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33
Figure 1: An Average Recession in a Real Business Cycle Model
Output and Consumption
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Quarters From Start of Recession
Output and Investment
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Quarters From Start of Recession
Output and Labor
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Quarters From Start of Recession
Output and Technology Shock
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Quarters From Start of Recession
o = Output
Figure 2: Histogram of Quarterly Growth Rates
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16 More |
Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate of Real GDP (percent)
Figure 3: Correlation between Hours Employed by Industry and Total Hours Employed by Private Sector
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(Monthy Data, 1964.1-2003.4, HP Filtered, λ = 14,400) |
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1.0 |
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Average Correlation: 75 percent |
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Mining |
Construction |
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Manufacturing, |
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Goods |
Nondurable Goods |
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Figure 4: Correlation Between Hours Employed by Industry and Total Hours Employed by the Private Sector
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(Monthy Data, 1964.1-2003.4, HP Filtered, λ = 14,400) |
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1.0 |
Durables Manufacturing |
Nondurables Manufacturing |
Services |
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Average Correlation: 68 percent |
0.8 |
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Mining |
Construction |
Lumber and Wood Products |
Furniture and Fixtures |
Stone, clay, and glass products |
Primary metal industries |
Fabricated metal products |
Machinery, except electrical |
Electrical and Electronic equipment |
Transportation equipment |
Instruments and related products |
Miscellaneous manufacturing |
Food and kindred products |
Tobacco manufactures |
Textile mill products |
Apparel and other textile products |
Paper and allied products |
Printing and publishing |
Chemicals and allied products |
Petroleum and coal products |
Rubber and misc. plastic products |
Leather and leather products |
Transportation and public utilities |
Wholesale trade |
Retail trade |
Finance, insurance, and real estate |
Other Services |
Figure 5: Comovement Across U.S. States
Correlation Between Real Gross State Product and Aggregate U.S. Real GDP
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(Annual Data, 1977-1997, HP Filtered, λ=100) |
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Average Correlation = 0.58 |
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0 |
Alaska |
Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Districtof Columbia Florida Georgia |
Hawaii |
Idaho |
Illinois |
Indiana |
Iowa |
Kansas |
Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada NewHampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York |
North Carolina |
North Dakota |
Ohio |
Oklahoma |
Oregon |
Pennsylvania |
Rhode Island |
South Carolina |
South Dakota |
Tennessee |
Texas |
Utah |
Vermont |
Virginia |
Washington |
West Virginia |
Wisconsin |
Wyoming |
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Figure 6: Comovement Of Different Countries With U.S.
Correlation Between Country Real GDP and U.S. Real GDP
(Annual Data 1960-2000, HP Filtered, λ =100)
0.9
Average Correlation: 46 percent
0.8 |
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Canada |
France |
UK |
Italy |
Japan |
Germany |