
9 11 2018 Consumer Update Smart Expansion
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EQUITY RESEARCH |
CONSUMER AND RETAIL |
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Figure 62: OKEY at a glance |
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2015 |
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2016 |
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2017 |
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2018E |
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2019E |
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2020E |
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Revenue |
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162 510 |
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175 471 |
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177 455 |
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167 947 |
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175 546 |
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185 470 |
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Gross profit |
38 367 |
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40 209 |
40 444 |
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38 628 |
40 375 |
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42 658 |
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Operating profit (EBIT) |
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5 848 |
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3 394 |
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7 590 |
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3 284 |
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3 817 |
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4 562 |
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EBITDA |
10 109 |
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9 253 |
9 335 |
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7 819 |
8 908 |
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10 497 |
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EBITDA margin |
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6,2% |
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5,3% |
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5,3% |
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4.7% |
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5.1% |
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5.7% |
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EBITDAR |
14 837 |
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14 597 |
15 093 |
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11 760 |
13 262 |
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15 105 |
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Profit before income tax |
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1 901 |
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272 |
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3 795 |
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225 |
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1 247 |
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2 288 |
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Profit for the period |
1 918 |
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-138 |
3 167 |
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171 |
948 |
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1 739 |
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BALANCE SHEET, RUBmn |
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2015 |
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2016 |
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2017 |
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2018E |
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2019E |
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2020E |
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Property, plant and equipment |
49 783 |
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51 728 |
48 277 |
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50 797 |
53 254 |
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55 294 |
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Total non-current assets |
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59 230 |
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61 052 |
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58 486 |
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61 006 |
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63 463 |
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65 503 |
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Inventories |
12 628 |
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13 707 |
13 524 |
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12 836 |
13 491 |
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14 332 |
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Total current assets |
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30 850 |
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32 041 |
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32 971 |
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26 634 |
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25 414 |
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25 612 |
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Total assets |
90 079 |
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93 093 |
91 457 |
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87 640 |
88 877 |
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91 115 |
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Total equity |
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24 491 |
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22 655 |
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24 251 |
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22 522 |
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23 127 |
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24 155 |
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Long-term borrowings and loans |
23 558 |
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31 673 |
24 679 |
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20 977 |
18 880 |
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16 992 |
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Total non-current liabilities |
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24 484 |
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32 504 |
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25 690 |
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21 938 |
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19 879 |
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18 040 |
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Total current liabilities |
41 104 |
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37 933 |
41 516 |
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43 179 |
45 871 |
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48 920 |
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Total equity and liabilities |
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90 079 |
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93 093 |
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91 457 |
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87 640 |
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88 877 |
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91 115 |
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Key data |
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2015 |
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2016 |
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2017 |
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2018E |
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2019E |
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2020E |
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ROE |
7,9% |
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-1,6% |
12,6% |
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0.8% |
4.1% |
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7.2% |
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ROA |
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2,2% |
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-0,4% |
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3,3% |
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0.2% |
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1.1% |
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1.9% |
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ROIC |
10,1% |
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5,0% |
11,6% |
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5.6% |
6.6% |
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7.8% |
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Source: Company data, ATON Research
Figure 63: O’KEY new vs old forecasts comparison vs consensus estimates
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2018E |
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2019E |
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New |
Old |
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New |
Old |
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Revenue |
167 947 |
179 446 |
-6,4% |
175 546 |
181 170 |
-3,1% |
EBITDA |
7 819 |
10 578 |
-26,0% |
8 908 |
10 659 |
-16,4% |
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Net Income |
171 |
666 |
n/a |
948 |
1 158 |
-18,1% |
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ATON |
Cons |
% |
ATON |
Cons |
% |
Revenue |
167 947 |
178 362 |
-5,8% |
175 546 |
191 355 |
-8,3% |
EBITDA |
7 819 |
10 159 |
-23,0% |
8 908 |
10 159 |
-12,3% |
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Net Income |
171 |
1 470 |
n/a |
948 |
2 090 |
n/a |
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Source: ATON Research
© 2018 ATON LLC. All rights reserved

vk.com/id446425943 |
22 |
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EQUITY RESEARCH |
CONSUMER AND RETAIL |
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Target Price |
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Target price per GDR (DCF),$ |
1,4 |
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Target price per GDR (multiples),$ |
1,4 |
Average Target Price per GDR,$ |
1,4 |
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Potential upside |
-10% |
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Source: Company data, ATON Research
Figure 64: Fwd P/E OKEY LI
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20
18
16
14
12
10 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Jan-18 Jun-18
OKEY LI Equity Multiple (BF P/E) Multiple Average (2 Years)
Source: Bloomberg, ATON Research
Figure 65: Fwd EV/EBITDA OKEY LI
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6
5
4 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Jan-18 Jun-18
OKEY LI Equity Multiple (BF EV/EBITDA) Multiple Average (2 Years)
Source: Bloomberg, ATON Research
Figure 66: OKEY FY19E EPS estimates decreased 27% over 1 Yr
170 |
11 |
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10,5 |
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150 |
10 |
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130 |
9,5 |
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110 |
8,5 |
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8 |
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90 |
7,5 |
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Nov-17 Feb-18 |
May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 |
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Price |
BEst Standard Revenue 2019 A |
Source: Company reports, ATON Research
Figure 67: OKEY FY19E EBITDA estimates were down 18% in 1 Yr
Valuation
12M target price. To evaluate OKEY we used a combination of DCF and multiples methods. Our combined valuation yields a 12-months target price of $1.4 price per GDR, which implies 10% downside to the CMP. Therefore, we reiterate our SELL rating for the stock.
Multiples valuation. When considering our multiples valuation, we used 12M forward EV/ EBITDA ratio of the global peers operating on emerging markets (12,9x) and used 55% discount to the target multiple. The market based valuation resulted in a target price of $1.4 per GDR, implying 11% downside to CMP.
O’KEY’s cost of capital was calculated using: 1) Russian corporate tax rate for retailers of 24%, 2) RFR offered on 10 years OFZ, 3) we assume debt premium of 5% and EMRP of 5%. Using the debt – to – equity ratio estimated in 2018 we derive the weighted average cost of company’s capital of 13,8%.
DCF. In order to calculate terminal value, we assume that after 2026 future cash flows will grow at a constant rate of 2,5%. Given our DCF model we came up with the target price of $1.4 per GDR which implies 10% downside.
Risks
Downside risks
Deceleration of economic growth in Russia: If the economic recovery takes longer than expected, all major retailers will be negatively affected.
Growing competition and more aggressive pricing and promotions.
Concentration only on the development of the discounter chain may result in insufficient attention being paid to the core hypermarket segment.
Execution risk. The new strategy announced maps out O’KEY’s turnaround over the course of several years. On our estimates, however, the pace and efficiency of the changes will depend a lot on excellent execution.
Upside risks
Discounters’ expansion: the compact format of hard discounters, well-known in Europe but new to the Russian market, has become more popular in recent years. The faster roll-out of DA! chain may support the Group’s financials.
Dividends. If the Group is indeed committed to paying dividends despite the share buyback, it may support the stock
170 |
13500 |
150 |
12500 |
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130 |
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110 |
11500 |
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90 |
10500 |
Nov-17 |
Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 |
Price
Source: Bloomberg, Company, ATON Research
© 2018 ATON LLC. All rights reserved

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EQUITY RESEARCH |
CONSUMER AND RETAIL |
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Multiples Valuation |
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EV/EBITDA |
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GEM peers, x |
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12,9 |
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Assumed premium/(discount) |
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-55% |
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OKEY's target multiples, x |
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5,8 |
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OKEY's 2018E-2019E EBITDA, RUBmn |
8 363 |
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OKEY's implied EV, RUBmn |
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48 549 |
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OKEY's 2018E net debt, RUBmn |
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24 235 |
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OKEY's implied equity value, RUBmn |
24 314 |
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Price per GDR, US$ |
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1.4 |
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Current Price |
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1.6 |
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Potential upside/ downside |
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-11% |
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, ATON Research
23
WACC calculation |
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Tax rate |
24,0% |
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Asset Beta |
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1,0 |
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Debt/Equity |
1,2 |
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Geared Beta |
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1,9 |
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Risk free rate |
8,5% |
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Debt premium |
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5,0% |
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Equity risk premium |
5,0% |
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Cost of equity |
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17,9% |
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Cost of debt (after tax) |
10,3% |
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WACC |
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13,8% |
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Source: Bloomberg, Company data, ATON Research
DCF valuation |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
2023E |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
EBIT |
3,284 |
3,817 |
4,562 |
4,930 |
5,786 |
5,427 |
6,234 |
6,189 |
5,887 |
Less taxation |
-54 |
-299 |
-549 |
-701 |
-963 |
-911 |
-1,136 |
-1,154 |
-1,108 |
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Tax adjusted EBIT |
3,230 |
3,518 |
4,012 |
4,229 |
4,824 |
4,516 |
5,098 |
5,035 |
4,779 |
Depreciation and amortisation |
4,367 |
4,915 |
5,750 |
5,953 |
6,158 |
6,373 |
6,581 |
6,774 |
6,885 |
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Less CAPEX |
-6,886 |
-7,373 |
-7,790 |
-8,065 |
-8,342 |
-8,635 |
-8,916 |
-9,178 |
-9,328 |
Change in working capital |
8,604 |
1,488 |
2,250 |
2,926 |
3,288 |
3,639 |
4,113 |
4,656 |
5,497 |
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Unlevered free cash flow |
9,315 |
2,548 |
4,222 |
5,043 |
5,927 |
5,893 |
6,876 |
7,287 |
7,833 |
WACC |
13,8% |
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Discounted free cash flow |
9,139 |
2,197 |
3,199 |
3,358 |
3,467 |
3,030 |
3,106 |
2,893 |
2,732 |
Future cash flow growth rate |
2.5% |
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Terminal value |
71,053 |
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Discounted terminal value |
24,784 |
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PV of 2026E enterprise value |
48,765 |
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Net debt |
24,235 |
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Fair equity value |
24,530 |
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Number of GDRs, mn |
269 |
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Price target, $ per GDR |
1.4 |
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Potential upside |
-10% |
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© 2018 ATON LLC. All rights reserved

vk.com/id446425943
Disclosures Appendix
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Investment ratings are a function of ATON LLC expectations of total return on equity (forecast price appreciation and dividend yield within the next 12 months, unless stated otherwise in the research).
The investment ratings may be determined by the following standard ranges: Buy (expected total return of 15% or more);
Hold (expected total return of 0-15%); Sell (expected negative total return).
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