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Russia

Financials: Banks

27 November 2018

Bank St Petersburg, ord. (BSPB RX, RUB)

Buy (31 May 2018, 15:05 UTC) Previous: Hold (14 Jul 2017, 15:07 UTC)

Target price, 12mo: 69.00

Last price: 46.66 (26 Nov 2018, close) Expected total return: 54%

Upside, 12mo: 48% DY, next 12mo: 5.8%

Share price performance, 12-mo

70

 

 

 

 

15%

60

 

 

 

 

10%

 

 

 

 

5%

 

 

 

 

 

50

 

 

 

 

0%

40

 

 

 

 

-5%

 

 

 

 

-10%

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-15%

 

 

 

 

 

20

 

 

 

 

-20%

10

 

 

 

 

-25%

 

 

 

 

-30%

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

-35%

Nov

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

BSPB RX, RUB, lhs

Relative to MOEX Index, %, rhs

Equities

 

 

 

 

 

 

1M

3M

12M

3Y

 

 

 

Price

-8%

1%

-22%

17%

 

Price relative

-8%

0%

-27%

-7%

 

ADTV (USD mn)

0.06

0.10

0.16

0.15

 

Key financial highlights

 

 

 

Fiscal year end

12/17

12/18F

12/19F

12/20F

 

P/E, x

3.9x

2.7x

2.6x

2.7x

 

P/B, x

0.44x

0.32x

0.29x

0.27x

 

DY (ords), %

2.70%

5.75%

7.87%

9.76%

 

Op. inc., RUB mn

32,418

31,470

32,252

33,255

 

Opex, RUB mn

(13,488)

(14,195)

(14,896)

(15,641)

 

Net income, RUB mn

7,429

8,942

9,171

9,103

 

Op. inc., chg

7%

-3%

2%

3%

 

Opex, chg

6%

5%

5%

5%

 

Net income, chg

74%

20%

3%

-1%

 

EPS, RUB

15.39

17.21

17.65

17.52

 

DPS, RUB

1.62

2.69

3.67

4.56

 

BPS(ords), RUB

135.32

146.56

161.63

175.61

 

NIM, %

3.9%

3.8%

3.7%

3.6%

 

CIR, %

41.6%

45.1%

46.2%

47.0%

 

ROE, %

11.4%

12.4%

11.4%

10.4%

 

ROA, %

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

1.3%

 

Tier 1 CAR

12.4%

12.4%

13.1%

13.4%

 

Loans/Deposits

90%

92%

89%

90%

 

NPLs, %

5.4%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

Multiples and yields are calculated based on period-average prices where available.

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, VTB Capital Research

Earnings Release

Bank St Petersburg

3Q18 IFRS; 11% ROE, solid loan growth

Bank St Petersburg has published 3Q18 attributable earnings of RUB 2.0bn, which implied 11.3% ROE. The bottom line was 2% above consensus forecasts on a higher than expected operating result. We consider results as positive, but during the conference call shall be looking for more details from management on the sustainability of loan expansion, NIM performance, CoR and opex growth, as well as capital distribution. Our unchanged 12-month Target Price of RUB 69 implies an ETR of 54%: Buy reiterated.

NIM grew further QoQ, supported by loan growth. NII was up 5.0% QoQ and NIM grew 15bp QoQ to 3.8% as the gross loan portfolio expanded 6.0%, driven by both retail and corporate portfolio growth. Net F&C grew a robust 10.4% QoQ (4% above the consensus forecast), likely due to support from the lending business growth. Yet, lower non-core income pushed opinc down 2.8% QoQ. Operating performance was aided by a 13.2% QoQ decline in opex (both in staff and administrative costs), but 9mo18 YoY growth was 6.7% (in bank’s calculation, which is still above the FY18 target of 5%). LLP grew on higher CoR. As a result, earnings were down 18.8% QoQ to RUB 2.0bn.

Balance sheet. The net loan book was up 6.4% QoQ outperforming a customer accounts increase 5.2% QoQ. The share of current customer accounts edged higher QoQ. Net LDR increased 1pp QoQ to 91%. Asset quality slightly deteriorated: the share of problem loans increased 1.1pp QoQ to 10.9%, but the coverage ratio improved to 92% from 86% in 2Q18 as CoR grew 113bp QoQ to 286bp. For 9mo18, CoR stayed within the FY18 guidance, at 220bp.

Capital adequacy. T1 CAR increased 44bp to 13.5% and total CAR was up 23bp to 17.65%. However, N1.1 declined 95bp QoQ to 9.3% and N1.0 was down 1.3pp to 13.4%.

Conference call. Management is to host a conference call today at 13.00 GMT (dial-in: +44 330 336 9411, Conference ID: 3513252). We intend to focus on an update to the FY18 targets, including loan growth, NIM, CoR and opex growth. We also shall also seek management guidance on capital distribution.

Mikhail Shlemov, Equities Analyst

+7 495 663 47 01 // mikhail.shlemov@vtbcapital.com

Svetlana Aslanova, Equities Analyst

+7 495 663 47 88 // svetlana.aslanova@vtbcapital.com

Prices cited in the body of this report are as of the last close before, or the close on, 26 Nov 2018 (except where indicated otherwise). VTB Capital analysts update their recommendations periodically as required. This research report was prepared by the analyst(s) named above who is(are) associated with JSC VTB Capital and is distributed by JSC VTB Capital and VTB Capital PLC and their non-U.S. affiliates outside the United States. This VTB Capital research report is distributed to investors located within United States by Xtellus Capital Partners, Inc. (“Xtellus”) as a “third-party research report” as defined in Rule 2241(a)(14) and Rule 2242(a)(17) of the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Please refer to the Disclosures section of this report for other important disclosures, including the analyst certification and information required by regulation.

vk.com/id446425943

 

Bank St Petersburg

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financials: Banks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bank St Petersburg 3Q18 IFRS results highlights

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUB mn

3Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

Chng QoQ

Chng YoY

Cons* 3Q18F

Diff

 

Net customer loans

305,496

309,998

318,161

338,548

6.4%

10.8%

 

 

 

Total assets

572,773

602,697

602,133

613,050

1.8%

7.0%

619,373

-1.0%

 

Total customer deposits

329,157

346,393

354,669

372,979

5.2%

13.3%

 

 

 

Attributable equity

68,555

69,864

71,442

72,960

2.1%

6.4%

 

 

 

Net interest income

5,375

5,348

5,561

5,838

5.0%

8.6%

5,849

-0.2%

 

Provisions

(2,013)

(1,769)

(1,518)

(2,616)

72.3%

29.9%

(2,024)

29.3%

 

Net F&C income

1,312

1,388

1,339

1,478

10.4%

12.7%

1,422

3.9%

 

Operating income

8,446

7,375

8,702

8,463

-2.8%

0.2%

7,903

 

 

Operating expenses

(3,414)

(3,335)

(3,941)

(3,419)

-13.2%

0.1%

(3,702)

-7.6%

 

Attributable net income

2,387

1,834

2,511

2,038

-18.8%

-14.6%

2,000

1.9%

 

NIM (total assets)

3.8%

3.5%

3.7%

3.8%

15

5

 

 

 

Cost / income

40.4%

45.2%

45.3%

40.4%

(488)

(2)

 

 

 

ROAE

14.5%

10.5%

14.2%

11.3%

(292)

(316)

 

 

 

Provisions / gross loans

12.8%

10.3%

10.4%

10.0%

(38)

(276)

 

 

 

Cost of risk

2.3%

2.01%

1.73%

2.86%

113

58

 

 

Source: Company data, VTB Capital Research *compiled by the bank on 22 November 2018

27 November 2018

2

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Bank St Petersburg

Russia

Financials: Banks

 

Disclosures

Production and Distribution of VTB Capital Research Reports outside the United States

The information and opinions contained within VTB Capital research reports are prepared by research analysts associated with JSC VTB Capital, VTB Capital PLC and their non-U.S. affiliates (each such entity, a “VTB Group entity,” and all such entities collectively, the “VTB Group”), as indicated on the front page of this VTB Capital research report. Research reports produced by VTB Group entities are distributed under the VTB Capital logo (each such research report, a “VTB Capital research report”). This VTB Capital research report is distributed outside the United States by VTB Group entities.

Distribution of VTB Capital Research Reports to Investors within the United States

This VTB Capital research report is distributed to investors located within the United States by Xtellus Capital Partners Inc. (“Xtellus”), a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”). Xtellus had no involvement in the preparation of this VTB Capital research report, and is distributing this VTB Capital research report to investors located within the United States as a “third-party research report” as defined in Rule 2241(a)(14). Xtellus has accepted responsibility for the content of this VTB Capital research report to the extent required by SEC guidance under Rule 15a-6.6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”). Transactions in securities discussed in this VTB Capital research report must be effected by VTB Group entities with U.S. investors through Xtellus in accordance with Rule 15a-6. If you are an investor located within the United States, you should contact Xtellus if you wish to communicate with the VTB Capital research analysts who wrote this report, or you wish to conduct any transactions in securities described in this report.

Relationship between VTB and Xtellus

Xtellus is the successor entity of VTB Capital Inc, which was an SEC-registered broker dealer and affiliate of the VTB Group. The VTB Group sold its interest in VTB Capital Inc. with effect from August 31st 2018 to a newly formed holding company, Khepri Capital, LLC, an entity established and owned by certain VTB Capital Inc. personnel. In connection with the sale, VTB Capital Inc. was re-named Xtellus. While the VTB Group no longer has any ownership interest in Xtellus, Xtellus continues to provide certain services to VTB Group entities. Specifically, Xtellus (i) acts as agent for VTB Group entities pursuant to Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act in connection with securities transactions effected by VTB Group entities with U.S. investors, and (ii) is the exclusive distributor of VTB Capital research reports into the United States. Xtellus receives fees for research and Rule 15a-6 intermediation services it provides to VTB Capital Group entities, including fees for the right to distribute Xtellus research reports outside the United States. While the VTB Group no longer has any ownership interest in Xtellus, in light of the research and Rule 15a-6 service arrangements between the VTB Group and Xtellus, this VTB Capital research report includes disclosures pursuant to FINRA Rule 2241(h)(4) and FINRA Rule 2242(g)(3) applicable to VTB Group entities as if such VTB Group entities were affiliates of Xtellus. The inclusion of these affiliate disclosures should not be construed as implying that any VTB Group entity is affiliated with Xtellus for any other purpose.

Conflict of Interest Disclosures.

VTB Group entities do and seek to do business with companies covered in their research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the VTB Group may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this research report. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Where an issuer referred to in this report is not included in the disclosure table, the issuer is either considered not to be covered by VTB Capital Research, or the reference is considered to be incidental and therefore the issuer is not a subject company within this report.

Certain disclosures on the companies covered by this VTB Capital research report are set forth below. Additional disclosures on the companies covered by this report can be obtained by accessing the following webpages:

Research disclosures webpage - http://research.vtbcapital.com/ServicePages/Disclosures.aspx.

Investment Recommendations disclosures webpage https://www.vtbcapital.com/about/information-disclosure/investment- recommendations/

Additional disclosures on the companies covered by this report can be obtained by writing to the offices listed on the back page. In order to receive i) a summary of any basis of the valuation or methodology and the underlying assumptions used to either evaluate a financial instrument or an issuer, or to set a price target for a financial instrument, as well as an indication and a summary of any changes in the valuation, methodology or underlying assumptions; ii) detailed information about the valuation or methodology and the underlying assumptions in any non-proprietary models; or iii) material information about the proprietary models used; please consult the VTB Capital Research web-site at https://research.vtbcapital.com or contact the authors of this document.

27 November 2018

3

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Bank St Petersburg

 

 

 

Russia

 

 

 

Financials: Banks

 

 

 

 

Issuer Specific Disclosures

 

 

 

 

Disclosure checklist

 

 

 

 

Company

Ticker

Recent price

Disclosure

 

Bank St Petersburg

BSPB RX

46.66 (RUB)

4a

4a. VTB Capital or an affiliated company is a provider of liquidity and/or a market maker in the securities of the relevant issuer at the time this research report was published. VTB Capital or an affiliated company will buy and sell securities of the relevant issuer on a principal basis.

Analysts Certification

The research analyst(s) whose name(s) appear on this VTB Capital research report certify pursuant to SEC Regulation AC that: i) all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject security or issuer, and ii) no part of the research analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analysts in this VTB Capital research report.

The research analysts whose names appear on VTB Capital research reports received compensation that is based upon various factors including VTB Capital Group’s total revenues, a portion of which are generated by VTB Capital Group’s investment banking activities.

Investment Ratings

VTB Capital uses a three-tiered Investment Rating system for stocks under coverage: Buy, Hold, or Sell.

The three main ratings correspond to the next 12-month Expected Total Return (ETR), defined as the difference between the Target Price and the Last Price as indicated by Bloomberg divided by that Last Price plus the expected Dividend Yield over the next 12 months. Under this Investment Ratings system, Buy, Hold, and Sell have the following meanings: (as of the publishing date):

BUY: ETR exceeds plus 20% or more HOLD: ETR is between zero and plus 20% SELL: ETR is less than zero

VTB Capital Research confirms that published Buy, Hold or Sell ratings conform to these definitions at the time a Target Price is established or an Investment Rating is revised. Between such revisions, day-to-day movements in the prices of financial instruments could result in a temporary discrepancy between the Investment Rating and the aforementioned definition. Analysts address such discrepancies based on their scale and duration.

UNDER REVIEW: In the event that significant information about an issuer is due to be announced or is expected to become public in the foreseeable future, or the analyst needs time to evaluate such information, which was announced recently, s/he might choose to place that issuer Under Review. This means that the analyst is suspending the previously published financial forecasts, Target Price and investment rating in order to review them while waiting for the impending information. As such, they are no longer valid and should not be relied upon.

RESTRICTED: In certain circumstances, VTB Capital is not able to communicate issuer ratings due to internal policy and/or law and regulations. In this case, any revision of the financial forecasts, Target Prices and Investment Ratings will be carried out only after the Restricted status is removed.

Notwithstanding the above, VTB Capital may from time to time issue investment recommendations predicated on a different time horizon (such as short-term trading recommendations) to that which is described above. Where VTB Capital issues such an investment recommendation, the use of an alternative time horizon for the purpose of formulating such investment recommendation might result in differences between such investment recommendation and any investment rating published in accordance with the Investment Rating system described above. In addition, short-term trading recommendations may result in short-term price movements contrary to the recommendations in this research report.

27 November 2018

4

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Bank St Petersburg

Russia

Financials: Banks

 

The below table details the distribution of VTB Capital’s Investment Ratings on the basis of the three-tier recommendation system described above.

VTB Capital Ratings Distribution

Investment Rating Distribution

Buy

68

59%

Hold

35

30%

Sell

6

5%

Restricted

0

0%

Not Rated

0

0%

Under Review

7

6%

 

116

 

Source: VTB Capital Research as at 31 October 2018

Ratings Distribution for Investment Banking Relationships

Buy

16

76%

Hold

2

10%

Sell

0

0%

Restricted

0

0%

Not Rated

0

0%

Under Review

3

14%

 

21

 

The VTB Capital Ratings Distribution tables above account for the recommendations on all instruments covered, rather than the number of companies covered. In instances where we provide a recommendation for more than one instrument issued by a company, these are counted separately. A list of those companies for which we cover more than one instrument can be found at DoubleRecPLC20181031.pdf.

12-month Target Prices

VTB Capital research analysts employ a variety of methods for estimating the fair value of financial instruments covered by them. These may include, but are not limited to, a Discount Cash Flow (DCF) model, a Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Net Asset Value (NAV) valuation, financial or asset-based multiples of analogous companies and a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. The research analyst’s choice of methods used in each particular instance is based on the specifics of the investment case in question. The Target Price reflects the research analyst’s informed opinion on the price which is likely to be attained by the financial instrument in 12 months, subsequent to the date of the Target Price determination. The Target Price is underpinned by the aforementioned fair value estimates, and will belong to the range established by them.

Conflicts Management Arrangements

VTB Capital Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management arrangements, which are available at http://research.vtbcapital.com/ServicePages/Files/CoI+Arrangements+Research.pdf.

27 November 2018

5

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VTB Capital Research

 

Moscow Research

London Research

 

Phone: +7 495 660 4253

Phone: +44 (0) 20 3334 8557

 

research@vtbcapital.com

research@vtbcapital.com

VTB Capital Offices

 

JSC VTB Capital

VTB Capital plc

VTB Capital plc

 

Federation Tower West

14 Cornhill

9 Battery Road #27-01

 

12, Presnenskaya emb.

London EC3V 3ND

Straits Trading Building

 

Moscow, 123100, Russia

Phone: +44 (0) 20 3334 8000

Singapore 049910

 

Phone: +7 495 960 9999

Fax: +44 (0) 20 3334 8900

Phone: +65 6220 9422

 

www.vtbcapital.com

www.vtbcapital.com

Fax: +65 6225 0140

 

 

 

www.vtbcapital.com

 

 

 

 

 

VTB Capital Hong Kong Limited

 

 

 

Unit 2301, 23/F

 

 

 

Cheung Kong Center

 

 

 

2 Queen’s Road Central

 

 

 

Hong Kong

 

 

 

Phone: +852 3195 3688

 

 

 

Fax: +852 3195 3699

 

 

 

www.vtbcapital.com

 

 

Xtellus Capital Partners Inc. (Sales and Research queries for US clients)

Xtellus Capital Partners Inc. Sales

452 Fifth Avenue, 23rd Floor

New York, NY 10018

Phone: +1646 527 6400

Sales@XtellusCapital.com

VTB Group entities do and seek to do business with companies covered in their research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the VTB Group may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this research report. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

This research report is for information purposes only and does not constitute nor is it intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities or other financial instruments. Neither the information contained in this research report nor any future information made available with the subject matter contained herein will form the basis of any contract. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at by VTB Group from publicly available information and sources that VTB Group believes to be reliable. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this research report, no research analyst, director, officer, employee, agent or adviser of any member of the VTB Group gives or makes any representation, warranty or undertaking, whether express or implied, and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information set out in this research report. Any responsibility or liability for any information contained herein is expressly disclaimed. All information contained herein is subject to change at any time without notice. No member of the VTB Group has an obligation to update, modify or amend this research report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is withdrawn. Furthermore, past performance is not indicative of future results.

The investments and strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors or any particular class of investor. Investors should make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisors as they believe necessary and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives when investing. Investors should consult their independent advisors if they have any doubts as to the applicability to their business or investment objectives of the information and the strategies discussed herein. This research report is being furnished to certain persons as permitted by applicable law, and accordingly may not be reproduced or circulated to any other person without the prior written consent of a member of the VTB Group. This research report may not be relied upon by any retail customers or persons to whom this research report may not be provided by law. Unauthorised use or disclosure of this research report is strictly prohibited. Members of the VTB Group and/or their respective principals, directors, officers and employees (including, but not limited to, persons involved with the preparation or issuance of this research report) may own, have positions or effect transactions in the securities or financial instruments referred to herein or in the investments of any issuers discussed herein, may engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with the research contained in this research report and with respect to securities or financial instruments covered by this research report, may sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis and may serve or act as director, placement agent, advisor or lender, or make a market in, or may have been a manager or a co-manager of the most recent public offering in respect of any investments or issuers of such securities or financial instruments referenced in this research report or may perform any other investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this research report. Disclosures of conflicts of interest, if any, are found at the end of the text of this research report. Members of the VTB Group may have acted upon or used the information or conclusions contained in this research report, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before publication of this research report. Investing in the Russian Federation, its markets and in Russian securities and financial instruments involves a high degree of risk, and many persons, physical and legal, may be restricted from dealing in the securities markets of the Russian Federation. Investors should perform their own due diligence before investing. It is particularly important to note that securities and financial instruments denominated in foreign currencies and ADRs and other investments discussed herein are subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may adversely affect the value of the investment. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount invested. Prices and availability of securities, financial instruments or investments are also subject to change without notice. The views and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the authors of this research report about the subject investments, securities and financial instruments and issuers and do not necessarily reflect the views of any member of the VTB Group. No part of the compensation of the authors of this research report was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report. By accepting this research report, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. This material is not intended for the use of private investors.

In Russia, this report is approved and/or communicated by JSC VTB Capital, a professional securities market participant regulated by the Central Bank of Russia.

In the United Kingdom this report is approved and/or communicated by VTB Capital plc London, a member of the London Stock Exchange and authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. This report is intended for those persons that would be classified as Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients under the Financial Conduct Authority’s Conduct of Business rules.”

This research report is distributed in Singapore by VTB Capital plc to accredited investors, expert investors or institutional investors only (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations and is not intended to be distributed directly or indirectly to any other class of person). Recipients of this report in Singapore are to contact VTB Capital plc, Singapore branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. VTB Capital plc, Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

This research report is distributed in Hong Kong by VTB Capital Hong Kong Limited, a licensed corporation (CE Ref: AXF967) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to “professional investors” (as defined in the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation) only.

For important disclosures and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the VTB Capital Research Website: http://research.vtbcapital.com/ServicePages/Disclosures.aspx, or contact your research representative.

Copyright © 2018 by VTB Capital. All rights reserved. Please cite source when quoting.

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