газпром инвестиции
.pdf
vk.com/id446425943
GAS BUSINESS
DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGY
MR. OLEG AKSYUTIN
Member of the Management
Committee, Head of Department,
Gazprom
vk.com/id446425943
NATURAL GAS IS THE RESOURCE OF THE FUTURE
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BY 2035, NATURAL GAS DEMAND WILL |
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BY 2035, THE SHARE OF NATURAL GAS |
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INCREASE BY A THIRD AND OVERTAKE COAL |
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IN THE GLOBAL FUEL MIX WILL REACH ¼ |
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+33% |
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23 % |
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GAS |
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20181 |
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2035 |
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14.4 |
25 % |
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bn toе |
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COAL |
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2018 |
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17.3 |
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2035 |
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2018 |
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bn toе |
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OIL |
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2018 |
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2035 |
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2035 |
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bn toe 0 |
1 |
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5 |
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Natural gas |
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Othеr еnеrgy sourcеs |
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Sources: Gazprom, Cedigaz, GECF, IHS Markit, IEA, Wood Mackenzie |
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1 |
The data for 2018 is preliminary; data is rounded |
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NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION WILL INCREASE BY 1.3 TCM; ~30% OF INCREASE WILL ORIGINATE IN CHINA
tcm |
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5.5 |
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2035 |
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5.1 |
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CHINA |
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4.5 |
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Othеr |
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+1.3 |
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countriеs |
3.8 |
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3.5 |
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2018 |
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Consumption |
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in 2018 |
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2.5 |
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5 |
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STRATEGY |
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vk.com/id446425943
GAZPROM: THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET LEADER
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NATURAL GAS |
35 tcm |
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RESERVES |
17% of global reserves |
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NATURAL GAS |
497.6 bcm |
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PRODUCTION |
12% of global volumes |
#1 |
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SHARE OF |
100% |
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CONVENTIONAL |
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IN THE WORLD |
PRODUCTION |
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EXPORTS |
201.8 bcm1 |
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1967 |
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2003 |
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2018 |
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START OF THE RUSSIAN |
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START OF RISK- |
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FIRST RUSSIAN LNG |
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GAS SUPPLIES TO |
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FREE SUPPLIES |
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PLANT LAUNCH |
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EUROPE |
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1Pipeline exports to far-abroad countries
2The quoted figures indicate annual transportation volumes after reaching design capacity
EXPANSION OF RISK-FREE |
ENTRY TO THE CHINESE |
EXPORT ROUTES TO EUROPE |
MARKET VIA THE PIPELINE |
NORD STREAM 22 |
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+55 BCM |
POWER OF SIBERIA |
TURKSTREAM |
+38 BCM |
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+31.5 BCM |
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DIVERSIFICATION AND IMPROVEMENT OF EXPORT EFFICIENCY
2019 |
2020-2035 |
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FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF LEADING |
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POSITION AMONG GLOBAL ENERGY COMPANIES |
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6 |
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STRATEGY |
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vk.com/id446425943
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION STRATEGY: GROWTH AND DIVERSIFICATION
100% |
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OTHER REGIONS |
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90% |
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EAST SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST |
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80% |
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70% |
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YAMAL |
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(TO BE LAUNCHED) |
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60% |
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YAMAL |
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50% |
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(IN OPERATION) |
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40% |
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NADYM–PUR–TAZ |
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30% |
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20% |
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10% |
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0% |
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0% |
2020 |
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2035 |
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2018 |
2025 |
2030 |
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2035 |
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1 |
As of 2018 |
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2 |
This category also includes production of associated gas by Gazprom Neft |
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Depletion level1
Orenburg, Astrakhan, Shtokman and other regions2
Chayanda, Kovykta
Kirinskoye, Yuzhno-Kirinskoye
other fields
Malyginskoye
Tambeyskoye
Kharasaveyskoye (cenoman-aptian and neocom-jur.) 
Bovanenkovo (neocom-jurassic)
other fields
Bovanenkovo (cenoman-aptian)
Urengoyskoye (cenoman)
Medvezhye (cenoman)
Yamburg (cenoman)
Zapolyarnoye (cenoman)
Yubileynoye
Yamsoveyskoye
other fields
STRATEGY
vk.com/id446425943
KEY EXPORT ROUTES: LOOKING WEST AND EAST
LNG plant |
Production region |
Existing project |
Export pipeline |
1.5 mtpa Nominal capacity |
Project under construction |
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LNG Portovaya CS
1.5 mtpa
Nord Stream1
55 bcm
Nord Stream 2
55 bcm
Yamal – Europe
33 bcm
Central Corridor2
n/a
TurkStream 
31.5 bcm
Blue Stream
16 bcm
YAMAL
EAST SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST
NADYM–PUR–TAZ
Power of Siberia |
Sakhalin–2 |
38 bcm |
9.6 mtpa |
1 The sum оf pipeline transport capacities does not equal to Gazprom’s full export capacity due to only largest infrastructureprojects being shown on the graph.
2 Capacity of the Central Corridor remains unclear due to lack of accurate data on current state of the Ukrainian pipeline system.
3 As for 20.02.2019, construction status of Nord Stream 2, TurkStream (offshore part), “Chayanda field – Russia-China border” part of Power of Siberia pipeline.
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PIPELAY COMPLETION3
NORD STREAM 2: >30 %
TURKSTREAM:
100%
POWER OF SIBERIA: >99%
STRATEGY
vk.com/id446425943
GAZPROM IN EUROPE: STRENGTHENING PARTNERSHIP
EUROPEAN GAS DEMAND AND IMPORTS OUTLOOK
bcm |
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600 |
550 |
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Natural gas demand |
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559 |
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532 |
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400 |
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322-324 |
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407-454 |
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NATURAL GAS IMPORTS |
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300 |
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228 |
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200 |
203 |
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125 |
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100 |
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105 |
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2019 |
2021 |
2023 |
2025 |
2027 |
2029 |
2031 |
2033 |
2035 |
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Wood Mackenzie |
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Minimum imports |
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HIS Markit |
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9 |
Sources: Gazprom, Wood Mackenzie, IHS Markit |
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EUROPEAN IMPORTS IN 2018
bcm
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150 |
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3:1 |
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100.5 |
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.25 |
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Other countries |
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countries |
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1 |
2 |
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US LNG |
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Pipeline gas from Russia* |
LNG, total imports** |
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DAILY RATION |
1 FAST-FOOD MEAL |
1 FIG |
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FIGURATIVE |
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2500 kcal |
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~900 kcal |
~46 kcal |
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1 |
Including Turkey and excluding the Baltic states |
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2 |
Total LNG imports include supplies from projects in the US |
STRATEGY |
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vk.com/id446425943
GAZPROM AND CHINA: MARKET LEADERS MEET
CHINA — WORLD’S GAS IMPORTER #1 |
GAZPROM’S SUPPLY TO CHINA |
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bcm |
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600 |
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400 |
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IMPORTS |
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UNCONVENTIONAL PRODUCTION1 OR |
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200 |
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IMPORTS |
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CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTION |
0 |
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2018 |
2025 |
2035 |
By 2035, gas consumption in China more than doubles. Unclear future of unconventional gas production reveals huge potential for additional gas imports
•The largest gas sales agreement in history
•New projects are coming
•Proximity of resource base to the market
•Risk-free supplies
•Strong political ties
Sources: Gazprom, IEA, Wood Mackenzie, IHS Markit
1 |
Unconventional production includes shale gas, coal bed/mine methane, coal to gas and do not include tight gas |
10 |
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GAZPROM — TO BECOME #1 CHINA SUPPLIER
15% |
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30% |
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10% |
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20% |
5% |
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10% |
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Share in gas consumption (left axis) |
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0% |
Share in total gas imports (right axis) |
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0% |
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2018 |
2025 |
2035 |
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2019 - start of Gazprom’s supply to China
2035 - Gazprom’s market share in China
•in gas consumption 13%
•in gas imports > 25%
STRATEGY
vk.com/id446425943
AMUR GAS PROCESSING PLANT: MONETIZATION OF HELIUM AND LPG RESERVES
SCOPE OF THE PROJECT
Russia’s #1 and among top world’s gas processing plants
World’s #1 helium production plant
CONSTRUCTION STATUS AND TIMELINE
2015: |
20.02.2019 |
2024: |
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Start of |
Now: 30 % |
Reaching 100 % |
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construction |
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capacity |
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FEED GAS
PROCESSING
42 bcm |
SUPPLIES TO SIBUR’S |
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AMUR GAS CHEMICAL |
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COMPLEX |
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ETHANE: 2 mmt |
EXPORTS TO CHINA
MARKETED GAS 38 bcm
CHINA
Vanino
EXPORTS TO ASIA
PROPANE: 1 mmt
BUTANE: 0.5 mmt
Vladivostok
EXPORTS TO ASIA |
Tokyo |
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HELIUM 60 mmcm |
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JAPAN |
Pipeline
Railway
Sea routes
Truck
Amur gas processing plant
Gas supply route
Helium supply route
LPG supply route
11 |
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STRATEGY |
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vk.com/id446425943
GAZPROM IN RUSSIA: STRENGTHENING THE LEADING POSITION
GAS SHARE IN FUEL MIX IN RUSSIA |
GAS PRODUCTION IN RUSSIA1,2 |
GAS CONSUMPITION IN RUSSIA1,2 |
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2018 |
2035 |
~53%
GAZPROM’S SHARE IN 2018
SOURCES:
1Draft Russian Energy Strategy until 2035 (as of March 2017)
22018 data is Gazprom’s estimate
3Share of Gazprom’s marketed gas and own use gas
in gas consumption in Russia, preliminary estimates
4 Draft was approved by Russia’s Security Council on November 29,2018
bcm |
+5-20% |
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+4-5% |
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900 |
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520 |
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875 |
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503 |
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800 |
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480 |
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725 |
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480 |
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700 |
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600 |
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440 |
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500 |
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400 |
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2018 |
2035 |
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2018 |
2035 |
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69% (+4 pp from 2016) |
58% (+3 pp from 2016)3 |
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Alteration of PJSC Gazprom organizational |
The functions of PJSC Gazprom |
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structure is neither expected nor legally |
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stipulated |
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entirety |
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Russia's Energy Security Doctrine4 |
Draft Russian Еnergy Strategy until 2035 |
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12 |
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STRATEGY |
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vk.com/id446425943
INVESTMENT IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF GAS BUSINESS
ANNUAL AVERAGE INVESTMENT (IN REAL TERMS) |
ANNUAL AVERAGE INVESTMENT UP TO 2035 |
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RUB bn1
1,400 |
HIGH GAS DEMAND CASE |
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BY SEGMENT
1,200 |
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1,000 |
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55% |
45% |
800 |
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600 |
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400 |
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Downstream |
200 |
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Upstream |
0 |
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2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022-2035 |
BY REGION |
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(annual average) |
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GROWTH TO 2018, % |
2035 |
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81% |
19% |
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Maintenance costs2 |
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Production |
+[13-23]% |
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European Russia and West Siberia (UGTS) |
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Exports to far-abroad countries |
+[22-39]% |
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East Siberia and the Far East |
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1 |
2018 prices, including VAT |
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2 |
Costs of modifying of existing operational facilities, within the Unified Gas Supply System zone(including production, transport and processing) |
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STRATEGY |
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