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<<< < Предыдущая 12 / 22

World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2013	11

Supply and demand balances

At global level, unless demand increases beyond expectations, development projects in supply capacities, especially at the end of the projection period for N and K, will lead to large potential surpluses of fertilizer.

During the outlook period, the balance/demand ratio remains stable for P2O5 (8%) and increases markedly for N (from 5% to 9%) and K2O (from 25% to 35%).

Mio t nutrient 20

15

				N
				N
10				P2O5



				K2O

	5
	0
	Africa	Americab
	-5	Americab
	-5	n
		a
	Latin	b
	Latin	Cari
	&

-10

Nutrient balance in 2013

sia
tA
s
Ea
rica
Ame	South	Asia
No	South
rth

	Asia	rope		&	Asia				ia	World
	Asia	rope			Asia			a
		Eu						O	n
West			Central					ce
West			Central		est			&
Eastern					est			Eu
						r		rope
						e	n
					W	ral
					Cent

Table 5 : World and regional balances 2008 to 2013

		Potential nutrient balance (thousand tonnes)
Region		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013

Africa	N	1 448	1 957	1 963	2 537	2 749	3 729
	P2O5	4 580	4 274	4 390	4 836	5 374	5 714
	K2O	- 454	- 472	- 500	- 527	- 545	- 382
East Asia	N	- 1 939	- 1 120	- 471	- 78	943	662
	P2O5	133	507	1 205	1 692	1 890	2 049
	K2O	- 7 319	- 6 958	- 7 426	- 7 642	- 7 651	- 7 492
Eastern Europe	N	14 060	13 883	13 805	13 563	14 095	14 308
and Central Asia	P2O5	2 323	2 306	2 285	2 343	2 298	2 235
	K2O	10 082	10 316	10 748	11 397	12 151	12 702
Latin America	N	1 087	984	602	509	1 574	2 342
and the Caribbean	P2O5	- 2 931	- 2 680	- 3 018	- 3 090	- 3 104	- 3 099
	K2O	- 3 770	- 3 660	- 3 939	- 4 195	- 4 486	- 4 452
North America	N	- 6 024	- 6 841	- 7 354	- 7 645	- 7 935	- 8 226
	P2O5	4 682	4 591	4 277	4 152	4 055	3 959
	K2O	8 935	9 484	9 435	10 100	11 350	12 127
Oceania	N	- 119	- 128	- 168	- 206	- 167	- 294
	P2O5	- 162	- 114	- 122	- 151	- 174	- 194
	K2O	- 336	- 302	- 320	- 335	- 350	- 359
South Asia	N	- 6 209	- 6 369	- 6 234	- 6 722	- 6 753	- 6 753
	P2O5	- 5 236	- 5 681	- 5 815	- 6 182	- 6 553	- 6 941
	K2O	- 3 653	- 3 482	- 3 598	- 3 826	- 4 050	- 4 275
West Asia	N	5 793	6 267	6 602	8 781	9 560	10 919
	P2O5	679	570	527	647	1 275	1 450
	K2O	3 024	3 051	3 268	3 392	3 495	3 467
Western and	N	- 1 789	- 1 624	- 2 170	- 2 509	- 2 902	- 3 259
Central Europe	P2O5	- 1 498	- 1 150	- 1 370	- 1 527	- 1 682	- 1 769
	K2O	859	1 557	1 320	1 120	912	790
World	N	6 309	7 010	6 576	8 231	11 163	13 429
	P2O5	2 570	2 624	2 360	2 721	3 381	3 404
	K2O	7 370	9 534	8 989	9 484	10 827	12 126

World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2013	12

The regional fertilizer situation

Africa

Africa will increase its role as a major N exporter with the new capacities to be implemented in Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria.

Africa will also strengthen its position as a net exporter of P2O5, with new projects in Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt.

The projects for potash in the Congo at the end of the period will not be sufficient to compensate for the K2O deficit.

Table 6

Africa - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

	NH3	NH3	N Fert.	non	N	H3PO4	H3PO4	P Fert.	non	non	P2O5	Potash	Potash	non	K Fert.	K2O
	Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer Balance		Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer H3PO4		Balance	Capacity	Supply	Fertilizer	Cons.	Balance
	(as N)			Demand		(as P2O5)			Demand Fert.cons			(as K2O) (as K2O) Demand
2008	5 118	4 430	2 532	450	1 448	7 995	5 836	889	501	133	4 580	0	0	69	385	- 454
2009	5 911	5 125	2 710	458	1 957	8 145	5 620	938	549	141	4 274	0	0	75	398	- 472
2010	5 974	5 307	2 878	466	1 963	8 185	5 893	1 033	630	160	4 390	0	0	75	425	- 500
2011	6 869	6 029	3 019	473	2 537	8 545	6 409	1 064	679	170	4 836	0	0	81	446	- 527
2012	7 167	6 371	3 142	480	2 749	8 785	7 028	1 152	692	190	5 374	0	0	81	464	- 545
2013	8 614	7 510	3 264	517	3 729	9 000	7 650	1 201	939	204	5 714	370	185	87	480	- 382

Latin America

New N developments in Mexico and Venezuela will confirm the region’s position as exporter, despite an increase in demand (the balance/demand ratio increasing from 15% to 26%).

New capacities or reactivations in Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela will compensate for the increase in P2O5 consumption. The deficit will then remain stable in the region.

With regard to K2O, developments in Brazil, Chile and Argentina will not compensate for the increase in consumption.

Table 7

Latin America - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

	NH3	NH3	N Fert.	non	N	H3PO4	H3PO4	P Fert.	non	non	P2O5	Potash	Potash	non	K Fert.	K2O
	Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer Balance		Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer H3PO4		Balance	Capacity	Supply	Fertilizer	Cons.	Balance
	(as N)			Demand		(as P2O5)			Demand Fert.cons			(as K2O) (as K2O) Demand
2008	8 628	8 272	5 912	1 273	1 087	2 045	1 861	4 492	1 086	786	- 2 931	1 075	982	142	4 609	- 3 770
2009	8 879	8 245	5 937	1 324	984	2 309	2 010	4 447	999	756	- 2 680	1 195	1 036	141	4 555	- 3 660
2010	9 130	8 496	6 395	1 499	602	2 309	2 089	4 923	1 021	837	- 3 018	1 255	1 141	149	4 931	- 3 939
2011	9 623	8 891	6 699	1 683	509	2 539	2 273	5 221	1 030	888	- 3 090	1 255	1 141	154	5 182	- 4 195
2012	11 498	10 257	6 933	1 750	1 574	2 739	2 446	5 441	1 034	925	- 3 104	1 255	1 141	160	5 467	- 4 486
2013	12 830	11 288	7 170	1 776	2 342	3 799	2 713	5 662	1 113	963	- 3 099	2 695	1 438	165	5 725	- 4 452

North America

No change in N and P2O5 production is projected, increasing North America’s dependence on N imports (balance/consumption ratio varying from -34% to -42%). The region will remain an exporter of P2O5, despite an increase in fertilizer consumption (ratio varying from 90% to 67%).

Important potash expansion projects are expected in Canada, exceeding the increase in K2O regional consumption, and consequently the positive balance will increase significantly.

Table 8

North America - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

	NH3	NH3	N Fert.	non	N	H3PO4	H3PO4	P Fert.	non	non	P2O5	Potash	Potash	non	K Fert.	K2O
	Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer Balance		Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer H3PO4		Balance	Capacity	Supply	Fertilizer	Cons.	Balance
	(as N)			Demand		(as P2O5)			Demand Fert.cons			(as K2O) (as K2O) Demand
2008	13 050	11 760	13 029	4 756	- 6 024	9 911	9 860	4 092	1 086	0	4 682	15 840	13 802	1 044	3 822	8 935
2009	13 107	11 403	13 258	4 986	- 6 841	9 919	9 850	4 169	1 090	0	4 591	16 010	14 419	1 053	3 883	9 484
2010	13 121	11 415	13 588	5 181	- 7 354	9 919	9 850	4 450	1 123	0	4 277	16 525	14 927	1 070	4 422	9 435
2011	13 121	11 415	13 716	5 344	- 7 645	9 919	9 850	4 552	1 147	0	4 152	17 774	15 768	1 080	4 588	10 100
2012	13 121	11 415	13 844	5 506	- 7 935	9 919	9 850	4 646	1 149	0	4 055	21 194	17 186	1 088	4 749	11 350
2013	13 121	11 415	13 972	5 669	- 8 226	9 919	9 850	4 739	1 151	0	3 959	21 467	18 131	1 095	4 909	12 127

World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2013	13

East Asia

The regional N deficit will revert to annual surpluses, thanks to the increase in ammonia/urea capacities in China.

China will become more self-sufficient in P2O5 following large developments dedicated principally to DAP production.

In addition to the sustained increase in consumption, large projects for potash in China will contribute to limiting the deficit situation in K2O (balance/demand ratio varying from -76% to -63%).

Table 9

East Asia - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

	NH3	NH3	N Fert.	non	N	H3PO4	H3PO4	P Fert.	non	non	P2O5	Potash	Potash	non	K Fert.	K2O
	Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer Balance		Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer H3PO4		Balance	Capacity	Supply	Fertilizer	Cons.	Balance
	(as N)			Demand		(as P2O5)			Demand Fert.cons			(as K2O) (as K2O) Demand
2008	57 158	47 383	40 009	9 313	- 1 939	13 418	11 678	14 066	1 411	3 933	133	2 567	2 311	1 548	8 081	- 7 319
2009	60 123	49 311	40 813	9 618	- 1 120	14 476	12 733	14 573	1 474	3 821	507	3 277	2 859	1 572	8 245	- 6 958
2010	62 519	51 278	41 570	10 179	- 471	15 826	14 240	15 003	1 552	3 521	1 205	3 480	2 986	1 626	8 785	- 7 426
2011	64 734	52 984	42 286	10 776	- 78	16 485	15 324	15 383	1 585	3 336	1 692	3 750	3 359	1 676	9 325	- 7 642
2012	67 599	55 197	42 897	11 357	943	17 157	16 108	15 748	1 619	3 150	1 890	4 618	3 821	1 717	9 755	- 7 651
2013	68 142	55 963	43 511	11 790	662	17 257	16 794	16 095	1 628	2 978	2 049	5 160	4 427	1 728	10 191	- 7 492

South Asia

The development of N capacities will accompany demand, thus the deficit will remain more or less constant during the forecast period.

Capacity expansion projects for phosphoric acid will be limited compared with the high increase in demand. The region will thus continue to be a major P2O5 importer.

No potash supply is available; the K2O deficit will therefore strictly follow demand.

Table 10

South Asia - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

	NH3	NH3	N Fert.	non	N	H3PO4	H3PO4	P Fert.	non	non	P2O5	Potash	Potash	non	K Fert.	K2O
	Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer Balance		Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer H3PO4		Balance	Capacity	Supply	Fertilizer	Cons.	Balance
	(as N)			Demand		(as P2O5)			Demand Fert.cons			(as K2O) (as K2O) Demand
2008	15 408	14 205	19 512	902	- 6 209	2 121	1 463	7 482	227	1 010	- 5 236	0	0	106	3 547	- 3 653
2009	16 135	14 650	20 048	971	- 6 369	2 146	1 481	7 996	245	1 080	- 5 681	0	0	121	3 361	- 3 482
2010	16 664	15 313	20 436	1 110	- 6 234	2 150	1 688	8 331	255	1 083	- 5 815	0	0	117	3 480	- 3 598
2011	16 969	15 662	21 014	1 371	- 6 722	2 150	1 688	8 696	261	1 087	- 6 182	0	0	128	3 698	- 3 826
2012	17 581	16 225	21 587	1 390	- 6 753	2 150	1 688	9 060	268	1 087	- 6 553	0	0	136	3 914	- 4 050
2013	18 233	16 832	22 174	1 410	- 6 753	2 150	1 688	9 439	276	1 085	- 6 941	0	0	144	4 131	- 4 275

West Asia

New ammonia capacities are expected in Iran (Islamic Republic of), Qatar and Saudi Arabia, resulting in potentially large N surpluses in the region.

Developments in phosphoric acid projects in Saudi Arabia and Jordan will contribute to strengthening the region’s status as P2O5 exporter.

Expansion projects of potash production in Israel and Jordan will increase the region’s K2O surplus.

Table 11

West Asia - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

	NH3	NH3	N Fert.	non	N	H3PO4	H3PO4	P Fert.	non	non	P2O5	Potash	Potash	non	K Fert.	K2O
	Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer Balance		Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer H3PO4		Balance	Capacity	Supply	Fertilizer	Cons.	Balance
	(as N)			Demand		(as P2O5)			Demand Fert.cons			(as K2O) (as K2O) Demand
2008	10 433	9 231	2 933	505	5 793	2 235	1 675	1 001	85	90	679	3 420	3 420	83	313	3 024
2009	11 615	9 875	3 054	554	6 267	2 235	1 675	1 120	85	101	570	3 570	3 452	88	313	3 051
2010	11 615	10 355	3 131	622	6 602	2 235	1 675	1 169	85	105	527	3 965	3 692	94	331	3 268
2011	14 003	12 713	3 221	711	8 781	2 455	1 845	1 212	95	109	647	4 020	3 849	99	358	3 392
2012	14 927	13 617	3 319	739	9 560	3 955	2 570	1 266	130	101	1 275	4 020	3 975	105	375	3 495
2013	16 568	15 104	3 418	767	10 919	3 955	2 800	1 315	140	105	1 450	4 020	3 975	115	392	3 467

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

The large N surplus will remain stable since some expansions of capacity will be balanced by increasing demand. The region will remain a leading N exporter.

World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2013	14

P2O5 surplus is projected to remain stable since capacity increases will follow the growth in demand. Massive potash expansions are expected in Russia. Although rising demand is forecast, a potentially large K2O surplus may emerge.

Table 12

Eastern Europe & Central Asia - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

	NH3	NH3	N Fert.	non	N	H3PO4	H3PO4	P Fert.	non	non	P2O5	Potash	Potash	non	K Fert.	K2O
	Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer Balance		Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer H3PO4		Balance	Capacity	Supply	Fertilizer	Cons.	Balance
	(as N)			Demand		(as P2O5)			Demand Fert.cons			(as K2O) (as K2O) Demand
2008	21 023	19 235	3 587	1 588	14 060	4 426	3 080	880	194	317	2 323	11 905	11 304	71	1 150	10 082
2009	21 244	19 168	3 644	1 641	13 883	4 451	3 140	924	238	328	2 306	12 195	11 587	71	1 200	10 316
2010	21 429	19 338	3 826	1 707	13 805	4 506	3 185	996	252	349	2 285	13 245	12 076	78	1 250	10 748
2011	21 470	19 400	4 062	1 774	13 563	4 713	3 350	1 073	305	370	2 343	13 495	12 781	84	1 300	11 397
2012	22 819	20 253	4 315	1 842	14 095	4 733	3 371	1 161	306	395	2 298	15 195	13 592	91	1 350	12 151
2013	23 511	20 814	4 585	1 921	14 308	4 758	3 388	1 249	322	418	2 235	15 360	14 200	98	1 400	12 702

Western and Central Europe

According to EFMA, no major change in N production, combined with a slight increase in demand (fertilizers + non-fertilizers), will enhance the region’s status as net N importer (balance/demand ratio varying from -11% to -19%).

P2O5: due to the absence of new projects and a somewhat flat demand projection, the region’s deficit will differ little from the current situation.

K2O: no major capacity change is expected, thus potential surplus will depend on demand, forecast to recover from the present situation in 2013.

Table 13

Western & Central Europe - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

	NH3	NH3	N Fert.	non	N	H3PO4	H3PO4	P Fert.	non	non	P2O5	Potash	Potash	non	K Fert.	K2O
	Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer Balance		Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer H3PO4		Balance	Capacity	Supply	Fertilizer	Cons.	Balance
	(as N)			Demand		(as P2O5)			Demand Fert.cons			(as K2O) (as K2O) Demand
2008	16 508	14 589	10 974	5 404	- 1 789	2 322	1 578	2 758	769	452	- 1 498	5 590	4 624	532	3 233	859
2009	16 190	14 224	10 182	5 666	- 1 624	2 112	1 446	2 123	799	327	- 1 150	5 590	4 624	534	2 534	1 557
2010	16 183	14 289	10 511	5 948	- 2 170	2 112	1 446	2 330	842	356	- 1 370	5 590	4 651	553	2 777	1 320
2011	16 210	14 337	10 679	6 167	- 2 509	2 112	1 446	2 491	860	377	- 1 527	5 590	4 651	570	2 961	1 120
2012	16 210	14 348	10 847	6 404	- 2 902	2 112	1 446	2 651	875	399	- 1 682	5 590	4 651	584	3 155	912
2013	16 210	14 348	10 960	6 648	- 3 259	2 112	1 446	2 747	877	410	- 1 769	5 590	4 651	598	3 263	790

Oceania

No change is expected in N and P2O5 capacities. Demand remains constant, therefore the region will remain in deficit for N, P2O5 and K2O.

Table 14

Oceania - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

	NH3	NH3	N Fert.	non	N	H3PO4	H3PO4	P Fert.	non	non	P2O5	Potash	Potash	non	K Fert.	K2O
	Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer Balance		Capacity	Supply	Cons.	Fertilizer H3PO4		Balance	Capacity	Supply	Fertilizer	Cons.	Balance
	(as N)			Demand		(as P2O5)			Demand Fert.cons			(as K2O) (as K2O) Demand
2008	1 656	1 647	1 106	660	- 119	600	528	1 146	37	493	- 162	0	0	7	329	- 336
2009	1 656	1 647	1 079	695	- 128	600	540	1 084	36	466	- 114	0	0	6	297	- 302
2010	1 656	1 647	1 119	696	- 168	600	540	1 098	36	472	- 122	0	0	6	314	- 320
2011	1 656	1 647	1 155	697	- 206	600	540	1 147	37	493	- 151	0	0	7	328	- 335
2012	1 786	1 768	1 176	759	- 167	600	540	1 188	37	511	- 174	0	0	7	343	- 350
2013	1 786	1 779	1 191	883	- 294	600	540	1 222	37	526	- 194	0	0	7	352	- 359

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