GS Europe Banks_watermark
.pdfvk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
Europe Banks
Exhibit 9: ECB funding usage driven by TLTRO 2... |
Exhibit 10: ...with Italian and Spanish banks making up over half of the total take-up... |
ECB facility use (MRO+LTRO), € bn |
ECB funding € bn |
1,400 |
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1,260 |
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450 |
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Greece |
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Ireland |
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Portugal |
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Spain |
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Italy |
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MRO |
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400 |
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1,200 |
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LTRO |
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350 |
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MRO + LTRO |
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1,000 |
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300 |
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800 |
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733 |
250 |
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245 |
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600 |
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200 |
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168 |
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150 |
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400 |
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100 |
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200 |
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50 |
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0 |
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8 |
0 |
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20 |
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5 |
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08-Jan |
08-Jul |
09-Jul 09-Jan |
10-Jul 10-Jan |
11-Jan |
11-Jul |
12-Jul 12-Jan |
13-Jan |
13-Jul |
14-Jan |
14-Jul |
15-Jan |
15-Jul |
16-Jan |
16-Jul |
17-Jan |
17-Jul |
18-Jan |
18-Jul |
Jun-10 |
Dec-10 |
Jun-11 |
Dec-11 |
Jun-12 |
Dec-12 |
Jun-13 |
Dec-13 |
Jun-14 |
Dec-14 |
Jun-15 |
Dec-15 |
Jun-16 |
Dec-16 |
Jun-17 |
Dec-17 |
Jun-18 |
Source: Datastream
Exhibit 11: ...while Greek banks have reduced reliance on ECB funding
ECB funding as a % of banking assets
40% |
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Ireland |
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Portugal |
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Greece |
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Spain |
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Italy |
35% |
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32% |
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30% |
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25% |
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20% |
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15% |
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10% |
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5% |
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7% |
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4% |
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0% |
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1% |
Mar-09 |
Sep-09 |
Mar-10 |
Sep-10 Mar-11 |
Sep-11 |
Mar-12 |
Sep-12 Mar-13 |
Sep-13 |
Mar-14 |
Sep-14 Mar-15 |
Sep-15 |
Mar-16 |
Sep-16 Mar-17 |
Sep-17 |
Mar-18 |
Source: ECB, NCBs, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 12: No material change in the take-up of MRO in 2018
MRO (€bn)
MRO
34 |
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34 |
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33 |
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32 |
32 |
31 |
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32 |
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30 |
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28 |
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27 |
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24 |
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21 |
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15 |
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15 |
14 |
16 |
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13 |
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14 |
12 |
12 12 |
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13 |
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14 |
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12 |
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8 |
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7 |
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7 |
5 6 5 |
5 |
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5 |
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33 |
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2 2 |
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6-Jan-17 |
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27-Jan-17 |
17-Feb-17 |
10-Mar-17 |
31-Mar-17 |
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21-Apr-17 |
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12-May-17 |
2-Jun-17 |
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23-Jun-17 14-Jul-17 |
4-Aug-17 |
25-Aug-17 |
15-Sep-17 |
6-Oct-17 |
27-Oct-17 |
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17-Nov-17 |
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8-Dec-17 |
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29-Dec-17 19-Jan-18 |
9-Feb-18 |
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2-Mar-18 |
23-Mar-18 |
13-Apr-18 |
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4-May-18 |
25-May-18 |
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15-Jun-18 |
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6-Jul-18 |
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27-Jul-18 |
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17-Aug-18 |
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7-Sep-18 28-Sep-18 |
Source: ECB, NCBs, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: DataStream |
16 November 2018 |
<< |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
Europe Banks
Exhibit 13: The ECB US$ facility is still in place though currently unused
US$bn
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
07-Dec |
08-Mar |
08-Jun |
08-Sep |
08-Dec |
09-Mar |
09-Jun |
09-Sep |
09-Dec |
10-Mar |
10-Jun |
10-Sep |
10-Dec |
11-Mar |
11-Jun |
11-Sep |
11-Dec |
12-Mar |
12-Jun |
12-Sep |
12-Dec |
13-Mar |
13-Jun |
13-Sep |
13-Dec |
14-Mar |
14-Jun |
14-Sep |
14-Dec |
15-Mar |
15-Jun |
15-Sep |
15-Dec |
16-Mar |
16-Jun |
16-Sep |
16-Dec |
17-Mar |
17-Jun |
17-Sep |
17-Dec |
18-Mar |
18-Jun |
18-Sep |
Source: European Central Bank, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Rating and pricing information
Lloyds Banking Group (S/N, 55.45p) and Standard Chartered (B/N, 596.60p)
16 November 2018 |
<2 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
Appendix: Our economists’ views on Brexit
Europe Banks
In this section, we highlight the views of our economists on Brexit published in their recent note. For more details,
please see Brexit — Withdrawal Disagreement.
Our economists maintain their base case that the Withdrawal Agreement struck between the EU and the UK will be ratified by the House of Commons by the end of the year, and ratified by the European Parliament before the end of March 2019, although the risks to that view have clearly intensified.
If, at first pass, the Withdrawal Agreement does not garner a majority in the House of Commons, our economists see three viable destinations :
nDestination 1: A successful, second attempt in Parliament. Presumably, this would require some amendments to the current Withdrawal Agreement. The response of companies, households and financial markets to a fraught political environment may also affect the stance taken by those MPs who vote down the initial deal.
nDestination 2: A second referendum. This would require a more fundamental change in policy stance, on the part of both major parties. Senior ministers in the Conservative Party have, thus far, ruled out the possibility of a second referendum, ostensibly as a matter of principle. Senior ministers in the Labour Party have prioritised a general election over a second referendum, arguing that a new government should come to power if PM May cannot deliver a workable deal.
nDestination 3: A “no deal” cliff-edge departure. Suppose that, irrespective of the government of the day, Article 50 is not extended. The UK would move directly to WTO tariffs in its trade with the EU. Non-tariff barriers would come into force.
16 November 2018 |
<3 |