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vk.com/id446425943

Barclays | Oil & Gas Weekly

Sector share price performance

BP vs. Royal Dutch Shell

110

 

105

 

100

 

95

 

90

 

85

 

Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18

Sep-18 Nov-18

Royal Dutch Shell vs. Exxon Mobil

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

 

 

 

 

 

Nov-17

Jan-18 Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

BP vs. Exxon Mobil

 

 

 

 

120

 

 

 

 

 

115

 

 

 

 

 

110

 

 

 

 

 

105

 

 

 

 

 

100

 

 

 

 

 

95

 

 

 

 

 

90

 

 

 

 

 

85

 

 

 

 

 

Nov-17

Jan-18 Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

US Services vs. European Services

 

 

 

130

 

 

 

 

 

120

 

 

 

 

 

110

 

 

 

 

 

100

 

 

 

 

 

90

 

 

 

 

 

80

 

 

 

 

 

70

 

 

 

 

 

Nov-17

Jan-18 Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Source: Datastream, Barclays Research

Exxon Mobil vs. Chevron

110

 

105

 

100

 

95

 

90

 

85

 

80

 

75

 

Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18

Sep-18 Nov-18

Total vs. Royal Dutch Shell

115

 

110

 

105

 

100

 

95

 

90

 

85

 

80

 

Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18

Sep-18 Nov-18

US Refiners vs. EU refiners

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

 

Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18

Sep-18 Nov-18

US Integrateds vs. European Integrateds

120

 

110

 

100

 

90

 

80

 

70

 

Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18

Sep-18 Nov-18

The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds and the Services are the corresponding FTSE 300 indices. The US market is the S&P500 and US Integrateds, Refiners and Services are the corresponding sector indices. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated based on an arithmetic average across our coverage. The GEM market is bespoke Global Emerging Markets index from Datastream and the GEM Integrateds index is the corresponding sector index.

27 November 2018

11

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Barclays | Oil & Gas Weekly

Integrateds and Refiners

Valuations

 

 

 

 

 

EV:EBIDA, x

 

P/E, x

 

FCF yield, %

Dividend yield, %

 

RoACE, %

 

Barclays

Cons

Difference

 

 

Price

Target

Up/(Down)

 

 

 

 

2018

2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Company

Rating

23-Nov

Price

side, %

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

EPS

EPS

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BP

OW

513

705

38

5.8

5.0

4.7

11.1

8.9

8.6

6.0

10.5

11.2

5.8

5.9

6.0

10.0

12.1

12.3

0.5

0.5

(0.6)

Chevron

OW

114

148

30

6.9

6.1

5.3

13.1

10.8

9.3

7.7

10.6

13.2

4.0

4.1

4.3

9.1

10.8

12.0

8.7

8.3

3.7

Exxon Mobil Corp

UW

75.5

87.0

15

8.8

7.9

6.8

15.6

13.6

10.8

5.7

5.7

6.9

4.2

4.5

4.8

nm

nm

nm

4.9

4.8

1.3

Royal Dutch Shell A

OW

2,301

3,300

43

6.8

5.3

4.9

11.3

7.4

6.8

7.4

12.7

13.5

6.0

5.9

5.9

8.5

12.6

13.3

2.6

2.7

(3.1)

Royal Dutch Shell B

OW

2,333

3,300

41

6.9

5.3

5.0

11.5

7.5

6.9

7.3

12.5

13.3

5.9

5.8

5.8

8.5

12.6

13.3

2.6

2.7

(2.9)

Total

OW

47.6

66.0

39

6.0

5.2

4.8

9.8

7.3

6.6

6.5

11.5

12.5

5.4

5.5

5.7

11.1

13.6

14.1

5.5

5.5

0.8

Average Majors

 

 

 

34

6.9

5.8

5.2

12.1

9.3

8.2

6.8

10.6

11.8

5.2

5.3

5.4

9.4

12.4

13.0

 

 

(0.1)

Eni

UW

14.1

19.0

35

4.6

4.1

3.8

11.3

9.9

9.3

10.3

9.9

10.9

5.9

6.1

6.2

8.2

9.6

10.2

1.2

1.3

(0.8)

Equinor

OW

194.0

280.0

44

4.5

3.9

4.0

10.8

9.7

9.6

12.7

13.0

11.1

4.1

4.2

4.3

13.0

14.0

14.4

2.1

2.1

(1.1)

Galp Energia

UW

14.4

18.0

25

8.0

6.9

6.1

15.6

15.5

14.1

5.0

9.0

10.6

4.2

4.5

4.9

11.9

12.5

14.4

0.9

0.9

0.6

OMV

EW

44.2

62.0

40

4.7

4.2

3.7

9.2

7.4

6.7

16.9

16.1

18.1

3.7

4.0

4.2

12.8

14.5

15.4

4.8

5.0

(4.2)

Repsol

OW

14.9

19.5

31

5.3

4.2

3.8

9.6

7.0

6.3

4.1

10.2

12.0

6.4

6.7

7.1

8.9

10.0

10.6

1.5

1.6

(6.2)

Average Euros

 

 

 

35

5.4

4.7

4.3

11.3

9.9

9.2

9.8

11.7

12.5

4.9

5.1

5.3

11.0

12.1

13.0

 

 

(2.4)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Neste

OW

67.9

85.0

25

10.6

10.7

10.1

16.2

15.2

14.8

6.1

6.0

6.4

3.2

3.3

3.4

20.6

17.9

15.3

4.2

4.1

3.1

Saras

UW

1.80

1.70

(6)

7.1

5.9

5.4

18.5

12.7

11.2

0.9

3.6

6.4

2.7

3.9

4.5

10.8

13.2

14.0

0.1

0.1

(14.9)

Average Refiners

 

 

 

10

8.9

8.3

7.7

17.4

14.0

13.0

3.5

4.8

6.4

3.0

3.6

3.9

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

 

(5.9)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share price performances

Local Price

23-Nov

-1d

-5d

-10d

-30d

MTD

QTD

YTD

3Q18

2Q18

1Q18

4Q17

3Q17

2Q 17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Indices & markets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FTSE All

3,812

-0.6

-1.1

-4.0

-3.6

-2.1

-9.3

-14.5

-3.0

1.6

-4.4

5.1

4.5

4.2

StoxxEuro

345

-0.2

-2.1

-3.2

-4.2

-2.1

-10.9

-15.4

-0.2

-4.3

-0.6

0.7

8.1

6.3

S&P 500

2,633

-0.7

-3.8

-5.3

-4.9

-2.9

-9.7

-1.5

7.2

2.9

-1.2

6.1

4.0

2.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BP

513

-2.9

-2.6

-3.8

-10.6

-9.5

-14.6

-7.2

0.7

13.6

-4.9

10.4

11.3

0.5

Chevron

114

-3.4

-4.6

-4.9

-3.5

1.7

-7.1

-9.3

-3.3

10.9

-8.9

6.5

12.6

-2.8

ExxonMobil

75.5

-2.7

-4.4

-6.7

-7.2

-5.3

-11.2

-9.7

2.8

10.9

-10.8

2.0

1.5

-1.6

Royal Dutch Shell A

26.0

-3.9

-4.5

-6.2

-9.5

-7.6

-14.1

-11.6

-1.2

9.6

-5.0

10.4

14.1

0.7

Royal Dutch Shell B

2,333

-4.4

-5.2

-6.9

-9.6

-8.9

-14.8

-12.0

-2.1

12.2

-5.9

10.2

14.9

-1.9

Total

47.6

-3.5

-5.2

-5.8

-11.8

-8.3

-16.8

-2.4

6.4

7.4

2.6

2.9

8.8

-2.6

Arithmetic Average

 

-3.5

-4.4

-5.7

-8.7

-6.3

-13.1

-8.7

0.5

10.8

-5.5

7.1

10.6

-1.3

Eni

14.1

-2.3

-6.1

-9.1

-11.7

-10.4

-15.7

-3.7

1.8

5.7

6.0

0.1

10.3

-8.6

Equinor

194

-4.5

-8.6

-8.7

-16.4

-13.4

-19.8

5.5

6.2

12.9

9.8

7.0

21.1

-3.3

Galp

14.4

-2.5

-3.5

-2.6

-9.7

-6.3

-17.7

-11.2

4.1

1.3

2.3

3.8

17.3

-0.6

OMV

44.2

-3.6

-5.4

-9.6

-10.4

-9.9

-10.8

-21.0

-0.9

-2.5

-8.3

8.9

12.5

31.4

Repsol

14.9

-3.2

-5.5

-6.3

-10.7

-6.0

-15.4

-2.0

1.9

13.7

0.1

-1.5

20.6

1.6

Arithmetic Average

 

-3.2

-5.8

-7.3

-11.8

-9.2

-15.9

-6.5

2.6

6.2

2.0

3.7

16.3

4.1

Neste

67.9

-1.7

-6.1

-4.5

-3.9

-6.6

-6.9

20.2

5.4

12.7

8.7

46.7

11.0

0.6

Saras

1.80

3.4

6.7

8.1

-1.4

4.5

-4.7

-15.2

-11.7

10.5

-8.9

-10.3

15.3

21.3

Arithmetic Average

 

-0.7

0.5

1.5

-0.9

2.6

-3.8

-3.8

11.3

-4.5

-5.3

3.3

11.5

21.3

Note: The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts DCF methodology; those for the US are based on return on market capitalization under mid-cycle assumptions. Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research

27 November 2018

12

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Barclays | Oil & Gas Weekly

Oil Services

Valuations

 

 

 

 

 

 

EV:EBITDA, x

 

P/E, x

 

FCF yield, %

Dividend yield, %

 

RoACE, %

 

Barclays

Cons

Difference

 

 

 

Price

Target

Up/(Down)

 

 

 

 

 

2018

2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Company

Rating

23-Nov

Price

side, %

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

EPS

EPS

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aker Solutions

UW

43.5

69.0

59

8.2

7.3

6.0

 

22.9

19.5

14.9

9.3

(1.4)

5.8

-

1.5

2.0

8.2

8.9

10.6

 

1.9

2.0

(5.9)

 

CGG

OW

1.3

3.0

132

3.5

2.5

1.8

 

1.6

nm

6.9

(8)

3

21

-

-

-

5.5

2.4

6.6

 

0.9

NA

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GMS

EW

35.8

59.0

65

8.9

6.2

5.7

 

39.8

6.8

6.3

(12)

23

23

-

-

-

3.5

6.0

6.2

 

0.0

0.0

nm

Hunting

EW

564.5

1000.0

77

7.8

6.0

4.4

 

16.2

14.2

10.4

3

7

10

1.4

1.5

1.8

6.8

7.9

10.7

 

0.4

0.6

(25.8)

 

Maire Tecnimont

OW

3.2

5.6

73

5.6

5.1

3.6

 

9.4

8.9

8.0

3

12

14

3.8

4.9

5.4

nm

65.7

72.4

 

0.3

0.3

0.8

 

Petrofac

OW

4.8

10.0

107

4.3

4.4

3.1

 

6.0

6.3

5.7

(8)

28

18

5.9

6.2

6.8

15.4

33.7

46.9

 

0.8

0.8

6.0

 

PGS

OW

18.9

47.0

148

3.9

2.8

2.2

 

nm

nm

12.1

6

20

27

-

-

-

(3.8)

2.7

5.9

 

(0.4)

(0.2)

51.2

 

Saipem

OW

3.50

6.6

89

4.9

6.0

5.0

 

nm

nm

21.3

1.8

3.8

3.7

-

-

-

2.4

2.9

5.5

 

0.0

0.1

(54.5)

 

SBM Offshore

EW

13.02

19.20

47

7.6

7.4

6.3

 

10.2

23.3

14.6

3.4

8.0

2.1

2.4

1.1

1.7

5.5

5.8

7.8

 

1.3

1.0

22.8

 

Subsea 7

OW

86.14

185.00

115

4.3

5.0

3.5

 

20.9

34.1

13.8

6.9

9.1

10.6

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.2

2.0

4.8

 

0.5

0.5

(9.8)

 

TechnipFMC

EW

19.85

29.00

46

7.9

9.3

7.5

 

18.9

18.7

13.4

(3.3)

3.0

8.5

2.3

2.3

2.4

5.6

4.8

6.6

 

1.2

1.2

(4.6)

 

Tecnicas Reunidas

EW

22.34

36.00

61

11.2

5.4

3.7

 

26.6

10.5

8.0

(3.3)

9.2

16.4

4.0

5.8

6.7

5.5

12.1

15.9

 

0.8

0.7

13.8

 

Tenaris

OW

11.63

19.00

63

9.3

6.9

5.4

 

17.2

12.5

9.8

2.2

8.8

9.1

3.3

3.6

3.4

6.3

9.1

11.7

 

0.8

0.7

8.4

 

TGS

UW

233.40

335.00

44

4.4

3.9

3.1

 

19.0

15.0

10.6

9.1

6.5

7.4

2.7

3.4

4.1

15.9

22.0

30.1

 

1.4

1.4

1.7

 

Vallourec

UW

1.70

5.80

241

25.8

8.2

5.7

 

nm

nm

8.8

(54.0)

(17.2)

4.1

-

-

3.4

nm

nm

nm

 

(1.0)

(0.9)

7.3

 

Wood Group

UW

5.88

9.10

55

9.1

7.4

5.9

 

12.5

9.8

8.0

9.3

8.3

11.8

4.6

4.7

4.8

8.2

9.9

12.2

 

0.6

0.5

31.1

 

Average Europe

 

 

 

 

89

7.9

5.9

4.6

 

17.0

15.0

10.8

(2.2)

8.2

12.0

3.4

3.5

3.9

6.3

13.1

16.9

 

 

 

3.0

 

Share price performances

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23-Nov

-1d

-5d

-10d

-30d

 

MTD

 

QTD

YTD

3Q18

 

2Q18

 

1Q18

4Q17

 

3Q17

2Q 17

 

Indices & markets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FTSE All

 

 

3,812

-0.6

-1.1

-4.0

-3.6

 

-2.1

 

-9.3

-14.5

-3.0

 

1.6

 

-4.4

5.1

 

4.5

4.2

 

StoxxEuro

 

 

345

-0.2

-2.1

-3.2

-4.2

 

-2.1

 

-10.9

-15.4

-0.2

 

-4.3

 

-0.6

0.7

 

8.1

6.3

 

S&P 500

 

 

2,633

-0.7

-3.8

-5.3

-4.9

 

-2.9

 

-9.7

 

-1.5

7.2

 

2.9

 

-1.2

6.1

 

4.0

2.6

 

Aker Solutions

 

 

44

-4.0

-13.5

-16.8

-24.5

 

-23.4

 

-28.7

-10.3

1.6

 

32.5

 

-6.5

6.7

 

17.6

-25.3

 

CGG

 

 

1.3

-5.6

-10.5

-15.6

-41.9

 

-39.7

 

-47.6

-33.1

12.7

 

25.3

 

-9.7

-17.9

 

20.6

-34.7

 

Gulf Marine Services

 

 

35.8

2.2

-0.7

-4.9

-21.4

 

-13.1

 

-26.3

-24.7

13.3

 

11.9

 

-19.3

-5.5

 

-9.9

-18.4

 

Hunting

 

 

565

-5.8

-9.6

-13.0

-26.0

 

-16.2

 

-29.0

-11.7

-0.6

 

8.8

 

15.1

28.7

 

0.3

-10.3

 

Maire Tecnimont

 

 

3.23

-1.4

-0.4

-6.1

-14.8

 

-16.4

 

-18.7

-29.4

0.2

 

-12.6

 

-0.9

-6.3

 

19.3

23.9

 

Petrofac

 

 

484

-5.6

-10.4

-17.3

-23.8

 

-16.2

 

-26.7

-10.2

9.5

 

8.5

 

3.1

14.3

 

5.2

-50.0

 

Petroleum Geo-Services

 

18.9

-2.8

-11.4

-18.1

-46.2

 

-29.6

 

-50.9

 

8.4

-4.1

 

51.7

 

51.7

-14.0

 

36.7

-34.4

 

Saipem

 

 

3.5

-3.5

-16.2

-21.2

-30.9

 

-27.6

 

-35.7

-13.2

33.9

 

17.7

 

-14.4

6.0

 

16.9

-18.9

 

SBM Offshore

 

 

13.0

-3.0

-10.1

-11.0

-19.8

 

-14.7

 

-18.4

-16.2

16.4

 

-2.7

 

-9.3

-2.9

 

13.4

-2.7

 

Subsea 7

 

 

86

-5.4

-16.4

-13.2

-27.8

 

-20.8

 

-32.2

-33.3

-7.6

 

25.3

 

-15.1

-8.4

 

22.5

-13.3

 

TechnipFMC

 

 

19.9

-3.3

-6.0

-11.0

-25.6

 

-15.6

 

-28.5

-27.5

-1.4

 

9.9

 

-6.4

12.1

 

2.2

-17.2

 

Tecnicas Reunidas

 

 

22.3

-0.7

-1.2

-0.7

-11.3

 

-5.8

 

-17.7

-20.2

-4.4

 

9.2

 

-7.1

0.5

 

-18.1

-2.3

 

Tenaris

 

 

11.6

-2.2

-6.4

-10.3

-19.0

 

-11.4

 

-21.3

-16.5

-8.7

 

6.9

 

8.6

11.4

 

-8.9

-9.4

 

TGS

 

 

233.4

-3.2

-8.9

-9.5

-25.2

 

-19.3

 

-33.3

14.5

10.7

 

51.0

 

2.7

-0.3

 

16.6

-3.6

 

Vallourec

 

 

1.7

0.3

-35.2

-56.2

-64.4

 

-59.4

 

-67.2

-68.1

-0.9

 

12.0

 

-12.4

1.7

 

-2.0

-8.9

 

Wood Group

 

 

588

-6.4

-9.8

-13.2

-22.7

 

-17.6

 

-25.2

-14.4

21.4

 

9.4

 

-13.9

-3.7

 

9.7

-12.5

 

Arithmetic Average

 

 

 

-3.2

-10.0

-14.6

-26.9

 

-21.2

 

-30.4

-17.6

3.8

 

20.9

 

-1.2

0.9

 

10.8

-15.9

 

Note: The price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts DCF methodology. Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research

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E&Ps

Valuations

 

 

 

 

 

EV:EBITDA, x

 

P/E, x

 

FCF yield, %

Dividend yield, %

EV/DACFx

 

Barclays

Cons

Difference

 

 

Price

Target

Up/(Down)

 

 

 

2018

2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Company

Rating

23-Nov

Price

side, %

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

18F

19F

20F

EPS

EPS

%

Aker BP

UW

223.8

335.0

50

3.7

3.3

2.2

16.6

20.8

11.7

15.8

(3.0)

4.7

5.1

6.1

7.2

3.8

7.2

5.0

1.6

1.6

(3.2)

Africa Oil Corp.

OW

7.9

13.0

64

nm

nm

nm

nm

nm

nm

(2.1)

(12.6)

(33.7)

-

-

-

 

 

 

(0.1)

(0.1)

35.2

Cairn Energy

OW

165.5

300.0

81

6.9

4.0

3.1

20.4

24.7

15.3

(1.2)

(0.4)

4.7

-

-

-

5.5

3.8

3.3

0.1

0.1

nm

Enquest PLC

EW

22.5

45.0

100

3.2

1.6

0.8

nm

2.5

2.2

(20.0)

(2.1)

46.2

-

-

-

4.9

2.2

1.1

(0.0)

0.1

nm

Faroe Petroleum

UW

125.8

160.0

27

2.2

2.5

1.7

17.8

13.8

8.8

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.0

-

-

-

3.6

3.7

2.7

7.1

16.0

(55.6)

International Petroleu

UW

31.7

56.0

77

1.9

1.6

0.8

3.7

3.3

3.0

(4.9)

6.6

30.0

-

-

-

2.6

2.4

1.7

1.0

1.0

(5.8)

Kosmos Energy Ltd.

OW

5.7

12.3

116

8.9

3.1

2.4

nm

15.0

8.0

(3.5)

2.9

2.9

-

3.0

3.0

6.4

3.4

2.4

(0.7)

(0.2)

nm

Lundin Petroleum

OW

226.7

350.0

54

6.1

5.8

2.8

21.3

30.6

11.9

1.9

5.0

7.0

5.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

4.5

1.2

1.3

(11.7)

Premier Oil

OW

64.9

130.0

100

3.2

2.2

1.7

7.8

3.1

2.4

(25.9)

0.3

(0.3)

-

-

-

3.8

2.5

1.9

0.1

0.2

(51.0)

Savannah Petroleum

OW

27.5

43.0

56

nm

3.5

2.3

nm

9.5

6.0

(49.0)

5.0

12.2

-

3.6

3.6

 

4.8

4.0

(0.0)

0.0

-

Tullow Oil

OW

172.4

315.0

83

3.7

2.8

2.0

6.5

5.4

4.7

3.0

(0.1)

17.9

-

-

-

4.6

3.3

2.5

0.3

0.3

17.5

Average Europe

 

 

 

74

4.4

3.0

2.0

13.4

12.9

7.4

(7.8)

0.2

8.3

5.0

4.9

5.2

4.5

3.9

2.9

 

 

17.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share price performances

 

23-Nov

-1d

-5d

-10d

-30d

MTD

QTD

YTD

3Q18

2Q18

1Q18

4Q17

3Q17

2Q 17

Indices & markets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FTSE All

3,812

-0.6

-1.1

-4.0

-3.6

-2.1

-9.3

-14.5

-3.0

1.6

-4.4

5.1

4.5

4.2

StoxxEuro

345

-0.2

-2.1

-3.2

-4.2

-2.1

-10.9

-15.4

-0.2

-4.3

-0.6

0.7

8.1

6.3

S&P 500

2,633

-0.7

-3.8

-5.3

-4.9

-2.9

-9.7

-1.5

7.2

2.9

-1.2

6.1

4.0

2.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aker BP

224

-6

-12

-12

-31

-21

-39

6

15

37

10

28

31

-8

Africa Oil

8

-2

-12

-11

-14

-7

-25

-22

30

-3

-18

-17

-9

-11

Cairn Energy

166

-8

-11

-16

-25

-16

-30

-27

-8

14

0

13

15

-13

Enquest

22

-4

-6

-17

-31

-18

-38

-13

15

15

6

4

-10

-21

Faroe Petroleum

126

-4

-3

-12

-19

-15

-26

13

12

30

5

8

22

-14

International Petroleum Co

32

-4

-16

-21

-30

-19

-47

-20

-2

62

-5

1

46

NA

Kosmos Energy Ltd.

6

-3

2

-6

-31

-12

-39

-17

13

31

-8

-14

24

-4

Lundin Petroleum

227

-4

-10

-14

-23

-18

-35

9

20

28

9

5

14

-1

Premier Oil

65

-11

-21

-36

-49

-40

-54

-19

6

75

-6

15

38

-18

Savannah Petroleum

28

-2

-5

-13

-21

-10

-17

-8

10

-3

4

-18

3

-7

Tullow Oil

172

-7

-11

-17

-31

-23

-36

-21

6

18

-2

12

28

-21

Arithmetic Average

 

-4.7

-8.7

-14.0

-24.8

-17.1

-30.4

-14.3

4.7

20.6

0.2

3.6

16.3

-11.1

Note: The price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts DCF methodology.

Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research

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ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S):

We, Lydia Rainforth, CFA, Joshua Stone, James Hosie, Mick Pickup and Paul Y. Cheng, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects the local time where the report was produced and may differ from the release date provided in GMT.

Availability of Disclosures:

Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.

The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.

Research analysts employed outside the US by affiliates of Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.

Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting payment or reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.

Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research may differ from those contained in other types of Barclays Research, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.

In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barcap.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barcap.com/S/CM.htm.

Materially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)

Africa Oil Corp. (AOIC.ST, 23-Nov-2018, SEK 7.92), Overweight/Positive, J

Aker BP (AKERBP.OL, 23-Nov-2018, NOK 223.80), Underweight/Positive, A/CD/D/J/K/L/M/N

Aker Solutions (AKSOL.OL, 23-Nov-2018, NOK 43.52), Underweight/Positive, CD/D/J/K/L/M BP (BP.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBP 5.13), Overweight/Positive, CD/CE/D/E/GE/J/K/L/M/N

Other Material Conflicts: Barclays Bank PLC and/or affiliates is providing investment banking services to BHP Billiton Plc in relation to the sale of their US onshore shale oil & gas portfolio (excluding Fayetteville) to BP plc

Cairn Energy Plc. (CNE.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBp 166), Overweight/Positive, J

CGG (GEPH.PA, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 1.29), Overweight/Positive, CD/J/K/N

Chevron Corporation (CVX, 23-Nov-2018, USD 113.60), Overweight/Positive, B/CD/CE/D/J/K/L/M/N Eni (ENI.MI, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 14.06), Underweight/Positive, CD/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/N

EnQuest Plc. (ENQ.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBp 22), Equal Weight/Positive, CD/J/K/N

Equinor (EQNR.OL, 23-Nov-2018, NOK 194.00), Overweight/Positive, CD/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/N

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, 23-Nov-2018, USD 75.49), Underweight/Positive, CD/CE/J/K/M/N Faroe Petroleum (FPM.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBp 126), Underweight/Positive, CD/J

Galp Energia (GALP.LS, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 14.41), Underweight/Positive, CD/D/J/K/L/M

Gulf Marine Services (GMS.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBp 36), Equal Weight/Positive, E/J/K/L/N Hunting (HTG.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBp 565), Equal Weight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N/Q International Petroleum Corp. (IPCOR.ST, 23-Nov-2018, SEK 31.70), Underweight/Positive, J Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS, 23-Nov-2018, USD 5.68), Overweight/Positive, CD/CE/D/J/L

Other Material Conflicts: Barclays Bank PLC and/or its affiliate is providing investment banking services to the Deep Gulf Energy Companies in relation to their sale to Kosmos Energy (NYSE:KOS).

Lundin Petroleum AB (LUPE.ST, 23-Nov-2018, SEK 226.70), Overweight/Positive, B/J Maire Tecnimont (MTCM.MI, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 3.23), Overweight/Positive, CD/J

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

Neste (NESTE.HE, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 67.90), Overweight/Positive, CD/D/J/K/L/M OMV (OMVV.VI, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 44.20), Equal Weight/Positive, CD/D/E/J/K/L/M/N

Ophir Energy Plc. (OPHR.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBp 33), Rating Suspended/Positive, D/FA/J/K/L/N

Other Material Conflicts: Barclays Bank Plc and/or an affiliate is acting as financial advisor to Ophir Energy Plc in relation to the potential acquisition of Santos Ltd's portfolio of assets in South East Asia. The ratings, price targets and estimates (as applicable) on Ophir Energy Plc as issued by the Firm’s Research Department have been temporarily suspended due to Barclays’ role in this potential transaction.

Petrofac (PFC.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBP 4.84), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/N

Other Material Conflicts: Barclays Bank Plc and/or an affiliate is providing investment banking services to Petrofac Limited in relation to their potential sale 49% of of operations in Mexico(1)(2), including Santuario, Magallanes and Arenque, to Perenco (Oil & Gas) International Limited

(“Perenco").

Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS.OL, 23-Nov-2018, NOK 18.94), Overweight/Positive, CD/D/J/K/L/M Premier Oil Plc. (PMO.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBp 65), Overweight/Positive, CD/D/J/K/L/M/N

Repsol (REP.MC, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 14.86), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N

Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBP 23.01), Overweight/Positive, A/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/N

Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBP 23.33), Overweight/Positive, A/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/N Saipem (SPMI.MI, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 3.50), Overweight/Positive, D/E/J/K/L/M/N

Saras (SRS.MI, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 1.80), Underweight/Positive, CD/D/J/K/L/M/N Savannah Petroleum (SAVP.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBp 28), Overweight/Positive, A/D/J/L SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 13.02), Equal Weight/Positive, J/K/M Subsea 7 SA (SUBC.OL, 23-Nov-2018, NOK 86.14), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N

TechnipFMC Plc (FTI.PA, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 19.85), Equal Weight/Positive, CD/CE/D/J/K/L/M/N Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE.MC, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 22.34), Equal Weight/Positive, J/K/M/N

Tenaris (TENR.MI, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 11.63), Overweight/Positive, CE/J/K/N TGS (TGS.OL, 23-Nov-2018, NOK 233.40), Underweight/Positive, J

Total (TOTF.PA, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 47.59), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/FA/J/K/L/M/N Tullow Oil Plc. (TLW.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBp 172), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/D/J/K/L/M/Q Vallourec (VLLP.PA, 23-Nov-2018, EUR 1.70), Underweight/Positive, CD/D/J/K/L/M/N Wood (WG.L, 23-Nov-2018, GBP 5.88), Underweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N

Prices are sourced from Thomson Reuters as of the last available closing price in the relevant trading market, unless another time and source is indicated.

Disclosure Legend:

A:Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of the issuer in the previous 12 months.

B:An employee or non-executive director of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a director of this issuer.

CD: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in debt securities issued by this issuer.

CE: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in equity securities issued by this issuer.

D:Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months.

E:Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the next 3 months.

FA: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of equity securities of this issuer, as calculated in accordance with US regulations.

FB: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owns a long position of more than 0.5% of a class of equity securities of this issuer, as calculated in accordance with EU regulations.

FC: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owns a short position of more than 0.5% of a class of equity securities of this issuer, as calculated in accordance with EU regulations.

GD: One of the analysts on the fundamental credit coverage team (or a member of his or her household) has a financial interest in the debt or equity securities of this issuer.

GE: One of the analysts on the fundamental equity coverage team (or a member of his or her household) has a financial interest in the debt or equity securities of this issuer.

H:This issuer beneficially owns more than 5% of any class of common equity securities of Barclays PLC.

I:Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is party to an agreement with this issuer for the provision of financial services to Barclays Bank PLC

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED and/or an affiliate.

J:Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a liquidity provider and/or trades regularly in the securities of this issuer and/or in any related derivatives.

K:Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation (including compensation for brokerage services, if applicable) from this issuer within the past 12 months.

L:This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

M:This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

N:This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

O:Not in use.

P:A partner, director or officer of Barclays Capital Canada Inc. has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company for remuneration, other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services.

Q:Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a Corporate Broker to this issuer.

R:Barclays Capital Canada Inc. and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months.

S:This issuer is a Corporate Broker to Barclays PLC.

T:Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is providing equity advisory services to this issuer.

U:The equity securities of this Canadian issuer include subordinate voting restricted shares.

V:The equity securities of this Canadian issuer include non-voting restricted shares.

Risk Disclosure(s)

Master limited partnerships (MLPs) are pass-through entities structured as publicly listed partnerships. For tax purposes, distributions to MLP unit holders may be treated as a return of principal. Investors should consult their own tax advisors before investing in MLP units.

Guide to the Barclays Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:

Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as Overweight, Equal Weight or Underweight (see definitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry (the "industry coverage universe").

In addition to the stock rating, we provide industry views which rate the outlook for the industry coverage universe as Positive, Neutral or Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.

Stock Rating

Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12month investment horizon.

Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage impracticable or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

Industry View

Positive - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.

Neutral - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating. Negative - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.

Below is the list of companies that constitute the "industry coverage universe":

Americas Integrated Oil

 

 

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO)

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE.TO)

Chevron Corporation (CVX)

ConocoPhillips (COP)

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

Hess Corp. (HES)

Husky Energy, Inc. (HSE.TO)

Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO.TO)

Murphy Oil (MUR)

Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR)

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBRA)

Suncor Energy (SU.TO)

 

 

 

 

 

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

European Integrated Oil & Refining

 

 

BP (BP.L)

Eni (ENI.MI)

Equinor (EQNR.OL)

Galp Energia (GALP.LS)

Neste (NESTE.HE)

OMV (OMVV.VI)

Repsol (REP.MC)

Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L)

Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L)

Saras (SRS.MI)

Total (TOTF.PA)

 

 

 

 

European Oil & Gas: E&P

 

 

Africa Oil Corp. (AOIC.ST)

Aker BP (AKERBP.OL)

Cairn Energy Plc. (CNE.L)

EnQuest Plc. (ENQ.L)

Faroe Petroleum (FPM.L)

International Petroleum Corp. (IPCOR.ST)

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)

Lundin Petroleum AB (LUPE.ST)

Ophir Energy Plc. (OPHR.L)

Premier Oil Plc. (PMO.L)

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP.L)

Tullow Oil Plc. (TLW.L)

 

 

 

European Oil Services & Drilling

 

 

Aker Solutions (AKSOL.OL)

CGG (GEPH.PA)

Gulf Marine Services (GMS.L)

Hunting (HTG.L)

Maire Tecnimont (MTCM.MI)

Petrofac (PFC.L)

Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS.OL)

Saipem (SPMI.MI)

SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS)

Subsea 7 SA (SUBC.OL)

TechnipFMC Plc (FTI.PA)

Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE.MC)

Tenaris (TENR.MI)

TGS (TGS.OL)

Vallourec (VLLP.PA)

Wood (WG.L)

 

 

 

 

 

Distribution of Ratings:

Barclays Equity Research has 1553 companies under coverage.

45% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 56% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm; 76% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.

38% have been assigned an Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 47% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm; 67% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.

14% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 35% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm; 66% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.

Guide to the Barclays Research Price Target:

Each analyst has a single price target on the stocks that they cover. The price target represents that analyst's expectation of where the stock will trade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analyst's price target over the same 12-month period.

Top Picks:

Barclays Equity Research's "Top Picks" represent the single best alpha-generating investment idea within each industry (as defined by the relevant "industry coverage universe"), taken from among the Overweight-rated stocks within that industry. Barclays Equity Research publishes "Top Picks" reports every quarter and analysts may also publish intra-quarter changes to their Top Picks, as necessary. While analysts may highlight other Overweight-rated stocks in their published research in addition to their Top Pick, there can only be one "Top Pick" for each industry. To view the current list of Top Picks, go to the Top Picks page on Barclays Live (https://live.barcap.com/go/keyword/TopPicks).

To see a list of companies that comprise a particular industry coverage universe, please go to https://publicresearch.barclays.com.

Types of investment recommendations produced by Barclays Equity Research:

In addition to any ratings assigned under Barclays’ formal rating systems, this publication may contain investment recommendations in the form of trade ideas, thematic screens, scorecards or portfolio recommendations that have been produced by analysts within Equity Research. Any such investment recommendations shall remain open until they are subsequently amended, rebalanced or closed in a future research report.

Disclosure of other investment recommendations produced by Barclays Equity Research:

Barclays Equity Research may have published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities/instruments recommended in this research report during the preceding 12 months. To view all investment recommendations published by Barclays Equity Research in the preceding 12 months please refer to https://live.barcap.com/go/research/Recommendations.

Legal entities involved in producing Barclays Research:

Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays, UK) Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, US)

Barclays Securities Japan Limited (BSJL, Japan)

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong) Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCCI, Canada)

Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. (BBMX, Mexico)

Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (BSIPL, India) Barclays Bank PLC, India branch (Barclays Bank, India)

Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore branch (Barclays Bank, Singapore)

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DISCLAIMER:

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