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236 Sys te ms Med icine
Age of Onset
gY
Circuit Motifs in the Periodic Table
Number of cells
ø = Cell death
T=Autoimmune T cell
S = Stem cell
h = Secreted molecule s = Signal molecule
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Permanent
11
>10
Front-line
years
Turnover
Secretory
years-months
Barrier
months-days
10
11
SAD
ø
s
10
10
age
x
9
10
8
10
7
10
X= Damage
SD
ø ø
D = Differentiated cell
A =Transit amplifying cell
FIGURE 9.17 Each class of diseases in the periodic table corresponds to a specic cell circuit motif.
D
h
T
s
Dh
SAD
ø
FIGURE 9.18 Age of onset shows patterns in the periodic table of diseases. Disease age of onset
from youngest to oldest ranks as immune hypersensitivity, autoimmune, toxic adenoma, progres­sive brotic and degenerative diseases.
Very
Old
Old
Youn
Old
oung
Total Lifetime Risk by Disease Class
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Very common
40%
Periodic Table of Diseases237
Universal
>90%
Very common
50%
Common
5%,
Rare
1%,
Very
common
10%
FIGURE 9.19 Disease prevalence shows patterns in the periodic table of diseases. Shown are typi-
cal values, some diseases are exceptions.
Current therapy approaches
Permanent
Front-line
years
Secretory
years-months
Barrier
months-days
Surgery, Chemothrapy, Biologics, CAR-T cells Immune checkpoint inhibition
No Cure
Replacement
FIGURE 9.20 Current treatments for each class of diseases.
In this book we described several potential treatment strategies for the future (Figure 9.21). Age-related diseases can be treated by senolytics or other approaches that slow the core drivers of aging (Zhang et al. 2022). is is the Geroscience hypothesis, that many age-related diseases can be treated at once by targeting their main risk factor, aging.
Organ
Hormone
Supplement
Surgical
Removal
Cytokine
inhibitors
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Future therapy discussed in this book
Permanent
Senolytics
FIGURE 9.21 Possible future treatments for each class of diseases discussed in this book.
Front-line
years
Senolytics,
disruption of
Secretory
years-months
Modulate
autoimmune
surveillance
Barrier
months-days
Microenvironment circuit disruption
Progressive brotic diseases may be treatable by disrupting the brosis circuit, such as inhibition of the myobroblast autocrine loop of Chapter 5. is is an example of therapy that aims to modulate ecosystems of interacting cell populations by taking advantage of their most sensitive interactions. An adaptation of this strategy may target the cell popula­tions that make up the cancer microenvironment.
e mutant surveillance theory for autoimmune diseases suggests that the autoimmune surveillance T-cells may have special “license to kill” properties that could make them potential targets for therapy. erapeutic approaches for a given disease could be adapted for diseases that are adjacent on the table.
PREDICTED DISEASES IN THE TABLE
We can continue with the periodic table metaphor and look for unknown diseases which it predicts.
If we see a secretory cell type in the 1–10 g range, we can predict a T-cell-based autoim­mune disease. One place to look is in classes of immune cells that secrete alarm signals (Figure 9.22).
For example, plasmacytoid dendritic cells – pDC cells for short – are the main source of the alarm signal interferon-1, which causes cells to raise their defenses against pathogens. e pDC cells sense pathogens using an innate immune receptor (TLR7), which controls their growth and interferon secretion, in a “secrete-and-grow” circuit (Figure 9.22).
threat
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Periodic Table of Diseases239
pDC
kill
Surveillance
against
hypersecreting
mutant cells
cells
Pathogen
pDC
Pathogen
T
007
Transition to autoimmune
IFN1
sense
disease
alarm
IFN1
B cells
anti-IFN1
antibodies
FIGURE 9.22 A predicted autoimmune disease may explain anti-interferon autoantibodies. A cir-
cuit in which a signal aects both growth and function of an immune cell is fragile to mutants that hyper-sense the signal. ese mutant cells can expand and raise a perpetual alarm. An example is pDC cells that secrete the alarm signal interferon. e autoimmune surveillance theory suggests that T cells can remove hyper-secreting mutant pDC cells by sensing an interferon antigen, with the potential to set o adiseasein which B cells produceanti-interferon autoantibodies.
e pDC cell type is in the 1g range, predicting an autoimmune disease analogous to type-1 diabetes. e surveillance T-cells should target interferon-1 peptides, and in the pre­dicted disease should activate B cells to make antibodies against interferon-1 (Figure 9.22, bottom panel).
Indeed, about 1% of humanity has anti-interferon-1 antibodies. ese individuals have defects in their response to infection, such as an increased risk for severe COVID-19 (Manry et al. 2022).
ere may thus be a yet unnamed T-cell-based autoimmune disease against pDC, as a fragility of surveillance against hyper-secreting pDC clones that would put the body in perpetual alarm (Figure 9.23).
We may predict analogous autoimmune diseases for other types of immune cells. ese diseases may explain the prevalence of anti-cytokine antibodies which are currently a mystery.
Another class of predicted diseases concerns toxic adenomas. If we see a secretory cell type with about 10
8
adenoma, a mutant-expansion disease.
cells (0.1 g) or fewer, we can guess it might show a hyper-secreting
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Permanent
11
>10
11
10
10
10
9
10
Number of cells
8
10
Predicted Diseases
Tu rnover
Years
Front-line
Pancreas
Alpha cells
Predicted toxic adenoma
Years-months
Secretory
Plasma pDCs
Predicted autoimmune disease
Months-days
Barrier
7
10
FIGURE 9.23 Examples of predicted diseases in the periodic table of diseases.
As an example, pancreatic alpha cells are in this range. Alpha cells are in the islets together with beta cells. ey secrete glucagon, the counter-hormone to insulin, which stimulates the liver to produce glucose out of amino acids, raising blood glucose levels.
e periodic table predicts a mutant-expansion disease of alpha cells at old age, caus­ing excess glucagon, perhaps with a prevalence of around 0.1%. e symptoms should be similar to type-2 diabetes: excess glucose. Such expansions might contribute to diabetes in a small fraction of cases.
A brief technical note: the predicted toxic adenomas are distinct from ultra-rare can­cers called neuroendocrine tumors (in this case, glucagonomas). Neuroendocrine cancer is caused by oncogenic mutations that make the cells grow uncontrollably, whereas toxic ade­nomas remain under control of their size-control circuit. e toxic adenoma cells behave like normal endocrine cells responding to high signal, due to the “delusion” caused by their hyper-sensing mutation.
Periodic Table of Diseases241
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Another example is a cell-type in the kidneys that secretes renin, a hormone that
8
raises blood pressure. ere are about 10
such renin-secreting cells in the kidneys, called juxtaglomerular cells. e predicted toxic adenomas should cause hypertension – chronically high blood pressure. ey might explain a small part of this prevalent condition.
is discussion raises the possibility of cell-type-specic diseases that are under the radar. ese diseases go undetected because their symptoms are subclinical in most condi­tions. Or perhaps they go undetected because their symptoms are too similar to a common condition like diabetes, hypertension or obesity. e latter possibility suggests ways to nd new causes for common pathologies, operative in a small number of cases. Such cases may be unresponsive to the standard treatments for these conditions.
e book is almost at its end! To celebrate, let’s take a nice deep sigh of relief. I hope that you enjoyed our journey. We stated basic physiological laws and used them to dene circuit motifs. ese circuits carry out essential functions like organ size control. ey also provide robustness to variations in physiological parameters. However, they have fragilities which are the basis for diseases. e circuits dene disease classes that can be organized in a periodic table. I wonder what additional patterns and unifying principles await to be discovered.
EXERCISES
Exercise 9.1: Comorbidity
Suppose that an individual is susceptible to two age-related diseases In the model of
X
Chapter 8, the diseases have thresholds
a. Is there a predicted order in which the diseases occur in a given individual? b. Design a computational experiment to discern such ordering in a medical dataset
containing the age of onset of diseases in a large number of individuals.
c. What might be confounding factors in such an attempt to discern ordering?
Exercise 9.2: Disease networks
Diseases can be arranged in networks, where two diseases are linked if they share genetic risk factors or phenotypic features (Barabási, Gulbahce and Loscalzo 2010). Compare this approach to the periodic table. What are its main merits?
Exercise 9.3: Female-male prevalence
Most autoimmune diseases in the secretory cell column are more common in females than males (McCombe and Greer 2014). Most toxic adenomas in the same column are also more prevalent in females. Form a hypothesis for how the autoimmune surveillance mechanism of Chapter 4 may contribute to the origin of a higher female prevalence. Note the fact that many of the endocrine glands involved undergo enhanced cell division during pregnancy and female reproductive cycles.
and Xd2.
d1
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Exercise 9.4: Biphasic mechanism
We discussed how plasma dendritic cells (pDCs) may harbor a predicted autoimmune dis­ease. ese cells show an exhaustion mechanism in which they down-regulate themselves if their receptor is activated for long times (Macal et al. 2018). Discuss this in analogy to biphasic mechanisms like glucotoxicity of Chapter 2.
Exercise 9.5: Rare genetic disorders
Read about cell-type-specic diseases caused by mutations in the fertilized egg, such as cystic brosis and Duchenne muscular dystrophy. How would you add them to the table? Do they tend to conform to the disease class of their cell type, or to dierent classes?
Exercise 9.6: Atherosclerosis master exercise
Read about the mechanisms of atherosclerosis. In atherosclerosis, macrophages and other white blood cells accumulate at a point of inammation in the artery wall. ey recruit smooth muscle cells to proliferate and secrete bers in a way analogous to myobroblasts. e macrophages ingest cholesterol-carrying particles (LDL) which get oxidized by the inammatory environment, and these oxidized LDL particles further stimulate inam­mation, macrophage recruitment and macrophage senescence. e upshot is a brous and fatty plaque that can grow and eventually block the artery.
a. Write a cell circuit analogous to the brosis circuit of Chapter 5. b. Explain why LDL levels in the blood are a risk factor for atherosclerosis, and derive a
mathematical expression for this eect.
c. Explain how senescent cells with their inammatory factors could push blood vessels
across a threshold for atherosclerosis.
d. Explain the exponential incidence of vascular disease with age along the lines of the
disease-threshold model of Chapter 8.
REFERENCES
Barabási, A. L., N. Gulbahce, and J. Loscalzo. 2010. “Network Medicine: A Network-Based Approach
to Human Disease.” Nature Reviews Genetics 12 (1): 56–68. doi: 10.1038/nrg2918.
Cagan, A., A. Baez-Ortega, N. Brzozowska, F. Abascal, T.H. Coorens, M.A. Sanders, A.R. Lawson,
L.M. Harvey, S. Bhosle, D. Jones, and R.E. Alcantara. 2022. “Somatic Mutation Rates Scale with Lifespan Across Mammals.” Nature 604 (7906): 517–24. doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-04618-z.
Domínguez-Hüttinger, E., P. Christodoulides, K. Miyauchi, A.D. Irvine, M. Okada-Hatakeyama,
M. Kubo, R.J. Tanaka. 2017. “Mathematical Modeling of Atopic Dermatitis Reveals ‘Double­Switch’ Mechanisms Underlying 4 Common Disease Phenotypes.” Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 139(6): 1861–1872.e7. doi: 10.1016/j.jaci.2016.10.026.
Lako, G., and M. Johnson. 2008. Metaphors We Live By. University of Chicago Press. https://books.
google.co.il/books?id=r6nOYYtxzUoC.
Lei Dai, Kirill S Korolev, Je Gore. 2015. “Relation between stability and resilience determines the
performance of early warning signals under dierent environmental drivers.” 112(32):10056-
61. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1418415112. PMID: 26216946; PMCID: PMC4538670.
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Macal, M., Y. Jo, S. Dallari, A.Y. Chang, J. Dai, S. Swaminathan, E.J. Wehrens, P. Fitzgerald-Bocarsly,
and E.I. Zúñiga. 2018. “Self-Renewal and Toll-Like Receptor Signaling Sustain Exhausted Plasmacytoid Dendritic Cells during Chronic Viral Infection.” Immunity. 48 (4): 730–44. doi:
10.1016/J.IMMUNI.2018.03.020.
Manry, J. et al. 2022. “e Risk of COVID-19 Death Is much greater and Age Dependent with Type
I IFN Autoantibodies.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (21): e2200413119. doi: 10.1073/PNAS.2200413119/SUPPL_FILE/PNAS.2200413119.SD01.DOCX.
McCombe, P. A. and J. M. Greer. 2014. “Sexual Dimorphism in the Immune System.” In e
Autoimmune Diseases, 319–28. Academic Press. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-812102-3.00024-5.
McCombe, Pamela A., and Judith M. Greer. 2020. “Chapter 24 - Sexual Dimorphism in the Immune
System.” In e Autoimmune Diseases (Sixth Edition), edited by Noel R. Rose and Ian R. Mackay, 419–28. Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-812102-3.00024-5.
Sender, R. and R. Milo. 2021 “e Distribution of Cellular Turnover in the Human Body.” Nature
Medicine 27 (1): 45–8. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-01182-9.
Stearns, S.C. and R. Medzhitov. 2015. Evolutionary Medicine – Paperback. Oxford University Press.
Accessed June 26, 2023. https://global.oup.com/ukhe/product/evolutionary-medicine-9781605 352602
Tomasetti, C. and B. Vogelstein. 2015. “Response.” Science 347 (6223): 729–31. doi: 10.1126/SCIENCE.
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Tomasetti, C., L. Li, and B. Vogelstein. 2017. “Stem Cell Divisions, Somatic Mutations, Cancer
Etiology, and Cancer Prevention.” Science 355 (6331): 1330–34. doi: 10.1126/SCIENCE. AAF9011/SUPPL_FILE/TOMASETTI.SM.PDF.
Zhang, L., L.E. Pitcher, M.J. Yousefzadeh, L.J. Niedernhofer, P.D. Robbins, and Y. Zhu. 2022.
“Cellular Senescence: A Key erapeutic Target in Aging and Diseases.” e Journal of Clinical Investigation 132 (15): e158450. doi: 10.1172/JCI158450.
Epilogue
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Simplicity in Systems Medicine
     are when you rst glimpse simplicity in a com-
M
plicated system. Simplicity is beautiful. It also provides ways to understand and eventually modulate nature. Finding simplicity is the bread and butter of physics, but no one guarantees simplicity in biology – cells and organs are far more complex than atoms.
at’s why this book originates in a sense of wonder. e wonder comes because human
biology evolved to function, not to be comprehensible to scientists. ere is no a priori reason why our immensely complicated physiology and its diseases would be understand­able. But still, simplifying principles can be found that make aspects of systems medicine understandable to us.
is epilogue is about simplicity in systems medicine. We will review simplicity in struc­ture and timescales, in the ability to form simplied models, and in the ultimate causes of diseases (Alon, 2003).
SIMPLICITY IN STRUCTURE
One level of simplicity is found in the structure of physiological circuits. ere is a huge number of possible ways that cells can regulate each other; the number of possible cell cir­cuits is therefore very large. e surprise is that organs show only a few types of recurring interaction patterns. We call these recurring patterns circuit motifs, because they appear again and again in dierent organs.
Each circuit motif carries out essential functions, and these functions are universal ­they apply to every organ. e rst function is organ size control. Without size control, cell numbers would grow or shrink exponentially. e secrete-and-grow circuit motif provides size control by binding together cell growth and cell function in the same signal. is signal, in turn, is regulated by the integrated organ functional output. As a result, the cell population is locked into a size that provides proper function.
Another such circuit motif is the stem-cell feedback motif. Feedback from dierentiated cells enhances the rate of dierentiation, to keep both stem cells and dierentiated cells in homeostatic balance.
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ese motifs not only determine organ size they also provide a second crucial function: robustness to variations in physiological parameters. Physiological parameters change from person to person and over time. is includes secretion rates, molecular half-lives, blood volume, and sensitivity of tissues to hormones.
e size control motifs compensate for these variations by changing the organ func­tional mass. is is the principle of dynamic compensation: aer a transient period of days to months in which organ size changes, the size reaches a new steady state in which the system behaves as if the parameters had never changed; not only is the steady-state function preserved, but even the temporal response curves to input stimuli are fully compensated.
Basic circuit motifs are sometimes wired together to produce larger circuits (Adler and Medzhitov 2022). For example, two secrete-and-grow motifs are stacked on top of each other in the HPA axis and the thyroid axis. ese motifs are wired together in a way that preserves their original functions of dynamic compensation and size control. e larger circuits also have new features, including oscillatory responses on the timescales of months.
SIMPLICITY IN MODELS
In addition to the structural simplicity of a small number of circuit motifs, there is a sec­ond level of simplicity. is is the ability to treat circuits with minimal mathematical mod­els that capture the essence of their behavior.
is minimal description is surprising because it contrasts with the complex biochemi­cal mechanisms by which cells carry out their functions. ese biological particulars are astoundingly rich, but the dynamics can be described by mathematical models that do not require exhaustive knowledge of the molecular details. e models require only informa­tion on whether X activates or inhibits Y, and at what threshold.
In these models, graphical tools like phase portraits and rate plots provide a back of the envelope sketch of the behavior and its dependence on parameters. Even if we do not know the precise form of the interactions, we can deduce the existence of bifurcations in which the system changes behavior all at once. Indeed, we saw that many diseases correspond to such bifurcations – diabetes to the crossing of a glucotoxicity threshold, brosis to the crossing of a separatrix in the broblast-macrophage phase plane, and age-related diseases to threshold crossing triggered by accumulation of senescent cells.
ere is a universal principle that helps such modeling: separation of timescales. Circuit motifs combine slow cell growth on the scale of days to months with much faster molecu­lar signals that work on the scale of minutes to hours. erefore, one can safely assume that cell numbers remain constant over the time it takes molecular concentrations to reach their steady states.
With this assumption, the models become far simpler. e number of parameters is reduced, because many molecular rates can be lumped together into a single systems­level parameter, oen the ratio of molecular production and removal rates. As a result, the essence can usually be captured with models that have only one or two dynamical variables. e qualitative behavior becomes clear in one dimensional rate plots and two­dimensional phase portraits.