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370—Chapter 15. Super Models

Looking At Model Solutions

Since EViews placed the results CONS_0 and Y_0 in the workfile, we can examine our solution using any of the usual tools for looking at series. In addition, the model object has tools convenient for this task in the Proc menu. Choose Proc/Make Graph… to bring up the Make Graph dialog and click .

The graph window that opens shows the time path for all the variables in our homework model.

Looking At Model Solutions—371

If you prefer to see all the series on a single graph, choose the radio button

Group by Scenario/Actuals/Deviations/etc. in the

Make Graph dialog. To make the graph prettier, we’ve reassigned Y and CONS to the right axis. (See Left and Right Axes in Group Line Graphs in Chapter 5, “Picture This!”)

Comparing Actual Data to the Model Solution

Return again to the Make Graph dialog. This time choose Listed variables, enter Y in the text field, and check the checkbox Compare and choose Actuals on the dropdown menu. Click

Group by Model Variable so that all the GDP data will appear on the same graph. If you’d like, also check

% Deviation: Active from Compare.

372—Chapter 15. Super Models

You can see that we now do a much better job of matching the real data.

More Model Information

Before we see what else we can do with a model, let’s explore a bit to see what else is stored inside.

Model Variables

Click the button to switch the model to the variables view. We see that CONS and Y are marked with an icon, while the remaining variables are marked with an icon to distinguish the former as endogenous from the latter, which are exogenous.

Teminology hint: Exogenous variables are determined outside the model and their values are not affected by the model’s solution. Endogenous variables are determined by the solution of the model. Think of exogenous variables as model inputs and endogenous variables as model outputs.

Model Equations

Equations View

Return to the equations view. The left column shows the beginning of the equation. The column on the right shows how EViews is planning on solving the model: income is a function of consumption, investment,

and government spending; consumption is a function of income and consumption (well,

More Model Information—373

lagged consumption actually).

Hint: How come the equation shows only CONS+I+G? What happened to exports and imports—not to mention that discrepancy thing? In the equation view, EViews displays only enough of each equation so that you can remember which equation’s which. To see the full equation, switch to the text view or look at the equation’s Properties.

Equation Properties

Double-click in the view on to bring up the Properties dialog. As you can see, the model has pulled in the estimated coefficients as well as the estimated standard error of the regression. We’re looking at a live link. If we re-estimated the consumption equation, the new estimates would automatically replace the current estimates in the model.

Hint: The estimated standard error is used when you ask EViews to execute a stochastic simulation, a feature we won’t explore, referring you instead to the User’s Guide.

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