АГРОЗЕМЛЯ экономика
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GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2019-2023
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© First Solar |
For the first time, the solar sector |
But a 4% annual growth rate is not enough to master the climate change |
grid-connected over 100 GW per |
challenge. Together with wind, which again added only half of solar’s |
year and exceeded the 0.5 TW level |
capacities, and the others in the clean energy team, net capacity additions |
of total installed solar power |
from renewables basically stagnated in 2018; their share grew by only 1% |
capacities. Those are impressive |
absolute. In this environment, solar – the most versatile and often lowest- |
milestones. |
cost power generation source today – contributed only a little over 2% of |
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the global electricity output. At the same time, global CO2 emissions did not |
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decrease but rose by around 1.7% to another world record high. |
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It is obvious that renewables have to play a key role in cutting global |
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greenhouse gas emissions; it is simply the most efficient way. According to |
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IRENA, an average of over 400 GW of renewables have to be installed per |
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year until 2050 to keep temperature rise below 2°C. But last year saw |
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additions of only around 180 GW of renewables. While it is a good sign that |
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most analysts consider solar as the major pillar in their long-term power |
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scenarios, this will be too late – solar, in concert with storage, wind and |
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others, is ready to satisfy the need for much more renewable energy today. |
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The main reason for last year’s low solar market growth was the contraction |
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of the Chinese market by 16%. Despite causing some turmoil for the entire |
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solar sector over the last months, this solar market restructuring effort has |
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been necessary. As the world’s largest solar market by far, China was |
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responsible for nearly 55% of new installations in 2017. The strong demand |
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was mostly incentivised through inappropriately high feed-in tariffs, with |
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the solar power plants mostly installed in very sunny but distant regions |
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that require long-distance transmission lines that had not been fully |
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available and led to unwanted high curtailment of power. The transition to |
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a new market design that will be based on tenders and merchant solar |
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backed by green certificates and financing schemes is exactly what’s needed |
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to make the Chinese energy market fit for the next solar growth phase. |
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The European Union – where the solar market suffered for many years – has |
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just completed a legislative energy transition exercise. The Clean Energy for |
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All Europeans Package provides a framework with a reliable governance and |
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a modern market design that is aimed at enabling all stakeholders – from |
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large corporates to active consumers on the household level – to invest in |
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renewables in the power, heat and transport sectors. It is now on the |
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member states to put these mostly solar-benefiting guidelines into action. |
88 / SolarPower Europe / GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR POWER 2019-2023
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FIGURE 39 COMPARISON MEDIUM SCENARIO GMO 2018 VS 2019
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180.0 |
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180 |
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169.4 |
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158.4 |
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160 |
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157.8 |
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144.0 |
140.4 |
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140 |
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128.4 |
125.2 |
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120 |
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107.5 |
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102.6102.4 |
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100 |
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80 |
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60 |
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2018 |
2019 |
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GMO 2018 |
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GMO 2019 |
© SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2019
China is usually much faster in changing any policy guidelines than Western economies because of its political structure. From what can be seen so far, the Chinese administration has addressed certain concerns of the domestic solar industry and is in the final stages of creating a new solar incentive scheme that is supposed to reignite the market in the second half of 2019 and ensure further growth in the coming years.
However, there was an important lesson to be learned for the global solar sector from Chinese restructuring: its global dependence on China somewhat decreased in 2018 to 44%, from around 52% the year before. Even with faster recovery than originally expected this year, the Chinese market will only cover about 34%, which in return means that about two-thirds of global solar capacity will be installed outside China. With 16 countries expected to install over 1 GW this year, diversification of global solar demand is quickly developing. With solar’s cost reduction continuing, the number of emerging solar markets will grow further in the next few years as well.
For flexible solar technology and its peers to be able to grow as fast as possible, it is of utmost importance that
infrastructure and market design are working effectively. But this is not always the case. One example are tenders, a key dissemination tool for solar and wind in the post- feed-in tariff world. In India, the world’s third largest solar market, demand decreased in 2018 among others, because its tender scheme showed serious flaws. Distribution companies retroactively asked for retendering to get better prices or tendered volumes have been combined with requirements to set up local manufacturing, which has made the process very complicated. However, if tenders should play a role in areas with large penetration of renewables, we need intelligent tenders that make use of solar’s flexible nature to avoid extensive new power lines people often oppose; moreover, tenders have to be open to combining various generation technologies and storage to offer different grid services. There are many more barriers that need be cleared to free the fast lane for solar, but that’s depending on policy frameworks. We have become again more optimistic in our Global Market Outlook 2109 when compared to last year’s version (see Fig. 39). But again – that’s not enough to stop the Climate Crisis. In any case, solar is ready today from the technology and cost side for a much steeper growth curve.
SolarPower Europe / GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR POWER 2019-2023 / 89
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SolarPower Europe
Rue d’Arlon 69-71, 1040 Brussels, Belgium T +32 2 709 55 20 / F +32 2 725 32 50
info@solarpowereurope.org / www.solarpowereurope.org
9 789082 714326 
ISBN NUMBER 9789082714326
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MedTech in Emerging Markets 2019
A market access trend report in emerging markets
A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The world leader in global business intelligence
The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years’ experience in helping businesses, financial firms and
governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed.
Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact.
EIU subscription services
The world’s leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. We specialise in:
•Country Analysis: Access to regular, detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts, as well as assessments of the business and regulatory environments in different markets.
•Risk Analysis: Our risk services identify actual and potential threats around the world and help our clients understand the implications for their organisations.
•Industry Analysis: Five year forecasts, analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60 major economies. These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends.
EIU Consulting
EIU Consulting is a bespoke service designed to provide solutions specific to our customers’ needs. We specialise in these key sectors:
•EIU Consumer: We help consumer-facing companies to enter new markets as well as deliver greater success in current markets. We work globally, supporting senior management with strategic initiatives, M&A due diligence, demand forecasting and other issues of fundamental importance to their corporations. Find out more at eiu.com/consumer
•Healthcare: Together with our two specialised consultancies, Bazian and Clearstate, The EIU helps healthcare organisations build and maintain successful and sustainable businesses across the healthcare ecosystem. Find out more at: eiu.com/ healthcare
•Public Policy: Trusted by the sector’s most influential stakeholders, our global public policy practice provides evidencebased research for policy-makers and stakeholders seeking clear and measurable outcomes. Find out more at: eiu.com/ publicpolicy
The Economist Corporate Network
The Economist Corporate Network (ECN) is The Economist Group’s advisory service for organisational leaders seeking to better understand the economic and business environments of global markets. Delivering independent, thought-provoking content, ECN provides clients with the knowledge, insight, and interaction that support better-informed strategies and decisions.
The Network is part of The Economist Intelligence Unit and is led by experts with in-depth understanding of the geographies and markets they oversee. The Network’s membership-based operations cover Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Through a distinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibre research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends.
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MEDTECH IN EMERGING MARKETS 2019
A MARKET ACCESS TREND REPORT IN EMERGING MARKETS
Contents
Foreword |
2 |
Infographic: Global medtech trends shaping 2019 |
3 |
The rise of emerging market medtech companies |
5 |
Paying for medtech innovation in emerging markets |
8 |
Diagnostic innovation and private health insurance: Rethinking their alignment |
10 |
Are emerging market hospitals ready for health innovation? |
13 |
Growing your medtech business in emerging markets |
16 |
About the authors |
17 |
1 |
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 |
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MEDTECH IN EMERGING MARKETS 2019
A MARKET ACCESS TREND REPORT IN EMERGING MARKETS
Foreword
As we begin 2019, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Healthcare highlights key trends in the global medical technology (medtech) industry in 2019 – from the industry coming under
pressure as US-China economic and technological rivalry continues to unfold to the pick-up of remote monitoring and telehealth solutions.
The report focusses on the implications of some of these trends on emerging markets as companies look to gain greater access to these fast-growing high-potential markets. We look at various opportunities and challenges to help companies understand where and how emerging market medtech companies are evolving as even stronger competitors in 2019, and affordability and infrastructure issues in these markets.
2019 will also mark significant milestones for EIU Healthcare after our acquisition of data information intelligence GmbH (dii), a leading healthcare consultancy and market research provider with a focus on the diagnostic, medical devices and imaging market in 2018 and the launch of our redeveloped data product, Surgical Gateway. In 2019, dii’s expertise in sizing the in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) market in European countries will complement the growing strengths of our IVD Gateway database, which will relaunch on a new interface to continue to deliver precise data and forecasts for each of the major IVD segments in Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Surgical Gateway employs data science and analytics techniques to integrate macro insights – from our primary research data on surgical endusers, population health data, patient affordability, hospital capacity to derive market size, share and growth data, to build accurate estimates and forecasts of surgical device and consumables demand across 27 countries worldwide.
We look ahead to the opportunities for medtech companies, governments, payers and various partners to work together to improve access to medtech in emerging markets.
Jin Li Frick
Head, MedTech & Life Sciences Consulting
EIU Healthcare
2 |
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 |
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Global MedTech
TRENDS SHAPING
2019
1Data-driven healthcare approaches among consumers and healthcare providers demand for greater connectivity.
Consumers are increasingly expecting medtech to connect over a single platform to o er a holistic solution to multiple needs and demands. High net worth individuals (HNWIs) in Asia, Middle East and Africa polled by the EIU believe that the collection of personal health data will improve their ability to care for their health.
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Top two barriers to greater adoption |
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of a personal data-driven approach |
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to healthcare according to HNWIs in |
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Asia, Middle East and Africa |
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Think monitoring their |
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Use wearable health |
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health gives them a greater |
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devices for multiple |
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feeling of control over it |
Use wearable |
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Lack of trained |
Gaps in local |
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healthcare |
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health devices |
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Medtech needs to connect over a single platform for healthcare providers pursuing data-driven healthcarethat will need broad sets of data to come together in a connected ecosystem.
76% |
Interoperability |
Healthcare organisations |
is one of the top three areas of |
planning to invest heavily |
focus for 2019 for US healthcare |
in big data and analytics |
providers. |
2Medtech comes under pressure as US-China economic and technological rivalry continues to unfold in 2019.
>US$1.1bn
Estimated total annual value of medical imaging products subjected to US and China tari s implemented in 2018
Fast-growing and high value medtech segments to watch for intensifying competition and potential trade risks:
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In-vitro |
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medical |
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diagnostics |
sequencing |
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consumables |
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