Сельское хозяйство под вопросом

Одним из спорных вопросов, тормозящих вступление нашей страны в ВТО, была поддержка сельского хозяйства. Всемирная торговая организация не приветствует протекционистские меры государства в отношении аграриев, поскольку они стимулируют производство и искажают условия внешней торговли. Государство, вступающее в ВТО, должно сократить субсидии сельхозпроизводителям, отказаться от экспортных дотаций и снизить таможенные пошлины на зарубежную продукцию, что идет вразрез с российской политикой развития АПК.

Сейчас переговоры о совокупных мерах поддержки российских сельхозпроизводителей в рамках ВТО завершены. С момента вступления во Всемирную торговую организацию и до 2012 года наша страна обещает зафиксировать объем государственной поддержки сельского хозяйства на уровне девяти миллиардов долларов. За период с 2013 до 2017 год эти показатели должны снизиться до 4,4 миллиарда долларов. Впрочем, фактически объем дотаций российским аграриям в ближайшие пять лет урезан не будет: сейчас на развитие АПК в стране тратится чуть больше трех миллиардов долларов в год.

Как считает доктор экономических наук, заведующая кафедрой аграрной экономики Новгородского государственного университета имени Ярослава Мудрого Людмила Киркорова, после вступления России в ВТО наибольшие потери понесут предприятия малого и среднего аграрного бизнеса, продукция которых не сможет конкурировать с аналогичными товарами зарубежных производителей. "В идеале, региональным властям уже сейчас следовало бы приступить к разработке программ поддержки малых сельхозпредприятий, используя все дозволенные правилами Всемирной торговой организации финансовые инструменты", - подчеркивает Людмила Киркорова.

Как рассказал корреспонденту "РГ" председатель совета Центрального союза потребительских сообществ РФ (Центросоюз) Евгений Кузнецов, в рамках ВТО государственная помощь предприятиям агропромышленного комплекса делится на меры "желтой" и "зеленой" корзины. "Желтая" корзина подразумевает прямые дотации сельхозпроизводителям, "зеленая" - косвенные. "При вступлении в ВТО Россия должна сократить меры именно "желтой" поддержки", - поясняет Евгений Кузнецов.

- Впрочем, сейчас российские аграрии рады любой помощи - прямой или косвенной, - продолжает тему председатель совета Ассоциации отраслевых союзов АПК (АССАГРОС) Виктор Семенов. По его словам, чрезвычайно востребованной оказалась программа утилизации и замены техники, ведь парк в АПК изношен по большинству позиций до 70 процентов. Не менее актуальны проблемы подготовки квалифицированных кадров, развития инфраструктуры. "Подобные затраты вписываются в "зеленую", неограниченную корзину, - отмечает Виктор Семенов. - Но дело в том, что все эти средства берутся из одного бюджета, а пока реальность такова: при всем колоссальном прогрессе в шкале господдержки российского АПК в итоге мы имеем лишь 1,2 процента от бюджета. В США, если сравнивать, 24 процента, в ЕС - 33 процента, в Беларуси - 21 процент. Так что есть куда расти".

Что касается плюсов для российского АПК, то вместе с членством в ВТО Россия получит возможность вести полноправные переговоры о поставках нашей продукции на рынки стран Всемирной торговой организации, отмечают эксперты "РГ". "Сегодня Россия - крупный экспортер зерна, потенциальный экспортер мяса птицы и свинины, а в дальнейшем, возможно, и молочных продуктов, - рассказывает председатель правления Национального союза производителей молока Андрей Даниленко. - Поэтому сельхозпроизводители крайне заинтересованы в расширении зарубежных рынков сбыта".

Тем временем

Эксперты считают, что вступление России в ВТО может привести к банкротству ряда отечественных автопроизводителей. По прогнозу минэкономразвития, после вступления в ВТО производство легковых автомобилей в стране к 2014 году может снизиться на 58 процентов по сравнению с результатами 2010 года, а грузовых - на 98 процентов. Некоторые эксперты настаивают на том, что эти прогнозы сбудутся, так как для автопроизводителей работа на территории нашей страны сулит ряд преимуществ. Прежде всего, это обороты. Никто не станет останавливать завод мощностью 300 тысяч машин в год. Во-вторых, это дешевая рабочая сила. В-третьих, экономия с точки зрения логистики, а также возможность после вступления в ВТО торговли с пограничными государствами.

Doors open As the introduction of Russia into the World Trade Organization will be reflected in economy of regions of the Northwest Economic benefit of accession to WTO will add Russia of growth of gross national product of 3,3 percent annually throughout several next years. Such positive forecast has published one of these days the World bank. "We don't doubt that Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization stimulates a healthy competition, innovations, the international cooperation and economic growth, - the general director of the international Association of the European business Frank Shauff has commented on a situation. - it is expected that in the near future in the market of the Russian Federation there will be new investors. However those European companies which and successfully work for a long time already here, will receive side benefits as the business environment in the country will be more predicted and legally transparent". Formally our country will access to WTO in the middle of December at conference of ministers of member countries of the World Trade Organization in Geneva, and to live on norms of the organization the Russian business will begin already with the middle of next year. Correspondents of "the Russian newspaper" have asked experts in sphere of economy, regional development and agriculture as accession to WTO will be reflected in position of home producers in whole and economy of regions of the Northwest in particular. The minus has found on plus - The WTO has been created that the countries could compete with each other, eliminating barriers on a way of trade and free movement of factors of manufacture, - Pavel Usanov marks managing chair of the economic theory of the Higher school of economy. Also adds that Russia aspired to access to WTO for a long time to have possibility to play by one rules with all participants of world trade, which now more than 150. As Pavel Usanov considers, possibility of the civilized decision of the trading disputes which absence leads now to serious losses of our manufacturers becomes plus from the introduction into the World Trade Organization for our country. "A unique lack from accession to WTO I see the fact that we have dragged out this process, - the expert continues. - with 150 countries will much more difficult agree, than with 50. The price of" the ticket "in the WTO became for Russia above, than could be. Besides, the WTO not completely deprives of the country of protectionist measures so, not always the introduction into the World organization reaches the purpose of liberalization of trade". According to the deputy director on a science of the international center of social and economic researches "Leontyevsky the center" Leonid Limonova, at Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization considerable benefit will be received by frontier regions where the volume of international trade and foreign investments will grow. "If to speak about СЗФО, it concerns, first of all, large seaports: St.-Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Murmansk, - Leonid Limonov explains. - in plus remain as subjects of Federation with the developed export sector: the Vologda area (metal), Kareliya (wood), and all Northwest as a whole. To reach these positive effects, frontier regions should develop more actively a transport infrastructure, boundary transitions and throughput of transport networks". Struggle for the market Decrease or partial cancellation of the customs duties on a number of the foreign goods imported into our country can become an appreciable minus from the point of view of the domestic companies. "Noncompetitive Russian manufacturers should modernize and re-structure the manufacture or leave from the market", - Leonid Limonov tells about possible risks. Also adds that first of all under blow gets domestic avia- and motor industry, the mechanical engineering most part, секторы financial and insurance services. First of all under blow gets domestic avia - mashino - and motor industry, секторы financial and insurance services To the foreign companies Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization, on the contrary, will allow to increase a commodity market in our country. "Activity of the foreign insurance companies in Russia will essentially become simpler, it becomes easier to import into our country foreign to the aircraft technician", - the senior lecturer of chair of the financial markets and financial management of the Higher school of economy in St.-Petersburg Ivan Kotljarov results concrete examples. Also notices that now the federal and regional authorities should search for possibilities of support of strategic branches of the Russian economy which the introduction of Russia into trading organization will affect most adversely within the limits of WTO rules. For liberalization of access of foreign production on the Russian market the transition period which will last from two-three till five-seven years is already provided. It is planned that next year about half of import duties remains at level of current blanket tariffs of the Customs union. And about third of rates will be lowered no more, than for five percent. For example, duties on import medicines won't disappear, and only will decrease with 15 to 5-6,5 percent. Rates on household to the electrical engineer and electronics will fall with 15 to 9-7 percent. Besides, refusal of Russia of customs barriers will bring to home producers not only losses, but also benefits, participants of poll don't deny. In particular, the Russian companies can buy necessary technologies, accessories and the equipment abroad at lower prices. Agriculture in doubt Agriculture support was one of the questions at issue, braking the introduction of our country into the WTO. The World Trade Organization doesn't welcome protectionist measures of the state concerning landowners as they stimulate manufacture and deform foreign trade conditions. The state which is accessing to WTO, should reduce grants to agricultural manufacturers, refuse export grants and lower the customs duties on foreign production that runs counter to the Russian policy of development of agrarian and industrial complex. Now negotiations about cumulative measures of support of the Russian agricultural manufacturers within the limits of the WTO are finished. From the moment of the introduction into the World Trade Organization and till 2012 our country promises to fix volume of the state support of agriculture at level of nine billions dollars. From 2013 to 2017 these indicators should decrease to 4,4 billion dollars. However, actually the volume of grants to the Russian landowners the next five years will not be cut down: now for agrarian and industrial complex development in the country it is spent hardly more three billions dollars a year. As the Doctor of Economics, managing chair of agrarian economy of the Novgorod state university of a name of Yaroslav the Wise Lyudmila Kirkorov considers, after Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization the greatest losses will incur the enterprises of the small and average agrarian business which production can't compete to the similar goods of foreign manufacturers. "In an ideal, to the regional authorities already now followed start working out of programs of support of small agricultural productions, using all permitted by World Trade Organization rules financial tools", - Lyudmila Kirkorov underlines. As the chairman of the council of the Central union of consumer communities of the Russian Federation (Центросоюз) Evgenie Kuznetsov has told to the correspondent "РГ", within the limits of the WTO the state help to the agriculture enterprises shares on measures of a "yellow" and "green" basket. "The yellow" basket means direct grants to agricultural manufacturers, "green" - indirect. "At accession to WTO Russia should reduce measures" yellow "support", - Evgenie Kuznetsov explains. - However, now the Russian landowners are glad to any help - direct or indirect, - the chairman of the council of Association of the branch unions of agrarian and industrial complex (АССАГРОС) Victor Semenov continues a theme. As he said, extremely demanded there was a program of recycling and technics replacement, after all the park in agrarian and industrial complex is worn out on the majority of positions to 70 percent. Problems of preparation of qualified personnel, infrastructure developments aren't less actual. "Similar expenses are entered in" green ", an unlimited basket, - Victor Semenov marks. - But the matter is that all these means undertake from one budget for now the reality is that: at all enormous progress in a scale of state support of the Russian agrarian and industrial complex as a result we have only 1,2 percent from the budget. In the USA if to compare, 24 percent, in EU - 33 percent, in Belarus - 21 percent. So is where to grow". As to pluses for the Russian agrarian and industrial complex together with WTO membership Russia will have an opportunity to carry on full negotiations for deliveries of our production to the markets of the countries of the World Trade Organization, experts "РГ" mark. "Today Russia - a grain big exporter, potential the exporter of fowl and pork, and in further, probably, and dairy products, - tells the chairman of the board of the National union of manufacturers of milk Andrey Danilenko. - Therefore agricultural manufacturers are extremely interested in expansion of foreign commodity markets". In the meantime Experts consider that Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization can lead to bankruptcy of some domestic motor-car manufacturers. Under the forecast минэкономразвития, after accession to WTO manufacture of cars in the country by 2014 can decrease for 58 percent in comparison with results of 2010, and cargo - for 98 percent. Some experts insist that these forecasts will come true as for motor-car manufacturers work in territory of our country promises a number of advantages. First of all, it is turns. Nobody begins to stop factory capacity of 300 thousand cars in a year. Secondly, it is cheap labor. Thirdly, economy from the point of view of logistics, and also possibility after accession to WTO of trade with limitrophes.