JPM_Global Asset Allocation_watermark
.pdfvk.com/id446425943
vk.com/id446425943
vk.com/id446425943
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou |
John Normand |
(44-20) 7134-7815 |
(44-20) 7134-1816 |
nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com
Marko Kolanovic, PhD (1-212) 272-1438
marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com
19 Sep. Target of $0.4/bbl and stop loss of $0/bbl. Closed the trade on 18 Oct at a loss of $0.17/bbl and 0.26% of the underlying.
Abhishek DeshpandeAC (1-212) 834-3102
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Close long Dec’19-Jan’20 ICE Brent spread at $0.34/bbl
We closed the trade as it reached our stop loss.
Abhishek DeshpandeAC (1-212) 834-3102
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Global Cross-Asset Strategy
07 December 2018
23
vk.com/id446425943
vk.com/id446425943
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou |
John Normand |
Global Cross-Asset Strategy |
(44-20) 7134-7815 |
(44-20) 7134-1816 |
07 December 2018 |
nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com
Marko Kolanovic, PhD (1-212) 272-1438
marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com
Global Economic Outlook Summary
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Real GDP |
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Real GDP |
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Consumer prices |
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% over a year ago |
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% over previous period, saar |
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% over a year ago |
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2018 |
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2019 |
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2020 |
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2Q18 |
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3Q18 |
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4Q18 |
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1Q19 |
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2Q19 |
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3Q19 |
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2Q18 |
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4Q18 |
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2Q19 |
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4Q19 |
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United States |
2.9 |
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2.4 |
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1.5 |
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4.2 |
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3.5 |
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2.5 |
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2.3 |
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2.0 |
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1.8 |
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2.6 |
2.3 |
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1.7 |
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1.8 |
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Canada |
2.1 |
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2.2 |
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1.6 |
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2.9 |
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2.0 |
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2.5 |
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2.2 |
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2.2 |
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1.9 |
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2.3 |
2.2 |
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2.1 |
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2.2 |
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Latin America |
1.2 |
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1.8 |
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2.2 |
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-1.2 |
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2.2 |
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-0.7 |
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1.9 |
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3.7 |
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3.1 |
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3.5 |
4.1 |
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4.1 |
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3.8 |
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Argentina |
-2.7 |
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-1.5 |
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2.6 |
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-15.2 |
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-0.5 |
-13.0 |
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-1.0 |
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8.0 |
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5.0 |
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27.1 |
47.4 |
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48.1 |
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27.7 |
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Brazil |
1.2 |
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2.3 |
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2.2 |
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0.7 |
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3.1 |
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0.6 |
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2.6 |
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3.2 |
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3.2 |
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3.3 |
4.2 |
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4.3 |
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4.0 |
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Chile |
3.8 |
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3.5 |
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3.0 |
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2.7 |
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1.1 |
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3.0 |
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4.0 |
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4.2 |
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4.0 |
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2.2 |
3.0 |
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3.6 |
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3.6 |
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Colombia |
2.7 |
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3.1 |
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3.1 |
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2.4 |
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0.9 |
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3.0 |
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2.8 |
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4.5 |
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3.5 |
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3.2 |
3.4 |
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3.6 |
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3.8 |
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Ecuador |
0.2 |
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-0.7 |
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-0.8 |
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1.5 |
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-2.5 |
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0.8 |
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-1.5 |
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0.0 |
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-2.0 |
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-0.8 |
0.0 |
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0.3 |
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0.5 |
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Mex ico |
2.0 |
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1.9 |
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1.7 |
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-0.4 |
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3.4 |
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1.0 |
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1.5 |
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2.0 |
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1.8 |
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4.6 |
4.6 |
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4.1 |
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3.6 |
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Peru |
4.0 |
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3.9 |
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3.6 |
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5.4 |
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1.0 |
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3.0 |
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4.5 |
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4.0 |
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4.0 |
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0.9 |
2.4 |
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2.6 |
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2.7 |
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Venezuela |
-10.0 |
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… |
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0.0 |
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0.0 |
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1.0 |
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2.0 |
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… |
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… |
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… |
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28250 |
600000 |
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.. |
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.. |
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Asia/Pacific |
4.9 |
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4.6 |
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4.5 |
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5.2 |
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3.9 |
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4.8 |
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4.6 |
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4.5 |
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5.0 |
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2.0 |
2.3 |
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2.7 |
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2.4 |
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Japan |
1.0 |
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1.2 |
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0.6 |
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3.0 |
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-1.2 |
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3.0 |
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1.5 |
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1.0 |
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2.5 |
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0.6 |
0.9 |
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0.7 |
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0.7 |
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Australia |
2.9 |
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2.5 |
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2.7 |
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3.6 |
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1.0 |
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1.9 |
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2.8 |
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3.0 |
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2.8 |
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2.1 |
2.1 |
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2.4 |
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2.2 |
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New Zealand |
2.7 |
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2.5 |
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2.6 |
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3.9 |
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2.8 |
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1.5 |
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2.8 |
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2.5 |
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2.5 |
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1.5 |
2.4 |
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2.5 |
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2.1 |
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EM Asia |
6.0 |
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5.6 |
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5.6 |
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5.8 |
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5.4 |
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5.5 |
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5.5 |
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5.5 |
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5.8 |
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2.3 |
2.6 |
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3.3 |
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2.9 |
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China |
6.6 |
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6.1 |
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6.1 |
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6.6 |
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6.0 |
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6.1 |
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5.9 |
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5.9 |
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6.3 |
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1.8 |
2.6 |
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3.4 |
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2.7 |
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India |
7.3 |
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7.2 |
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7.1 |
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7.6 |
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6.9 |
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6.8 |
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6.6 |
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7.1 |
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7.5 |
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4.8 |
3.4 |
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4.6 |
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5.0 |
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Ex China/India |
3.7 |
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3.5 |
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3.5 |
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2.9 |
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2.9 |
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3.4 |
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3.8 |
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3.5 |
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3.7 |
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2.1 |
2.1 |
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2.2 |
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2.2 |
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Hong Kong |
3.3 |
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2.7 |
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2.6 |
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-0.8 |
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0.4 |
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2.0 |
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4.0 |
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3.5 |
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3.3 |
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2.1 |
2.6 |
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2.8 |
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3.0 |
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Indonesia |
5.1 |
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4.8 |
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4.9 |
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5.8 |
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4.8 |
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4.7 |
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5.0 |
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4.8 |
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4.9 |
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3.3 |
3.0 |
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3.2 |
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3.4 |
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Korea |
2.6 |
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2.7 |
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2.6 |
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2.4 |
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2.3 |
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2.4 |
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2.8 |
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2.8 |
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2.9 |
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1.5 |
1.8 |
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1.7 |
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1.7 |
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Malay sia |
4.7 |
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4.7 |
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4.5 |
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1.2 |
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6.7 |
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4.0 |
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4.7 |
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4.5 |
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4.5 |
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1.3 |
0.3 |
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1.3 |
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1.8 |
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Philippines |
6.3 |
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6.2 |
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6.3 |
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6.3 |
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5.9 |
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6.6 |
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5.7 |
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6.1 |
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6.6 |
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4.8 |
6.5 |
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4.5 |
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2.5 |
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Singapore |
3.0 |
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2.4 |
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3.0 |
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1.0 |
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3.0 |
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0.9 |
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4.4 |
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1.0 |
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2.8 |
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0.3 |
0.9 |
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1.4 |
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1.6 |
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Taiw an |
2.7 |
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2.1 |
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2.1 |
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1.1 |
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1.5 |
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2.7 |
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1.9 |
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2.1 |
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2.2 |
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1.7 |
1.5 |
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1.7 |
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2.0 |
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Thailand |
4.2 |
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3.8 |
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3.8 |
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3.7 |
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-0.1 |
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4.5 |
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4.4 |
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3.5 |
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4.5 |
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1.3 |
1.1 |
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1.2 |
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1.3 |
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Western Europe |
1.9 |
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1.9 |
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1.9 |
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1.8 |
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1.0 |
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2.3 |
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1.9 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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1.8 |
2.1 |
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1.6 |
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1.4 |
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Euro area |
2.0 |
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1.9 |
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1.9 |
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1.8 |
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0.7 |
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2.5 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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1.7 |
2.0 |
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1.4 |
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1.2 |
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Germany |
1.7 |
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2.1 |
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1.9 |
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1.8 |
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-0.8 |
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3.5 |
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2.5 |
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2.3 |
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2.0 |
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1.9 |
2.2 |
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1.9 |
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1.5 |
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France |
1.6 |
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1.9 |
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1.9 |
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0.6 |
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1.6 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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2.1 |
2.2 |
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1.4 |
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1.3 |
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Italy |
1.0 |
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0.6 |
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0.9 |
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0.7 |
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-0.5 |
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1.0 |
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0.5 |
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0.8 |
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0.8 |
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1.0 |
1.6 |
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1.1 |
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1.0 |
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Spain |
2.5 |
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2.3 |
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1.9 |
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2.3 |
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2.4 |
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2.5 |
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2.3 |
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2.3 |
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2.0 |
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1.8 |
1.9 |
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1.1 |
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1.1 |
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Norw ay |
2.4 |
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2.1 |
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2.0 |
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2.7 |
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1.1 |
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2.8 |
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2.1 |
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2.1 |
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2.1 |
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2.4 |
3.1 |
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2.2 |
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1.1 |
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Sw eden |
2.4 |
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1.9 |
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1.8 |
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2.0 |
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-0.9 |
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3.3 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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1.9 |
2.6 |
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2.6 |
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2.5 |
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United Kingdom |
1.3 |
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1.8 |
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1.8 |
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1.6 |
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2.5 |
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1.0 |
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1.5 |
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2.0 |
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2.3 |
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2.4 |
2.2 |
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2.2 |
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2.1 |
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EMEA EM |
2.7 |
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1.9 |
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2.5 |
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3.1 |
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0.0 |
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1.0 |
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1.0 |
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2.8 |
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3.3 |
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4.6 |
7.1 |
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7.1 |
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5.5 |
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Czech Republic |
2.9 |
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2.8 |
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3.1 |
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2.8 |
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2.3 |
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4.2 |
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3.5 |
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3.3 |
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3.3 |
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2.3 |
2.2 |
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2.7 |
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2.3 |
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Hungary |
4.7 |
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3.8 |
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2.8 |
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4.4 |
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5.5 |
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3.0 |
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4.0 |
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4.0 |
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3.5 |
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2.7 |
3.4 |
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3.3 |
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2.5 |
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Israel |
3.4 |
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3.4 |
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3.5 |
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1.2 |
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2.3 |
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2.0 |
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3.8 |
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4.1 |
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4.2 |
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0.7 |
1.2 |
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1.0 |
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1.4 |
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Poland |
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5.1 |
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4.0 |
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3.5 |
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4.5 |
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7.0 |
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3.0 |
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3.8 |
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3.8 |
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3.8 |
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1.7 |
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1.6 |
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2.3 |
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2.5 |
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Romania |
4.2 |
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3.0 |
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1.5 |
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6.0 |
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7.8 |
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1.2 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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2.7 |
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5.3 |
4.0 |
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3.2 |
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3.9 |
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Russia |
1.6 |
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1.4 |
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1.6 |
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3.1 |
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0.0 |
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1.3 |
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0.3 |
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2.0 |
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2.5 |
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2.5 |
3.8 |
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5.0 |
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4.6 |
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South Africa |
0.5 |
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1.2 |
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1.1 |
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-0.4 |
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2.2 |
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2.5 |
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0.0 |
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1.3 |
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1.5 |
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4.5 |
5.0 |
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5.5 |
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5.5 |
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Turkey |
3.3 |
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0.2 |
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3.7 |
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3.8 |
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-9.6 |
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-2.8 |
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-1.6 |
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3.8 |
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5.0 |
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12.8 |
22.5 |
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20.0 |
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12.6 |
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Global |
3.3 |
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3.0 |
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2.8 |
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3.6 |
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2.8 |
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3.0 |
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2.9 |
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3.1 |
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3.2 |
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2.4 |
2.6 |
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2.5 |
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2.3 |
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Dev eloped markets |
2.3 |
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2.1 |
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1.6 |
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3.1 |
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1.9 |
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2.5 |
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2.1 |
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1.9 |
|
2.0 |
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2.1 |
2.0 |
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1.6 |
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1.6 |
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Emerging markets |
4.7 |
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4.4 |
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4.6 |
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4.3 |
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4.0 |
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3.8 |
|
4.2 |
|
4.8 |
|
5.0 |
|
2.8 |
3.5 |
|
4.0 |
|
3.4 |
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Source: J.P. Morgan
25
vk.com/id446425943
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou |
|
John Normand |
|
Global Cross-Asset Strategy |
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(44-20) 7134-7815 |
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(44-20) 7134-1816 |
07 December 2018 |
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nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com |
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Marko Kolanovic, PhD |
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(1-212) 272-1438 |
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marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com |
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Central Bank Policy Rate Watch |
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Forecast (%pa) |
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Official |
Current |
Change since (bp) |
Last change |
Next meeting |
Forecast |
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rate |
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rate (%pa) |
05-07 avg |
oya |
next change |
Dec 18 |
Mar 19 |
Jun 19 |
Sep 19 |
Dec 19 |
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Global |
|
2.65 |
-145 |
44 |
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2.73 |
2.83 |
2.93 |
3.05 |
3.19 |
ex cluding US |
|
2.81 |
-140 |
67 |
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2.82 |
2.86 |
2.90 |
2.97 |
3.07 |
Dev eloped |
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1.04 |
-205 |
36 |
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1.16 |
1.28 |
1.42 |
1.59 |
1.80 |
Emerging |
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5.35 |
-167 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
5.37 |
5.43 |
5.46 |
5.50 |
5.53 |
Latin America |
|
6.35 |
-456 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
6.43 |
6.55 |
6.84 |
7.38 |
7.88 |
EMEA EM |
|
9.11 |
262 |
258 |
|
|
|
|
9.11 |
9.26 |
9.07 |
8.58 |
7.97 |
EM Asia |
|
4.28 |
-142 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
4.29 |
4.32 |
4.34 |
4.39 |
4.46 |
The Americas |
|
2.86 |
-228 |
87 |
|
|
|
|
3.07 |
3.30 |
3.56 |
3.85 |
4.14 |
United States |
Fed funds |
2.25 |
-208 |
100 |
26 Sep 18 (+25bp) |
19 Dec 18 |
19 Dec 18 (+25bp) |
2.50 |
2.75 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
3.50 |
|
Canada |
O/N rate |
1.75 |
-188 |
75 |
24 Oct 18 (+25bp) |
9 Jan 19 |
|
Jan 19 (+25bp) |
1.75 |
2.00 |
2.25 |
2.50 |
2.75 |
Brazil |
SELIC O/N |
6.50 |
-894 |
-50 |
21 Mar 18 (-25bp) |
12 Dec 18 |
|
Jun 19 (+25bp) |
6.50 |
6.50 |
6.75 |
7.75 |
8.75 |
Mex ico |
Repo rate |
8.00 |
6 |
93 |
15 Nov 18 (+25bp) |
20 Dec 18 |
20 Dec 18 (+25bp) |
8.25 |
8.50 |
8.75 |
8.75 |
8.75 |
|
Chile |
Disc rate |
2.75 |
-175 |
25 |
18 Oct 18 (+25bp) |
1 Feb 19 |
|
Jan 19 (+25bp) |
2.75 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
3.50 |
3.50 |
Colombia |
Repo rate |
4.25 |
-300 |
-50 |
29 Jan 18 (-25bp) |
21 Dec 18 |
|
Mar 19 (+25bp) |
4.25 |
4.50 |
5.00 |
5.25 |
5.25 |
Peru |
Reference |
2.75 |
-123 |
-50 |
8 Mar 18 (-25bp) |
13 Dec 18 |
|
Jan 19 (+25bp) |
2.75 |
3.00 |
3.50 |
3.75 |
4.00 |
Europe/Africa |
|
1.68 |
-200 |
42 |
|
|
|
|
1.68 |
1.72 |
1.72 |
1.72 |
1.80 |
Euro area |
Depo rate |
-0.40 |
-238 |
0 |
10 Mar 16 (-5bp) |
13 Dec 18 |
|
3Q 19 (+15bp) |
-0.40 |
-0.40 -0.40 |
-0.25 |
0.00 |
|
United Kingdom |
Bank rate |
0.75 |
-417 |
25 |
2 Aug 18 (+25bp) |
20 Dec 18 |
|
May 19 (+25bp) |
0.75 |
0.75 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.25 |
Norw ay |
Dep rate |
0.75 |
-233 |
25 |
20 Sep 18 (+25bp) |
13 Dec 18 |
|
1Q 19 (+25bp) |
0.75 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
Sw eden |
Repo rate |
-0.50 |
-302 |
0 |
11 Feb 16 (-15bp) |
20 Dec 18 |
|
4Q 18 (+25bp) |
-0.25 |
-0.25 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.25 |
Czech Republic |
2-w k repo |
1.75 |
-65 |
125 |
1 Nov 18 (+25bp) |
20 Dec 18 |
|
1Q 19 (+25bp) |
1.75 |
2.00 |
2.25 |
2.25 |
2.25 |
Hungary |
3-m dep |
0.90 |
-641 |
0 |
21 May 16 (-15bp) |
18 Dec 18 |
|
3Q 19 (+20bp) |
0.90 |
0.90 |
0.90 |
1.10 |
1.50 |
Israel |
Base rate |
0.25 |
-397 |
15 |
26 Nov 18 (+15bp) |
- |
|
1Q 19 (+25bp) |
0.25 |
0.50 |
0.75 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
Poland |
7-day interv |
1.50 |
-317 |
0 |
4 Mar 15 (-50bp) |
9 Jan 19 |
|
4Q 19 (+25bp) |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.75 |
Romania |
Base rate |
2.50 |
-644 |
75 |
7 May 18 (+25bp) |
- |
|
2Q 19 (+25bp) |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.75 |
3.25 |
3.75 |
Russia |
Repo rate |
7.50 |
550 |
-75 |
14 Sep 18 (+25bp) |
14 Dec 18 |
|
Mar 19 (+25bp) |
7.50 |
7.75 |
7.75 |
7.75 |
7.75 |
South Africa |
Repo rate |
6.75 |
-148 |
0 |
22 Nov 18 (+25bp) |
17 Jan 19 |
|
Mar 19 (+25bp) |
6.75 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.25 |
7.25 |
Turkey |
1-w k repo |
24.00 |
799 |
1175 |
13 Sep 18 (+625bp) |
13 Dec 18 |
|
Jun 19 (-100bp) |
24.00 |
24.00 |
23.00 |
20.50 |
17.50 |
Asia/Pacific |
|
3.28 |
-34 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
3.28 |
3.30 |
3.32 |
3.36 |
3.41 |
Australia |
Cash rate |
1.50 |
-438 |
0 |
2 Aug 16 (-25bp) |
5 Feb 19 |
|
On hold |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
New Zealand |
Cash rate |
1.75 |
-556 |
0 |
11 Aug 16 (-25bp) |
13 Feb 18 |
|
On hold |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
Japan |
O/N call rat |
-0.10 |
-33 |
-6 |
28 Jan 16 (-20bp) |
23 Jan 19 |
|
On hold |
-0.10 |
-0.10 -0.10 |
-0.10 |
-0.10 |
|
Hong Kong |
Disc. w ndw |
2.50 |
-331 |
100 |
26 Sep 18 (+25bp) |
- |
|
19 Dec 18 (+25bp) |
2.75 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
3.50 |
3.75 |
China |
1-y r w orkin |
4.35 |
-175 |
0 |
23 Oct 15 (-25bp) |
- |
|
On hold |
4.35 |
4.35 |
4.35 |
4.35 |
4.35 |
Korea |
Base rate |
1.75 |
-233 |
25 |
30 Nov 18 (+25bp) |
- |
|
4Q 19 (+25bp) |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
2.00 |
Indonesia |
BI rate |
6.00 |
-368 |
175 |
15 Nov 18 (+25bp) |
20 Dec 18 |
|
1Q 19 (+25bp) |
6.00 |
6.25 |
6.50 |
6.75 |
7.00 |
India |
Repo rate |
6.50 |
-31 |
50 |
1 Aug 18 (+25bp) |
9 Feb 19 |
|
3Q 19 (+25bp) |
6.50 |
6.50 |
6.50 |
6.75 |
7.00 |
Malay sia |
O/N rate |
3.25 |
5 |
25 |
25 Jan 18 (+25bp) |
- |
|
On hold |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
Philippines |
Rev repo |
4.75 |
-229 |
175 |
15 Nov 18 (+50bp) |
13 Dec 18 |
|
1Q 19 (+25bp) |
4.75 |
5.00 |
5.00 |
5.00 |
5.00 |
Thailand |
1-day repo |
1.50 |
-219 |
0 |
29 Apr 15 (-25bp) |
19 Dec 18 |
|
4Q 18 (+25bp) |
1.75 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
Taiw an |
Official disc. |
1.38 |
-114 |
138 |
30 Jun 16 (-12.5bp) |
20 Dec 18 |
|
2Q 19 (+13bp) |
1.38 |
1.38 |
1.50 |
1.63 |
1.75 |
Source: J.P. Morgan. 1BoJ targets ¥80tn/year expansion in monetary base and sets the IOER (O/N) as policy guidance. Bold denotes move since last GDW and forecast changes. Underline denotes policy meeting during upcoming week.
Aggregates are GDP-weighted averages. 2The BI rate for Indonesia reflects announced recalibration effective August 19, 2016. 3 The Philippines introduced a recalibrated reverse repo rate effective June 3 at a level of 3.00% .
Rather than the refi rate, we now display the 1-wk dep rate, which better represents CBR policy stance and is closer to interbank market rates.
26
vk.com/id446425943
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou |
|
John Normand |
|
|
Global Cross-Asset Strategy |
|
|
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|||||
(44-20) 7134-7815 |
|
(44-20) 7134-1816 |
|
|
07 December 2018 |
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|||||
nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com |
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|||||||
Marko Kolanovic, PhD |
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(1-212) 272-1438 |
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marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com |
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Global Rates Forecast |
|
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|
|
|
|
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|||||
|
|
|
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|
|
|
YTD chg. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
YTD chg. |
|
|
07-Dec* |
Mar-19 Jun-19 S ep-19 |
Dec-19 |
(bp) |
|
|
|
07-Dec* |
Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 |
(bp) |
|||||
US |
Fed funds |
2.00-2.25 2.50-2.75 2.75-3.00 3.00-3 25 3.25-3 50 |
75 |
|
UK |
Base rate |
0.75 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.25 |
1 25 |
25 |
||||
|
3M Libor |
2.77 |
2.95 |
3.20 |
3.45 |
3.70 |
108 |
|
|
3M Libor |
0 91 |
1.05 |
1.05 |
1.30 |
1 30 |
39 |
|
2Y bmk yield |
2.76 |
3.25 |
3.45 |
3.60 |
3.70 |
87 |
|
|
2Y bmk yield |
0.75 |
0.95 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1 35 |
31 |
|
5Y bmk yield |
2.75 |
3.30 |
3.45 |
3.55 |
3.60 |
54 |
|
|
5Y bmk yield |
0.80 |
1.05 |
1.20 |
1.30 |
1.40 |
9 |
|
10Y bmk yield |
2.89 |
3.35 |
3.50 |
3.55 |
3.60 |
48 |
|
|
10Y bmk yield |
1 28 |
1.65 |
1.75 |
1.85 |
1 90 |
9 |
|
30Y bmk yield |
3.17 |
3.45 |
3.55 |
3.55 |
3 55 |
43 |
|
|
30Y bmk yield |
1.84 |
2.10 |
2.15 |
2.20 |
2 25 |
9 |
|
2s/10s bmk curve |
13 |
10 |
5 |
-5 |
-10 |
-39 |
|
|
2s/10s bmk curve |
53 |
70 |
65 |
65 |
55 |
-22 |
|
10s/30s bmk curve |
28 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
-5 |
-6 |
|
|
10s/30s bmk curve |
57 |
45 |
40 |
35 |
35 |
0 |
|
2s/30s bmk curve |
41 |
20 |
10 |
-5 |
-15 |
-44 |
|
|
2s/30s bmk curve |
110 |
115 |
105 |
100 |
90 |
-22 |
|
2Y swap spread |
16 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
-2 |
|
|
2Y swap spread |
21 |
30 |
35 |
40 |
40 |
-8 |
|
5Y swap spread |
13 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
10 |
|
|
5Y swap spread |
47 |
40 |
40 |
45 |
50 |
18 |
|
10Y swap spread |
6 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
8 |
|
|
10Y swap spread |
19 |
10 |
15 |
20 |
25 |
10 |
|
30Y swap spread |
-13 |
-2 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
|
|
30Y swap spread |
-21 |
-20 |
-15 |
-10 |
0 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Euro area |
Refi rate |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0 25 |
- |
|
Japan |
Policy rate |
-0.10 |
-0.10 |
-0.10 |
-0.10 |
-0.10 |
- |
|
Depo rate |
-0.40 |
-0.40 |
-0.40 |
-0.25 |
0.00 |
- |
|
|
10Y yield target |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
- |
|
3M Euribor |
-0 31 |
-0.32 |
-0.32 |
-0.17 |
0.08 |
1 |
|
|
2Y bmk yield |
-0.16 |
-0.10 |
-0.10 |
-0.05 |
-0.05 |
-2 |
|
2Y bmk yield |
-0.60 |
-0.50 |
-0.45 |
-0.30 |
-0.15 |
2 |
|
|
5Y bmk yield |
-0.13 |
-0.05 |
-0.05 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-3 |
|
5Y bmk yield |
-0 30 |
-0.05 |
0.05 |
0.30 |
0.45 |
-10 |
|
|
10Y bmk yield |
0.05 |
0.15 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
0 20 |
0 |
|
10Y bmk yield |
0 26 |
0.55 |
0.65 |
0.90 |
1.00 |
-16 |
|
|
20Y bmk yield |
0 56 |
0.75 |
0.80 |
0.85 |
0 90 |
-1 |
|
30Y bmk yield |
0 90 |
1.20 |
1.25 |
1.40 |
1.45 |
-34 |
|
|
30Y bmk yield |
0.78 |
0.95 |
1.00 |
1.05 |
1.10 |
-3 |
|
2s/10s bmk curve |
86 |
105 |
110 |
120 |
115 |
-18 |
|
|
2s/10s bmk curve |
21 |
25 |
30 |
25 |
25 |
2 |
|
10s/30s bmk curve |
64 |
65 |
60 |
50 |
45 |
-18 |
|
|
10s/30s bmk curve |
73 |
80 |
80 |
85 |
90 |
-3 |
|
2s/30s bmk curve |
150 |
170 |
170 |
170 |
160 |
-36 |
|
|
2s/30s bmk curve |
94 |
105 |
110 |
110 |
115 |
-1 |
|
2Y swap spread |
46 |
50 |
48 |
46 |
44 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5Y swap spread |
55 |
52 |
48 |
46 |
46 |
7 |
|
Australia |
Cash rate |
1 50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1 50 |
- |
|
10Y swap spread |
57 |
52 |
48 |
46 |
46 |
15 |
|
|
3Y bmk yield |
1 93 |
2.15 |
2.25 |
2.20 |
2 35 |
-21 |
|
30Y swap spread |
53 |
46 |
42 |
42 |
40 |
27 |
|
|
10Y bmk yield |
2.45 |
2.80 |
2.90 |
2.90 |
3.00 |
-19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
New Zealand Cash rate |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
- |
|
10Y spread |
Austria |
31 |
25 |
25 |
20 |
20 |
13 |
|
|
3Y bmk yield |
1.79 |
1.90 |
2.05 |
2.00 |
2.05 |
-19 |
to Germany |
Belgium |
50 |
50 |
45 |
40 |
35 |
29 |
|
|
10Y bmk yield |
2.43 |
2.80 |
2.90 |
2.90 |
3.00 |
-37 |
(curve adj.) |
Finland |
28 |
30 |
25 |
20 |
20 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
France |
40 |
40 |
35 |
30 |
30 |
14 |
|
Sweden |
Repo rate |
-0 50 |
-0.25 |
-0.25 |
0.00 |
0 25 |
- |
|
Ireland |
67 |
55 |
50 |
45 |
45 |
32 |
|
|
2-year govt |
-0.44 |
-0.25 |
-0.15 |
0.05 |
0.15 |
-2 |
|
Italy |
285 |
325 |
300 |
240 |
225 |
133 |
|
|
10-year govt |
0.46 |
0.85 |
0.95 |
1.15 |
1 20 |
-29 |
|
Netherlands |
15 |
15 |
15 |
10 |
10 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Portugal |
153 |
150 |
145 |
130 |
115 |
6 |
|
Norway |
Depo rate |
0.75 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.25 |
1 25 |
25 |
|
Spain |
120 |
120 |
115 |
110 |
100 |
14 |
|
|
2-year govt |
1.14 |
1.40 |
1.50 |
1.70 |
1 90 |
27 |
|
Wtd. peri. spread |
223 |
243 |
225 |
187 |
174 |
90 |
|
|
10-year govt |
1.74 |
2.15 |
2.30 |
2.60 |
2.70 |
18 |
Source: J.P. Morgan
27
vk.com/id446425943
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou |
|
John Normand |
|
|
|
|
Global Cross-Asset Strategy |
|
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|
|
|
||||||||
(44-20) 7134-7815 |
|
|
(44-20) 7134-1816 |
|
|
|
07 December 2018 |
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|||||||
nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com |
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Marko Kolanovic, PhD |
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(1-212) 272-1438 |
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marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com |
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FX Forecasts vs. Forwards & Consensus |
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Exchange rates vs. U.S dollar |
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Current |
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JPM forecast gain/loss vs December 19* |
|
Actual change in local FX vs USD |
|||||
Majors |
|
|
7-Dec |
Mar 19 |
|
Jun 19 |
|
Sep 19 |
|
Dec 19 |
|
|
Spot |
Forwards |
Consensus** |
|
Past 1mo |
Past 3mo |
YTD |
Past 12mos |
|
EUR |
1.14 |
1.11 |
|
1.13 |
|
1.16 |
|
1.18 |
|
|
3.7% |
0.2% |
-1.7% |
|
-0.4% |
-1.5% |
-5.3% |
-3.3% |
|
|
JPY |
112.8 |
116.0 |
|
118.0 |
|
115.0 |
|
112.0 |
|
0.7% |
-2.7% |
-2.7% |
0.7% |
-1.6% |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
|||
|
GBP |
1.27 |
1.31 |
|
1.33 |
|
1.36 |
|
1.37 |
|
|
7.8% |
5.7% |
0.9% |
|
-3.0% |
-1.4% |
-5.7% |
-5.5% |
|
|
AUD |
0.72 |
0.70 |
|
0.69 |
|
0.68 |
|
0.68 |
|
-5.9% |
-6.6% |
-9.3% |
-0.7% |
1.7% |
-7.4% |
-3.8% |
|||
|
CAD |
1.33 |
1.33 |
|
1.30 |
|
1.28 |
|
1.26 |
|
|
5.4% |
4.7% |
0.0% |
|
-1.3% |
-0.9% |
-5.5% |
-3.2% |
|
|
NZD |
0.69 |
0.64 |
|
0.63 |
|
0.62 |
|
0.61 |
|
-11.2% |
-11.8% |
-10.3% |
1.2% |
5.1% |
-3.3% |
0.6% |
|||
JPM USD index |
123.1 |
125.3 |
|
125.5 |
|
124.7 |
|
123.8 |
|
|
0.6% |
0.4% |
2.9% |
|
0.8% |
1.5% |
5.7% |
4.8% |
||
DXY |
|
|
96.7 |
98.3 |
|
97.0 |
|
94.7 |
|
93.1 |
|
-3.8% |
-0.9% |
1.4% |
0.8% |
1.4% |
4.9% |
3.1% |
||
Europe, Middle East & Africa |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
CHF |
0.99 |
1.01 |
|
1.00 |
|
0.98 |
|
0.975 |
|
|
1.9% |
-2.0% |
0.0% |
|
1.0% |
-2.4% |
-1.8% |
0.2% |
|
|
ILS |
3.74 |
3.65 |
|
3.65 |
|
3.60 |
|
3.55 |
|
5.3% |
2.1% |
2.5% |
-1.8% |
-3.9% |
-7.0% |
-5.9% |
|||
|
SEK |
9.03 |
9.10 |
|
8.89 |
|
8.66 |
|
8.52 |
|
|
6.0% |
2.6% |
-4.1% |
|
0.0% |
0.4% |
-9.4% |
-6.0% |
|
|
NOK |
8.49 |
8.51 |
|
8.32 |
|
8.10 |
|
7.97 |
|
6.6% |
4.9% |
-4.0% |
-1.7% |
-0.5% |
-3.5% |
-2.1% |
|||
|
CZK |
22.73 |
23.24 |
|
22.83 |
|
22.24 |
|
21.86 |
|
|
4.0% |
2.5% |
-4.3% |
|
-0.4% |
-2.2% |
-6.5% |
-4.4% |
|
|
PLN |
3.77 |
3.87 |
|
3.81 |
|
3.66 |
|
3.60 |
|
4.6% |
3.4% |
-1.7% |
-0.4% |
-0.9% |
-7.5% |
-5.1% |
|||
|
HUF |
284 |
297 |
|
296 |
|
293 |
|
292 |
|
|
-2.9% |
-5.4% |
-7.9% |
|
-0.9% |
-0.9% |
-8.8% |
-5.8% |
|
|
RUB |
66.19 |
68.50 |
|
68.00 |
|
67.50 |
|
67.00 |
|
-1.2% |
3.8% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
5.6% |
-12.9% |
-10.6% |
|||
|
TRY |
5.29 |
5.70 |
|
6.00 |
|
6.50 |
|
7.00 |
|
|
-24.5% |
-9.9% |
-10.3% |
|
1.4% |
21.3% |
-28.3% |
-26.9% |
|
|
ZAR |
14.00 |
15.00 |
|
15.50 |
|
16.00 |
|
16.50 |
|
-15.2% |
-11.0% |
-17.6% |
-0.7% |
8.8% |
-11.5% |
-1.9% |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Americas |
ARS |
37.31 |
40.00 |
|
42.00 |
|
44.00 |
|
46.00 |
|
|
-18.9% |
15.9% |
0.0% |
|
-4.4% |
-0.9% |
-50.1% |
-53.7% |
|
|
BRL |
3.87 |
3.80 |
|
4.00 |
|
4.10 |
|
4.10 |
|
-5.5% |
-2.6% |
-9.5% |
-3.5% |
4.8% |
-14.6% |
-15.0% |
|||
|
CLP |
674 |
710 |
|
720 |
|
745 |
|
760 |
|
|
-11.3% |
-11.3% |
-11.6% |
|
0.3% |
-2.7% |
-8.7% |
-2.7% |
|
|
COP |
3155 |
3125 |
|
3150 |
|
3175 |
|
3200 |
|
-1.4% |
0.3% |
-5.8% |
-0.4% |
-2.7% |
-5.3% |
-4.6% |
|||
|
MXN |
20.22 |
20.25 |
|
20.50 |
|
20.75 |
|
20.75 |
|
|
-2.5% |
3.9% |
-4.6% |
|
-1.7% |
-4.5% |
-2.8% |
-6.2% |
|
|
PEN |
3.37 |
3.36 |
|
3.38 |
|
3.39 |
|
3.40 |
|
-1.0% |
0.5% |
-2.9% |
-0.1% |
-1.3% |
-3.9% |
-3.9% |
|||
|
VES† |
|
188 |
10000 |
|
50000 |
|
100000 |
|
500000 |
|
|
na |
na |
na |
|
-65.6% |
-67.3% |
na |
na |
LACI |
|
|
54.2 |
53.8 |
|
52.3 |
|
51.2 |
|
50.8 |
|
-6.2% |
0.7% |
-6.6% |
-2.2% |
0.0% |
-13.7% |
-14.8% |
||
Asia |
CNY |
6.87 |
7.09 |
|
7.15 |
|
7.19 |
|
7.20 |
|
-4.5% |
-3.7% |
-5.0% |
0.7% |
-0.4% |
-5.3% |
-3.7% |
|||
|
HKD |
7.82 |
7.83 |
|
7.83 |
|
7.84 |
|
7.84 |
|
|
-0.3% |
-0.9% |
-0.4% |
|
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
|
|
IDR |
14480 |
15000 |
|
15200 |
|
15400 |
|
15450 |
|
-6.3% |
-0.8% |
-5.0% |
0.8% |
2.3% |
-6.3% |
-6.4% |
|||
|
INR |
70.81 |
73.50 |
|
74.25 |
|
75.00 |
|
75.50 |
|
|
-6.2% |
-1.5% |
-5.6% |
|
3.1% |
1.3% |
-10.1% |
-8.8% |
|
|
KRW |
1120 |
1145 |
|
1155 |
|
1145 |
|
1130 |
|
-0.9% |
-2.6% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
-4.4% |
-2.3% |
|||
|
MYR |
4.17 |
4.24 |
|
4.28 |
|
4.27 |
|
4.26 |
|
|
-2.2% |
-1.7% |
-1.4% |
|
-0.1% |
-0.5% |
-2.9% |
-1.9% |
|
|
PHP |
52.71 |
54.00 |
|
54.75 |
|
55.00 |
|
55.25 |
|
-4.6% |
-2.2% |
-2.3% |
0.5% |
1.9% |
-5.3% |
-3.9% |
|||
|
SGD |
1.37 |
1.40 |
|
1.41 |
|
1.40 |
|
1.39 |
|
|
-1.5% |
-2.5% |
-2.9% |
|
0.2% |
0.6% |
-2.5% |
-1.3% |
|
|
TWD |
30.84 |
31.30 |
|
31.50 |
|
31.40 |
|
31.00 |
|
-0.5% |
-3.7% |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
-3.4% |
-2.6% |
|||
|
THB |
32.81 |
33.50 |
|
33.70 |
|
33.50 |
|
33.40 |
|
|
-1.8% |
-3.0% |
-0.3% |
|
-0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.7% |
-0.5% |
|
ADXY |
|
|
104.8 |
102.2 |
|
101.5 |
|
101.3 |
|
101.5 |
|
-3.2% |
-2.7% |
-2.7% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
-4.5% |
-3.4% |
||
EMCI |
|
|
62.1 |
60.4 |
|
59.4 |
|
58.4 |
|
57.8 |
|
|
-6.9% |
-3.8% |
-7.3% |
|
-0.7% |
2.4% |
-10.9% |
-9.0% |
Exchange rates vs Euro |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actual change in local FX vs EUR |
|||||
|
JPY |
128.3 |
128.8 |
|
133.3 |
|
133.4 |
|
132.2 |
|
|
-2.9% |
-2.9% |
-1.0% |
|
1.1% |
-0.1% |
5.4% |
3.8% |
|
|
GBP |
0.894 |
0.850 |
|
0.850 |
|
0.855 |
|
0.860 |
|
3.9% |
5.5% |
2.6% |
-2.6% |
0.0% |
-0.6% |
-2.2% |
|||
|
CHF |
1.13 |
1.12 |
|
1.13 |
|
1.14 |
|
1.15 |
|
|
-1.8% |
-2.2% |
1.7% |
|
1.4% |
-0.9% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
|
|
SEK |
10.27 |
10.10 |
|
10.05 |
|
10.05 |
|
10.05 |
|
2.2% |
2.4% |
-2.5% |
0.4% |
1.9% |
-4.3% |
-2.7% |
|||
|
NOK |
9.67 |
9.45 |
|
9.40 |
|
9.40 |
|
9.40 |
|
|
2.8% |
4.7% |
-2.3% |
|
-1.3% |
1.0% |
1.9% |
1.3% |
|
|
CZK |
25.87 |
25.80 |
|
25.80 |
|
25.80 |
|
25.80 |
|
0.3% |
2.3% |
-2.7% |
0.0% |
-0.7% |
-1.3% |
-1.1% |
|||
|
PLN |
4.29 |
4.30 |
|
4.30 |
|
4.25 |
|
4.25 |
|
|
0.9% |
3.3% |
0.0% |
|
0.0% |
0.6% |
-2.5% |
-1.8% |
|
|
HUF |
323 |
330 |
|
335 |
|
340 |
|
345 |
|
-6.4% |
-5.6% |
-6.4% |
-0.5% |
0.6% |
-3.9% |
-2.5% |
|||
|
RON |
4.65 |
4.75 |
|
4.85 |
|
4.95 |
|
4.95 |
|
|
-6.1% |
-2.2% |
-4.0% |
|
0.3% |
-0.5% |
0.7% |
-0.4% |
|
|
TRY |
6.02 |
6.33 |
|
6.78 |
|
7.54 |
|
8.26 |
|
-27.1% |
-10.0% |
-8.8% |
1.8% |
23.1% |
-24.3% |
-24.4% |
|||
|
RUB |
75.32 |
76.04 |
|
76.84 |
|
78.30 |
|
79.06 |
|
|
-4.7% |
3.6% |
1.7% |
|
0.5% |
7.3% |
-7.5% |
-7.5% |
|
|
BRL |
4.41 |
4.22 |
|
4.52 |
|
4.76 |
|
4.84 |
|
-8.9% |
-2.7% |
-8.0% |
-2.9% |
6.9% |
-9.7% |
-12.0% |
|||
|
MXN |
23.01 |
22.48 |
|
23.17 |
|
24.07 |
|
24.49 |
|
|
-6.0% |
3.8% |
-3.0% |
|
-1.4% |
-3.0% |
2.6% |
-2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
indicates a revision resulting in a stronger currency forecast, indicates a revision resulting in a weaker currency forecast. Source: J.P.Morgan
*Positive indicates JPM more bullish on local currency than spot, consensus or forward rates. ** BloombergFX Consensus Forecasts. *** JPM USD Index caluclations assume flat VES forecasts
† DICOM
Source: J.P. Morgan
28
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Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou |
John Normand |
Global Cross-Asset Strategy |
(44-20) 7134-7815 |
(44-20) 7134-1816 |
07 December 2018 |
nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com
Marko Kolanovic, PhD (1-212) 272-1438
marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com
Global Commodities Price Forecasts
Source: J.P. Morgan
29
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