
- •Preface
- •Part IV. Basic Single Equation Analysis
- •Chapter 18. Basic Regression Analysis
- •Equation Objects
- •Specifying an Equation in EViews
- •Estimating an Equation in EViews
- •Equation Output
- •Working with Equations
- •Estimation Problems
- •References
- •Chapter 19. Additional Regression Tools
- •Special Equation Expressions
- •Robust Standard Errors
- •Weighted Least Squares
- •Nonlinear Least Squares
- •Stepwise Least Squares Regression
- •References
- •Chapter 20. Instrumental Variables and GMM
- •Background
- •Two-stage Least Squares
- •Nonlinear Two-stage Least Squares
- •Limited Information Maximum Likelihood and K-Class Estimation
- •Generalized Method of Moments
- •IV Diagnostics and Tests
- •References
- •Chapter 21. Time Series Regression
- •Serial Correlation Theory
- •Testing for Serial Correlation
- •Estimating AR Models
- •ARIMA Theory
- •Estimating ARIMA Models
- •ARMA Equation Diagnostics
- •References
- •Chapter 22. Forecasting from an Equation
- •Forecasting from Equations in EViews
- •An Illustration
- •Forecast Basics
- •Forecasts with Lagged Dependent Variables
- •Forecasting with ARMA Errors
- •Forecasting from Equations with Expressions
- •Forecasting with Nonlinear and PDL Specifications
- •References
- •Chapter 23. Specification and Diagnostic Tests
- •Background
- •Coefficient Diagnostics
- •Residual Diagnostics
- •Stability Diagnostics
- •Applications
- •References
- •Part V. Advanced Single Equation Analysis
- •Chapter 24. ARCH and GARCH Estimation
- •Basic ARCH Specifications
- •Estimating ARCH Models in EViews
- •Working with ARCH Models
- •Additional ARCH Models
- •Examples
- •References
- •Chapter 25. Cointegrating Regression
- •Background
- •Estimating a Cointegrating Regression
- •Testing for Cointegration
- •Working with an Equation
- •References
- •Binary Dependent Variable Models
- •Ordered Dependent Variable Models
- •Censored Regression Models
- •Truncated Regression Models
- •Count Models
- •Technical Notes
- •References
- •Chapter 27. Generalized Linear Models
- •Overview
- •How to Estimate a GLM in EViews
- •Examples
- •Working with a GLM Equation
- •Technical Details
- •References
- •Chapter 28. Quantile Regression
- •Estimating Quantile Regression in EViews
- •Views and Procedures
- •Background
- •References
- •Chapter 29. The Log Likelihood (LogL) Object
- •Overview
- •Specification
- •Estimation
- •LogL Views
- •LogL Procs
- •Troubleshooting
- •Limitations
- •Examples
- •References
- •Part VI. Advanced Univariate Analysis
- •Chapter 30. Univariate Time Series Analysis
- •Unit Root Testing
- •Panel Unit Root Test
- •Variance Ratio Test
- •BDS Independence Test
- •References
- •Part VII. Multiple Equation Analysis
- •Chapter 31. System Estimation
- •Background
- •System Estimation Methods
- •How to Create and Specify a System
- •Working With Systems
- •Technical Discussion
- •References
- •Vector Autoregressions (VARs)
- •Estimating a VAR in EViews
- •VAR Estimation Output
- •Views and Procs of a VAR
- •Structural (Identified) VARs
- •Vector Error Correction (VEC) Models
- •A Note on Version Compatibility
- •References
- •Chapter 33. State Space Models and the Kalman Filter
- •Background
- •Specifying a State Space Model in EViews
- •Working with the State Space
- •Converting from Version 3 Sspace
- •Technical Discussion
- •References
- •Chapter 34. Models
- •Overview
- •An Example Model
- •Building a Model
- •Working with the Model Structure
- •Specifying Scenarios
- •Using Add Factors
- •Solving the Model
- •Working with the Model Data
- •References
- •Part VIII. Panel and Pooled Data
- •Chapter 35. Pooled Time Series, Cross-Section Data
- •The Pool Workfile
- •The Pool Object
- •Pooled Data
- •Setting up a Pool Workfile
- •Working with Pooled Data
- •Pooled Estimation
- •References
- •Chapter 36. Working with Panel Data
- •Structuring a Panel Workfile
- •Panel Workfile Display
- •Panel Workfile Information
- •Working with Panel Data
- •Basic Panel Analysis
- •References
- •Chapter 37. Panel Estimation
- •Estimating a Panel Equation
- •Panel Estimation Examples
- •Panel Equation Testing
- •Estimation Background
- •References
- •Part IX. Advanced Multivariate Analysis
- •Chapter 38. Cointegration Testing
- •Johansen Cointegration Test
- •Single-Equation Cointegration Tests
- •Panel Cointegration Testing
- •References
- •Chapter 39. Factor Analysis
- •Creating a Factor Object
- •Rotating Factors
- •Estimating Scores
- •Factor Views
- •Factor Procedures
- •Factor Data Members
- •An Example
- •Background
- •References
- •Appendix B. Estimation and Solution Options
- •Setting Estimation Options
- •Optimization Algorithms
- •Nonlinear Equation Solution Methods
- •References
- •Appendix C. Gradients and Derivatives
- •Gradients
- •Derivatives
- •References
- •Appendix D. Information Criteria
- •Definitions
- •Using Information Criteria as a Guide to Model Selection
- •References
- •Appendix E. Long-run Covariance Estimation
- •Technical Discussion
- •Kernel Function Properties
- •References
- •Index
- •Symbols
- •Numerics

296—Chapter 26. Discrete and Limited Dependent Variable Models
Suppose that the estimated QML equation is named EQ1 and that the results are given by:
Dependent Variable: NUMB
Method: ML/QML - Poisson Count (Quadratic hill climbing)
Date: 08/12/09 Time: 10:34
Sample: 1 103
Included observations: 103
Convergence achieved after 4 iterations
GLM Robust Standard Errors & Covariance
Variance factor estimate = 2.22642046954
Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives
Variable |
Coefficient |
Std. Error |
z-Statistic |
Prob. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C |
1.725630 |
0.065140 |
26.49094 |
0.0000 |
IP |
2.775334 |
1.222202 |
2.270766 |
0.0232 |
FEB |
-0.377407 |
0.260405 |
-1.449307 |
0.1473 |
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared |
0.064502 |
Mean dependent var |
5.495146 |
|
Adjusted R-squared |
0.045792 |
S.D. dependent var |
3.653829 |
|
S.E. of regression |
3.569190 |
Akaike info criterion |
5.583421 |
|
Sum squared resid |
1273.912 |
Schwarz criterion |
5.660160 |
|
Log likelihood |
-284.5462 |
Hannan-Quinn criter. |
5.614503 |
|
Restr. log likelihood |
-292.9694 |
LR statistic |
|
16.84645 |
Avg. log likelihood |
-2.762584 |
Prob(LR statistic) |
0.000220 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note that when you select the GLM robust standard errors, EViews reports the estimated variance factor. Then you can use EViews to compute p-value associated with this statistic, placing the results in scalars using the following commands:
scalar qlr = eq1.@lrstat/2.226420477 scalar qpval = 1-@cchisq(qlr, 2)
You can examine the results by clicking on the scalar objects in the workfile window and viewing the results. The QLR statistic is 7.5666, and the p-value is 0.023. The statistic and p- value are valid under the weaker conditions that the conditional mean is correctly specified, and that the conditional variance is proportional (but not necessarily equal) to the conditional mean.
Technical Notes
Default Standard Errors
The default standard errors are obtained by taking the inverse of the estimated information matrix. If you estimate your equation using a Newton-Raphson or Quadratic Hill Climbing method, EViews will use the inverse of the Hessian, Hˆ –1 , to form your coefficient covariance estimate. If you employ BHHH, the coefficient covariance will be estimated using the inverse of the outer product of the scores (gˆ gˆ ¢)–1 , where gˆ and Hˆ are the gradient (or score) and Hessian of the log likelihood evaluated at the ML estimates.

Technical Notes—297
Huber/White (QML) Standard Errors
The Huber/White options for robust standard errors computes the quasi-maximum likelihood (or pseudo-ML) standard errors:
ˆ |
= |
ˆ –1 |
|
ˆ |
–1 |
, |
(26.50) |
varQML(b) |
H |
gg¢H |
|
||||
|
|
|
ˆ ˆ |
|
|
|
|
Note that these standard errors are not robust to heteroskedasticity in binary dependent variable models. They are robust to certain misspecifications of the underlying distribution of y .
GLM Standard Errors
Many of the discrete and limited dependent variable models described in this chapter belong to a class of models known as generalized linear models (GLM). The assumption of GLM is that the distribution of the dependent variable yi belongs to the exponential family and that the conditional mean of yi is a (smooth) nonlinear transformation of the linear part xi¢b :
E(yi |
|
xi, b) = h(xi¢b). |
(26.51) |
|
Even though the QML covariance is robust to general misspecification of the conditional distribution of yi , it does not possess any efficiency properties. An alternative consistent estimate of the covariance is obtained if we impose the GLM condition that the (true) variance of yi is proportional to the variance of the distribution used to specify the log likelihood:
var(yi |
|
xi, b) = j2varML(yi |
|
xi, b). |
(26.52) |
|
|
In other words, the ratio of the (conditional) variance to the mean is some constant j2 that is independent of x . The most empirically relevant case is j2 > 1 , which is known as overdispersion. If this proportional variance condition holds, a consistent estimate of the GLM covariance is given by:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ˆ |
= |
ˆ |
2 |
|
ˆ |
|
|
(26.53) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
varGLM(b) |
j |
varML(b), |
|
||||||
where |
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|
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|
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|
|
ˆ |
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
N |
ˆ |
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
N |
ˆ 2 |
|
= |
|
|
 |
(yi – yi) |
|
= |
|
|
 |
ui |
(26.54) |
||||
j |
|
--------------- |
----------------------------- |
|
-------------- |
---------------------------------- . |
|||||||||
|
|
|
N – |
K |
|
ˆ |
|
|
|
N – K |
|
ˆ ˆ |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
i = 1 |
v(xi, b, gˆ ) |
|
|
|
|
i = 1 |
(v(xi, b, g)) |
|
If you select GLM standard errors, the estimated proportionality term jˆ 2 is reported as the variance factor estimate in EViews.
For more discussion on GLM and the phenomenon of overdispersion, see McCullaugh and Nelder (1989).

298—Chapter 26. Discrete and Limited Dependent Variable Models
The Hosmer-Lemeshow Test
Let the data be grouped into j = 1, 2, º, J groups, and let nj be the number of observations in group j . Define the number of yi = 1 observations and the average of predicted values in group j as:
y(j) = Â yi
i Œ j
(26.55)
|
|
ˆ |
|
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|
ˆ |
|
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||||||
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§ nj |
= Â (1 – F(–xi¢b)) § nj |
|
|||||
p(j) = Â pi |
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||||||||
|
|
i Œ j |
|
|
i Œ j |
|
|||
The Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic is computed as: |
|
||||||||
|
|
HL = |
J |
(y(j) – nj |
p |
(j))2 |
(26.56) |
||
|
|
 |
---------------------------------------- . |
||||||
|
|
|
j = 1 |
nj |
p |
(j)(1 – p(j)) |
|
||
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|
The distribution of the HL statistic is not known; however, Hosmer and Lemeshow (1989, p.141) report evidence from extensive simulation indicating that when the model is correctly specified, the distribution of the statistic is well approximated by a x2 distribution with J – 2 degrees of freedom. Note that these findings are based on a simulation where J is close to n .
The Andrews Test
Let the data be grouped into j = 1, 2, º, J groups. Since y is binary, there are 2J cells into which any observation can fall. Andrews (1988a, 1988b) compares the 2J vector of the actual number of observations in each cell to those predicted from the model, forms a quadratic form, and shows that the quadratic form has an asymptotic x2 distribution if the model is specified correctly.
Andrews suggests three tests depending on the choice of the weighting matrix in the quadratic form. EViews uses the test that can be computed by an auxiliary regression as described in Andrews (1988a, 3.18) or Andrews (1988b, 17).
Briefly, let A˜ be an n ¥ J matrix with element a˜ ij = 1(i Œ j) – pˆ i , where the indicator function 1(i Œ j) takes the value one if observation i belongs to group j with yi = 1 , and zero otherwise (we drop the columns for the groups with y = 0 to avoid singularity). Let B be the n ¥ K matrix of the contributions to the score ∂l(b) § ∂b¢. The Andrews test
statistic is n times the R |
2 |
˜ |
B . |
|
from regressing a constant (one) on each column of A and |
Under the null hypothesis that the model is correctly specified, nR2 is asymptotically distributed x2 with J degrees of freedom.
References
Aitchison, J. and S.D. Silvey (1957). “The Generalization of Probit Analysis to the Case of Multiple Responses,” Biometrika, 44, 131–140.

References—299
Agresti, Alan (1996). An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Andrews, Donald W. K. (1988a). “Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: Theory,” Econometrica, 56, 1419–1453.
Andrews, Donald W. K. (1988b). “Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: Introduction and Applications,” Journal of Econometrics, 37, 135–156.
Cameron, A. Colin and Pravin K. Trivedi (1990). “Regression-based Tests for Overdispersion in the Poisson Model,” Journal of Econometrics, 46, 347–364.
Chesher, A. and M. Irish (1987). “Residual Analysis in the Grouped Data and Censored Normal Linear Model,” Journal of Econometrics, 34, 33–62.
Chesher, A., T. Lancaster, and M. Irish (1985). “On Detecting the Failure of Distributional Assumptions,”
Annales de L’Insee, 59/60, 7–44.
Davidson, Russell and James G. MacKinnon (1993). Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Gourieroux, C., A. Monfort, E. Renault, and A. Trognon (1987). “Generalized Residuals,” Journal of Econometrics, 34, 5–32.
Gourieroux, C., A. Monfort, and C. Trognon (1984a). “Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory,”
Econometrica, 52, 681–700.
Gourieroux, C., A. Monfort, and C. Trognon (1984b). “Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models,” Econometrica, 52, 701–720.
Greene, William H. (2008). Econometric Analysis, 6th Edition, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Harvey, Andrew C. (1987). “Applications of the Kalman Filter in Econometrics,” Chapter 8 in Truman F. Bewley (ed.), Advances in Econometrics—Fifth World Congress, Volume 1, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Harvey, Andrew C. (1989). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hosmer, David W. Jr. and Stanley Lemeshow (1989). Applied Logistic Regression, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Johnston, Jack and John Enrico DiNardo (1997). Econometric Methods, 4th Edition, New York: McGrawHill.
Kennan, John (1985). “The Duration of Contract Strikes in U.S. Manufacturing,” Journal of Econometrics, 28, 5–28.
Maddala, G. S. (1983). Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
McCullagh, Peter, and J. A. Nelder (1989). Generalized Linear Models, Second Edition. London: Chapman & Hall.
McDonald, J. and R. Moffitt (1980). “The Uses of Tobit Analysis,” Review of Economic and Statistics, 62, 318–321.
Pagan, A. and F. Vella (1989). “Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4, S29–S59.
Pindyck, Robert S. and Daniel L. Rubinfeld (1998). Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 4th edition, New York: McGraw-Hill.
Powell, J. L. (1986). “Symmetrically Trimmed Least Squares Estimation for Tobit Models,” Econometrica, 54, 1435–1460.

300—Chapter 26. Discrete and Limited Dependent Variable Models
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (1997). “Quasi-Likelihood Methods for Count Data,” Chapter 8 in M. Hashem Pesaran and P. Schmidt (eds.) Handbook of Applied Econometrics, Volume 2, Malden, MA: Blackwell, 352–406.