К победе не готовы

Евгений Минченко считает, что единственным прорывным шансом для оппозиции может быть выход Геннадия Зюганова во второй тур.

"Если бы партия поменяла лидера примерно год назад, она могла бы рассчитывать на 30-35% голосов. Даже при старом руководителе КПРФ может попытаться организовать народно-патриотическое движение, как это было в 1996 году, но коммунисты морально к этому не готовы", - обращает внимание политолог.

Станислав Белковский видит иной вариант эффективной коалиции: единым кандидатом от оппозиции может стать депутат Госдумы от "Справедливой России" Оксана Дмитриева.

"Она – полная противоположность Владимиру Путину. Он – брутальный, даже приблатненный мужчина, Дмитриева – интеллигентная женщина", - указывает Белковский.

Однако эксперт уточняет, что уже заявленные оппозиционными партиями кандидаты в президенты свидетельствуют о невозможности реализации такой коалиции и выдвижения единого кандидата.

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На прошлой неделе все крупнейшие социологические службы обнародовали свои последние предвыборные исследования. "Единая Россия" провела предвыборный съезд и выдвинула кандидатом в президенты Владимира Путина. Дмитрий Медведев обрушился на американскую ПРО. Еврозона все глубже погружалась в долговой кризис.

Сегодня, 28 ноября, страна выходит на финишную прямую выборной парламентской гонки. У партий и политиков остаются последние шансы напомнить о себе избирателю и привести его на выборы. Вся прошедшая неделя прошла под знаком грядущих выборов, и фактически все политические события в России, заявления, поступки и жесты были так или иначе связаны с выборной кампанией. Последние рейтингиИх на прошлой неделе предоставили прессе ведущие социологические службы страны.

Всероссийский центр исследования общественного мнения (ВЦИОМ) 25 ноября дал свой последний предвыборный прогноз. По данным социологов, на выборах депутатов Госдумы 4 декабря в парламент пройдут четыре партии. За "Единую Россию", согласно информации ВЦИОМ, проголосуют 53,7% избирателей, за КПРФ - 16,7%, за ЛДПР - 11,6%, "Справедливая Россия" - 10%.

Днем позже свое исследование обнародовал Левада-центр. Цифры соцслужб близки: по "Леваде", ЕР может получить 53% голосов, КПРФ - 20%, ЛДПР – 12%, "Справедливая Россия" – 9%.

Социологи из Фонда "Общественное мнение" на прошлой неделе также опубликовали свои данные. Они близки к выводам коллег, хотя и не полностью их повторяют: за ЕР готовы проголосовать 39%, за КПРФ — 12%, за ЛДПР — 10%, за "Справедливую Россию" - 9% избирателей.

Все соцслужбы выявляют две основные тенденции. Первая – партия власти набирает большинство, но теряет тотальное преимущество. Если выводы опросов верны, то ЕР не сможет набрать в Думе в одиночку конституционное большинство, хотя и получит существенно больше половины депутатских кресел – от 240 до 263 по разным опросам.

Вторая тенденция – резкий набор высоты "Справедливой Россией", которую все соцслужбы уверенно проводят в Госдуму, хотя еще недавно их опросы подобного не предполагали (партия еще в октябре получала, согласно замерам, около 6% голосов).

Таким образом, если ничего резко не изменится в ближайшем будущем (например, настроения в партии власти), нас снова ждет четырехфракционный парламент, с большинством ЕР, правда, без конституционного, подавляющего большинства.

THE POLITICAL Sergey Mironov will be put forward by the candidate for presidents from "Fair Russia". Official promotion will pass at congress on December, 10th. Experts have specified that the demand about the candidate for presidents can add СР voices on elections to Duma. The head of fraction "Fair Russia" in the State Duma, informal party leader Sergey Mironov at press conference declared today that it or someone else from its party intend to stand in presidents of the Russian Federation. Moreover, in case of a victory эсеров their forces will create the government which Oksana Dmitriev can head. We will not support on elections of the candidate from "United Russia". On December, 10th our candidate - Oksana Dmitriev, Nikolay Levichev or I will be put forward. If the party renders trust I am ready ", - the leader эсеров has told. Words of the party leader have been supported also formal "by number 1" "Fair Russia" Nikolay Levichevym. "Sergey Mironov was a member of Security Council, made the international visits. It has the greatest chances of a victory. And we go to win", - he has told. Before a number of mass-media, referring to sources in party, have specified that the candidate for presidents becomes either party leader Nikolay Levichev, or the deputy of the State Duma from СР, the head of the Petersburg branch Oksana Dmitriev. Nikolay Levichev has denied these hearings. As he said, at congress it will support as the candidate on a post of the president of the country of Sergey Mironov, and Oksana Dmitriev is a potential prime minister in the government справедливороссов if they come to power. The experts interrogated Firstnews, are assured that Nikolay Levicheva's nominee as the candidate for presidents in party and was not considered. In their opinion, in "Fair Russia" there are only two well-known all to the country of the politician: Sergey Mironov and Oksana Dmitriev. "Dmitriev it is known enough and popular, it could criticise the candidate from" an United Russia ", Vladimir Putin that Mironov, I think, does not want to do. Thus she well owns a social problematics, to the prime minister such opponent is not favourable", - Pavel Salin has explained Firstnews. The director of institute of selective technologies Evgenie Suchkov notices that promotion of the candidate from СР – result of long discussion. "All the same эсеры, for the present have not up to the end got rid of image of party created it is artificial, - Evgenie Suchkov has designated the point of view in conversation with Firstnews. Pavel Salin disagrees with it: as he said, at least in consciousness of voters СР it is not perceived any more as the party in power №2. "Sergey Mironov has almost got rid of image of the system politician. It is result of purposeful criticism of the party in power", - Pavel Salin specifies. The expert says that people now consider "Fair Russia" as an oppositional left-wing party, for some it becomes alternative of Communist Party. However Pavel Salin has underlined that while seriously compete to Vladimir Putin the candidate from эсеров cannot. 2 The majority of the Russian parties was practically defined with the candidates on presidential election. Experts specify that seriously from system oppositionists competes to Vladimir Putin can nobody. Presidential campaign will be where more easy parliamentary, and the opposition cannot propose the uniform candidate. While from party candidates prime minister Vladimir Putin who was supported by""United Russia"is officially put forward only. However informally the candidates have declared all Duma parties. From the Communist Party of the Russian Federation its leader Gennady Zyuganov will act, the LDPR by tradition will expose Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Today the intrigue around" Fair Russia "was practically resolved, the candidate from which becomes, probably, Sergey Mironov. Experts Firstnews are assured that strong candidates from not system opposition in presidential elections accept participations cannot, as at them it will not turn out to collect in time the signature (them it is necessary two million). From presidential campaign political scientists of surprises do not wait. "The system opposition plays the main participation under the Kremlin scenario and puts forward the leaders. An overall objective of their participation in elections – легитимация Vladimir Putin's victories. Probably that it will receive 60 %, Zyuganov – 20 %, the rest - Zhirinovsky – 10 %, Mironov – 5 %. It will be enough for statements of Party members that they will not leave anywhere from the posts and have become stronger in the niches", - the director of institute of national strategy Stanislav Belkovsky predicts. Thus he specifies in an underside of strategy of blogger Alexey Navalnogo (to vote for any candidate, except the candidate of the power): these actions conduct to fixing of a state of affairs in opposition though changes are necessary to it. The director of institute of the international political examination Evgenie Minchenko is assured that leaders of opposition parties psychologically are not ready to take the power. Thus Gennady Zyuganov and Vladimir Zhirinovsky cause in voters weariness. "Sergey Mironov does not cause it: it in the politician also has spent not so long ago a rebrending, now it the oppositional politician. However Zyuganov's rating all the same above", - is explained by the expert. According to the vice-president of institute of political technologies Rostislava Turovsky, oppositional candidates the presence only fix the position in the politician. "Heat and pathos of criticism not so is strong, as during parliamentary campaign. Splash in protest activity will be connected with it. The matter is that during elections in the State Duma struggle follows quantity of mandates, behind it there are concrete interests. Therefore the opposition actively criticises the power. In presidential campaign the scenario absolutely other: the winner is actually known in advance, to quarrel with it wants nobody", - Rostislav Turovsky has declared Firstnews. To a victory are not ready Evgenie Minchenko considers that прорывным chance for opposition Gennady Zyuganov's exit in the second round can be unique. "If the party has changed the leader approximately one year ago, she could count on 30-35 % of voices. Even at the old head of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation can try to organise national-patriotic movement as it was in 1996, but communists morally are not ready to it", - the political scientist pays attention. Stanislav Belkovsky sees other variant of an effective coalition: the deputy of the State Duma from "Fair Russia" Oksana Dmitriev can become the uniform opposition candidate. "It – the complete antithesis to Vladimir Putin. He – brutal, even приблатненный the man, Dmitriev – the intelligent woman", - specifies Belkovsky. However the expert specifies that candidates already declared by opposition parties for presidents testify to impossibility of realisation of such coalition and promotion of the uniform candidate. 3 Last week all largest sociological services have published the last pre-election researches. "United Russia" has spent pre-election congress and has put forward the candidate for Vladimir Putin's presidents. Dmitry Medvedev has fallen upon the American ABM. The euro area all plunged into debt crisis more deeply. Today, on November, 28th, the country leaves on a home straight of elective parliamentary race. Parties and politicians still have last chances to remind of themselves to the voter and to result it on elections. All last week has passed under the badge of future elections, and actually all political events in Russia, statements, acts and gestures have been anyhow connected with elective campaign. Last ratings They last week were given to the press by leading sociological services of the country. The All-Russia centre of research of public opinion (ВЦИОМ) has given on November, 25th the last pre-election forecast. According to sociologists, on elections of deputies of the State Duma on December, 4th in parliament will pass four parties. For "United Russia", according to information ВЦИОМ, 53,7 % of voters, for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 16,7 %, for LDPR - 11,6 %, "Fair Russia" - 10 % will vote. One day later the research was published by the Levada-centre. Figures соцслужб are close: on "Levade", ЕР can receive 53 % of voices, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 20 %, LDPR – 12 %, "Fair Russia" – 9 %. Sociologists from Fund "Public opinion" last week also have published the data. They are close to conclusions of colleagues though and not completely them repeat: for ЕР 39 %, for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation — 12 %, for LDPR — 10 %, for "Fair Russia" - 9 % of voters are ready to vote. All соцслужбы is revealed by two basic tendencies. The first – the party in power types the majority, but loses total advantage. If conclusions of polls are true, ЕР cannot type in the Duma alone the constitutional majority though will receive essentially more half of deputy armchairs – from 240 to 263 on different polls. The second tendency – sharp ascent by "Fair Russia" which all соцслужбы confidently spend to the State Duma though still recently their polls of the similar did not assume (party in October received, according to gaugings, about 6 % of voices). Thus, if anything sharply will not change in the near future (for example, moods in the party in power), us again waited by four-fractional parliament, with majority ЕР, truth, without the constitutional, overwhelming majority.