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Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

John Normand

(44-20) 7134-7815

(44-20) 7134-1816

nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com

Marko Kolanovic, PhD (1-212) 272-1438

marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com

19 Sep. Target of $0.4/bbl and stop loss of $0/bbl. Closed the trade on 18 Oct at a loss of $0.17/bbl and 0.26% of the underlying.

Abhishek DeshpandeAC (1-212) 834-3102

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Close long Dec’19-Jan’20 ICE Brent spread at $0.34/bbl

We closed the trade as it reached our stop loss.

Abhishek DeshpandeAC (1-212) 834-3102

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Global Cross-Asset Strategy

07 December 2018

23

vk.com/id446425943

vk.com/id446425943

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

John Normand

Global Cross-Asset Strategy

(44-20) 7134-7815

(44-20) 7134-1816

07 December 2018

nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com

Marko Kolanovic, PhD (1-212) 272-1438

marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com

Global Economic Outlook Summary

 

 

 

 

Real GDP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Real GDP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% over a year ago

 

 

 

% over previous period, saar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% over a year ago

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018

 

2019

 

2020

 

2Q18

 

3Q18

 

4Q18

 

1Q19

 

2Q19

 

3Q19

 

 

 

 

2Q18

 

 

 

4Q18

 

 

 

2Q19

 

 

 

4Q19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

United States

2.9

 

2.4

 

1.5

 

4.2

 

3.5

 

2.5

 

2.3

 

2.0

 

1.8

 

2.6

2.3

 

1.7

 

1.8

 

Canada

2.1

 

2.2

 

1.6

 

2.9

 

2.0

 

2.5

 

2.2

 

2.2

 

1.9

 

2.3

2.2

 

2.1

 

2.2

 

Latin America

1.2

 

1.8

 

2.2

 

-1.2

 

2.2

 

-0.7

 

1.9

 

3.7

 

3.1

 

3.5

4.1

 

4.1

 

3.8

 

Argentina

-2.7

 

-1.5

 

2.6

 

-15.2

 

-0.5

-13.0

 

-1.0

 

8.0

 

5.0

 

27.1

47.4

 

48.1

 

27.7

 

Brazil

1.2

 

2.3

 

2.2

 

0.7

 

3.1

 

0.6

 

2.6

 

3.2

 

3.2

 

3.3

4.2

 

4.3

 

4.0

 

Chile

3.8

 

3.5

 

3.0

 

2.7

 

1.1

 

3.0

 

4.0

 

4.2

 

4.0

 

2.2

3.0

 

3.6

 

3.6

 

Colombia

2.7

 

3.1

 

3.1

 

2.4

 

0.9

 

3.0

 

2.8

 

4.5

 

3.5

 

3.2

3.4

 

3.6

 

3.8

 

Ecuador

0.2

 

-0.7

 

-0.8

 

1.5

 

-2.5

 

0.8

 

-1.5

 

0.0

 

-2.0

 

-0.8

0.0

 

0.3

 

0.5

 

Mex ico

2.0

 

1.9

 

1.7

 

-0.4

 

3.4

 

1.0

 

1.5

 

2.0

 

1.8

 

4.6

4.6

 

4.1

 

3.6

 

Peru

4.0

 

3.9

 

3.6

 

5.4

 

1.0

 

3.0

 

4.5

 

4.0

 

4.0

 

0.9

2.4

 

2.6

 

2.7

 

Venezuela

-10.0

 

 

 

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

1.0

 

2.0

 

 

 

 

28250

600000

 

..

 

..

 

Asia/Pacific

4.9

 

4.6

 

4.5

 

5.2

 

3.9

 

4.8

 

4.6

 

4.5

 

5.0

 

2.0

2.3

 

2.7

 

2.4

 

Japan

1.0

 

1.2

 

0.6

 

3.0

 

-1.2

 

3.0

 

1.5

 

1.0

 

2.5

 

0.6

0.9

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

Australia

2.9

 

2.5

 

2.7

 

3.6

 

1.0

 

1.9

 

2.8

 

3.0

 

2.8

 

2.1

2.1

 

2.4

 

2.2

 

New Zealand

2.7

 

2.5

 

2.6

 

3.9

 

2.8

 

1.5

 

2.8

 

2.5

 

2.5

 

1.5

2.4

 

2.5

 

2.1

 

EM Asia

6.0

 

5.6

 

5.6

 

5.8

 

5.4

 

5.5

 

5.5

 

5.5

 

5.8

 

2.3

2.6

 

3.3

 

2.9

 

China

6.6

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.6

 

6.0

 

6.1

 

5.9

 

5.9

 

6.3

 

1.8

2.6

 

3.4

 

2.7

 

India

7.3

 

7.2

 

7.1

 

7.6

 

6.9

 

6.8

 

6.6

 

7.1

 

7.5

 

4.8

3.4

 

4.6

 

5.0

 

Ex China/India

3.7

 

3.5

 

3.5

 

2.9

 

2.9

 

3.4

 

3.8

 

3.5

 

3.7

 

2.1

2.1

 

2.2

 

2.2

 

Hong Kong

3.3

 

2.7

 

2.6

 

-0.8

 

0.4

 

2.0

 

4.0

 

3.5

 

3.3

 

2.1

2.6

 

2.8

 

3.0

 

Indonesia

5.1

 

4.8

 

4.9

 

5.8

 

4.8

 

4.7

 

5.0

 

4.8

 

4.9

 

3.3

3.0

 

3.2

 

3.4

 

Korea

2.6

 

2.7

 

2.6

 

2.4

 

2.3

 

2.4

 

2.8

 

2.8

 

2.9

 

1.5

1.8

 

1.7

 

1.7

 

Malay sia

4.7

 

4.7

 

4.5

 

1.2

 

6.7

 

4.0

 

4.7

 

4.5

 

4.5

 

1.3

0.3

 

1.3

 

1.8

 

Philippines

6.3

 

6.2

 

6.3

 

6.3

 

5.9

 

6.6

 

5.7

 

6.1

 

6.6

 

4.8

6.5

 

4.5

 

2.5

 

Singapore

3.0

 

2.4

 

3.0

 

1.0

 

3.0

 

0.9

 

4.4

 

1.0

 

2.8

 

0.3

0.9

 

1.4

 

1.6

 

Taiw an

2.7

 

2.1

 

2.1

 

1.1

 

1.5

 

2.7

 

1.9

 

2.1

 

2.2

 

1.7

1.5

 

1.7

 

2.0

 

Thailand

4.2

 

3.8

 

3.8

 

3.7

 

-0.1

 

4.5

 

4.4

 

3.5

 

4.5

 

1.3

1.1

 

1.2

 

1.3

 

Western Europe

1.9

 

1.9

 

1.9

 

1.8

 

1.0

 

2.3

 

1.9

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

1.8

2.1

 

1.6

 

1.4

 

Euro area

2.0

 

1.9

 

1.9

 

1.8

 

0.7

 

2.5

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

1.7

2.0

 

1.4

 

1.2

 

Germany

1.7

 

2.1

 

1.9

 

1.8

 

-0.8

 

3.5

 

2.5

 

2.3

 

2.0

 

1.9

2.2

 

1.9

 

1.5

 

France

1.6

 

1.9

 

1.9

 

0.6

 

1.6

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

2.1

2.2

 

1.4

 

1.3

 

Italy

1.0

 

0.6

 

0.9

 

0.7

 

-0.5

 

1.0

 

0.5

 

0.8

 

0.8

 

1.0

1.6

 

1.1

 

1.0

 

Spain

2.5

 

2.3

 

1.9

 

2.3

 

2.4

 

2.5

 

2.3

 

2.3

 

2.0

 

1.8

1.9

 

1.1

 

1.1

 

Norw ay

2.4

 

2.1

 

2.0

 

2.7

 

1.1

 

2.8

 

2.1

 

2.1

 

2.1

 

2.4

3.1

 

2.2

 

1.1

 

Sw eden

2.4

 

1.9

 

1.8

 

2.0

 

-0.9

 

3.3

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

1.9

2.6

 

2.6

 

2.5

 

United Kingdom

1.3

 

1.8

 

1.8

 

1.6

 

2.5

 

1.0

 

1.5

 

2.0

 

2.3

 

2.4

2.2

 

2.2

 

2.1

 

EMEA EM

2.7

 

1.9

 

2.5

 

3.1

 

0.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

2.8

 

3.3

 

4.6

7.1

 

7.1

 

5.5

 

Czech Republic

2.9

 

2.8

 

3.1

 

2.8

 

2.3

 

4.2

 

3.5

 

3.3

 

3.3

 

2.3

2.2

 

2.7

 

2.3

 

Hungary

4.7

 

3.8

 

2.8

 

4.4

 

5.5

 

3.0

 

4.0

 

4.0

 

3.5

 

2.7

3.4

 

3.3

 

2.5

 

Israel

3.4

 

3.4

 

3.5

 

1.2

 

2.3

 

2.0

 

3.8

 

4.1

 

4.2

 

0.7

1.2

 

1.0

 

1.4

 

Poland

 

5.1

 

 

 

 

4.0

 

 

 

3.5

 

4.5

 

7.0

 

3.0

 

3.8

 

3.8

 

3.8

 

 

 

 

1.7

 

 

 

1.6

 

 

 

2.3

 

 

 

2.5

 

Romania

4.2

 

3.0

 

1.5

 

6.0

 

7.8

 

1.2

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

2.7

 

5.3

4.0

 

3.2

 

3.9

 

Russia

1.6

 

1.4

 

1.6

 

3.1

 

0.0

 

1.3

 

0.3

 

2.0

 

2.5

 

2.5

3.8

 

5.0

 

4.6

 

South Africa

0.5

 

1.2

 

1.1

 

-0.4

 

2.2

 

2.5

 

0.0

 

1.3

 

1.5

 

4.5

5.0

 

5.5

 

5.5

 

Turkey

3.3

 

0.2

 

3.7

 

3.8

 

-9.6

 

-2.8

 

-1.6

 

3.8

 

5.0

 

12.8

22.5

 

20.0

 

12.6

 

Global

3.3

 

3.0

 

2.8

 

3.6

 

2.8

 

3.0

 

2.9

 

3.1

 

3.2

 

2.4

2.6

 

2.5

 

2.3

 

Dev eloped markets

2.3

 

2.1

 

1.6

 

3.1

 

1.9

 

2.5

 

2.1

 

1.9

 

2.0

 

2.1

2.0

 

1.6

 

1.6

 

Emerging markets

4.7

 

4.4

 

4.6

 

4.3

 

4.0

 

3.8

 

4.2

 

4.8

 

5.0

 

2.8

3.5

 

4.0

 

3.4

 

Source: J.P. Morgan

25

vk.com/id446425943

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

 

John Normand

 

Global Cross-Asset Strategy

 

 

 

 

 

(44-20) 7134-7815

 

(44-20) 7134-1816

07 December 2018

 

 

 

 

 

nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Marko Kolanovic, PhD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1-212) 272-1438

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Bank Policy Rate Watch

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast (%pa)

 

 

Official

Current

Change since (bp)

Last change

Next meeting

Forecast

 

 

 

rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

rate (%pa)

05-07 avg

oya

next change

Dec 18

Mar 19

Jun 19

Sep 19

Dec 19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global

 

2.65

-145

44

 

 

 

 

2.73

2.83

2.93

3.05

3.19

ex cluding US

 

2.81

-140

67

 

 

 

 

2.82

2.86

2.90

2.97

3.07

Dev eloped

 

1.04

-205

36

 

 

 

 

1.16

1.28

1.42

1.59

1.80

Emerging

 

5.35

-167

50

 

 

 

 

5.37

5.43

5.46

5.50

5.53

Latin America

 

6.35

-456

2

 

 

 

 

6.43

6.55

6.84

7.38

7.88

EMEA EM

 

9.11

262

258

 

 

 

 

9.11

9.26

9.07

8.58

7.97

EM Asia

 

4.28

-142

9

 

 

 

 

4.29

4.32

4.34

4.39

4.46

The Americas

 

2.86

-228

87

 

 

 

 

3.07

3.30

3.56

3.85

4.14

United States

Fed funds

2.25

-208

100

26 Sep 18 (+25bp)

19 Dec 18

19 Dec 18 (+25bp)

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

Canada

O/N rate

1.75

-188

75

24 Oct 18 (+25bp)

9 Jan 19

 

Jan 19 (+25bp)

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

Brazil

SELIC O/N

6.50

-894

-50

21 Mar 18 (-25bp)

12 Dec 18

 

Jun 19 (+25bp)

6.50

6.50

6.75

7.75

8.75

Mex ico

Repo rate

8.00

6

93

15 Nov 18 (+25bp)

20 Dec 18

20 Dec 18 (+25bp)

8.25

8.50

8.75

8.75

8.75

Chile

Disc rate

2.75

-175

25

18 Oct 18 (+25bp)

1 Feb 19

 

Jan 19 (+25bp)

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.50

Colombia

Repo rate

4.25

-300

-50

29 Jan 18 (-25bp)

21 Dec 18

 

Mar 19 (+25bp)

4.25

4.50

5.00

5.25

5.25

Peru

Reference

2.75

-123

-50

8 Mar 18 (-25bp)

13 Dec 18

 

Jan 19 (+25bp)

2.75

3.00

3.50

3.75

4.00

Europe/Africa

 

1.68

-200

42

 

 

 

 

1.68

1.72

1.72

1.72

1.80

Euro area

Depo rate

-0.40

-238

0

10 Mar 16 (-5bp)

13 Dec 18

 

3Q 19 (+15bp)

-0.40

-0.40 -0.40

-0.25

0.00

United Kingdom

Bank rate

0.75

-417

25

2 Aug 18 (+25bp)

20 Dec 18

 

May 19 (+25bp)

0.75

0.75

1.00

1.00

1.25

Norw ay

Dep rate

0.75

-233

25

20 Sep 18 (+25bp)

13 Dec 18

 

1Q 19 (+25bp)

0.75

1.00

1.00

1.25

1.25

Sw eden

Repo rate

-0.50

-302

0

11 Feb 16 (-15bp)

20 Dec 18

 

4Q 18 (+25bp)

-0.25

-0.25

0.00

0.00

0.25

Czech Republic

2-w k repo

1.75

-65

125

1 Nov 18 (+25bp)

20 Dec 18

 

1Q 19 (+25bp)

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.25

2.25

Hungary

3-m dep

0.90

-641

0

21 May 16 (-15bp)

18 Dec 18

 

3Q 19 (+20bp)

0.90

0.90

0.90

1.10

1.50

Israel

Base rate

0.25

-397

15

26 Nov 18 (+15bp)

-

 

1Q 19 (+25bp)

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.00

Poland

7-day interv

1.50

-317

0

4 Mar 15 (-50bp)

9 Jan 19

 

4Q 19 (+25bp)

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.75

Romania

Base rate

2.50

-644

75

7 May 18 (+25bp)

-

 

2Q 19 (+25bp)

2.50

2.50

2.75

3.25

3.75

Russia

Repo rate

7.50

550

-75

14 Sep 18 (+25bp)

14 Dec 18

 

Mar 19 (+25bp)

7.50

7.75

7.75

7.75

7.75

South Africa

Repo rate

6.75

-148

0

22 Nov 18 (+25bp)

17 Jan 19

 

Mar 19 (+25bp)

6.75

7.00

7.00

7.25

7.25

Turkey

1-w k repo

24.00

799

1175

13 Sep 18 (+625bp)

13 Dec 18

 

Jun 19 (-100bp)

24.00

24.00

23.00

20.50

17.50

Asia/Pacific

 

3.28

-34

11

 

 

 

 

3.28

3.30

3.32

3.36

3.41

Australia

Cash rate

1.50

-438

0

2 Aug 16 (-25bp)

5 Feb 19

 

On hold

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.50

New Zealand

Cash rate

1.75

-556

0

11 Aug 16 (-25bp)

13 Feb 18

 

On hold

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

Japan

O/N call rat

-0.10

-33

-6

28 Jan 16 (-20bp)

23 Jan 19

 

On hold

-0.10

-0.10 -0.10

-0.10

-0.10

Hong Kong

Disc. w ndw

2.50

-331

100

26 Sep 18 (+25bp)

-

 

19 Dec 18 (+25bp)

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

China

1-y r w orkin

4.35

-175

0

23 Oct 15 (-25bp)

-

 

On hold

4.35

4.35

4.35

4.35

4.35

Korea

Base rate

1.75

-233

25

30 Nov 18 (+25bp)

-

 

4Q 19 (+25bp)

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.00

Indonesia

BI rate

6.00

-368

175

15 Nov 18 (+25bp)

20 Dec 18

 

1Q 19 (+25bp)

6.00

6.25

6.50

6.75

7.00

India

Repo rate

6.50

-31

50

1 Aug 18 (+25bp)

9 Feb 19

 

3Q 19 (+25bp)

6.50

6.50

6.50

6.75

7.00

Malay sia

O/N rate

3.25

5

25

25 Jan 18 (+25bp)

-

 

On hold

3.25

3.25

3.25

3.25

3.25

Philippines

Rev repo

4.75

-229

175

15 Nov 18 (+50bp)

13 Dec 18

 

1Q 19 (+25bp)

4.75

5.00

5.00

5.00

5.00

Thailand

1-day repo

1.50

-219

0

29 Apr 15 (-25bp)

19 Dec 18

 

4Q 18 (+25bp)

1.75

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

Taiw an

Official disc.

1.38

-114

138

30 Jun 16 (-12.5bp)

20 Dec 18

 

2Q 19 (+13bp)

1.38

1.38

1.50

1.63

1.75

Source: J.P. Morgan. 1BoJ targets ¥80tn/year expansion in monetary base and sets the IOER (O/N) as policy guidance. Bold denotes move since last GDW and forecast changes. Underline denotes policy meeting during upcoming week.

Aggregates are GDP-weighted averages. 2The BI rate for Indonesia reflects announced recalibration effective August 19, 2016. 3 The Philippines introduced a recalibrated reverse repo rate effective June 3 at a level of 3.00% .

Rather than the refi rate, we now display the 1-wk dep rate, which better represents CBR policy stance and is closer to interbank market rates.

26

vk.com/id446425943

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

 

John Normand

 

 

Global Cross-Asset Strategy

 

 

 

 

 

 

(44-20) 7134-7815

 

(44-20) 7134-1816

 

 

07 December 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Marko Kolanovic, PhD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1-212) 272-1438

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Rates Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YTD chg.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YTD chg.

 

 

07-Dec*

Mar-19 Jun-19 S ep-19

Dec-19

(bp)

 

 

 

07-Dec*

Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

(bp)

US

Fed funds

2.00-2.25 2.50-2.75 2.75-3.00 3.00-3 25 3.25-3 50

75

 

UK

Base rate

0.75

1.00

1.00

1.25

1 25

25

 

3M Libor

2.77

2.95

3.20

3.45

3.70

108

 

 

3M Libor

0 91

1.05

1.05

1.30

1 30

39

 

2Y bmk yield

2.76

3.25

3.45

3.60

3.70

87

 

 

2Y bmk yield

0.75

0.95

1.10

1.20

1 35

31

 

5Y bmk yield

2.75

3.30

3.45

3.55

3.60

54

 

 

5Y bmk yield

0.80

1.05

1.20

1.30

1.40

9

 

10Y bmk yield

2.89

3.35

3.50

3.55

3.60

48

 

 

10Y bmk yield

1 28

1.65

1.75

1.85

1 90

9

 

30Y bmk yield

3.17

3.45

3.55

3.55

3 55

43

 

 

30Y bmk yield

1.84

2.10

2.15

2.20

2 25

9

 

2s/10s bmk curve

13

10

5

-5

-10

-39

 

 

2s/10s bmk curve

53

70

65

65

55

-22

 

10s/30s bmk curve

28

10

5

0

-5

-6

 

 

10s/30s bmk curve

57

45

40

35

35

0

 

2s/30s bmk curve

41

20

10

-5

-15

-44

 

 

2s/30s bmk curve

110

115

105

100

90

-22

 

2Y swap spread

16

17

18

20

21

-2

 

 

2Y swap spread

21

30

35

40

40

-8

 

5Y swap spread

13

15

17

18

19

10

 

 

5Y swap spread

47

40

40

45

50

18

 

10Y swap spread

6

9

10

11

11

8

 

 

10Y swap spread

19

10

15

20

25

10

 

30Y swap spread

-13

-2

0

2

4

8

 

 

30Y swap spread

-21

-20

-15

-10

0

11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Euro area

Refi rate

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0 25

-

 

Japan

Policy rate

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-

 

Depo rate

-0.40

-0.40

-0.40

-0.25

0.00

-

 

 

10Y yield target

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-

 

3M Euribor

-0 31

-0.32

-0.32

-0.17

0.08

1

 

 

2Y bmk yield

-0.16

-0.10

-0.10

-0.05

-0.05

-2

 

2Y bmk yield

-0.60

-0.50

-0.45

-0.30

-0.15

2

 

 

5Y bmk yield

-0.13

-0.05

-0.05

0.00

0.00

-3

 

5Y bmk yield

-0 30

-0.05

0.05

0.30

0.45

-10

 

 

10Y bmk yield

0.05

0.15

0.20

0.20

0 20

0

 

10Y bmk yield

0 26

0.55

0.65

0.90

1.00

-16

 

 

20Y bmk yield

0 56

0.75

0.80

0.85

0 90

-1

 

30Y bmk yield

0 90

1.20

1.25

1.40

1.45

-34

 

 

30Y bmk yield

0.78

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

-3

 

2s/10s bmk curve

86

105

110

120

115

-18

 

 

2s/10s bmk curve

21

25

30

25

25

2

 

10s/30s bmk curve

64

65

60

50

45

-18

 

 

10s/30s bmk curve

73

80

80

85

90

-3

 

2s/30s bmk curve

150

170

170

170

160

-36

 

 

2s/30s bmk curve

94

105

110

110

115

-1

 

2Y swap spread

46

50

48

46

44

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5Y swap spread

55

52

48

46

46

7

 

Australia

Cash rate

1 50

1.50

1.50

1.50

1 50

-

 

10Y swap spread

57

52

48

46

46

15

 

 

3Y bmk yield

1 93

2.15

2.25

2.20

2 35

-21

 

30Y swap spread

53

46

42

42

40

27

 

 

10Y bmk yield

2.45

2.80

2.90

2.90

3.00

-19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Zealand Cash rate

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

-

10Y spread

Austria

31

25

25

20

20

13

 

 

3Y bmk yield

1.79

1.90

2.05

2.00

2.05

-19

to Germany

Belgium

50

50

45

40

35

29

 

 

10Y bmk yield

2.43

2.80

2.90

2.90

3.00

-37

(curve adj.)

Finland

28

30

25

20

20

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

France

40

40

35

30

30

14

 

Sweden

Repo rate

-0 50

-0.25

-0.25

0.00

0 25

-

 

Ireland

67

55

50

45

45

32

 

 

2-year govt

-0.44

-0.25

-0.15

0.05

0.15

-2

 

Italy

285

325

300

240

225

133

 

 

10-year govt

0.46

0.85

0.95

1.15

1 20

-29

 

Netherlands

15

15

15

10

10

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portugal

153

150

145

130

115

6

 

Norway

Depo rate

0.75

1.00

1.00

1.25

1 25

25

 

Spain

120

120

115

110

100

14

 

 

2-year govt

1.14

1.40

1.50

1.70

1 90

27

 

Wtd. peri. spread

223

243

225

187

174

90

 

 

10-year govt

1.74

2.15

2.30

2.60

2.70

18

Source: J.P. Morgan

27

vk.com/id446425943

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

 

John Normand

 

 

 

 

Global Cross-Asset Strategy

 

 

 

 

 

(44-20) 7134-7815

 

 

(44-20) 7134-1816

 

 

 

07 December 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

nikolaos panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Marko Kolanovic, PhD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1-212) 272-1438

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FX Forecasts vs. Forwards & Consensus

 

 

 

 

 

Exchange rates vs. U.S dollar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPM forecast gain/loss vs December 19*

 

Actual change in local FX vs USD

Majors

 

 

7-Dec

Mar 19

 

Jun 19

 

Sep 19

 

Dec 19

 

 

Spot

Forwards

Consensus**

 

Past 1mo

Past 3mo

YTD

Past 12mos

 

EUR

1.14

1.11

 

1.13

 

1.16

 

1.18

 

 

3.7%

0.2%

-1.7%

 

-0.4%

-1.5%

-5.3%

-3.3%

 

JPY

112.8

116.0

 

118.0

 

115.0

 

112.0

 

0.7%

-2.7%

-2.7%

0.7%

-1.6%

-0.1%

0.3%

 

GBP

1.27

1.31

 

1.33

 

1.36

 

1.37

 

 

7.8%

5.7%

0.9%

 

-3.0%

-1.4%

-5.7%

-5.5%

 

AUD

0.72

0.70

 

0.69

 

0.68

 

0.68

 

-5.9%

-6.6%

-9.3%

-0.7%

1.7%

-7.4%

-3.8%

 

CAD

1.33

1.33

 

1.30

 

1.28

 

1.26

 

 

5.4%

4.7%

0.0%

 

-1.3%

-0.9%

-5.5%

-3.2%

 

NZD

0.69

0.64

 

0.63

 

0.62

 

0.61

 

-11.2%

-11.8%

-10.3%

1.2%

5.1%

-3.3%

0.6%

JPM USD index

123.1

125.3

 

125.5

 

124.7

 

123.8

 

 

0.6%

0.4%

2.9%

 

0.8%

1.5%

5.7%

4.8%

DXY

 

 

96.7

98.3

 

97.0

 

94.7

 

93.1

 

-3.8%

-0.9%

1.4%

0.8%

1.4%

4.9%

3.1%

Europe, Middle East & Africa

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

0.99

1.01

 

1.00

 

0.98

 

0.975

 

 

1.9%

-2.0%

0.0%

 

1.0%

-2.4%

-1.8%

0.2%

 

ILS

3.74

3.65

 

3.65

 

3.60

 

3.55

 

5.3%

2.1%

2.5%

-1.8%

-3.9%

-7.0%

-5.9%

 

SEK

9.03

9.10

 

8.89

 

8.66

 

8.52

 

 

6.0%

2.6%

-4.1%

 

0.0%

0.4%

-9.4%

-6.0%

 

NOK

8.49

8.51

 

8.32

 

8.10

 

7.97

 

6.6%

4.9%

-4.0%

-1.7%

-0.5%

-3.5%

-2.1%

 

CZK

22.73

23.24

 

22.83

 

22.24

 

21.86

 

 

4.0%

2.5%

-4.3%

 

-0.4%

-2.2%

-6.5%

-4.4%

 

PLN

3.77

3.87

 

3.81

 

3.66

 

3.60

 

4.6%

3.4%

-1.7%

-0.4%

-0.9%

-7.5%

-5.1%

 

HUF

284

297

 

296

 

293

 

292

 

 

-2.9%

-5.4%

-7.9%

 

-0.9%

-0.9%

-8.8%

-5.8%

 

RUB

66.19

68.50

 

68.00

 

67.50

 

67.00

 

-1.2%

3.8%

0.0%

0.2%

5.6%

-12.9%

-10.6%

 

TRY

5.29

5.70

 

6.00

 

6.50

 

7.00

 

 

-24.5%

-9.9%

-10.3%

 

1.4%

21.3%

-28.3%

-26.9%

 

ZAR

14.00

15.00

 

15.50

 

16.00

 

16.50

 

-15.2%

-11.0%

-17.6%

-0.7%

8.8%

-11.5%

-1.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Americas

ARS

37.31

40.00

 

42.00

 

44.00

 

46.00

 

 

-18.9%

15.9%

0.0%

 

-4.4%

-0.9%

-50.1%

-53.7%

 

BRL

3.87

3.80

 

4.00

 

4.10

 

4.10

 

-5.5%

-2.6%

-9.5%

-3.5%

4.8%

-14.6%

-15.0%

 

CLP

674

710

 

720

 

745

 

760

 

 

-11.3%

-11.3%

-11.6%

 

0.3%

-2.7%

-8.7%

-2.7%

 

COP

3155

3125

 

3150

 

3175

 

3200

 

-1.4%

0.3%

-5.8%

-0.4%

-2.7%

-5.3%

-4.6%

 

MXN

20.22

20.25

 

20.50

 

20.75

 

20.75

 

 

-2.5%

3.9%

-4.6%

 

-1.7%

-4.5%

-2.8%

-6.2%

 

PEN

3.37

3.36

 

3.38

 

3.39

 

3.40

 

-1.0%

0.5%

-2.9%

-0.1%

-1.3%

-3.9%

-3.9%

 

VES†

 

188

10000

 

50000

 

100000

 

500000

 

 

na

na

na

 

-65.6%

-67.3%

na

na

LACI

 

 

54.2

53.8

 

52.3

 

51.2

 

50.8

 

-6.2%

0.7%

-6.6%

-2.2%

0.0%

-13.7%

-14.8%

Asia

CNY

6.87

7.09

 

7.15

 

7.19

 

7.20

 

-4.5%

-3.7%

-5.0%

0.7%

-0.4%

-5.3%

-3.7%

 

HKD

7.82

7.83

 

7.83

 

7.84

 

7.84

 

 

-0.3%

-0.9%

-0.4%

 

0.2%

0.4%

0.0%

-0.1%

 

IDR

14480

15000

 

15200

 

15400

 

15450

 

-6.3%

-0.8%

-5.0%

0.8%

2.3%

-6.3%

-6.4%

 

INR

70.81

73.50

 

74.25

 

75.00

 

75.50

 

 

-6.2%

-1.5%

-5.6%

 

3.1%

1.3%

-10.1%

-8.8%

 

KRW

1120

1145

 

1155

 

1145

 

1130

 

-0.9%

-2.6%

-0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

-4.4%

-2.3%

 

MYR

4.17

4.24

 

4.28

 

4.27

 

4.26

 

 

-2.2%

-1.7%

-1.4%

 

-0.1%

-0.5%

-2.9%

-1.9%

 

PHP

52.71

54.00

 

54.75

 

55.00

 

55.25

 

-4.6%

-2.2%

-2.3%

0.5%

1.9%

-5.3%

-3.9%

 

SGD

1.37

1.40

 

1.41

 

1.40

 

1.39

 

 

-1.5%

-2.5%

-2.9%

 

0.2%

0.6%

-2.5%

-1.3%

 

TWD

30.84

31.30

 

31.50

 

31.40

 

31.00

 

-0.5%

-3.7%

0.0%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-3.4%

-2.6%

 

THB

32.81

33.50

 

33.70

 

33.50

 

33.40

 

 

-1.8%

-3.0%

-0.3%

 

-0.1%

0.0%

-0.7%

-0.5%

ADXY

 

 

104.8

102.2

 

101.5

 

101.3

 

101.5

 

-3.2%

-2.7%

-2.7%

0.2%

0.0%

-4.5%

-3.4%

EMCI

 

 

62.1

60.4

 

59.4

 

58.4

 

57.8

 

 

-6.9%

-3.8%

-7.3%

 

-0.7%

2.4%

-10.9%

-9.0%

Exchange rates vs Euro

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual change in local FX vs EUR

 

JPY

128.3

128.8

 

133.3

 

133.4

 

132.2

 

 

-2.9%

-2.9%

-1.0%

 

1.1%

-0.1%

5.4%

3.8%

 

GBP

0.894

0.850

 

0.850

 

0.855

 

0.860

 

3.9%

5.5%

2.6%

-2.6%

0.0%

-0.6%

-2.2%

 

CHF

1.13

1.12

 

1.13

 

1.14

 

1.15

 

 

-1.8%

-2.2%

1.7%

 

1.4%

-0.9%

3.6%

3.6%

 

SEK

10.27

10.10

 

10.05

 

10.05

 

10.05

 

2.2%

2.4%

-2.5%

0.4%

1.9%

-4.3%

-2.7%

 

NOK

9.67

9.45

 

9.40

 

9.40

 

9.40

 

 

2.8%

4.7%

-2.3%

 

-1.3%

1.0%

1.9%

1.3%

 

CZK

25.87

25.80

 

25.80

 

25.80

 

25.80

 

0.3%

2.3%

-2.7%

0.0%

-0.7%

-1.3%

-1.1%

 

PLN

4.29

4.30

 

4.30

 

4.25

 

4.25

 

 

0.9%

3.3%

0.0%

 

0.0%

0.6%

-2.5%

-1.8%

 

HUF

323

330

 

335

 

340

 

345

 

-6.4%

-5.6%

-6.4%

-0.5%

0.6%

-3.9%

-2.5%

 

RON

4.65

4.75

 

4.85

 

4.95

 

4.95

 

 

-6.1%

-2.2%

-4.0%

 

0.3%

-0.5%

0.7%

-0.4%

 

TRY

6.02

6.33

 

6.78

 

7.54

 

8.26

 

-27.1%

-10.0%

-8.8%

1.8%

23.1%

-24.3%

-24.4%

 

RUB

75.32

76.04

 

76.84

 

78.30

 

79.06

 

 

-4.7%

3.6%

1.7%

 

0.5%

7.3%

-7.5%

-7.5%

 

BRL

4.41

4.22

 

4.52

 

4.76

 

4.84

 

-8.9%

-2.7%

-8.0%

-2.9%

6.9%

-9.7%

-12.0%

 

MXN

23.01

22.48

 

23.17

 

24.07

 

24.49

 

 

-6.0%

3.8%

-3.0%

 

-1.4%

-3.0%

2.6%

-2.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

indicates a revision resulting in a stronger currency forecast, indicates a revision resulting in a weaker currency forecast. Source: J.P.Morgan

*Positive indicates JPM more bullish on local currency than spot, consensus or forward rates. ** BloombergFX Consensus Forecasts. *** JPM USD Index caluclations assume flat VES forecasts

† DICOM

Source: J.P. Morgan

28

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Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

John Normand

Global Cross-Asset Strategy

(44-20) 7134-7815

(44-20) 7134-1816

07 December 2018

nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com john.normand@jpmorgan.com

Marko Kolanovic, PhD (1-212) 272-1438

marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.com

Global Commodities Price Forecasts

Source: J.P. Morgan

29

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