Chapter 3 The changes in the field of nuclear safety of Pakistan

I

Source: <http://www.pakalertpress.com/2011/10/12/next-stop-is-pakistan/> 17 March 2012

n the 1980th and the 1990th years while Pakistan builds the nuclear program, questions of nuclear safety and management weren't the main care. Everything changed after act of terrorism in the USA on September 11, 2001, the message about a meeting in the summer of 2001 of two retired Pakistan scientists, the Sultan Mahmoud of Bashiruddin and Abdoul Majid, with Osama bin Laden then was carried. Until then, concern apropos "freedoms of the nuclear weapon" and smuggling of nuclear materials were concentrated to the territory of the former Soviet Union.

Source: <http://mil.bonology.com/2011_02_02_archive.html> 17 March 2012

Pakistan existed under the threat of invasion throughout all the life. Some wars were conducted with India one of which led to the Pakistan national contentions. New doctrines of war to win and destroy Pakistan continue to be put into practice and to be carried out in India. From the middle of the 1980th years, six large military crises of different degree of intensity forced Pakistan to consider physical invasion from India, as existential threat.

After nuclear tests in 1998 the Pakistan nuclear program faced three basic needs. It was necessary to reconsider a national security policy, an institutionalization of management of the nuclear program, and also to develop reasonable strategy for reliable strategic forces. The first task demands, that Pakistan improved the device of the national security capable comprehensively to analyze policy of national security in changing conditions. This task is solved at national political level. The remained two problems are connected with the civil, military and scientific country leaders. The department of strategic plans formed in 1999, provides institutional supervision of decision-making on nuclear questions.

Source: <http://www.jaagopak.com/archives/1354> 17 March 2012

Pakistan improved the supervising procedures for military and scientific shots. Safety is improved, the reporting system for control of movement of all officials is created. Two similar programs of reliability of the personnel (by PRP and HRP), for the military and civil personnel, respectively were created.

In 2001 US Secretary of State Colin Powell offer the help of nuclear safety to the president of Pakistan to general Pervez Musharraf. The department of strategic plans attentively studied the offer, but refused transfer of technologies as it is perceived as intervention and attempt to destroy the national nuclear program. [7]

Chapter 4 The possibility of nuclear terrorism in Pakistan

The problem of nuclear disarmament in the modern world is one of the most actual. Despite a number of disturbing events, global efforts on safety still weren't rather good to prevent nuclear catastrophe. Bad news is that nuclear threat grows. And according to the former analyst of CIA of Bruce Ridel, «Pakistan is the most dangerous country in the modern world».

Source: <http://nucleardiner.com/blogs/?p=336&option=com_wordpress&Itemid=101> 17 March 2012

In the efforts on achievement of growth of Pakistan, terrorist group are most interested in creation of a fungoid cloud of nuclear explosion. Thus, terrorist groups will build a crude nuclear bomb which has low profitability and is unpredictable, inefficient and unsafe in comparison with difficult systems of the weapon in national nuclear arsenals. To resist to this qualitatively new threshold of nuclear threat, the states should provide total control of acquisition of nuclear materials. This risk raises requirements which should be placed on security measures for materials at all stages of their use, that is productions, processings, transportations and storages, in research reactors, and also on nuclear objects. The essence is that it is not enough of it to prevent bomb hit in hands of terrorists.

The Pakistan authorities solve this problem by increase of privacy of nuclear technologies. It is paradoxical, but this dependence on secret and physical safety can have unpleasant consequences in case terrorists get access to the locations of storages of the weapon, transport routes and the other classified information. [8]

Source: <http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_57974.shtml> 17 March 2012

Researches of the Harward University showed that now real danger of receiving the Pakistan warheads terrorists only grows. [9] According to the report of Institute of a science and the international security (ISIS) for September 18, 2001, instability in Pakistan can appear as the vulnerable tool used by fighters for theft of the nuclear weapon. Plus to everything, is observed negligent attitude to safety of nuclear information. At last, in case of civil war in Pakistan, can happen so that control of warehouse can appear under the threat. [10]

Thus, it is possible to draw a conclusion that threat of nuclear terrorism in Pakistan exists, but it consists not in attack on objects of nuclear production, and generally in illegal production of nuclear ammunition and cheap, but their unsafe production.