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9 11 2018 Consumer Update Smart Expansion

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21

 

EQUITY RESEARCH

CONSUMER AND RETAIL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 62: OKEY at a glance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2015

 

2016

 

2017

 

 

2018E

 

2019E

 

 

2020E

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

162 510

 

175 471

 

177 455

 

 

167 947

 

175 546

 

 

185 470

 

 

Gross profit

38 367

 

40 209

40 444

 

38 628

40 375

 

42 658

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating profit (EBIT)

 

5 848

 

3 394

 

7 590

 

 

3 284

 

3 817

 

 

4 562

 

 

EBITDA

10 109

 

9 253

9 335

 

7 819

8 908

 

10 497

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA margin

 

6,2%

 

5,3%

 

5,3%

 

 

4.7%

 

5.1%

 

 

5.7%

 

 

EBITDAR

14 837

 

14 597

15 093

 

11 760

13 262

 

15 105

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit before income tax

 

1 901

 

272

 

3 795

 

 

225

 

1 247

 

 

2 288

 

 

Profit for the period

1 918

 

-138

3 167

 

171

948

 

1 739

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET, RUBmn

 

2015

 

2016

 

2017

 

 

2018E

 

2019E

 

 

2020E

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

49 783

 

51 728

48 277

 

50 797

53 254

 

55 294

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total non-current assets

 

59 230

 

61 052

 

58 486

 

 

61 006

 

63 463

 

 

65 503

 

 

Inventories

12 628

 

13 707

13 524

 

12 836

13 491

 

14 332

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total current assets

 

30 850

 

32 041

 

32 971

 

 

26 634

 

25 414

 

 

25 612

 

 

Total assets

90 079

 

93 093

91 457

 

87 640

88 877

 

91 115

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total equity

 

24 491

 

22 655

 

24 251

 

 

22 522

 

23 127

 

 

24 155

 

 

Long-term borrowings and loans

23 558

 

31 673

24 679

 

20 977

18 880

 

16 992

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total non-current liabilities

 

24 484

 

32 504

 

25 690

 

 

21 938

 

19 879

 

 

18 040

 

 

Total current liabilities

41 104

 

37 933

41 516

 

43 179

45 871

 

48 920

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total equity and liabilities

 

90 079

 

93 093

 

91 457

 

 

87 640

 

88 877

 

 

91 115

 

 

Key data

 

2015

 

2016

 

2017

 

 

2018E

 

2019E

 

 

2020E

 

 

ROE

7,9%

 

-1,6%

12,6%

 

0.8%

4.1%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROA

 

2,2%

 

-0,4%

 

3,3%

 

 

0.2%

 

1.1%

 

 

1.9%

 

 

ROIC

10,1%

 

5,0%

11,6%

 

5.6%

6.6%

 

7.8%

 

Source: Company data, ATON Research

Figure 63: O’KEY new vs old forecasts comparison vs consensus estimates

 

 

2018E

 

 

2019E

 

 

New

Old

%

New

Old

%

Revenue

167 947

179 446

-6,4%

175 546

181 170

-3,1%

EBITDA

7 819

10 578

-26,0%

8 908

10 659

-16,4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

171

666

n/a

948

1 158

-18,1%

 

ATON

Cons

%

ATON

Cons

%

Revenue

167 947

178 362

-5,8%

175 546

191 355

-8,3%

EBITDA

7 819

10 159

-23,0%

8 908

10 159

-12,3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

171

1 470

n/a

948

2 090

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: ATON Research

© 2018 ATON LLC. All rights reserved

vk.com/id446425943

22

EQUITY RESEARCH

CONSUMER AND RETAIL

 

Target Price

 

Target price per GDR (DCF),$

1,4

 

 

Target price per GDR (multiples),$

1,4

Average Target Price per GDR,$

1,4

 

 

Potential upside

-10%

 

 

Source: Company data, ATON Research

Figure 64: Fwd P/E OKEY LI

22

20

18

16

14

12

10 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Jan-18 Jun-18

OKEY LI Equity Multiple (BF P/E) Multiple Average (2 Years)

Source: Bloomberg, ATON Research

Figure 65: Fwd EV/EBITDA OKEY LI

7

6

5

4 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Jan-18 Jun-18

OKEY LI Equity Multiple (BF EV/EBITDA) Multiple Average (2 Years)

Source: Bloomberg, ATON Research

Figure 66: OKEY FY19E EPS estimates decreased 27% over 1 Yr

170

11

 

10,5

150

10

 

130

9,5

9

 

110

8,5

 

 

8

90

7,5

Nov-17 Feb-18

May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18

Price

BEst Standard Revenue 2019 A

Source: Company reports, ATON Research

Figure 67: OKEY FY19E EBITDA estimates were down 18% in 1 Yr

Valuation

12M target price. To evaluate OKEY we used a combination of DCF and multiples methods. Our combined valuation yields a 12-months target price of $1.4 price per GDR, which implies 10% downside to the CMP. Therefore, we reiterate our SELL rating for the stock.

Multiples valuation. When considering our multiples valuation, we used 12M forward EV/ EBITDA ratio of the global peers operating on emerging markets (12,9x) and used 55% discount to the target multiple. The market based valuation resulted in a target price of $1.4 per GDR, implying 11% downside to CMP.

O’KEY’s cost of capital was calculated using: 1) Russian corporate tax rate for retailers of 24%, 2) RFR offered on 10 years OFZ, 3) we assume debt premium of 5% and EMRP of 5%. Using the debt – to – equity ratio estimated in 2018 we derive the weighted average cost of company’s capital of 13,8%.

DCF. In order to calculate terminal value, we assume that after 2026 future cash flows will grow at a constant rate of 2,5%. Given our DCF model we came up with the target price of $1.4 per GDR which implies 10% downside.

Risks

Downside risks

Deceleration of economic growth in Russia: If the economic recovery takes longer than expected, all major retailers will be negatively affected.

Growing competition and more aggressive pricing and promotions.

Concentration only on the development of the discounter chain may result in insufficient attention being paid to the core hypermarket segment.

Execution risk. The new strategy announced maps out O’KEY’s turnaround over the course of several years. On our estimates, however, the pace and efficiency of the changes will depend a lot on excellent execution.

Upside risks

Discounters’ expansion: the compact format of hard discounters, well-known in Europe but new to the Russian market, has become more popular in recent years. The faster roll-out of DA! chain may support the Group’s financials.

Dividends. If the Group is indeed committed to paying dividends despite the share buyback, it may support the stock

170

13500

150

12500

 

130

 

110

11500

 

90

10500

Nov-17

Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18

Price

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ATON Research

© 2018 ATON LLC. All rights reserved

vk.com/id446425943

 

 

EQUITY RESEARCH

CONSUMER AND RETAIL

 

 

 

 

 

Multiples Valuation

 

EV/EBITDA

 

GEM peers, x

 

12,9

 

Assumed premium/(discount)

 

-55%

 

OKEY's target multiples, x

 

5,8

 

OKEY's 2018E-2019E EBITDA, RUBmn

8 363

 

OKEY's implied EV, RUBmn

 

48 549

 

OKEY's 2018E net debt, RUBmn

 

24 235

 

OKEY's implied equity value, RUBmn

24 314

 

Price per GDR, US$

 

1.4

 

Current Price

 

1.6

 

Potential upside/ downside

 

-11%

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, ATON Research

23

WACC calculation

 

 

 

Tax rate

24,0%

 

Asset Beta

 

1,0

 

Debt/Equity

1,2

 

Geared Beta

 

1,9

 

Risk free rate

8,5%

 

Debt premium

 

5,0%

 

Equity risk premium

5,0%

 

Cost of equity

 

17,9%

 

Cost of debt (after tax)

10,3%

 

WACC

 

13,8%

 

 

 

 

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, ATON Research

DCF valuation

2018E

2019E

2020E

2021E

2022E

2023E

2024E

2025E

2026E

EBIT

3,284

3,817

4,562

4,930

5,786

5,427

6,234

6,189

5,887

Less taxation

-54

-299

-549

-701

-963

-911

-1,136

-1,154

-1,108

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax adjusted EBIT

3,230

3,518

4,012

4,229

4,824

4,516

5,098

5,035

4,779

Depreciation and amortisation

4,367

4,915

5,750

5,953

6,158

6,373

6,581

6,774

6,885

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less CAPEX

-6,886

-7,373

-7,790

-8,065

-8,342

-8,635

-8,916

-9,178

-9,328

Change in working capital

8,604

1,488

2,250

2,926

3,288

3,639

4,113

4,656

5,497

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unlevered free cash flow

9,315

2,548

4,222

5,043

5,927

5,893

6,876

7,287

7,833

WACC

13,8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discounted free cash flow

9,139

2,197

3,199

3,358

3,467

3,030

3,106

2,893

2,732

Future cash flow growth rate

2.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Terminal value

71,053

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discounted terminal value

24,784

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PV of 2026E enterprise value

48,765

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt

24,235

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fair equity value

24,530

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Number of GDRs, mn

269

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price target, $ per GDR

1.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Potential upside

-10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

© 2018 ATON LLC. All rights reserved

vk.com/id446425943

Disclosures Appendix

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