diversification. Holding less risky assets reduces risk, but holding too much of any single asset increasing risk.

Portfolio theory concentrates on the expected return per unit of risk. The ratio of return to risk for a portfolio is called the Sharpe ratio (Sharpe 1994), and efficient portfolios are those with the highest attainable Sharpe ratio. Portfolio optimization refers to a variety of mathematical techniques for determining asset increases risk.

The main aspect, which has to be sold by constricting portfolio, is the spreading some amount of money to the different alternative securities in such a way as to get to your goals. Firstly investor is trying to reach the maximum profit through the difference in prices of securities, dividends, receiving fixed percentage and ext. Generally in order to create a portfolio it is possible to invest into one type of financial assets. Present practice shows that this sort of nondiversified portfolio encounters rarely. Much more common portfolio is diversified meaning with all different types of securities. For example, we have two companies first one is producing sunglasses and the other umbrellas. Investor invests half of money into Sunglasses company and other half in to umbrellas company. The result as follows:

Here are some famous models of optimal portfolios:

Markowitz model – when you interpreting statistically future profit, brought by financial instrument, as random changeable, meaning profits for separate investments accidentally changes in some limits.

Index Sharpe model – its simplifies in such way, that closest solution can be found with a less efforts. Sharpe introduced unrelated -factor, which plays special role in present portfolio theory.

Arbitraregeprais-Theorie-Modell ATP – the goal of this model is usage of price differences in securities of one or close related types for different markets or segments of markets, with a goal of receiving the profit.

Weather conditions

Profitability (Eo) for Sunglasses

Profitability (Ez) for Umbrellas

Profitability for portfolio En=0,5Eo+0,5Ez

Rainy

0

20

10

Normal

10

10

10

Sunny

20

0

10


47. Criteria of investment project valuation.

Investments can be:

  1. Obligatory

  2. FA renovative

  3. Expanding (направленные на расрасширение)

  4. New product development-targeted.

Valuation should start from CASH FLOW analysis.

Then NPV, IRR, Payback Period, Profitability Index (=NPV Inflow/NPV outflow)

Соседние файлы в предмете [НЕСОРТИРОВАННОЕ]